2022 is looking quiet. Too quiet.

From: POLITICO California Playbook - Monday Jan 24,2022 02:18 pm

Jan 24, 2022

By Jeremy B. White, Chris Ramirez and Graph Massara

Presented and Paid for by the Coalition for Clean Air

THE BUZZ — THE SILENT MINORITY: California’s 2022 gubernatorial election might as well be subtitled, “All Quiet on the Western Front.”

We’re officially in a gubernatorial campaign cycle — indeed, we’re now closer to the March filing deadline for the June primary than to last September’s recall — but you wouldn’t know it from surveying the landscape. No prominent Republican has announced plans to challenge Gov. Gavin Newsom. Top recall vote-getter Larry Elder has bowed out of a rematch, Assemblymember Kevin Kiley is preoccupied with a run for Congress, and Republicans John Cox and Kevin Faulconer haven’t reported raising money for months (if Faulconer runs at all).

Newsom’s resounding recall win is lost on no one. The Democratic incumbent crushed the recall attempt by double digits — by the same margin, down to a decimal point, as his 2018 landslide victory. You don’t need to run a campaign firm or hold a political science degree to look at those numbers and conclude that Newsom has cemented his overwhelming frontrunner status as he seeks a second term.

Money is an overriding consideration for Republican hopefuls. Newsom was sitting on $24.5 million at the end of June and has since collected at least $500,000 more, including from boldfaced corporate names like Google and Warner Bros. A viable statewide opponent would need to raise significant sums — and quickly — to compete. Faulconer has been gauging donors’ appetites, and his consultant told us the former San Diego mayor is unlikely to run unless he’s confident tens of millions of dollars will materialize behind him.

But the Republican donor class isn’t exactly energized. We repeatedly heard phrases like “burned out” and “worn out” after the recall fizzled. With much of the focus on competitive House races and potentially more promising statewide contests for attorney general and controller, one prominent GOP donor told us she nearly forgot the governor was also on the ballot. “I haven’t paid any attention to it,” she said.

It’s not as if California has been completely copacetic under Newsom’s continued leadership. Homelessness and high housing costs continue to vex elected officials, and Newsom himself channeled voters’ frustration last week by saying the state he leads resembles a “third-world country.” But while those concerns may ripple down-ballot and buoy Republicans in what looks to be a good year for the GOP, California’s top job isn’t looking too contested. Here’s Jeremy’s story on how the GOP gubernatorial field is frozen in an uneasy state of suspension.

BUENOS DÍAS, good Monday morning. Congrats to both 49ers and Rams fans after wins guaranteed another LA-SF playoff showdown. Speaking of the homestretch, it’s do-or-die week in the Legislature for bills introduced last year. That means highly anticipated Assembly floor votes for single-payer health care, which now carries a revenue requirement; an evictions bill; and revived labor-priority legislation regulating the fast food industry. Complicating the picture: Democrats are down four members thanks to resignations and appointments.

Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit jwhite@politico.com or follow me on Twitter @jeremybwhite.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “It could get a whole lot worse — we see that. The actions of other states to block access and punish women who choose to have an abortion and their providers, it represents really the worst kind of threat for all of us. … We won’t stand for it. In the Legislature, we’re introducing bills to protect and expand abortion access.” Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins marks the 49th anniversary of Roe v. Wade with Newsom and other elected officials.

TWEET OF THE DAY: Sports reporter @BNightengale on another California playoff clash: “It was the #Dodgers and #SFGiants in the #MLB playoffs 3 months ago. It’s now the #Rams and #49ers for the right to go to the Super Bowl. Nothing like the LA-SF rivalry”

WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

Paid for by the Coalition for Clean Air:

Thank you, Governor Newsom, for California’s Climate Commitment! What state lawmakers do next will decide if we preserve a safe, equitable and healthy future for all or leave behind a damaged state to our children. Learn more.
Paid for by the Coalition for Clean Air.

