THE F-BOMB IN THE ROOM: With the end in sight, it’s all coming down to one big issue: whether a fossil fuel phase-out will be included in the final text. Various options were being worked on last night, with a new text due this morning. Rise to the occasion: “The time has come for all parties to constructively engage, I want everyone to show flexibility,” al-Jaber said Sunday. But it remains to be seen how far big fossil fuel producers like Saudi Arabia will bend. Back in town: U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has arrived back in Dubai “because we are on the brink of climate disaster.” He tweeted: “I am here to renew my urgent appeal to leaders: Recommit to the 1.5°C warming limit. End the fossil fuel age. Deliver climate justice." D-day for al-Jaber: Spain’s Minister for the Ecological Transition Teresa Ribera, who represents EU governments in the negotiations, urged al-Jaber to take a more active role in the final stretch: “We’re in the hard moment where we need the clear engagement of the president of the COP,” she told my colleagues Karl Mathiesen and Zia Weise in an interview. “He should be playing not only the role of a moderator, but the role of a leader trying to identify how we can open this pathway toward the outcomes that we need to get.” OPEC shows its true colors: Ribera’s comments came after the secretary-general of OPEC, the world’s de-facto oil cartel, urged member countries — including the UAE and Saudi Arabia — to reject any text that targets the production and consumption of fossil fuels, bemoaning the “undue and disproportionate pressure against fossil fuels.” MOOD MUSIC: “Good vibes and the greatest inclusiveness” — those are the somewhat enigmatic words of Beijing’s climate czar Xie Zhenhua who, in the first press conference by the Chinese delegation since November 30, on Saturday expressed optimism that a deal was in sight. Reminder: China is the world’s biggest CO2 emitter.
TALK OF THE TOWN
YES, IT’S HAPPENING: COP is heading to Azerbaijan next year — the latest oil-rich country to host the U.N. climate talks. Baku’s bid will likely be signed off this week, Zia Weise and Sara Schonhardt write (it’s usually a formality).
More bad optics: Delegates in Dubai expressed disbelief that Azerbaijan, a country where fossil fuels make up more than 90 percent of its exports, is set to host next year’s COP. “Off the record? I think it’s an abomination,” said one EU negotiator. “At least the Emiratis have been making some efforts to green their industry. Azerbaijan has shown zero interest in climate policy.”
CLASH OF THE SUMMITS: The latest dates under consideration for COP29: November 11-November 24, 2024. That would overlap with the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, which is penciled in for November 18-19.
The Brazilians seem on board … as long as the dates of the high-level portion of COP when leaders attend don’t clash with the G20 bash. POLITICO MUST-READ: What does a born-again eco-warrior billionaire do at COP? Charlie Cooper and Karl Mathiesen find out in this must-read interview with Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest, Australia’s second-richest person. Forrest, who made his fortune in iron ore mining, has become an unlikely champion of the energy transition. Making a splash: Forrest is brash, bold and hard to miss — particularly given one of his ammonia-capable ships has been berthed in Dubai Marina during COP, towering over the luxury yachts. Among the dignitaries Forrest has hosted on board: John Kerry. It’s all about the money: Forrest, known in Australia by the nickname “Twiggy,” is passionate about the need for the world to drop fossil fuels. But he’s also clear-eyed about the need to make money. “Whether it’s out of the goodness of my heart or not, you cannot pay any salaries, cannot pay any taxes, cannot contribute to anyone unless you’re making profit,” Forrest said brusquely. “Making profit is the art of sustainability.”
And speaking of money: Wind farms, green hydrogen projects, canceling coal — they’re all drowning under borrowing costs, writes POLITICO’s Zack Colman. He analyzes how rising interest rates are imperiling the world’s climate goals.
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