Also: TikTok ad spending, recession odds, and Gen Z's office push
Good morning.
The last few years have been tough for restaurants. But Chipotle CEO Brian Niccol turned adversity into virtue, engineering one of the great business turnarounds of our times. In 2015, Chipotle became the punchline of jokes after a heavily publicized E. coli outbreak. But since Niccol took over in 2018, the company’s revenues are up 77%, and the stock price is up almost 400%. One of his pro moves: a second kitchen for takeout, to preserve the in-restaurant experience as takeout boomed.
Fortune’s Phil Wahba does a deep dive into Niccol’s success, and looks at the challenges he now faces, in the new issue of Fortune magazine. You can read his story here.
And since it is Friday, some feedback. J.J. writes in response to yesterday’s post on layoffs:
“Your focus in today’s letter is on HOW you fire people, but really I believe the how isn’t nearly as important as the WHO. In my experience, layoffs can actually have a positive effect on morale if you target the people who are not pulling their weight and/or are toxic cultural detractors.“
And this from S.M.:
“For the last 23yrs, Tech has been ‘potential led.’ The ultimate measure for whether you are truly a ‘potential led’ tech company is hiring. As a result, they hired like drunken sailors and they were rewarded by the stock market.
Now we have entered into the ‘performance led’ world and in this world nobody cares about moon shots anymore. In fact, even sling shots are evaluated for some return.“
More news below. And here’s an interesting take on tech layoffs, from someone who’s been in the game.
Alan Murray
@alansmurray
alan.murray@fortune.com
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No ban? No problem.
Despite facing a possible U.S. ban and its CEO being questioned by Congress, American companies such as Pepsi, Amazon, Apple, and DoorDash increased their ad spending on TikTok by 11% in March, making TikTok an essential part of their advertising strategy. Investment bank TD Cowen expects TikTok's ad revenue to hit $36 billion by 2027, assuming it avoids getting banned. Fortune
Recession odds increase
Jamie Dimon stated in an interview with CNN that the banking crisis is making a U.S. recession more likely, as lenders are tightening credit by reducing lending and becoming more conservative. This echoes his comments in the annual letter to shareholders, where he acknowledged that the market's expectations have changed due to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the emergency sale of Credit Suisse to UBS. Dimon cautioned against overreacting by imposing more rules on the industry, but acknowledged that the crisis will cause some tightening of financial conditions as banks and lenders become more conservative. Bloomberg
Gen Z’s office push
The Morning Consult's 2023 State of Workers report indicates that fewer American workers are now working remotely, with 63% of employed adults currently doing most of their work in person, up from 60% in 2022. While 27% of those surveyed said they prefer to work remotely, only 23% currently do so. In the study, ~90% of Gen Z workers cite productivity as the reason why they prefer going into the office. Fortune
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Nurturing and measuring stakeholder trust According to research by Deloitte, trustworthy companies outperform their peers in market value by up to four times, and 88% of customers will return to buy from a brand they trust. How might leaders and boards earn, nurture and measure stakeholder trust to drive financial performance and reputation? Read more
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