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Jeremy B. White and Lara Korte’s must-read briefing on politics and government in the Golden State | | | | |  | | By Jeremy B. White , Lara Korte , Sakura Cannestra and Owen Tucker-Smith | THE BUZZ: There wasn't a crushing red wave in California — but we still don’t know how high the waters rose. Democrats from San Diego to the Central Valley dozed off in a promising but precarious position (if they slept) after watching their counterparts around the country outperform catastrophic predictions. California’s net House shift may end up being a seat or two as both parties’ vulnerable incumbents largely held the line and a Republican-to-Democrat flip looked probable. The party will likely retain its statewide hegemony. But some Democrats’ positions eroded as night lengthened. Top-tier Legislature races remain in play. It’s early. Potentially millions of ballots remain uncounted. Several races were separated by less than a thousand votes — margins that could evaporate as fresh waves of ballots arrive. That said, here’s a snapshot of where we stood as of very early Wednesday: — HOUSE PARTY: A handful of incumbent House members were on solid footing: Republicans Young Kim, Michelle Steel, Mike Garcia and David Valadao led considerably, as did Democrats Josh Harder and Julia Brownley. Democrats have reason to fret about Rep. Katie Porter after her lead shrank to about a thousand votes, and Republican John Duarte overtook Democratic Assembly member Adam Gray by a couple hundred votes. But Democratic Rep. Mike Levin led by a few thousand votes, and Palm Springs liberals were exulting in Democrat Will Rollins’ enduring double-digit lead over Republican Rep. Ken Calvert.
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Rep. Katie Porter speaks during a House Committee on Oversight and Reform hearing on gun violence on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., on June 8, 2022. | Pool photo by Andrew Harnik | SACRAMENTO SHOWDOWNS: Though Democrats are likely to retain their two-thirds edge in the Legislature, several close battles for contested seats leave the size of those supermajorities in flux. At-risk Democratic Assembly incumbent Ken Cooley led by a few hundred votes, as did Democratic open-seat-seeker Esmeralda Soria. There was a little more breathing room for Democrats Catherine Blakespear and Christy Holstege in two other incumbent-free battlegrounds. The GOP saw some encouraging developments: Democratic Sen. Melissa Hurtado trailed Republican David Shepard in the Central Valley; vulnerable Assembly member Suzette Valladares leapfrogged Democrat Pilar Schiavo; Assembly Democrat Brian Maeinschein fell behind; and an Orange County upset beckons with Republican Soo Yoo a few hundred votes ahead of Democratic Assembly member Sharon Quirk-Silva in a D+17 district. L.A. FRAY: The Los Angeles mayoral race looks as tight as the final polls augured, with Rep. Karen Bass and developer Rick Caruso within a couple points of each other all night. We’re likely days from knowing the victor. Sheriff Alex Villanueva, on the other hand, looks like he’s on his way out after one controversy-marred term. Angelenos also overwhelmingly supported an initiative to let supervisors fire sheriffs, which supes advanced after clashing with Villanueva. STATEWIDE SNOOZERS: Proving yet again that it’s difficult to overcome a five-million-voter registration deficit, Democrats are set to continue locking the GOP out of statewide office as Republican controller candidate Lanhee Chen and GOP attorney general prospect Nathan Hochman were staring up to Democrats Malia Cohen and Rob Bonta. Gov. Gavin Newsom and Sen. Alex Padilla were declared victors one minute after polls closed. Ballot initiatives similarly held no surprises — voters inscribed abortion rights in the constitution (Prop. 1), rejected sports betting (Prop. 26, Prop. 27), approved arts and music education funding (Prop. 28), continued their streak of refusing kidney dialysis regulations (Prop. 29), denied an electric vehicle funding wealth tax (Prop. 30) and sustained a flavored tobacco ban (Prop. 31). Notably, Prop. 1 currently outpolls everything else on the statewide ballot. BUENOS DÍAS, good Wednesday morning. How many hours of sleep did you get? Probably not enough. The vote count continues! Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit us up: jwhite@politico.com and lkorte@politico.com or follow us on Twitter @JeremyBWhite and @Lara_Korte . Send us your political mailers! We’re looking to bring more transparency to the elections process. How you can help: Send us photos of the campaign ads you’ve gotten in the mail. You can upload photos here or email them to mailers@politico.com . QUOTE OF THE DAY: “We have governors that won their reelection tonight in other states that are banning books, that are banning speech, that are banning abortion. And here we are in California moving in a completely different directions … We’re living in a society where not everybody is being treated fairly. There’s that zest for demonization coming from the other side, these red states, where there’s a cruelty, talking down to people, bullying people, making them feel lesser..” Gov. Gavin Newsom in remarks to reporters after his win. TWEET OF THE DAY:
|  Today's Tweet of the Day | Twitter | WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.
| | | | NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID . | | | | | |  | ELECTION ROUNDUP | | DEM DEMS: Intraparty legislative contests attracted millions of dollars from interest groups with Capitol business. Among the closest: Lily Mei led Aisha Wahab for an east Bay Senate seat, Angelique Ashby was besting Dave Jones for a Sacramento Senate district, Marie Alvarado-Gil was ahead of Tim Robertson in an unlikely north state top two. Assembly races were less close: Stephanie Nguyen was outrunning Eric Guerra for a Sacramento Assembly seat; Liz Ortega was ahead of Shawn Kumagai in an east Bay Assembly district; Damon Connolly was outpolling Sara Aminzadeh on the coast; and Jasmeet Bains was in front of Leticia Perez in the Central Valley. In Republican incumbent squareoffs spawned by redistricting, Assembly member Tom Lackey looks poised to defeat Assembly member Thurston Smith and former Assembly leader Marie Waldron was set to best Assembly member Randy Voepel. SAN FRANCISCO DA'S WAY: San Francisco District Attorney Brooke Jenkins was short of a majority allowing her to avoid a runoff, but she carved out a comfortable plurality. Mayor London Breed appointed Jenkins to succeed the recalled ex-D.A. Chesa Boudin. It also looks like Breed will get an extra year in office, with a measure to sync San Francisco’s mayoral elections with presidential cycles poised to pass. TALE OF TWO HERTZBERGS: It was a family affair this cycle in the San Fernando Valley as Sen. Bob Hertzberg vowed for an L.A. County supervisor seat and Daniel Hertzberg sought to succeed his father in the Senate. The results showed a generational divide: Bob narrowly leads West Hollywood Council Member Lindsey Horvath while Daniel trails well behind nonprofit director Caroline Menjivar. — Undecided LA mayor’s race keeps city in suspense , by POLITICO’s Alexander Nieves: A contentious and historically expensive race to be mayor of LA was unresolved early Wednesday, with Rep. Karen Bass and developer Rick Caruso separated by a thin margin in early returns and large numbers of ballots uncounted. — California voters guarantee abortion rights in state constitution , by POLITICO’s Victoria Colliver: California voters agreed Tuesday to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution, a widely anticipated result that represents a repudiation of efforts to restrict the procedure following the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. UP NEXT — “ California’s Newsom wins 2nd term, is White House run next? ” by AP’s Adam Beam: “Nationally, Newsom has sought the role of party messenger, using some of his campaign money to pay for ads in Florida and Texas targeting those state’s conservative governors.” — “ Justice Department to monitor voting rights in 24 states, including in L.A. County ,” by AP’s Michael Balsamo: “The Justice Department is sending monitors to 24 states in an effort to ensure compliance with federal voting rights laws in Tuesday’s elections. The action, which occurs regularly on election day, comes as civil rights groups and the federal government have raised alarm over potential voter intimidation at some polling places and ballot boxes.” MILLIONS LATER… — “ California voters reject measures to legalize sports betting ,” by NPR’s Guy Marzorati: “The defeat of two propositions in California, according to a call by The Associated Press, keeps the largest market in America closed to legal sports betting. The measures would have allowed gambling companies to bring in billions of dollars in revenue, according to some estimates.” — “ Michigan, Vermont join California in enshrining abortion rights in state constitution ,” by AP’s Lindsay Whitehurst: “Voters in battleground Michigan enshrined abortion rights in the state constitution Tuesday, joining reliably Democratic California and Vermont in taking that step. An antiabortion measure in Kentucky remained too early to call.” SHERIFFLAND — “ Villanueva at risk as Luna takes big early lead in L.A. County sheriff race ,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Alene Tchekmedyian, James Queally and Libor Jany: “After a tumultuous first term marked by his combativeness and controversies, Los Angeles County Sheriff Alex Villanueva’s bid for reelection was at risk Tuesday night as early results showed his opponent, Robert Luna, taking a sizable lead.” — “ S.F. D.A. race: Jenkins leads in early results ,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Joshua Sharpe and Megan Cassidy: “Brooke Jenkins, who was appointed by Mayor London Breed to direct the District Attorney’s Office after spearheading the recall of her former boss, Chesa Boudin, was leading in early returns in her race to keep her job Tuesday.” | | Top Talkers | | THE REAL WINNER — “ Powerball: Winning $2 billion ticket sold in California ,” by FOX 11’s Alexa Mae Asperin: “Someone in California just made history as the state lottery's first-ever billionaire after matching all five numbers plus the Powerball in Monday night's jackpot drawing that soared to a whopping $2.04 billion.”
| | CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR | | — “ Rain, snowfall reduce risk of wildfires in California ,” by AP’s John Antczak: “A turn to wet weather has blunted an already moderate wildfire season in California but some risk remains as changing climate has made a rainy fall no guarantee of a stormy winter.” DROUGHT CORNER — “ L.A.’s quest for water leaves costly bill: Higher rates for customers, choking air pollution ,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Louis Sahagun: “Even as worsening drought and aridification force Los Angeles to end its overwhelming dependence on imported water, Angelenos may soon realize that weaning themselves off supplies from the rugged eastern Sierra Nevada doesn’t mean they will stop paying for the city’s long, complicated history there.” — “ As S.F.’s market rate housing developers sit idle, nonprofits are swooping in to create affordable homes ,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s J.K. Dineen: “With the economy teetering on the brink of recession and dozens of market rate housing projects stalled, San Francisco’s nonprofit builders are licking their chops for what could be a rare opportunity to grab a few sites for future affordable residential development.” POURING POLLS — “ At the polls in Southern California, few problems, but lots of rain ,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Connor Sheets and Summer Lin: “Southern California voters who braved the rain to cast their ballots Tuesday morning found the process relatively smooth, with isolated reports of problems concerning voting machines, documentation and at least two polling places closed because of threatening weather.” — “ Tony Thurmond cruises to reelection as California state superintendent, ” by EdSource’s John Fensterwald: “Thurmond, 53, a former two-term Democratic Assemblyman from Richmond, was leading Lance Christensen by nearly 2 to 1, 66% to 34% with more than half of the vote reported. It was a larger margin than Gov. Gavin Newsom held over his Republican opponent, State Sen. Brian Dahle.”
| | | | DON’T MISS POLITICO’S 2nd ANNUAL DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/16: The United States is facing a defining moment in the future of its defense, national security and democratic ideals. The current conflicts and developments around the world are pushing Washington to reshape its defense strategy and how it cooperates with allies. Join POLITICO for our second annual defense summit, “At a Crossroads: America’s Defense Strategy” on November 16 in person at the Schuyler DC or join online to hear keynote interviews and panels discussing the road ahead for America’s national security. REGISTER HERE . | | | | | | | BIDEN, HARRIS AND THE HILL | | MEANWHILE IN D.C. — Republican hopes of a House romp dim, though majority remains in sight , by POLITICO’s Sarah Ferris and Ally Mutnick: Republicans’ drive for the House majority hangs in the balance Wednesday morning, as dozens of key battlegrounds remain too close to call. BOTTOM LINE(S) — The red wave that wasn’t: 5 takeaways from a disappointing night for the GOP , by POLITICO’s David Siders: There was no red wave. Republicans, though still poised to take the House, under-performed, while Democrats breathed a huge sigh of relief. It was a good night for Joe Biden, and a miserable one for Donald Trump. — He has ‘Kevin’s ear’ and could become the most powerful unelected man in DC , by POLITICO’s Hailey Fuchs: “Tuesday’s elections don’t just threaten to upend the balance of power in Congress. They could usher in a seismic shift on K Street, too — in the process making a relatively private 48-year-old lobbyist at an upstart firm one of the most powerful people in the nation’s capital.” ONTO THE NEXT — Biden’s and Trump’s Performances on the 2022 Trail Sow Doubts About 2024 , by POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin: It’s the bipartisan truth that dare not speak its name, at least not in public: Republicans and Democrats alike are stumbling into the midterm elections saddled with presidential frontrunners who many in each party dread will be their nominees.
| | SILICON VALLEYLAND | | REMEMBER HIM? — “ Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg Says He Is Accountable as Company Preps for Mass Layoffs ,” by the Wall Street Journal’s Jeff Horwitz and Sam Schechner: “Meta Platforms Inc. will begin laying off employees on Wednesday morning, Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg told hundreds of executives on Tuesday.” — “ Elon Musk and the Silicon Valley Right ,” by the Nation’s Jeet Heer: “Whether Musk will be able to make Twitter an ongoing concern is an open question. The question of why the world’s richest man wants to control an influential social media platform is more urgent.”
| | MIXTAPE | | — “ Joan Didion remains elusive in a Hammer Museum show inspired by her life ,” Opines Carolina A. Miranda for the Los Angeles Times. — “ New Sacramento Superior Court judge was attorney for employee retirement system ,” by the Sacramento Bee’s Rosalio Ahumada. — “ JFK Drive will remain car-free after S.F. voters reject Prop. I, pass Prop. J ,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Ricardo Cano. MORE DEETS — “ What We Know About That $2 Billion Powerball Ticket Sold In Altadena ,” by LAist’s Sam Benson Smith. EVEN MORE DEETS — “ California Is a Good Place to Win the $2 Billion Powerball Lottery ,” by Bloomberg’s Mackenzie Hawkins.
| | BIRTHDAYS | | Dan Newman … Marie Baldassarre of Rep. Ro Khanna’s office … Elise Norris … Trevor Eischen … Capital One’s Jill Shatzen Kerr CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this -only service offers, click here . Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |  |
