Welcome to POLITICO’s West Wing Playbook, your guide to the people and power centers in the Biden administration. With help from producer Raymond Rapada. Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Eli | Email Lauren President JOE BIDEN and Chinese President XI JINPING are set to meet face-to-face tomorrow for the first time in a year — a high-stakes convening as global crises bubble over. To break down the challenging meeting — taking place on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in San Francisco — West Wing Playbook called former Sen. MAX BAUCUS, who served as U.S. ambassador to China under President BARACK OBAMA. This conversation has been edited for length and clarity. How big of a deal is this for Biden? There’s a lot of strain on the White House right now. President Biden’s got to show that he can not only deal with Ukraine and the Middle East but also with China. It’s a big deal for President Biden to show to Americans, especially some of the hawks in Congress, that he’s standing tall. That he’s not too soft on China. There’s no shortage of things to address, from Taiwan to the Middle East and Iran. Trade. Ukraine. Anything that tops your list? My big issue — I think it’s a golden opportunity — is fentanyl. There is bipartisan opposition to China, and there’s also a strong bipartisan effort to stop fentanyl. It’s a no-brainer at home, and should be a no-brainer for China. You know the president’s style. How will he approach the hard stuff? Joe Biden is a real decent guy. He cares about doing the right thing. He cares about finding solutions to problems. And he’s gonna convey that. But he also has a little bit of Irish blarney. He’s going to joke a little bit, talk a little bit and try to connect with President Xi in that way. It really comes down to where he draws the line personally. And it’s very important that he stands very tall, and earns the respect of China so that China realizes it can’t push America around. How will we know if Biden accomplishes this? We’ll look to see whether there’s more military pressure from the Chinese in the South China Sea or across the straits. If there’s less of that, that’ll be a positive sign. We watch these meetings so closely, but how substantive are they, really? Frankly, I’ve attended several bilaterals, and there’s a lot of talk. A lot of it is checking the box. Each country is giving its own standard pet position. The real key here is follow-up. Words are easy. It’s deeds that count. [Commerce Secretary Gina] Raimondo, for example, said during her trip that they set up these working groups — the Commerce Department and her counterpart in China. I just rolled my eyeballs frankly. We’ll see if they work or not. What about this relationship makes it so hard? The United States talks about high fence and small yard. The Chinese don’t believe it. The United States talks about, “Oh we’re just imposing export controls targeted at your military, but not trying to slow down your economy.” They don’t believe it. The Chinese believe that the United States is trying to stop China’s rise. And many in the U.S. are trying to stop China’s rise. Then on the other side of the coin, Americans don’t know what China’s endgame is. Does China want to be the hegemon in the Asia Pacific? Do they want to go farther than that? I asked that question of the Chinese constantly, and I never got a good answer. So, it’s all about trust. This is corny, but it’s kind of like an arranged marriage. We don’t love each other, but the question is, how well do we accommodate each other? There’s no divorce, so it makes a lot more sense to try to accommodate than not. MESSAGE US — Are you XI JINPING? We want to hear from you. And we’ll keep you anonymous! Email us at westwingtips@politico.com. Did someone forward this email to you? Subscribe here!
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