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Kimberly Leonard's must-read briefing on what's hot, crazy or shady about politics in the Sunshine State | | | | |  | | By Kimberly Leonard | |  The Cinderella Castle is seen at the Magic Kingdom at Walt Disney World on July 14, 2023. | John Raoux/AP Photo | Good morning and welcome to Monday. Strikes, layoffs, box office failures and the succession question. The ongoing legal and political fight with Gov. Ron DeSantis is just one of many trials facing The Walt Disney Co. That’s one reason why Wall Street and plenty of business analysts and media reporters are theorizing that the entertainment behemoth could offload certain offerings, split up or sell altogether. Any major moves would almost certainly muddle Disney’s legal battle in Florida and propel a flurry of activity in Tallahassee. When Comcast tried to buy Disney in 2004, Florida elected officials panicked and had the legislature's research arm study what would happen if a new owner controlled the special tax district. The decades-old findings showed few drastic changes would occur — but back then, the district's power hadn’t been usurped by a hostile governor and the company wasn’t anywhere near as large as it is today. Selling the whole company to a new owner would shock Florida, especially since Disney CEO Bob Iger said during the most recent earnings call that the parks were among the company’s offerings slated to “drive the greatest growth and value creation over the next five years.” Plus, Disney has said it plans to invest $17 billion in Florida over a decade (though it recently nixed a $1 billion development plan in Orlando and will shutter its underperforming Star Wars-themed hotel.). Yet Iger already indicated in July that he’s open to selling TV networks that “may not be core” to the company. In an earnings call a few weeks later, he refused to “speculate” about a Disney full-on sale, saying executives didn’t “obsess about” it. Company representatives did not respond to requests for comment. “Obviously any sale of Disney would have ripple effects,” Democratic state Rep. Anna Eskamani, who represents the area where Disney World is located, said in an interview. While she doubted Disney had any plans to part with its lucrative parks and cruises businesses, she said if the company were to break off pieces then she’d want to know what the impact would be on the workforce, such as potential layoffs. One thing is clear: Disney isn’t easing its legal challenges in Florida, despite DeSantis telling CNBC he’d “basically moved on” and the district board he appointed asking a state judge to rule quickly, without trial, in its lawsuit against the entertainment giant. On Friday, Disney filed a breach of contract claim against the board DeSantis appointed to run its special tax district, and demanded the court award the company an unspecified amount in damages. Looking ahead: If Disney sells to Apple (unlikely) or another big company, maybe even after the 2024 presidential election, then federal regulators would surely get involved (Iger pointed to the "global regulatory environment" when asked about a potential sale during the most recent earnings call). The Biden administration has pushed back on mega mergers and DeSantis might have a similar approach if he were to become president, given his history with Disney. DeSantis’ team didn’t respond to inquiries about Disney, and DeSantis himself ignored a question about the possibility of a sale during an appearance in Atlanta on Friday. Note: The Central Florida Tourism Oversight District is meeting Wednesday morning. — WHERE'S RON? Gov. DeSantis is doing a debate send-off party in Fort Walton Beach, Fla. Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for Playbook? Get in touch at: kleonard@politico.com | | | | DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO APP: Stay in the know with the POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID. | | | | | |  Republican presidential candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, center, signs an autograph during a fundraising event for Rep. Ashley Hinson, Aug. 6, 2023, in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. | Charlie Neibergall/AP Photo |
DRIVING THE WEEK — The first Republican presidential debate is Wednesday in Milwaukee, Wis. Tonight DeSantis is doing a debate send-off in Fort Walton Beach, something former President Donald Trump’s campaign is already mocking to The Messenger as “sad.”
The pressure is on for DeSantis to deliver a strong debate performance to turn his 2024 campaign around. The governor has distanced himself from the debate memo the Never Back Down PAC put out last week, saying, according to The Hill, that he hadn’t read it. His campaign previewed its own debate strategy for donors, first reported by Axios, saying his team was prepared for DeSantis to be at the center of attacks and "on the receiving end of false, desperate charges from other candidates and the legacy media.” The memo went on to say that he wouldn’t get into fights with rivals onstage but would instead work to present a “contrast.” On debate night, Trump is will do some counter-programming, a tapped interview with Tucker Carlson, NYT reported. Though former Vice President Mike Pence thinks Trump might show after all, Trump shot down the idea on Truth Social Sunday night. DeSantis has criticized Trump over his decision to play hooky. “I think everyone should debate if you qualify,” he said at the Gathering conservative conference in Atlanta this weekend. “You owe it to the people to put your vision and talk about your record.” ALSO ON TAP THIS WEEK — Trump has to surrender at the Fulton County Jail in Georgia no later than Friday, following an indictment that alleges the former president and more than a dozen others tried to subvert the 2020 election results. Related: In Georgia, Trump indictment casts shadow over Republican 2024 hopefuls, by POLITICO’s Kimberly Leonard |  | Transitions | |
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Florida Democrats have hired Kristellys Estanga as the group’s new voter registration director. Estenga, who is Venezuelan American, has 15 years of experience in campaigns, organizing and advocacy, including with state Rep. Michele Rayner, former Florida Rep. Carlos Guillermo Smith, former state Attorney Aramis Ayala and Tallahassee City Commissioners Jeremy Matlow and Jack Porter.
