THE BUZZ: MOD-ON-MOD FIGHT — Progressives apparently don't want to run the most liberal major city in America. The emerging field in the 2024 San Francisco mayor's race includes an incumbent and two well-known challengers all campaigning to appeal to an electorate frustrated by the city’s condition. Mayor London Breed has a tough reelection fight in November. But, unlike her first run for the office, her opponents are all moderate-leaning Democrats — at least by San Francisco standards — who want to hire more police officers, clear homeless encampments from sidewalks and arrest people for dealing drugs on the street. The field largely reflects the mood of voters in the city who’ve grown frustrated with its sluggish recovery from the pandemic, squalor on the streets and concerns about rampant theft. Progressives have dominated the Board of Supervisors for years. But San Francisco hasn’t elected a progressive mayor since Art Agnos in 1987 — a factor that speaks to the influence of business interests in citywide elections and the more centrist shift of San Francisco voters as more tech workers move to the city. Gov. Gavin Newsom was seen as a business friendly moderate when he was elected mayor in 2003. Board of Supervisors President Aaron Peskin, a staunch progressive who has been rumored as a mayoral contender, said wealthy tech executives bankrolling moderate candidates have made it challenging for progressives to fight back. He said that’s one reason why he’s leaning against getting into the race. ‘‘The billionaires have spent a lot of money creating an extremely toxic environment for the historic liberal consensus in San Francisco,” he said. Ironically, the glut of moderates could splinter the vote, creating a pathway for a progressive to pull off an upset. The potential for such a candidate to shake up the field has been a source of chatter in city political circles for weeks. “There’s definitely a lane for a progressive, if that progressive got in now or got in yesterday,” Peskin said. It wouldn’t be the first time. Former District Attorney Chesa Boudin, who was later recalled, won election in 2019 during the third round of ranked vote tabulation, largely due to moderate rivals splitting the vote, meaning Boudin only won after the third and fourth place candidates were eliminated and their votes reassigned based on their second choice. Would-be candidates have until June to enter the race, but any serious contender would likely need to begin fundraising immediately to be able to compete with mayoral hopefuls backed by business interests. Breed’s most formidable challenger so far is Daniel Lurie, a nonprofit executive and heir to the Levi Strauss & Co. fortune. She also faces a mayoral opponent in Ahsha Safaí, a swing vote on the Board of Supervisors. Former interim Mayor Mark Farrell, also a moderate, is considering jumping into the fray and has been quietly meeting with allies in recent weeks. Breed has increasingly seized tough-on-crime rhetoric in recent months as her field of challengers grows. She’s even proposed a ballot measure to require drug screening for recipients of locally-funded welfare — an idea criticized by other moderates in the race. “The problem with progressives right now is that they are not aligned with the mood or the desires of San Francisco voters for a safer city,” said Maggie Muir, Breed’s campaign consultant. “It’s really hard when you’re ideologically out of line.” But the centrist field could spur other candidates to appeal to the left. Safaí, for example, has emphasized his background as an immigrant and former labor organizer. “I’m, by far, the most progressive candidate in the race to date,” he said. GOOD MORNING. Happy Tuesday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. Now you can text us at 916-562-0685 — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts now. Or drop us a line at lkorte@politico.com and dgardiner@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @Lara_Korte WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced. DEBATE ALERT: WE WANT YOUR HELP — POLITICO is co-hosting the first debate for California's Senate race on Monday, Jan. 22. All four major candidates have accepted our invite to appear onstage: Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee and Republican and former Dodgers player Steve Garvey. This will be a televised battle between those top candidates. Tell us what we should ask them, and we just might use your question during the debate. Fill out this form by Wednesday, Jan. 17 to be considered. | 
