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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters this afternoon that “we are closer than we’ve been” to a deal. | Win McNamee/Getty Images | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Jordain Carney, Paul McLeary, Daniel Lippman and Kierra Frazier It sure looks like there’s going to be an Israel-Hamas hostage deal as soon as today. As Alex and LARA SELIGMAN report, the U.S. has brokered an agreement to free roughly 50 hostages held by Hamas in Gaza in exchange for Israel releasing about 150 Palestinians from prison. Fighting will pause for four to five days, allowing safer transit for hostages and easier delivery of humanitarian aid during that period. A deal could fall apart at any time, U.S. officials insist, noting nothing is finalized until a formal announcement is made. And even then, something could trip up the arrangement like Hamas opening fire against Israeli troops around hospitals in Gaza. Still, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters this afternoon that “we are closer than we’ve been” to a deal. Reports indicate that the hostages will be Israeli and dual nationals, all of them women and children. Release of the hostages could lead to the first sustained pause in fighting since Hamas militants launched a surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people. That would allow a significant increase in the amount of humanitarian assistance flowing into Gaza, where hundreds of thousands of civilians have been living for weeks without food, water and power. The language from officials involved in painstaking talks turned optimistic in recent days shifting from “close” to “closer” to, basically, it’s gonna happen. "Nothing is done until it's done," President JOE BIDEN told reporters today, adding that he'd spoken recently to Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU as well as the emir of Qatar. "But things are looking good at the moment." Although Netanyahu last week agreed to short, four-hour pauses in fighting to allow humanitarian assistance to flow into the enclave, he has strongly rejected the idea of a sustained cease-fire. The Biden administration agrees with Israel that a cease-fire would only help Hamas reconstitute itself. But concern about the 239 people believed to be in captivity in Gaza, as well as about the dire humanitarian situation and rising civilian death toll in the enclave, increased pressure to act. Biden has also been feeling the heat. Democrats in the House and Senate are pushing to condition military aid to Israel, with some calling for a full cease-fire, as the death toll mounts. What’s unclear, though, is if the potential hostage deal will make progressive-minded Dems change course in the days ahead, at least for a little while. "If there are no bombings for five days, the goal would be to turn that temporary respite into a longer-lasting cessation,” a Democratic staffer on the Hill said, granted anonymity to detail an evolving dynamic. “There will continue to be pressure and momentum to revert to long-term cessation to deal with humanitarian crisis.”
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Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | MORE IRANIAN ATTACKS: American forces killed several Iranian-backed militants in Iraq early today in retaliation for a ballistic missile attack on Al-Asad Airbase the night before, an assault which injured eight U.S. troops and caused minor damage to the base, a Pentagon spokesperson told our own PAUL McLEARY. The targeting of the militants marked the third time the U.S. has struck back at the militant groups in Iraq and Syria since they began attacking U.S. bases in the two countries on Oct. 17, Pentagon spokesperson SABRINA SINGH said, though she noted this was the first U.S. strike that “wasn’t planned.” The previous two American retaliatory strikes targeted ammunition depots and staging areas, while the one today came from a U.S. AC-130 gunship that was already airborne and was able to track the source of the missile attack. The aircraft hit “an Iranian-backed militia vehicle and a number of Iranian-backed militia personnel involved in this attack,” Singh said. “This self-defense strike resulted in some hostile fatalities.” There have been roughly 66 attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria from Iranian-backed groups that have injured over 60 U.S. troops, not including those wounded Monday. IRAN-RUSSIA MISSILE COLLAB? The U.S. is concerned that Iran may be preparing to send short-range ballistic missiles to Russia in its war against Ukraine, U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal’s MICHAEL GORDON. Tehran has already provided Moscow with armed drones, guided aerial bombs and artillery shells, officials said. But Iran showed its Ababil and Fateh-110 missiles to Russian officials during a visit to the Middle Eastern country in September, raising the possibility of wider military cooperation between the two. “We are therefore concerned that Iran is considering providing Russia with ballistic missiles for use in Ukraine,” a National Security Council spokesperson told WSJ. SULLIVAN’S LIVE AID: Humanitarian organizations met privately with national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN on Monday to discuss ways to alleviate the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza, two people familiar with the meeting told Alex and ERIN BANCO. The