Previewing the DeSantis-Trump clash

From: POLITICO Florida Playbook - Friday Nov 18,2022 12:03 pm

Nov 18, 2022

Hello and welcome to Friday.

The path already taken — In his march to the White House the first time, former President Donald Trump dispatched two Florida Republicans, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio. The battle against Bush was notable because he had been the state’s first two-term Republican governor and defeated his Democratic opponent for reelection by double digits.

That was then — and this is now — But once again Trump finds that his pathway to the GOP nomination may be blocked by a popular governor from Florida. Let’s note that Gov. Ron DeSantis has not yet jumped into the race, so “chill out,” right? But after Trump’s predictable decision to run again, the chattering and media obsession has begun in earnest about a Trump v. DeSantis confrontation, inviting comparisons to what happened in the run-up to 2016.

Countdown — There are a lot of potential differences between the Bush v. Trump battle and the looming one against DeSantis, notes POLITICO’s Michael Kruse, including that Bush had been out of office for several years before he mounted his bid.

Thumbs down — Some of those who weighed in on the Trump candidacy redux include John Morgan, the well-known attorney and big-time donor who called Trump a “dead man walking.” Sam Nunberg, who was one of Trump’s advisers during his 2016 campaign, told Kruse the former president is on a losing streak and that “the majority of the country despises Trump… and the majority of the Republican Party is moving on.”

More chatter — Another Republican strategist told Kruse that Bush “was the perfect foil — a living testament to the political class, a darling of the establishment who had been a successful governor but who could not have been more out of step with what the base was looking for. … Whatever you think of DeSantis he is none of that.” Nunberg added that “DeSantis is his worst nightmare."

The Trump factor — Still, there are some who won’t count Trump out — especially in what could be a very brutal primary where Trump rips into the person he helped win the governor’s mansion back in 2018. “Anyone who would discount Trump at this point hasn’t been paying attention,” said Alex Conant, a GOP consultant who was a key aide to Marco Rubio in 2016, told Kruse. “I would never discount his ability,” Conant said of Trump, “to trample the competition and win the primary.”

— WHERE'S RON? — Nothing official announced for Gov. DeSantis.

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CAMPAIGN MODE

MAGIC 8-BALL SAYS — ‘ A face-eating dragon’: Can Trump do to DeSantis what he did to Bush? ’ by POLITICO’s Michael Kruse: But former President Donald Trump is Trump. And for all the ways he so consistently stokes chaos, Trump, 76, is nothing if not predictable. He won’t let it go because he never has. He won’t admit defeat because he never has. He won’t willingly, much less graciously, cede the spotlight … because he never has — especially not to a seemingly able and ascendant heir. “He can’t accept that anybody else can do what he perceives he can do,” Alan Marcus, a former Trump publicist and consultant, told me. “And he also can’t accept walking away because that would indicate he’s a loser.” And so he’s going to attack Gov. Ron DeSantis.

— “ Who has signed up to back Trump in 2024 — and who loudly hasn’t ,” by Washington Post’s Philip Bump

Former President Donald Trump and his wife Melania greet supporters, after Trump announced a third run for president at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla., Tuesday, Nov. 15, 2022. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)

SPLIT — “ Poll: Florida’s Black, Latino voters differ on inflation, abortion, which party cares about their issues ,” by USA Today Network-Florida’s Sergio Bustos: “A new poll of Black and Latino voters in Florida shows significant differences among the state’s largest minority voting blocs, with the two groups apart on inflation, cost-of-living and abortion issues, and in their views about which party cares more about their community — Democrats or Republicans.”

TRYING TO FIGURE IT OUT — “ How Florida turned red: Changing population, weak opposition, aggressive Gov. Ron DeSantis ,” by USA Today Network-Florida’s John Kennedy and Zac Anderson: “While a Republican red wave missed most of the nation this election season, it washed over Florida powered by energy from shifting demographics, a dysfunctional Democratic Party and Gov. Ron DeSantis. ... They are using Florida right now as their chew toy,’ said former Rep. Carlos Guillermo Smith, D-Orlando, among several prominent Democrats unseated in the GOP wave. ‘We can’t have a Democratic Party standing by and doing nothing, and offering voters no alternative.”

— “ Did DeSantis’ map deliver the U.S. House to Republicans? It’s complicated ,” by Tampa Bay Times’ Romy Ellenbogen

— “ Pompano Vice Mayor Beverly Perkins accused of misusing leftover campaign funds in 2020 election ,” by South Florida Sun-Sentinel’s Lisa J. Huriash

— “ Cord Byrd says there’s ‘plenty of time’ for possible Ron DeSantis run in 2024 ,” by Florida Politics’ A.G. Gancarski

— “ Dale Holness’ former campaign consultant sentenced to 15 months in prison for COVID relief fraud ,” by South Florida Sun-Sentinel’s Shira Moolten

... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ...

