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Gary Fineout's must-read briefing on what's hot, crazy or shady about politics in the Sunshine State | | | | |  | | By Gary Fineout | Hello and welcome to Thursday. Happening overnight — Hurricane Nicole made landfall in Florida just south of Vero Beach at around 3 a.m. Shortly after landfall, it was downgraded to a tropical storm. It is expected to move across the state and then turn toward the Panhandle. Déjà vu — The hand-wringing, the post-game analysis and the back-and-forth over the leadership of the Florida Democratic Party that seems to come after every recent election cycle has erupted once again. Expectations game — Nearly a year ago, Florida Democratic Party Chair Manny Diaz called 2022 a “rebuilding year,” a sports metaphor meant to suggest, yes, losing is expected but a pathway to victory is underway. What happened on Tuesday suggested instead that Democrats may be on a pathway to oblivion. The list — And yes, there may be multiple reasons for that, starting with the plain fact that the candidates at the top of the ballot for Democrats did little to inspire turnout and many Democratic voters simply stayed home. But there are also questions about organization and resources that Diaz had pledged to fix. Diaz himself released a memo Tuesday that pointed out how national Democratic groups spent so little in Florida this cycle compared to 2018. Reviews are in — The Democratic Progressive Caucus of Florida on Wednesday demanded that Diaz immediately resign saying that Diaz — a former mayor of Miami — “promised everything” and “delivered none of it.” “Chair Diaz never understood the electorate, the timely need for outreach, registration and community participation. There was no outreach plan for FDP’s most reliable voters, including minorities, youth and progressives.” Bringing down the temperature — State Sen. Shevrin Jones expressed frustration as well, but called it “unproductive to point fingers, particularly because they are not single-cycle problems.” He added that there is “no magic wand” when it comes to fixing the Democrats' problems, including “candidate recruitment.” Help wanted? — Diaz reportedly has no plans to resign, but there are apparently discussions and meetings being planned. Given the situation — and the likelihood that Florida has been written off by national Democrats — a key question is who would want the job if it were thrown open. Not me — Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried — who leaves office in January — initially told CBS Miami’s Jim DeFede she was considering a move to push Diaz out. But then she took to Twitter to make it clear she was not running for the job. “A lot of things need to change to restore our winning coalition from 2018 — and I will continue fighting for that — just not by taking over the party.” There’s also been rumblings that state Rep. Carlos Guillermo Smith, who lost his bid for reelection, could be a replacement. The long winter has started. — WHERE'S RON? — Gov. DeSantis is expected to be in Tallahassee monitoring Tropical Storm Nicole. Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for Playbook? Get in touch: gfineout@politico.com
| | | | NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID . | | | | | |  | CAMPAIGN MODE | | WHO’S NEXT? — The 5 things Trump’s potential 2024 rivals are thinking about right now , by POLITICO’s Alex Isenstadt: Tuesday “was a huge springboard for [Gov. Ron] DeSantis if he wants it. Republicans are sick of losing and he’s a proven winner right now on an otherwise tough night,” said Scott Jennings, who was a top political adviser to former President George W. Bush. While DeSantis has deflected questions about interest in a 2024 bid, he is among the speakers at next week’s Republican Jewish Coalition conference in Las Vegas, a traditional party cattle call that is expected to draw donors interested in scoping out potential presidential candidates. ‘YOU HAVE A MOMENT’ — “ Momentum — and planning — for DeSantis 2024 bid takes off after resounding Florida win ,” by CNN’s Steve Contorno: “Still, the timing of a 2024 campaign launch, if it happens, remains up in the air. When reports first emerged that Trump intended to kickstart his presidential campaign in mid-November, those in DeSantis’ circle braced for the possibility of a quick turnaround from the midterm to a presidential primary showdown. Now, several consultants in Florida say DeSantis likely won’t formally jump into the presidential field until after state lawmakers meet for their annual legislative session. That would put DeSantis on a timeline of a May or June announcement. ‘Build anticipation,’ one longtime Republican fundraiser with knowledge of DeSantis’ operation said. ‘I think DeSantis controls the time frame. As much as everyone anticipates things and you want to move quickly, he calls the shots now.’” | 