six groups in attendance requested the conversation to present their view that only a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas would make it safe enough for assistance to reach those in need. Sullivan reiterated the administration’s position that a cease-fire is not an option, prompting the exchange to center around other steps the administration could pursue. One of the people said that Biden’s team is looking for short-term solutions to improve humanitarian conditions in the Hamas-run enclave. The other, though, said “what we’re talking about, there’s nothing creative about it. It’s just the stuff that’s more meaningful than the status quo, but nowhere in the ballpark of sufficient.” PYONGYANG’S LAUNCH PARTY: Yesterday, we wrote about how South Korea really doesn’t want its northern neighbor to launch its spy satellite. That’s too bad, North Korean officials said today. Pyongyang’s space officials claimed they had successfully launched the Malligyong-1 satellite into orbit today, The Associated Press’ MARI YAMAGUCHI and HYUNG-JIN KIM report, though the claims couldn't be independently verified. It would be a big win for North Korea if confirmed, since the country failed in two previous recent attempts to send up the satellite, which could bolster the regime’s war readiness. It also breaks a U.N. Security Council resolution banning Pyongyang from launching spy satellites. IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here. | | | | | | | | CHRISTIE’S LACK OF CONDITIONS: GOP presidential candidate CHRIS CHRISTIE bashed Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) for his call to put restrictions on future military assistance to Israel. Sanders said aid should be contingent on a commitment to peace talks for a two-state solution and the end of the Israeli blockade or occupation of Gaza, among other measures. Under Sanders’ proposal, the U.S. would withhold further aid “unless there is a fundamental change in their military and political positions.” “For someone like Senator Sanders, they have a hard time running Congress. Maybe they should not be spending their time trying to run another government,” Christie said on Fox News this morning. “The fact is, this is wartime, and it is difficult. And I have confidence in the Israeli defense forces to be able to do the job the right way.” DESANCTION IRAN: On a related note, fellow GOP candidate and Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS said he would sanction Tehran so that its government cannot fund allied groups, like Hezbollah and Hamas, that have threatened Israeli forces. “With Iran, ultimately, we're gonna deep-end their entire economy with our sanctions and they're not going to be able to fund Hezbollah and Hamas like they have,” he said during a Newsmax town hall Monday night.
| | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — DETAILS ON SURVEILLANCE PROGRAM: A long-running, but little-known, phone records surveillance program is coming under scrutiny on Capitol Hill. Our own JORDAIN CARNEY got a peek at a forthcoming letter that Rep. ANDY BIGGS (R-Ariz.), who wields a Judiciary subcommittee gavel, is sending to the White House, raising concerns about the program, known as the Data Analytical Services, and requesting a trove of details by November 29. The surveillance dust-up comes as Congress is preparing for a separate, much larger end-of-year deadline on reauthorizing a measure known as Section 702, which is meant to target foreigners abroad but has drawn scrutiny because of its ability to sweep in Americans. And Biggs used his letter to RAHUL GUPTA, the director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy, which reportedly funds the DAS program, to make the case for using that debate to push surveillance reforms that “go far beyond just Section 702 of FISA.” "The Hemisphere Project highlights major loopholes in federal law through which the government is able to spy on Americans without judicial oversight, such as the purchase of personal data," Biggs wrote. How broad the upcoming 702 debate should be is a point of contention, with some wanting to keep it focused on the surveillance authority that will otherwise expire at the end of the year, as well as reforms to the surveillance court and the larger Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. But Biggs and Sen. RON WYDEN (D-Ore.) — who sent his own letter to the Justice Department this week on the DAS program — are part of a bipartisan gang that rolled out a sweeping bill earlier this year that seeks to dramatically expand the scope of the upcoming debate. WINTER CYBER PREP: Ukraine has imported custom-built U.S. equipment designed to withstand Russian electronic warfare attacks over the winter, potentially offering a lifeline to the country’s energy grid, CNN’s SEAN LYNGAAS reports. American tech giant Cisco spent weeks testing the equipment in Texas before sending it aboard a U.S. plane carrying humanitarian aid, the company said. About $1 million worth of the hardware kits, which worked through Russian attacks on Kyiv’s GPS systems, have been installed across the country. The pizza-box-sized tech “allows an electric substation — which has the crucial task of converting power from high to low voltage — to communicate with other parts of a power grid. Critically, these switches needed to be outfitted with their own internal clocks … giving grid operators visibility even when GPS systems are down,” Lyngaas writes.
