What’s the deal with California’s low voter turnout?

From: POLITICO California Playbook - Thursday Jun 09,2022 01:16 pm

Jun 09, 2022

Presented by California Environmental Voters

THE BUZZ: We’re still waiting on the results from several closely-watched races, but one thing was clear following Tuesday’s primary election: California voters weren’t excited.

It wasn’t a complete surprise. Midterm years without a presidential election or competitive governor’s race at the top of the ticket tend to garner a less-than-impressive showing at the polls. As of Wednesday night, only 19 percent of ballots had been returned, but when all is said and done, that number is likely to be closer to 27 percent, according to Paul Mitchell, who's vice president of Political Data Inc. and has been keeping a close eye on returns.

(Speaking of those close races, counties still have hundreds of thousands of ballots left to tally, so be careful about making any sweeping declarations until at least the end of the week, when we can expect a big update.)

Mitchell cautioned that Tuesday’s turnout, while low, is looking pretty typical for such an election. Voters had been particularly motivated the last few cycles, with Donald Trump and the pandemic driving people to the polls. But this year is more similar to 2014 — another midterm cycle without a president on the ballot where the California governor (then, Democrat Jerry Brown) cruised to reelection without much competition.

Turnout in 2014 was just above 42 percent of registered voters, higher than what’s anticipated this year, but we should note that the pool of registered voters is also higher this year thanks to automatic voter registration at the DMV, which went into effect in 2018. So while the percentage of voter turnout may look low, the overall gross number of voters is likely to be higher than 2014.

Conventional wisdom tells us that turnout will be higher in November, merely as a mechanism of more national attention and social pressure. But it’s still going to be a point of concern for Democrats in California, especially those in competitive House races. A low turnout could mean serious trouble for those like Rep. Katie Porter in CA-47, who is facing a tough challenge in November (speaking of Porter, the National Republican Congressional Committee just bought $500,000 worth of fall airtime to support her opponent, Republican Scott Baugh).

So what’s a Democrat to do in the face of low voter turnout?

Give voters a reason to show up. In the absence of a competitive race at the top of the ticket, ballot initiatives have been known to motivate the electorate. There’s a few that have already qualified , including a referendum on the flavored tobacco ban and an amendment to legalize sports betting on tribal lands. Another pending initiative, to raise the minimum wage to $15/hr, could also drive turnout.

But a new amendment, introduced Wednesday, could be a serious boon to Democrats if it makes it on the ballot. Senate Constitutional Amendment 10 would make California the first state in the nation to explicitly enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution. As POLITICO’s Victoria Colliver reports, SCA 10 follows up on the promise made by legislative leaders after POLITICO obtained and published a Supreme Court majority draft opinion that would overturn Roe v. Wade.

The amendment is backed by Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins (D-San Diego), Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon (D-Lakewood) and Gov. Gavin Newsom. At a press conference last month, Atkins said the point of the measure is to protect abortion access, but if it also happens to drive up turnout, that’s OK, too.

“I hope it boosts turnout,” she said in May. “But that’s not why we’re doing this.”

BUENOS DÍAS, good Thursday morning. Speaker Anthony Rendon and Assembly member Robert Rivas are having their first meeting today since agreeing to get together and work on a leadership transition. Stay tuned.

Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit us up jwhite@politico.com and lkorte@politico.com or follow us on Twitter @JeremyBWhite and @Lara_Korte.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “This is the nightmare scenario… A lot of people thought that they would have a chance to win. So they jumped in, but they split the votes and that’s unfortunately what can happen.” Joseph Day, chairman of the Stanislaus County Republican Party, after six Republicans split the vote for a state Senate seat, sending two Democrats to the runoff, via David Taub at GV Wire.

TWEET OF THE DAY: An apparently indefatigable Alex Vassar @AlexCVassar: “Good news everyone! Only 153 days until the 2022 General Election!”

WHERE’S GAVIN? In Los Angeles for the Summit of the Americas, where the governor is set to meet with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

A message from California Environmental Voters:

Governor and Legislature: stand with our kids! Your choices in this year’s state budget can save California from a future plagued by deadly drought, wildfires, and heat waves. Invest California’s record budget surplus in climate solutions now. The governor’s $47.1 billion proposal is unprecedented but only 3% of spending over 5 years. We need at least $75 billion invested in a Climate Courage Budget. The choice is yours. Our kids’ future is at stake.