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis's crushing victory on Tuesday has made him the leading contender to challenge Trump | Joe Raedle/Getty Images | THE HEIR — “ With runaway win, DeSantis’s political career becomes supercharged ,” by The New York Times’ Patricia Mazzei: "With the national spotlight squarely on him, [Gov. Ron] DeSantis could for the first time experience intense scrutiny from the right — starting with [former President] Trump, who before Tuesday’s outcome threatened to reveal unflattering information about Mr. DeSantis if he were to challenge him in a Republican presidential primary. On Wednesday, Mr. Trump noted on his social media platform Truth Social that he netted about a million more votes in Florida in 2020 than Mr. DeSantis did on Tuesday, though he failed to mention that turnout is usually higher in presidential elections." ACROSS THE BOARD — “ Florida exit polls: DeSantis won Hispanics and just about every other key group ,” by USA Today Network-Florida’s Zac Anderson and Sergio Bustos: "Gov. Ron DeSantis's blowout victory was powered by his appeal to demographic groups that typically favor Democrats, such as Hispanic and female voters. DeSantis won 57% of the Hispanic vote, compared with 42% for Democrat Charlie Crist, according to exit polls by major news organizations. And he won not only the traditionally GOP-leaning Cuban-American vote, but Puerto Ricans, who historically tend to vote Democratic. That 15-point edge with Hispanics is a huge reversal from President Joe Biden's performance with the group in 2020. Biden won the Hispanic vote in Florida by seven percentage points. DeSantis's strength with Hispanic voters helped him carry Miami-Dade County, a majority Hispanic county." MISSING — “ Republicans dominated Florida elections. What happened to Democrats? ” by Tampa Bay Times' Romy Ellenbogen and Ian Hodgson: "But Democrats didn’t vote in numbers high enough to move the needle. In counties that Biden won in 2020, including Hillsborough and Pinellas, Republican turnout was higher than that of Democrats. Statewide, nearly two-thirds of registered Republicans showed up to the polls, compared to just half of registered Democrats, according to a Tampa Bay Times analysis. Nationwide, it makes Florida an outlier. Despite predictions of dominant Republican performance across the board, Democrats in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan found success. Across the nation, Democrats put up tight margins — all of which makes Florida’s poor Democratic performance, and low turnout, more stark." MAGIC 8-BALL SAYS — “ Charlie Crist was swamped by a powerful DeSantis: Was this his last run for office ?” by USA Today Network-Florida’s John Kennedy: “[Charlie] Crist, 66, now has run twice for U.S. Senate, three times for governor, and two more times for Cabinet posts. His defeat by [Gov. Ron] DeSantis leaves him with a record of three wins and four losses when he put his name before statewide voters. What’s next for Crist isn’t clear. He resigned his seat in Congress after winning the Democratic nomination for governor in the August primary. ‘He is the phoenix who has risen from the ashes time and time again,’ said Steve Schale, a Florida Democratic consultant who worked on Crist’s first run for governor as a Democrat, in 2014.” HEADED TO D.C. — “ Anna Paulina Luna throws a coming out party for new MAGA generation ,” by Washington Post’s Ruby Cramer: “You should know the name Anna Paulina Luna. In two months, it will be etched outside a congressional office in D.C., a marker of a younger, more diverse, more online generation of Trump’s Republican Party. Soon it