| | | | GET A BACKSTAGE PASS TO COP28 WITH GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Get insider access to the conference that sets the tone of the global climate agenda with POLITICO's Global Playbook newsletter. Authored by Suzanne Lynch, Global Playbook delivers exclusive, daily insights and comprehensive coverage that will keep you informed about the most crucial climate summit of the year. Dive deep into the critical discussions and developments at COP28 from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | UKRAINE’S WISHLIST: Kyiv wants short-range radars from the U.S. for the holiday season as officials there brace for a difficult season of Russian missile strikes against civilian sites and energy infrastructure, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report. Specifically, Kyiv is looking for Sentinel short-range radars that are designed to track ballistic missiles, slower-moving drones and fixed- and rotary-wing aircraft — and a lot in-between, a person familiar with the U.S.-Ukraine discussions told Paul. The request — though a far cry from the Abrams tanks, F-16s and Army Tactical Missile Systems that have led the list since the start of the war — is critical to getting through the winter, Ukraine says. The new radars would provide more coverage for parts of the country being battered by daily Russian strikes, and could be used to protect factories where Ukrainians intend to build their own weapons, rather than import them, once they enlist the help of Western defense firms.
| | FIVE EYES ON AI: Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wisc.) and Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.) introduced a bill today that would direct Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN to create a working group to develop an artificial intelligence initiative within the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance. The Five AIs Act would allow the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom, New Zealand and Canada to compare and test advanced AI systems; identify ways to collaborate on AI for intelligence sharing; and compare ethical frameworks to speed up the advancement of AI tech. Such a measure could help prevent China from “weaponizing AI to advance their military ambitions and perfect their repressive techno-totalitarian surveillance states,” Gallagher said in a statement. With support from one of the most hard-line Republicans when it comes to China and a progressive Democratic lawmaker, it’s likely the bill would see wide support in Congress if taken up. MERKLEY’S CEASE-FIRE: Sen. JEFF MERKLEY (D-Ore.) became the second senator to call for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas on Monday, joining Sen. DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.). “I have called for humanitarian pauses to facilitate negotiations for the release of hostages, the movement of Palestinians in Gaza to identified safe zones, the departure of foreign citizens who wish to leave, and the massive distribution of food, water, medicine, and fuel by accredited international aid organizations for essential purposes like water desalination, ambulances, and hospitals,” Merkley wrote in a Medium post. He argued a pause lasting "weeks" would be needed to accomplish these objectives, and no less.
| | | |   | | | | | RESETTLE PALESTINIANS? Israel's intelligence minister called for the resettlement of Palestinians out of Gaza, a position an Israeli official said doesn’t reflect the standing of the rest of the government. One option to achieve peace in the region following the war is to “promote the voluntary resettlement of Palestinians in Gaza, for humanitarian reasons, outside of the Strip,” GILA GAMLIEL wrote in a Jerusalem Post opinion piece Monday night. That idea came after she railed against the possibility of the Palestinian Authority taking control of Gaza after the war is over: “This option … has failed in the past and will fail again. It is an option that is seen as illegitimate by the Israeli public and one that would put us back to square one within a short amount of time.” The Israeli government’s official position doesn’t align with the op-ed, an Israeli official told Alex. “Rather, this stance of Minister Gamliel is her personal opinion,” said the official, granted anonymity to push back on a senior government official. “It is important to note that Minister of Intelligence Gamliel is not a member of the War Cabinet and is therefore not a part of the deliberations or the decision-making process on this matter.” ZELENSKYY’S NINE LIVES: Ukraine’s President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said he has survived five or six assassination attempts from Russia since the war began — and the Kremlin wants him gone by the end of the year. The latest campaign to remove him is codenamed Operation Maidan 3, Zelenskyy told The Sun late Monday. That’s an apparent reference to Ukraine’s 2014 Maidan Revolution, during which protesters toppled the Moscow-friendly President VIKTOR YANUKOVYCH. “It means to change the president,” Zelenskyy said. “Maybe it’s not by killing, I mean it’s changing — they will use any instruments they have.”
| | — SIMON BRINKMANN JØNLER is the new military legislative assistant to Rep. ROBERT ADERHOLT (R-Ala.), handling his portfolio for the appropriations subcommittee on defense. He was previously the congressional adviser for defense at the British Embassy in D.C. — Maj. GRACE GEIGER is now a personnel and readiness desk officer in the public affairs office of the Office of Secretary of Defense. She most recently worked for the secretary of the Army.
| | — COLIN CLARKE and MICHAEL KENNEY, POLITICO: Hamas is not ISIS — and the comparison itself is counterproductive — Rep. JOE COURTNEY, Defense News: U.S. submarine production rate will not hinder AUKUS — LINA KHATIB, Foreign Policy: The future of Hamas passes through Tehran
| | — Broadband Breakfast, 12 p.m.: Artificial intelligence one year after ChatGPT Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who never pauses her fights with us. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who negotiates our deals with Emma.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