Top Talkers

— “ Jeffrey told me his story of addiction and recovery. Then the Tenderloin pulled him back and he found fentanyl,” by the SF Chronicle’s Heather Knight: “He seemed to represent the failure of San Francisco to effectively intervene — either with people addicted to drugs or with the swarms of dealers preying on them — as people die in shocking numbers. More than 700 people died of drug overdoses in San Francisco in 2020, and an additional 650 died last year, most from fentanyl, a synthetic drug so poisonous, just crumbs can kill.”

— “Crypto Crash Erases More Than $1 Trillion in Market Value, ” by Bloomberg’s Vildana Hajric: “For Bitcoin, there’s only been one constant recently: decline after decline after decline. And the superlatives have piled up really quickly.”

UNDER INVESTIGATION — “ State investigators say man killed by police at San Francisco International Airport had replica gun,” by the Mercury News’ Rick Hurd: “Police did not have any comment Friday but said they will address the shooting at an upcoming town hall. On Thursday, they said that meeting would be within 10 days, at which point more details including dispatch records and video footage likely will be released.”

— “ Arnold Schwarzenegger involved in four-vehicle crash in Brentwood,” by the LA Times’ Gregory Yee and Seema Mehta: “Schwarzenegger was not injured and stayed at the scene, his spokesman said.”

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SCHOOL SHIFTS: The prospects of an education-heavy 2022 ballot are looking slimmer. Proponents are pushing to 2024 a proposal to enshrine a constitutional right to quality education, Jeremy reports . Teachers unions are watching that initiative because it could have launched legal battles over teacher employment, like the landmark lawsuit that initiative proponent David Welch championed . And an initiative campaign to divert education dollars into voucher-like school savings accounts, partially led by former Trump administration official Richard Grenell, halted last week. A similar voucher push funded almost entirely by Redlands physician Dale Broome is still gathering signatures.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — BREED’S CAVALRY: The organization Grow SF is wading into a power struggle between Mayor London Breed and the board of supervisors, aiding a campaign against a proposal from Supervisors Aaron Peskin and Connie Chan that would transfer mayoral appointment authority to supes and make recalls tougher to qualify. It is launching a “No B.S.” spot that echoes Breed inveighing against the “bullsh– that has destroyed our city” — watch it here . Grow SF is also a major backer of the S.F. school board recalls, which Breed has also endorsed.

— “ Does L.A. want a billionaire mayor? Rick Caruso is trying to find out,” by the LA Times’ Benjamin Oreskes and Julia Wick: “A picture emerged of a man who is serious about running for mayor in part because he believes the city he loves is in a perilous position, and he can present a different way of running government — even if he hasn’t been steeped in the specifics of how to tackle a crisis like homelessness.”

SORIA’S SHOT: Democratic Fresno City Council member Esmeralda Soria announced she’s running for the 27th Assembly district. That ended speculation Soria would run for Congress after unsuccessfully challenging Rep. Jim Costa from the left in 2020.

CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR

SNOW DAY — “‘Shouldn’t Have to Make This Decision’: Thousands of Contra Costa Students Stay Home, Citing Omicron Fears,” by KQED’s Julia McEvoy: “The district – which covers the cities of Richmond, San Pablo, El Cerrito, Pinole and Hercules and enrolls some 27,000 students – reported 737 student and 70 staff COVID cases from Jan. 11-14. But even students who are not positive or quarantining are choosing to remain at home, out of fear they will be next to get the virus.”

LONDON BRIDGE… “ Rare, ‘terrifying’ winter Big Sur fire burns down to iconic Highway 1 bridge,” by the Mercury News’ Julia Prodis Sulek, Shomik Mukherjee and Jason Green: “The wind-driven Colorado Fire that burned 1,050 acres of mostly coastal chaparral had calmed as winds died late Saturday morning, and by Saturday evening, Cal Fire said the blaze was about 20% contained. Initial reports from the fire agency said more acreage had burned, but better mapping led to a changed figure later Saturday.”

— “ Recology Pulls Plug on Ballot Measure after Threat of Losing SF Trash Monopoly,” by the SF Standard’s Michael Barba: “Recology stopped gathering signatures Thursday to place a measure on the June ballot, which would have included some—but not all—of the reforms being proposed by city officials. This means a moderate reform package will likely be the measure put before voters this summer instead of a more aggressive option.”

