SHUFFLE SCUTTLEBUTT — There's not a lot of work getting done in ministers' offices today. Cabinet members and their staff await the final decisions of Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU and his team as they reshape the Liberal bench. — What we know: Mental Health Minister CAROLYN BENNETT told reporters yesterday that she won't seek another term in office. Multiple sources told CBC News that Transport Minister OMAR ALGHABRA informed the PM he doesn't intend to seek another term. Both will likely be dropped from Cabinet, two key components of this week's shuffle. Lobbyists fill out spreadsheets. Journalists work the phones. Only an inner circle knows every detail of what's to come, though some ministers and their top aides have insight into what's next for them. LOST IN THE SHUFFLE — Ask a ministerial staffer who’s been caught in a Cabinet shuffle, and they'll tell you about the 30-day countdown that starts ticking the moment their boss is moved up, over, down or out. Staffers receive a clinical letter from the federal bureaucracy notifying them that their shuffled minister is no longer their boss, and that their employment will run out after 30 days. Former Liberal staffer JENI ARMSTRONG cites the rules. This week's musical chairs will leave dozens of staffers in limbo, curious and anxious about where they'll work when ministers have plopped into new seats. Or if they'll have a job at all. The bigger the shuffle, the greater the scope of uncertainty and the more livelihoods at stake. These aren't tense days for junior staff alone. Almost everybody's job is up in the air in one way or another. — Been there: MARC ROY, a VP at Sandstone Group, survived his share of shuffles. He worked for ministers dating to the Chrétien era, and served a three-year stint as then-transport minister MARC GARNEAU's chief of staff. These days, vacancies on the Hill are common. An eight-year-old government constrained by minority rule always faces recruitment challenges. A job doesn't get much more unstable than that. That reality should give some comfort to senior aides. But only some. "Experienced political staff should feel pretty safe," Roy tells Playbook. "However, a shuffle is a time to mix things up. It's a lot of uncertainty. That makes a lot of new ministers and new staff happy, but also disappoints and breaks a lot of people's hearts at the same time." — Three options: A typical staffer might end up following their minister to a new portfolio, staying put to offer continuity to a new boss, or leaving the Hill entirely, severance package in hand. It's often not up to them. → Continuity is key: A skill set can be currency as the government reassembles its small army of policy wonks, parliamentary experts, operations junkies and communications specialists. The Prime Minister's Office — aka “The Center” in Hill vernacular — doesn't call all the shots in a staffer shuffle. But the PM's team definitely intervenes strategically. A staffer with a breadth of policy expertise or trusted stakeholder relationships might be asked to stay put — a steady hand to guide an incoming minister, especially a rookie one with scant experience in the world of Cabinet. Most offices operate a regional desk, a team that monitors and cultivates issues and stakeholders in B.C., the Prairies, the North, Ontario, Quebec or Atlantic Canada. An existing team that can bolster an incoming Cabmin's bonafides — say, a westerner with a dearth of insight into Quebec — might remain in place. "That can be imposed," says Roy. "There is thought being given almost immediately, sometimes simultaneously at The Center, to ensure the success of the new ministers or the ministers in their new portfolios." → Walking past the exit sign: If the shuffle is the end of the road for a staffer, they can take severance. The value of that package varies based on their years of service on the Hill, calculated at two weeks’ pay for each year, prorated in partial years. They may receive separation pay, at the discretion of the former minister. If they end up working for a minister again in the near future, they may have to repay part of that severance. Not so if they enter the private sector. In that case, the exit money is all theirs. → Shuffles energize the winners: Aides who work for rising stars and benefit from their boss's promotions could be spared the typical anxiety — and, well, excited about the future. — The upshot: Some ministers are more active on HR files, others delegate to their chiefs of staff. The PMO takes keen interest in certain spots, but defers to offices in others. It all depends on personalities, hot files, skill sets, ambition, fatigue and bench strength. — The last word: "Shuffles make my stomach hurt," PATRICK ROGERS, a former Tory Hill staffer, writes on LinkedIn. "I think shuffles are significantly more important to the day-to-day machinery of government than what is usually reported about 'resets' and 'new directions.' But I also think shuffles are at their core sad." One reason: "The overwhelming majority of current staffers will still be staffers, but not without some sleepless nights. Some will choose to leave voluntarily, while others will be disappointed by only lateral options. But a couple will be simply out of luck and their time on the Hill will end." Rogers' last word on shuffle day: "Think about the staff caught up in the tide." Related reading: For iPolitics, former staffer RACHEL RAPPAPORT writes about the anxiety staffers feel when they have no control over what's next.
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