Nikki Fried, the party’s chair, said the hire was an example of how Democrats were "expanding our field operations with a dedicated focus on voter registration." ON THE HILL — Nick Adams has been promoted to be legislative director for Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Fla.). He most recently was senior legislative assistant for Lee. | | | ... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ... | | | STATE COFFERS — Florida’s budget surplus is still there, but will likely be smaller, by POLITICO’s Gary Fineout: Economists drew up a new forecast that shows Florida’s main budget account is expected to wind up with $2.77 billion more than anticipated between now and 2025. At the same time, economists are expecting a 3.5 percent decline in overall tax collections in the current fiscal year — which runs until next June 30 — due to tax cuts and a slowdown of spending that had been associated with Hurricane Ian recovery efforts. One big notable change in the new estimates: State economists no longer anticipate a recession in their forecast, a factor that caused them to temper the last round in March. TRANS CARE — Florida fines companies for violating gender-affirming coverage ban, by POLITICO’s Arek Sarkissian: The Florida Agency for Health Care Administration fined four Florida insurance companies for violating an agency rule that prohibits the use of Medicaid dollars to cover prescription drugs and surgeries associated with transgender medicine. ON HOLD — “Excessive wait time for Latinos in Florida is 'locking families out' of Medicaid,” by WLRN’s Verónica Zaragovia: “Spanish speakers in Florida wait an average of 2.5 hours for help via the state's Medicaid call center, based on calls made in July and August. English speakers wait an average of 36 minutes.” ED FUNDING — Florida universities again seek millions for building upkeep, by POLITICO’s Andrew Atterbury: In a budget request set to be considered later this month, the state university system’s Board of Governors is considering a push for $357 million. The BOG also is pursuing $50 million in additional funding for “preeminent” universities, a sign that another school could be joining the ranks of Florida’s top-performing colleges. BACK TO SCHOOL — “Florida teachers are on edge over history and gender-identity policies,” by the Wall Street Journal’s Joseph De Avila: “Teachers in Florida said a wave of recent educational-policy changes has sown confusion and chaos, creating fresh concerns for educators struggling to navigate through a new academic year. Disputes over new African-American history standards, Advanced Placement Psychology and new restrictions on calling a student by their preferred name also have many teachers on edge.’” — “South Florida schools shrink LGBTQ guides, and restrict pronouns and bathroom rules,” by the South Florida Sun-Sentinel’s Scott Travis — “At New College orientation, students express hope and hesitation,” by Tampa Bay Times’ Divya Kumar — “Florida’s jobless rate at 2.7%, first uptick since January,” by News Service of Florida’s Jim Turner — “Florida lawmakers urge NOAA to enhance coral rescue efforts,” by the Sun-Sentinel’s Bill Kearney — Florida malaria cases baffle experts, by POLITICO’s Mia McCarthy | | | | Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of the first episodes in September – click here. | | | | | | | DESANTISLAND | | OLD ALLEGATIONS RE-EMERGE — “‘I could sell golf’: How DeSantis and aides courted lobbyists for campaign cash,” by Washington Post’s Isaac Arnsdorf and Josh Dawsey: The fundraising provided "a special pathway of access for wealthy donors to the governor that is striking in the way that it was documented in writing, ethics experts said. The golf-related fundraising was part of a broader push by DeSantis to cultivate relationships with big contributors, some of whom have received state appointments or benefited from state policies, as The Post has previously reported.” SCHOOLED — “How Ron DeSantis joined the ‘Ruling Class’ — and turned against it,” by The New York Times’ Nicholas Confessore: “Educated at Yale and Harvard Law, he spent his early adulthood energetically climbing into the American elite. An examination by The New York Times reveals how Mr. DeSantis, genuinely embittered by his experiences at elite institutions, also astutely grasped how they could be useful to him. He now offers voters a revisionist history of his own encounters with the ruling class to buttress his arguments for razing it — and for remaking public education itself.” — “Ron DeSantis doubles down in New Hampshire amid signs of trouble,” by The Messenger’s Trent Spiner
| | CAMPAIGN MODE | | NOT DON OR RON — “Big GOP donors push for Trump alternative,” by Axios’ Barak Ravid and Alex Thompson: “Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp are getting secret overtures from establishment Republicans — and haven't ruled out running.” — “‘To the left of zero:’ Chris Christie’s Miami visit underscores weak GOP support,” by The Messenger’s Marc Caputo — MAGA world lashes out over DeSantis’ ‘listless vessels’ remark, by POLITICO’s Andrew Zhang: “A movement can’t be about the personality of one individual,” DeSantis said. “If all we are is listless vessels that’s just supposed to follow, you know, whatever happens to come down the pike on Truth Social every morning, that’s not going to be a durable movement.” — “Drag queen makes historic run for office to bring ‘voice to the voiceless’ in Florida politics,” by Pink News’ Maggie Baska | | ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN | |
BIRTHDAY: Washington Post’s Manuel Roig-Franzia, author of “The Rise of Marco Rubio.”
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