will appear alongside names you already know, like Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), on the rolls of the House Freedom Caucus, a hardline conservative group poised to push Trump’s agenda with even more power in a Republican House.” — “‘It is not an accident’: Murdoch’s media empire celebrates DeSantis as the future of GOP after midterms ,’” CNN Business Oliver Darcy — “ Florida Democrats flop as GOP spends more, out-hustles them ,” by Orlando Sentinel’s Jeffrey Schweers and Steven Lemongello — “ DeSantis win in Miami-Dade comes just in time to give Republicans hope for sheriff in ’24 ,” by Miami Herald’s Douglas Hanks — “ Evan Power announces bid for Republican Party of Florida chair ,” by Florida Politics’ Jacob Ogles
| | ...HURRICANE HOLE... | | ARRIVAL — “ Hurricane Nicole makes landfall, sweeps across state with heavy rains and winds ,” by Miami Herald’s Alex Harris: “Hurricane Nicole made landfall just south of Vero Beach early Thursday morning with much of its worst damage already done along a coastline battered by high surf and storm surge that undermined pool decks and at least a few buildings. Nicole came ashore as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds but almost immediately weakened to tropical storm strength as it moved inland. It’s massive wind field and bands of powerful thunderstorms extended hundreds of miles to the north, bringing gusts up to 60 mph and drenching rains across much of the upper half of the state — from Tampa to Cocoa Beach.” — “ Disney World, Universal and Sea World shut down early for Hurricane Nicole ,” by Orlando Sentinel’s Katie Rice — “ Red tide reached Anna Maria this week. Will Hurricane Nicole make it worse? ” by Tampa Bay Times’ Max Chesnes
| | | | DON’T MISS POLITICO’S 2nd ANNUAL DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/16: The United States is facing a defining moment in the future of its defense, national security and democratic ideals. The current conflicts and developments around the world are pushing Washington to reshape its defense strategy and how it cooperates with allies. Join POLITICO for our second annual defense summit, “At a Crossroads: America’s Defense Strategy” on November 16 in person at the Schuyler DC or join online to hear keynote interviews and panels discussing the road ahead for America’s national security. REGISTER HERE . | | | | | | | TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP | | CAUTIONARY TALE — “ Trump urged to delay 2024 launch after GOP’s uneven election ,” by The Associated Press’ Jill Colvin: “Indeed, some allies were calling on [former President Donald] Trump to delay his planned announcement next week, saying the party’s full focus needs to be on Georgia, where Trump-backed football great Herschel Walker’s effort to unseat Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock is headed to a runoff that could determine control of the Senate once again. ‘I’ll be advising him that he move his announcement until after the Georgia runoff,’ said former Trump adviser Jason Miller, who spent the night with the former president at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida. ‘Georgia needs to be the focus of every Republican in the country right now,’ he said.” | 
Former President Donald Trump takes the stage to speak at Mar-a-lago on Election Day on Nov. 8, 2022, in Palm Beach, Fla. | Andrew Harnik/AP Photo |
‘WE TEND TO BE SLOW LEARNERS’ — Move on from Trump? Even GOP critics of the former president don’t see it , by POLITICO’s David Siders and Meredith McGraw: But even amid the fallout and recriminations, Republicans critical of the former president were resigning themselves to another reality: they may be stuck with Trump anyway in 2024. ‘We tend to be slow learners,’ said Steve Duprey, the former Republican national committeeman from New Hampshire and longtime former state chair in the first-in-the-nation primary state. “There are lessons here,” he added. “If you look around the country, given the inflation, given the economic uncertainty, given the war in Ukraine, given the disastrous pullout from Afghanistan, it should have been a strong red wave. That it wasn’t… is a great warning shot to the Republican Party that it is time for new ideas and definitely new messaging.”
