California’s big cities shrink

From: POLITICO California Playbook - Friday Mar 25,2022 01:22 pm
Presented by CVS Health: Jeremy B. White’s must-read briefing on politics and government in the Golden State
Mar 25, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO California Playbook

By Jeremy B. White, Chris Ramirez, Juhi Doshi and Graph Massara

Presented by CVS Health

THE BUZZ — CALEXODUS?California is a national leader in both population and population loss.

No other state matches California’s roughly 40 million residents. But that number may have peaked: The Golden State registered its first estimated population loss in modern times, and anemic growth before that already cost California a House after decades of expansion. New census numbers illuminate how the Covid-19 era sustained the shrinkage: Several of California’s major counties and urban hubs were among the hardest hit.

The contraction was not unique to California. Deaths outpaced births in the vast majority of U.S. counties between summer of 2020 and 2021 — a sharp increase from the preceding 12-month period, as the pandemic ended many thousands of lives prematurely. And some of the superlative California figures reflect the sheer size of counties here. But a deeper dive into the numbers still reveals how California stands out for the number of areas that bled residents.

By percentage, San Francisco shriveled at the second-highest rate of any county, and San Mateo was fifth. The Bay Area — including dense cities like San Francisco, Oakland and Berkeley — saw the second-highest rate of decline of any metro area in the nation. In terms of sheer numbers, enormous Los Angeles County lost more residents than any other county in America, and Orange County and San Diego County were in the top 10 (though none cracked the top 10 percentage-wise).

Some of that is attributable to mortality rates eclipsing birth rates, and some of it has to do with international migration evaporating during the pandemic: California was home to more than two-fifths of the counties that saw fewer people moving in from abroad, which tends to be a key factor in offsetting other forms of population loss. But some of the drop was due to people moving out or deciding not to move in. The Los Angeles area and Bay Area both saw huge exoduses, and both saw significantly more people leave than in the prior year.

That isn’t all people forsaking California for Texas, despite the CalExodus narrative of dysfunction and decline. Sometimes it means residents steering their moving trucks to lower-cost areas where they can better afford to buy a house. The Sacramento area and the Central Valley actually saw more people flow in than in the prior year. Riverside County gained residents, too; the greater Riverside-San Bernardino area landed among the top national growth centers.

As the pandemic recedes, some of these trends could change. The death rate should recede, reopened offices will draw back remote workers and immigration may rise again. But there are dynamics unrelated to the coronavirus — principally the high cost of living in California’s core metro areas — that are pushing people elsewhere. That matters for representation and fiscal allocation, but it also matters for the story California politicians can tell about the state and its trajectory.

BUENOS DÍAS, good Friday morning. Thursday featured two familiar developments in California’s gas price relief debate: Republicans tried and failed to force a vote on repealing a gas tax, and Gov. Gavin Newsom threw out a new idea: some sort of “means testing” tied to the value of vehicles. Let’s see what today brings.

Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit jwhite@politico.com or follow me on Twitter @jeremybwhite. 

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “The greatest adversity young Black kids today face is by other young Black kids. Statistically, mathematically, it’s a slam dunk. Who trashes the schools? The same kids … Today, [activists are] running around saying that [law enforcement are] slave catchers. We don’t have the same perspective in the Latino community.” Los Angeles Sheriff Alex Villanueva talks race and policing with the LA Times’ Gustavo Arellano.

TWEET OF THE DAY: Rep. Ted Lieu @tedlieu on a Supreme Court justice’s spouse saying the Bidens would face military tribunals for alleged ballot fraud: “This stuff from Ginni Thomas is crazy shit.”

WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

A message from CVS Health:

Throughout the pandemic, in California and communities across the country, CVS Health has been there. We’ve opened more than 4,800 COVID-19 test sites, administered 41 million tests and given 59 million vaccines. We’ve expanded access to prenatal and postpartum care via telemedicine, increased remote access to mental health services and invested in affordable housing to help build healthier communities. We’ve been on the frontlines, making health care easier to access and afford. Learn more.

 
Top Talkers

NOT WHAT IT SEEMS — “Internet entrepreneurs far from the U.S. are inflaming political division on Facebook to sell T-shirts and coffee mugs,” by the SF Chronicle’s Nazmul Ahasan: “Some have diverted followers to digital donation sites organized by real protesters, others to ‘content mills’ filled with pay-per-click ads.”

COMEBACK — “The Return of the Machine Gun,” by The Trace’s Alain Stephens and Keegan Hamilton: “In recent years, these small metal or plastic devices have exploded in popularity on the black market and gained a particular cachet among criminals and anti-government extremists.”

A CLOSER LOOK — “L.A. County panel launches investigation into Sheriff’s Department ‘deputy gangs,’ ” by the LA Times’ Alene Tcheckmedyian: “The move represents a major step in efforts to scrutinize deputy cliques that have existed inside the department for decades and been linked to allegations of violence and corruption.”

 

SUBSCRIBE TO NATIONAL SECURITY DAILY : Keep up with the latest critical developments from Ukraine and across Europe in our daily newsletter, National Security Daily. The Russian invasion of Ukraine could disrupt the established world order and result in a refugee crisis, increased cyberattacks, rising energy costs and additional disruption to global supply chains. Go inside the top national security and foreign-policymaking shops for insight on the global threats faced by the U.S. and its allies and what actions world leaders are taking to address them. Subscribe today.

 
 
CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR

EXTENDED STAY — “California lawmakers propose extending eviction protections,” by the AP’s Adam Beam: “State law says tenants cannot be evicted as long as they have an application pending for rental assistance. But that law is set to expire on March 31.”