BIG NAMES ON CAMPUS — “ How Sacramento’s Democratic Tsakopoulos family landed pro-Trump college for campus project,” by the Sac Bee’s Dale Kasler: “The residential development has sparked accusations that the entire project was a stalking horse for suburban sprawl. With Hillsdale aboard, the project has taken on an intriguing political dimension as well.”

DECISION TIME — “ Los Angeles weighs phasing out oil and gas drilling,” by the AP’s Drew Costley: “Air pollution from oil fields in Los Angeles disproportionately affects areas that are predominantly Latino or Black, said Martha Dina Argüello, executive director of the Los Angeles chapter of Physicians for Social Responsibility.”

NIMOC? — “ Amid housing crunch, officials want Orange County to stay the way it is,” by the LA Times’ Hannah Fry: “The argument is about how many units of new housing each city should be required to accommodate. It is also about the essence of Orange County, which is becoming more racially diverse, more politically liberal — and more crowded.”

TAKE THIS JOB — “ Why are CA politicians ditching public office, going nonprofit?” opines KCRW’s Joe Mathews: “Over generations, California has constructed a complicated governing system that prizes limiting the power of our public officials. Interest groups then fill the void, writing legislation themselves, and sponsoring ballot measures that impose their preferred formulas on taxation and spending.”

AT THE SOURCE — “ A bitter feud centers on source of Arrowhead bottled water,” by the LA Times’ Ian James: “After nearly seven years of fighting against the extraction of water, activists say they hope California regulators will finally order BlueTriton Brands — the company that took over bottling from Nestlé last year — to drastically reduce its operation in the national forest.”

Paid for by the Coalition for Clean Air:

CASHING IN — “ At Hunters Point, Former Mayor Willie Brown Cashes in Even as Massive Development Project Remains Stalled,” by the SF Standard’s Matt Smith: “Newly unearthed public records show that Five Point Holdings, the company with the rights to develop the shipyard, paid more than $1.3 million during 2020 to a consulting firm called Shipyard Advisors that consisted of Brown and two partners.”

ANOTHER ONE — “ Starbucks workers at Santa Cruz store file union petition, joining a national push,” by the LA Times’ Suhauna Hussain: It’d be “the first California store to join a growing national push to organize baristas and shift supervisors at the coffee giant.”

BACK TO THE FUTURE — “ San Francisco’s Chinatown is caught between past and future, ” by the LA Times’ Christopher Reynolds: “Storefronts on Grant Avenue aimed at selling Chinese souvenirs or luxury goods to Western tourists, while Stockton Street served mostly Chinatown residents, many of them recent immigrants living in high-density upstairs apartments and struggling to keep above the poverty line.”

— “ After concerns of racism in home appraisals, what will it take to fix the $156 billion racial housing gap?” by the SF Chronicle’s Lauren Hepler: “As it stands, local fair housing attorneys say the appraisal process can amount to “present-day redlining,” because of how non-white residents are still disproportionately locked out of the wealth that favorable home financing can provide.”

YOU’RE HIRED — “ Inland police forces gain officers who flee vaccine mandates, ” by the Press Enterprise’s Brian Rokos.

BIDEN, HARRIS AND THE HILL

ANNUAL REVIEW — “ Alex Padilla’s first year in the Senate saw stalemates on his two most personal issues,” by the SF Chronicle’s Joe Garafoli: “Padilla remains confident that some parts of the legislation — namely around increased funding for child care — can be enacted as part of a smaller package. Padilla also met frustrating dead ends on issues that are, as he likes to say, personal to him — voting rights and immigration.”

PAY DAY — “ Biden’s $15 minimum wage hike for federal agencies goes into effect,” by The Hill’s Alex Gangitano: “The higher wage will impact 70,000 workers from mainly the Defense Department, Department of Agriculture and Department of Veterans Affairs, according to OPM.”

SILICON VALLEYLAND

MONEY MOVES — Facebook’s lobbying spending surged to a record in 2021, by POLITICO’s Emily Birnbaum: In 2021, the company reported lobbying on topics including the antitrust legislation moving through the House and Senate, along with content moderation, election integrity, blockchain policy and much more.