JUDGE WALKER WEIGHS IN AGAIN — ‘ Positively dystopian’: Florida judge blocks DeSantis’ anti-woke law for colleges , by POLITICO’s Andrew Atterbury: A federal judge on Thursday halted a key piece of the “Stop-WOKE” Act touted by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, blocking state officials from enforcing what he called a “positively dystopian” policy restricting how lessons on race and gender can be taught in colleges and universities. The 138-page order from Chief U.S. District Judge Mark Walker is being heralded as a major win for campus free speech by the groups who challenged the state. The temporary injunction granted by Walker over the anti-woke law has significant implications for policies in Florida, including a pending university tenure review rule that requires professors to abide by it.

Response — Bryan Griffin, a spokesperson for the governor, said the administration will appeal. “We strongly disagree with Judge Walker’s preliminary injunction orders on the enforcement of the Stop W.O.K.E. Act and will continue to fight,” he said in a statement.

BEHIND THE CURTAIN — DeSantis administration spent months investigating prosecutors before Warren suspension , by POLITICO’s Matt Dixon: Court documents released this month outline that Warren’s ouster was part of a larger effort by DeSantis to root out prosecutors who publicly said they wouldn’t follow state laws. The records are part of a federal lawsuit Warren filed against DeSantis over his suspension. During a December 2021 meeting, DeSantis asked Keefe, a former Trump administration U.S. attorney, if he was aware of any state attorneys who had pledged not to follow state law. The conversation, according to court records, lasted less than a minute. But Keefe said the brief exchange motivated him to, on his own, begin researching whether any state prosecutor was not enforcing laws.

Don’t tweet — The day of the announced suspension, DeSantis’ team was already preparing for a forthcoming legal challenge, which was quickly filed by Warren in the Tallahassee federal court. After administration staffer Kyle Lamb started tweeting about the start of the Tampa news conference where DeSantis would announce Warren’s suspension — including calling him a “Soros-backed” prosecutor, a reference to mega Democratic donor George Soros — [Chief of Staff James] Uthmeier told Lamb to stop because his tweets could impact future litigation.

RENNER STARTS PUTTING TOGETHER TEAM — Ahead of next week's organizational session, incoming House Speaker Paul Renner (R-Palm Coast) announced some of the legislators who will hold top slots. Renner on Thursday said he had appointed Rep. Michael Grant (R-Punta Gorda) to be House majority leader and that he was recommending Rep. Chuck Clemons (R-Newberry) for House speaker pro tempore.

THE ‘PUBLIC SERVICE’ COMMISSION — PSC rejects Public Counsel’s argument against Wild West proceeding on utility fuel costs , by POLITICO’s Bruce Ritchie: State regulators on Thursday rejected arguments from consumer representatives that Florida's electric utilities are violating agency rules and procedures by not revealing how much they want to charge customers for rising fuel costs. Utility customers will be paying more after Jan. 1 for base rate increases approved in 2021 and for rising fuel costs expected next year. But the total amount rates will go up in 2023 is unknown because utilities have not submitted requests to the state based on rising fuel costs that have occurred this year.

YANKED — APD cancels contract with nonprofit Arc over payment issue , by POLITICO’s Arek Sarkissian: The Florida Agency for Persons with Disabilities has decided to sever its $3 million yearly dental services contract with The Arc of Florida after the state said the nonprofit failed to justify more than $439,000 in payments it received last year. In the letter sent late Tuesday, Francis Carbone, general counsel for the Agency for Persons with Disabilities, told Arc of Florida Chief Executive Officer Alan Abramowitz that the Tallahassee nonprofit didn’t turn in completed invoices for 260 clients during the last state fiscal year. Arc, the letter stated, has also failed to reconcile the billing issue since the agency suspended the contract in August.

BY THE NUMBERS — “ Election 2022: The Legislature will have more Black GOP lawmakers in both chambers ,” by Florida Phoenix’s Isaac Morgan: “Following the midterm elections in Florida, Black representation in the GOP has increased in the state Legislature, compared to the last term from 2020-22 when there was only one lone Black Republican — state Rep. Webster Barnaby of Volusia County. But now the Florida Legislative Black Caucus has increased to four GOP members overall in the Florida Legislature for the 2022-24 term.”

— “ Lawsuit on gun licenses for medical marijuana patients in Florida going to US appeals court ,” by News Service of Florida

— “ Gov. DeSantis: State workers to get extra days off for holidays ,” by Florida Politics’ Gray Rohrer

GO INSIDE THE MILKEN INSTITUTE FUTURE OF HEALTH SUMMIT: POLITICO is featuring a special edition of our “Future Pulse” newsletter at the 2022 Milken Institute Future of Health Summit from Dec. 6 to 8. The newsletter takes readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of health industry leaders and innovators solving the biggest global health issues to ensure a healthier, more resilient future for all. SUBSCRIBE TODAY TO RECEIVE EXCLUSIVE COVERAGE .

TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP

A NEW CHAPTER — “ Inside Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner’s gilded Florida paradise — far from Donald Trump or 2024 ,” by Vanity Fair’s Emily Jane Fox: “For Ivanka, this clear line probably felt necessary. She had been front and center the last go-around, fundraising and stumping, then ultimately working in the White House. Without her Tuesday night statement, it could be assumed that she will jump right back in, particularly because she has kept much of her life private since they left Washington. It is the first time that she’s drawn a boundary around her relationship with him—not when his sex life was the subject of tabloid fodder when she was in grade school; not while she was his employee for years, first at the Trump Organization, then in the White House; not while he was putting children in cages.”

— “ GOP operative found guilty of funneling Russian money to Donald Trump ,” by Washington Post’s Rachel Weiner

— “ Trump organization finance chief details the birth of tax-fraud scheme ,” by The New York Times’ Jonah E. Bromwich, Ben Protess and Lola Fadulu

...HURRICANE HOLE...

ANOTHER ONE — “ UPC Insurance on the brink ,” by Tampa Bay Business Journal’s Christina Georgacopolous: “Hurricane Ian dealt a devastating blow to United Insurance Holding Corp. The St. Petersburg-based residential property insurance company, also known as UPC, is expected to retain $36 million in losses from Ian, adding to $151 million in losses this year already. ‘There is a very high degree of uncertainty regarding the long-term economic implications of this event for our company and the entire industry,’ President and CFO Brad Martz said in a statement after Ian. According to Insurance Information Institute Senior Analyst Mark Friedlander, UPC’s future is in serious peril and insolvency ‘most likely lies ahead.’ UPC isn’t an aberration.”

PENINSULA AND BEYOND

‘IT’S THE RIGHT THING TO DO’ — “ Orange County commissioners vote to continue legal fight for rent control ,” by Orlando Sentinel’s Stephen Hudak: “Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings, who voted in August against putting a rent-control ordinance on the Nov. 8 ballot, switched sides Thursday and joined the majority of county commissioners who decided to continue a legal fight for the disputed measure. ‘In my humble opinion at this point, there is a question of legality and I believe that appealing is going to provide some clarity,’ he said after voting with commissioners Emily Bonilla, Nicole Wilson, Mayra Uribe and Maribel Gomez-Cordero for further appeal. ‘The odds are probably not in our favor but I want that clarity and there’s an opportunity for the courts to provide that.’”

CHANGE OF DIRECTION — “ State asks judge not to send U.S.-born baby to Haiti. Judge wants to hear from grandmother ,” by Miami Herald Jacqueline Charles and Jay Weaver: “A U.S.-born infant at the center of an international child-custody dispute may get a reprieve from a requirement that he be forcibly relocated to Haiti, the conflict-ridden nation of his mother’s birth. Florida child welfare administrators, who will help determine the child’s fate, have made an about-face and are now asking a judge to allow the boy, whose first name is Ector, to remain in the United States where he is currently being cared for by foster parents who want to adopt him. Previously, administrators with the state Department of Children & Families had requested that 11-month old Ector, who was born in Broward County and is a U.S. citizen, be sent to live with his maternal grandmother in a rural mountain village in Haiti.”

— “ Scientology workers signed contracts under duress, their lawyers say ,” by Tampa Bay Times’ Tracey McManus

— “ Two Customs agents injured, one dead, after shootout at sea with smugglers off Puerto Rico ,” by Miami Herald’s Charles Rabin and Syra Ortiz-Blanes

— “ Gov. DeSantis claims ‘freedom first’ policies drive Florida’s tourism boom ,” by Florida Politics’ A.G. Gancarski

— “ Red tide update: State report shows toxic algae levels from Sarasota south to Marco Island ,” by Fort Myers News-Press Chad Gillis

ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN

— “ Sarasota judge awards $3 million to Gabby Petito’s family in wrongful death lawsuit ,” by Sarasota Herald-Tribune Gabriela Szymanowska: “A Sarasota County judge Thursday awarded Gabby Petito’s family $3 million in a wrongful death lawsuit against the estate of Brian Laundrie. The wrongful death lawsuit is separate from the negligence lawsuit Petito’s parents, Joseph Petito and Nicole Schmidt filed against Laundrie’s parents. That case is expected to go to trial next August. As a result of the judge ruling in favor of Petito's family, a trial that was scheduled for this December will not be held. ‘The Petito family lost their daughter, and they were also denied the opportunity to confront her killer,’ Patrick Reilly, the Petito family's attorney, said in a statement.”

BIRTHDAYS: State Sen. Geraldine Thompson

(Saturday) Karen Moore, CEO and founder of The Moore Agency … Maya Hixson of Hixson Strategies

(Sunday) Anthony Pedicini, founder of Strategic Image Management

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