ASK THE LAWYERS — 6 reasons why Trump’s already bad legal troubles are about to get worse , by POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein: With the midterm elections in the rearview, federal prosecutors are no longer abiding by an unwritten code to avoid politically sensitive investigative steps before voters go to the polls. An Atlanta-area prosecutor probing Trump’s effort to subvert the 2020 election had also paused most of her potentially explosive steps while Georgia voters were casting ballots. And the inability of Republicans to deliver massive margins of victory threatens to deprive Trump of the overwhelmingly Republican Congress that he had hoped would wield committee gavels and subpoena power to protect him and torment rivals. — “ Trump watch party: Muted tones of ex-president’s speech a contrast with DeSantis’s thunder ,” by Palm Beach Post’s Antonio Fins
| | ... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ... | | THE AGENDA — “ What Florida could expect from Ron DeSantis’ second term ,” by Tampa Bay Times’ Emily L. Mahoney: “It’s unclear just how long he’ll run the Sunshine State, as speculation continues to mount that he’s eyeing the White House in 2024. He has declined to publicly commit to serving all four years. Two days before the election, [Gov. Ron] DeSantis promised a Hillsborough County rally crowd that he would continue to ‘fight the woke,’ which he called a ‘mind virus’ permeating all aspects of society. ‘We will never, ever surrender to the woke mob in the state of Florida,’ he said to hearty applause. ‘Our state is where woke goes to die.’ DeSantis’ campaign hinged on his handling of the pandemic and his persona as a conservative fighter. Supporters say his enormous victory should give him confidence that his state fully backs his approach.”
| | PENINSULA AND BEYOND | | FALLOUT — “ Ex-Proud Boy held rally for Rubio canvasser beaten in Hialeah. Now he thinks story was a lie ,” by Miami Herald’s Sarah Blaskey and Nicholas Nehamas : “But after watching new videos of the moments before two men attacked [Christopher] Monzon, [Gabriel] Garcia now says he thinks the canvasser is lying about being the victim of a leftist attack — and that Sen. Marco Rubio, who turned the incident into a national news story with a provocative tweet, used the fight for his political advantage. ‘After seeing the new evidence and video, this was not politically motivated and Chris took advantage of the situation,’ said Garcia, who serves on the Miami-Dade County Republican Party’s Executive Committee. ‘I hope he goes to jail for lying to the detective on his BS story and same with little Marco for taking advantage of this situation for political gains.’” MOVING AHEAD — New university faculty tenure review rule gets initial approval in Florida , by POLITICO’s Andrew Atterbury: Florida university leaders on Wednesday granted initial approval to a new rule outlining reviews for tenured faculty members across the state, guidelines that would, among other things, gauge whether professors are following a controversial new law that regulates how schools teach lessons about race. The tenure rule, backed by the state university system Board of Governors, was called for by conservative policymakers in Florida including Gov. Ron DeSantis, who in 2022 passed several laws set to usher in significant changes to higher education. MEANWHILE — “ Florida universities push back on proposed new rules for faculty tenure ,” by Tampa Bay Times’ Divya Kumar: "But universities have bristled at many other parts of the proposal, records show. An associate provost at Florida Atlantic University wrote that the termination provision lacked due process. Florida International University asked how bias and indoctrination would be measured. The University of Central Florida questioned the 12-month timeline that faculty would have to improve their work, arguing it wouldn’t be long enough for those who needed to conduct more research. Many schools wrote that the policy duplicated annual reviews that already take place and policies around misconduct and incompetence." — Florida university leaders approve $1M salary for Sasse , by POLITICO’s Andrew Atterbury — “ Political trailblazer Sylvia Poitier, Broward’s first Black commissioner, dies at 87 ,” by South Florida Sun-Sentinel’s Susannah Bryan
| | ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN | | — “‘ A terrible message’ for women: Hispanic, Black faculty protest Rosenberg’s return to FIU ,” by Miami Herald’s Jimena Tavel: “Black and Hispanic professors at Florida International University have slammed the university administration for allowing former President Mark Rosenberg to return to campus as a professor in the spring, after he resigned in January amid a harassment scandal. The Hispanic Faculty Association and the Black Faculty Association sent separate emails to the FIU Board of Trustees, condemning its 12 members for not consulting faculty and other stakeholders regarding Rosenberg’s case. They also warned that putting him back in a classroom ‘disrespects women’ and sends a ‘terrible message’ to those who have been harassed. BIRTHDAYS: Mark Herron, attorney with Messer Caparello, P.A. ... Journalist and writer Alan Gomez ... Carlos Becerra, associate vice president of government and community affairs for Florida International University | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |  |