READ FOR FILTH — “Auditor blasts California regulators who oversee wildfire safety at PG&E, other utilities,” by the Sac Bee’s Dale Kasler: “In particular, Tilden criticized the Energy Infrastructure Safety agency for approving the three utilities’ wildfire mitigation plans even though their plans contained ‘Class A deficiencies — the most serious type of deficiency.’”

MORE THAN COW FARTS — “California set off a biofuel boom — but can it manage the fallout? ” by the LA Times’ Evan Halper: “California’s climate policies are pushing demand for these biofuels to a place that is sending tremors through the nation’s agriculture economy. The state is trying to strike a balance between hitting its own climate targets while avoiding actions that propel global warming elsewhere.”

DEEP DIVE — “ Is San Francisco's Chesa Boudin really the most 'radical' district attorney in America?” by SFGATE’s Eric Ting: “An analysis from the San Francisco Chronicle found that Boudin has increased diversion rates for assault, robbery and drug cases and decreased convictions of the same crimes.”

THE CULPRIT — “ Column: Christian nationalists are behind LGBTQ+ laws. California isn’t immune,” by the LA Times’ Anita Chabria: “Identities and ideas that only a few years ago were foreign to the mainstream now have currency, such as the growing acceptance that sexuality is a spectrum or the increasingly common practice of people choosing their pronouns. But those changes come with confusion, even for the well-meaning. And confusion is always fertile ground for those who seek to sow dissent and fear.”

SO, WHAT NOW? — “A California city shot down a housing proposal. Now the state is threatening legal action,” by the Sac Bee’s Lindsey Holden: “The complex would feature 41 units for low income residents, and the developer was seeking affordable housing exemptions from Encinitas’s building height requirements and other standards, the Union-Tribune reported.”

OUT OF LUCK — “Nonprofit loses $8 million in funding following internal controversies, ” by the Mission Local’s Yujie Zhou: “The cut on Wednesday occured on the same day that La Raza’s Board of Directors released a statement reporting that ‘a third-party workplace investigations specialist’ and ‘an outside accounting auditor’ had cleared Medina of any charges.

 

Advertisement Image

 
BIDEN, HARRIS AND THE HILL


— “Biden administration announces asylum system overhaul: What you need to know,” by the LA Times’ Andrea Castillo: “Asylum seekers will now have their claims heard by an asylum officer with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services within several months, if the plan works as intended, instead of waiting years for a final determination from an immigration judge.”

— “This Oakland native captured what might be the most iconic image from Ketanji Brown Jackson’s confirmation hearings ,” by the SF Chronicle’s Ryce Stoughtenborough.

SILICON VALLEYLAND


— “E.U. Takes Aim at Big Tech’s Power With Landmark Digital Act,” by NYT's Adam Satariano: “The legislation is aimed at stopping the largest tech platforms from using their interlocking services and considerable resources to box in users and squash emerging rivals, creating room for new entrants and fostering more competition.”

HOLLYWOODLAND


— “Everything you need to know about the 2022 Oscars, from hosts to nominees to drama,” by the LA Times’ Nardine Saad. 

 

DON’T MISS POLITICO’S INAUGURAL HEALTH CARE SUMMIT ON 3/31: Join POLITICO for a discussion with health care providers, policymakers, federal regulators, patient representatives, and industry leaders to better understand the latest policy and industry solutions in place as we enter year three of the pandemic. Panelists will discuss the latest proposals to overcome long-standing health care challenges in the U.S., such as expanding access to care, affordability, and prescription drug prices. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
MIXTAPE


— “Criminal inquiry into former Windsor mayor closed, charges decision pending,” by the SF Chronicle’s Alexandria Bordas and Cynthia Dizikes.

— “Burglar ransacks Oakland Post newspaper, but it shouldn’t stop weekly edition,” by the Mercury News’ Rick Hurd.

— “ What makes a ‘good school?’ Families share their reasons for choosing OUSD,” by the Oaklandside’s Ashley McBride.

THEY’RE BAAA-CK … “ Watch the return of hundreds of goats on fire-prevention duty in West Sacramento,” by the Sac Bee’s David Caracio.

A message from CVS Health:

At CVS Health, we’re more than 300,000 caring employees ensuring Californians and millions of Americans can access health care services.

We have been offering COVID-19 vaccines at more than 9,600 CVS Pharmacy locations nationwide.

Nothing should stand in the way of mental health and well-being, so we have been increasing remote access to mental health services.

We have been supporting safer pregnancies and expanding access to prenatal and postpartum care via telemedicine.

Recognizing the strong connection between housing and health, we have been investing in affordable housing to support underserved populations and build healthier communities.

Every day, CVS Health works to bring quality, affordable health care into neighborhoods, homes and hands—so it’s never out of reach for anyone.

Healthier Happens Together. Learn more.

 


CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this -only service offers, click here.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

 

Follow us on Twitter

Jeremy B. White @JeremyBWhite

POLITICO California @politicoca

 

Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family

Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook

View all our political and policy newsletters

Follow us

Follow us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Instagram Listen on Apple Podcast
 

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://www.politico.com/_login?base=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings

This email was sent to by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA

Please click here and follow the steps to .

More emails from POLITICO California Playbook

Mar 24,2022 01:27 pm - Thursday

Dems’ midterm slump continues

Mar 23,2022 01:20 pm - Wednesday

Batman vs. Prop 47

Mar 22,2022 01:22 pm - Tuesday

Deciding Republicans’ fate

Mar 17,2022 01:10 pm - Thursday

A brutal new poll for Boudin

Mar 16,2022 01:17 pm - Wednesday

How long will Newsom’s Covid emergency last?

Mar 15,2022 01:05 pm - Tuesday

Gas prices fuel action in Sacramento