Top Talkers

— “California man in custody after he said he wanted to kill Justice Brett Kavanaugh,” by the Washington Post’s Devlin Barrett, Dan Morse and Ellie Silverman: “The man apparently did not make it onto Kavanaugh’s property in Montgomery County but was stopped on a nearby street, these people said.”

— With Roe likely to fall, California lawmakers move to enshrine it in their constitution , by POLITICO’s Victoria Colliver: It follows up on the promise made by legislative leaders after POLITICO obtained and published a U.S. Supreme Court majority draft opinion to overturn Roe v. Wade, the landmark decision protecting the right to abortion.

— “ Apathy, Not Law and Order, Was the Big Winner in California's Primary,” by New York Mag’s Ed Kilgore: “The idea that the primary showed a state convulsed with reactionary tough-on-crime sentiment is an overreaction to what actually happened on June 7.”

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CAMPAIGN MODE

LA LOOKAHEAD— “News Analysis: Voters liked Caruso's 'can-do' message. How far will he get in November?” by the Los Angeles Times’ Dakota Smith: “Developer Rick Caruso’s showing in the mayoral primary Tuesday demonstrated that a significant number of Angelenos want immediate changes on homelessness and aren’t turned off by the vast fortune of a billionaire who has never held elected office.

LOCKED IN— “After primaries, California takes on unique role in battle for control of Congress ,” by the LA Times’ Melanie Mason and Seema Mehta: “Their hope lies in exploiting political mismatches — districts that backed President Biden in 2020 but have a Republican member of Congress — and California offers more of these opportunities than anywhere else in the country.”

BREAKDOWN — “ Chesa Boudin recall: Map of how each S.F. neighborhood voted reveals the one key reason for his ouster,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susie Neilson and Nami Sumida: “While turnout for Tuesday’s election was low across the board, areas where Boudin had lower support in 2019 turned out in higher numbers relative to neighborhoods that supported him.”

— “ Biden reacts to Chesa Boudin getting recalled in San Francisco,” by SF Gate’s Alec Regimbal: “‘It's time states and the localities spend the money they have to deal with crime, as well as retrain police officers, as well as provide for more community policing,’ [Biden] added. ‘And that's what I think the message last night from the American public was in all the primaries.’”

THE SHOW MUST GO ON — “Can London Breed pull off a high-wire act? Boudin recall puts spotlight on mayor balancing public safety with reform,” by the SF Chron’s Rachel Swan, J.D. Morris and Megan Cassidy: It only took hours for the successful recall of San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin to become a high-wire act for Mayor London Breed, who now has to balance calls for safety with a push to reinvent institutions as she prepares to appoint Boudin’s replacement.”

— “Mayor Breed Weighs In on DA Recall: ‘This Does Not Mean That Criminal Justice Reform in San Francisco is Going Anywhere’ ” by the SF Standard’s Sophie Bearmand and David Sjostedt: “‘…to be clear, sometimes accountability means rehab. Sometimes accountability means community service. It is not just about law and order and tough on crime and locking people up and throwing away the key.’”

CHEN FOR CHANGE? — “ Lanhee Chen is either the great Republican hope to win statewide in California, or he's 'fool's gold',” by the SF Chron’s Joe Garofoli: “State controller candidate Lanhee Chen is giving Republicans hope that he can do something the GOP hasn’t done since 2006: win statewide office in California.”

— “ Why Anne Marie Schubert’s political gamble for California attorney general likely backfired,” opines the Sacramento Bee’s Editorial Board : “It didn’t matter that Schubert had more relevant experience and greater credibility than her Republican opponents to serve as California’s attorney general. Her support from law enforcement leaders, unions and crime victims wasn’t enough. Her office’s prosecution of the Golden State Killer case, her lawsuit against the state over the early release of inmates, her leadership on the unemployment fraud task force — the first wave of primary results made it clear that not identifying as a Republican was an obstacle she struggled to overcome.”

A message from California Environmental Voters:

CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR

ESSAY — “How San Francisco Became a Failed City,” by Nellie Bowles in the Atlantic: “The reality is that with the smartest minds and so much money and the very best of intentions, San Francisco became a cruel city. It became so dogmatically progressive that maintaining the purity of the politics required accepting—or at least ignoring—devastating results.”