— “ Tech’s Latest Disruption Target: San Francisco’s Board of Education, ” by the SF Standard’s Anna Tong: “Tech workers say the Board of Education recall has prompted an awakening about local politics.”

— “ Twitter shakes up its security team,” by NYT’s Mike Isaac and Kate Conger: “[Parag] Agrawal, who was appointed Twitter’s chief executive in November, has shuffled the company’s executives since taking over from Jack Dorsey, a founder.”

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HOLLYWOODLAND

— “ Virtual Sundance. Weak box office. Is streaming the only hope for indie film?” by the LA Times’ Ryan Faughnder: “Most living room TVs and sound systems don’t replicate the movie house experience, but for many, they’re good enough.”

— “ 72 hours of work for free? ‘Just, no,’ say dancers and critics of Super Bowl halftime show,” by the LA Times’ Jessica Gelt: “Field cast participants — aspiring dancers, actors, singers and musicians recruited from local drill teams as well as theatrical, community and athletic groups — are expected to be grateful for the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, but the situation is causing a stir in the dance community after dance artist and activist Taja Riley posted about it to her 110,000 followers on Instagram.”

CANNABIS COUNTRY

IN A HAZE — Big Weed is on the brink of scoring big political wins. So where are they? by POLITICO’s Hailey Fuchs and Natalie Fertig: Industry lobbyists and legalization advocates say the movement has been stymied by a lack of consensus on the legislative strategy. Liberal advocacy groups are pushing for a comprehensive overhaul of federal cannabis policies with the aim of helping people harmed by criminal enforcement, while industry groups are seeking any piecemeal policy victory that could provide momentum toward more sweeping changes.

MIXTAPE

— “The Charismatic Developer and the Ponzi Scheme That Suckered San Diego,” by Bloomberg’s Chris Pomorsky.

— “ ‘We are broken’: Elk Grove holds vigil for police officer Tyler Lenehan, killed in crash,” by the Sac Bee’s Darrel Smith.

— “ Man with history of mental illness, criminal record charged in Brianna Kupfer’s murder,” by the LA Times’ Richard Winton and Nathan Solis.

— “ Amy’s Kitchen employee calls for ‘immediate action’ from Cal/OSHA at Santa Rosa production plant,” by the Press Democrat’s Andrew Graham.

— “ Marin Brewing Company Closing at the End of the Month, After a Nearly 33-Year Run,” by the SFist’s Joe Kukura.

— “ Maskless attendees cause school board meeting to abruptly end,” by the OC Register’s Roxana Kopetman.

— “ More officers added to East Oakland, ” by the SF Chronicle’s Ricardo Cano.

— Colorado Fire: Winds expected to ease on Sunday as containment increases to 35%,” by the Mercury News’ Jakob Rodgers.

IN MEMORIAM

— “ Stand-up comic and actor Louie Anderson, Emmy-winning ‘Baskets’ star, dies at 68,” by the LA Times’ Christie D’Zurilla and Nardine Saad.

TRANSITIONS

John Weber is now deputy director of speechwriting for Speaker Nancy Pelosi. He most recently was national press secretary and political media strategist at the AFL-CIO, and is a DNC and EMILY’s List alum.

BIRTHDAYS

SUNDAY: Former L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa … former Rep. Joe Baca … Instagram’s Adam Mosseri … Missy Foxman of the Entertainment Software Association

Paid for by the Coalition for Clean Air:

Thank you, Governor Newsom, for California’s Climate Commitment!

This decade offers a narrow window of time - our last chance - to fight polluters and prevent irreversible damage to California caused by climate change and air pollution. Such high stakes make Governor Gavin Newsom’s California Climate Commitment so important. It’s an unprecedented $37 billion action plan to:

• Protect Californians from the extreme effects of climate change
• Lead the world in reducing carbon and air pollution
• Ensure that those most harmed by climate change, often communities of color, are empowered to fight for climate justice.

What state lawmakers do next will decide if we preserve a safe, equitable and healthy future for all or leave behind a damaged state to our children. Learn more.

Paid for by the Coalition for Clean Air.

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