— They pour drinks. They clean rooms. Latin American workers wish they had more say at Summit of the Americas,” by the LA Times’ Cindy Carcamo: “Domestic and foreign dignitaries from across the Western Hemisphere are delivering speeches and brainstorming big ideas behind closed doors under heavy security, while Latin American immigrants, and their latter-generation U.S.-born children, form the infrastructure that keeps the conference humming.”

— “Single-use plastic items to be banned from national parks, public lands,” by the SF Chron’s Dustin Gardiner: “Tourists and residents flocking to some of San Francisco’s most iconic landmarks like the Golden Gate Bridge and Lands End soon won’t have access to disposable plastic items, such as water bottles, straws or shopping bags.”

— "UC Hastings law school, tribal leaders discuss reparations,” by CalMatters’ Sindhu Ananthavel: “The meeting of the two groups was the latest development in a years-long process to redress violence committed against Indigenous Californians by the college’s founder, Serranus Clinton Hastings. The law school isn’t just getting a new name: Under a bill now pending in the Legislature, it would also make reparations to tribes affected by Hastings’ actions.”

AN UNLIKELY FRIEND — "Automakers side with California in lawsuit over climate change, tailpipe emissions ,” via the Sacramento Bee’s Dale Kasler: “On Tuesday, in a brief filed in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, five automakers rallied to California’s defense, saying the state’s tough mandates are helping them transition to an era of electric vehicles.”

— “ At The Summit Of The Americas, Leaders -Including CA Governor- Double Down On Methane Pledges To Ease Climate Crisis,” by the LAist’s Erin Stone: “Newsom touted the economic power of California, which he said has allowed the state to invest more than most other states — and nations — in climate initiatives He discussed the $47 billion he’s putting towards climate initiatives here in California over the next two years.”

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BIDEN, HARRIS AND THE HILL

HARROWING — 'I don't want it to happen again': Texas school shooting survivor pleads with Congress , by POLITICO’s Juan Perez: Miah Cerrillo smeared blood on herself to hide from the shooter, she said via a video recording piped into the panel’s chambers. Then she grabbed her dead teacher’s phone and dialed 911. “I don’t want it to happen again,” she said.

— House Republicans dig in as Dems pass gun package, by POLITICO’s Jordain Carney: With House Democrats having passed a sweeping gun reform package Wednesday and senators working on an elusive compromise, House Republicans are on a totally different page — sounding the alarm on attempts to “destroy the Second Amendment.

SILICON VALLEYLAND

— “In reversal, Twitter plans to comply with Musk’s demands for bot data,” by WaPo’s Elizabeth Dwoskin: “The move aims to end a standoff with the billionaire, who has threatened to pull out of his $44 billion deal to buy Twitter unless the company provides access to data he says is necessary to evaluate the number of fake users on the platform.”

MIXTAPE

— “Mexican megachurch leader faces more than 16 years in prison,” by the Associated Press’ Brian Melley.

— “How Gender Neutral Language Is Shaping the Fight for Abortion Rights,” by the New York Times’ Michael Powell.

— Hot mess: There's a problem with Trump's Air Force One paint job, by POLITICO’s Lee Hudson and Lara Seligman.

RIP EVA — “ Dog who rescued owner in Northern California mountain lion attack dies from injuries,” by the SF Chronicle’s Sarah Ravani

— “Bob Saget’s Los Angeles Home Lists for $7.765 Million ,” by the Wall Street Journal’s Sarah Paynter.

— “Small rectal cancer drug trial sees tumors disappear in 100 percent of patients,” by the Washington Post’s Kim Bellware.

BIRTHDAYS

Google’s Ria Bailey-Galvis … Haley Cohen Gillland … Brad Gallant

A message from California Environmental Voters:

Governor and Legislature: do you stand with our kids?

Your choices in this year’s state budget can either save California or doom it to a future plagued by deadly drought, wildfires, and heat waves. Investing California’s record budget surplus in clean energy and transportation, water, and other vital infrastructure now will provide a lifeline.

Climate change will soon bring our home state to a point of no return. We can’t overcome this massive threat to our health, lives, and livelihoods without bold leadership and a massive investment. The governor’s $47.1 billion climate proposal is unprecedented but only 3% of spending over 5 years.

Think bigger and pass a Climate Courage Budget that invests at least $75 billion over five years. The choice is yours but it’s our kids’ future at stake. Learn more here.

CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this -only service offers, click here.

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