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Presented by Instagram: An evening recap of the action on Capitol Hill and preview of the day ahead | | | | |  | | By Ursula Perano, Burgess Everett and Daniella Diaz | | | With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team
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Bipartisan negotiators had said that this might be the week to move on the stalled national security spending plan, but getting a vote will be challenging. | AP | DON’T GET EXCITED … YET … ABOUT SENATE DEAL PROGRESS As real Capitol denizens know from experience, all big negotiations have plenty of rosy moments before the real whipping begins. And that’s exactly where things stand in the Senate right now. We’re seeing and hearing lots of positive signs, but more reasons to be bearish about a vote this week on a bipartisan agreement to tighten border security policies while spending big on Ukraine and Israel aid. Bipartisan negotiators had said that this might be the week to move on President Joe Biden’s massive, stalled national security spending plan. But despite all of their recent progress, getting a vote this week will be challenging – at best. Listen to two of the three senators helming talks: Lead Democratic negotiator Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said a vote this week is “possible.” Lead GOP negotiator James Lankford (R-Okla.) said it’d be a “stretch.” First, the hopeful news: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer does not have to spend two days setting up a vote, since he voted no and moved to reconsider Biden’s national security supplemental back in December when it failed on the floor. That procedural maneuver lets Schumer quickly bring up another vote. Senators are also scheduled for a two-week recess starting on Feb. 9, which will exert pressure of its own to move before then. But it looks unlikely that senators will have the time this week for more than a procedural vote or two on any deal — and everything could easily slip to next week. 3 big reasons why that’s true:
- There’s still no bill text. Which means some details — even if they’re in the last-lap stage of the Appropriations Committee — are still being worked out. Notably, Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), a vocal progressive on immigration, said that “I want to see the policy.”
- They’ll need socialization time. Durbin isn’t the only senator who’ll want to pore over what’s sure to be a lengthy deal. Even if text dropped hours from now, senators will almost surely want longer than two and a half days to consider permanent border policy changes. (Durbin estimated that members will want one or two days to read the text.)
- Some senators want amendment votes. That prospect would risk upending language that staff and lawmakers have painstakingly huddled over for weeks. Even Republican leaders who are likely to support the deal may be intent on amendment votes — and it’s not clear whether negotiators will unite to fight off any and all amendments: “That’s definitely above our pay grade. The process will be up to the leaders,” Murphy said.
Red-state Democratic Sen. Jon Tester (Mont.), an appropriator who’s facing a tough reelection, told reporters he’s looking forward to the details of the border security measures and that he supports whatever they might cost.
“So if you're going to secure the border, it takes resources,” he said. Then there’s the Johnson factor: Speaker Mike Johnson hasn’t signaled if he plans to put any Senate deal on the House floor. Johnson said in an interview last week that he’s waiting to weigh in until there’s bill text, warning that “it doesn’t sound good at the outset.” Lankford told reporters Monday that he’s not spoken to Johnson as of late about the deal — but that he did see the speaker at the March for Life over the weekend. Something else to consider… Patience seems to be wearing thin. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said — in a clear deadpan — that he’d take a deal “any time now.” Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said if there isn’t a deal by this week, that President Joe Biden should declare a national emergency at the border. — Ursula Perano, Burgess Everett and Daniella Diaz
| | | | A message from Instagram: New federal legislation will give parents a say in teen app downloads.
Giving parents a say in which apps are right for their teens helps them support their teens in having a positive experience online.
That’s why Instagram wants to work with Congress to require parental approval wherever teens under 16 download apps.
Learn more. | | | GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Monday, Jan. 22, where we hope you’re staying warm tonight! WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT THE SENATE’S DEAL We still don't know a lot about the final framework that Murphy, Lankford and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) have been working on. But in a change from recent weeks … we’ve learned some new things about it.
- A parole cap doesn’t seem to be happening, per Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.). He said Monday to instead expect “some changes that will be made in parole that I think will get out the abuse and misuse of it.”
- Some of those changes in parole — and asylum — appear to focus on how both claims are identified, per Manchin. He said “there has been an agreement on how we would identify first of all asylum and parole.” He declined to go into specifics.
— Ursula Perano and Burgess Everett VANCE ‘INTERESTED’ IN VP BUT SAYS IT’S TOO EARLY Sen. J.D. Vance isn’t dismissing the talk that he might end up Donald Trump’s running mate. The Ohio Republican, who is reportedly in the mix as Trump accelerates his churn toward the GOP nomination, said he’s “very interested” but thinks it’s too early to know for sure. “I've expressed a desire to help the president however he needs help. I think I’d be an important ally in the Senate. Obviously, if he asked me, I’d be very interested,” Vance said in an interview Monday. “My sense is he will not make a decision like that until much, much later in the process,” Vance added. “I talk to him a lot. I have not talked to him about VP.” Donald Trump Jr. told Newsmax last week he’d “love to see J.D. Vance” as a vice president, rattling off other names that his father might be considering. The former president told Fox News earlier this month he’d already decided on a running mate but won’t say who. Others reportedly in the running include Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders. — Daniella Diaz
| | | | GROWING IN THE GOLDEN STATE: POLITICO California is growing, reinforcing our role as the indispensable insider source for reporting on politics, policy and power. From the corridors of power in Sacramento and Los Angeles to the players and innovation hubs in Silicon Valley, we're your go-to for navigating the political landscape across the state. Exclusive scoops, essential daily newsletters, unmatched policy reporting and insights — POLITICO California is your key to unlocking Golden State politics. LEARN MORE. | | | | | WHY DEMS FEAR THE FISCAL COMMISSION When congressional veterans hear the term “bipartisan commission,” they often dismiss it as a toothless group, one that makes recommendations lawmakers will inevitably ignore. They’d be wrong to think that about the latest Republican-pushed fiscal commission, though. This one has bite — it would force the House and Senate to vote, without amendment or committee tweaks, on whatever bill the commission writes to shrink the national debt and keep Social Security and Medicare from insolvency. All the renewed chatter about cutting Social Security benefits is about this, the 25-page measure the House Budget Committee approved last week. That’s why many Democrats are fiercely against it. Fiscal hawks are calling on Speaker Mike Johnson to add the plan to whatever government funding package materializes before the new March shutdown deadlines. Such a group would be charged with finding a way to thwart looming insolvency for Social Security and Medicare by either cutting spending, raising taxes, or both. “Let's take some risk here. Let's do things differently,” says Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), who notably voted “nay” on the stopgap last week. Arrington is leading the call for Johnson to find a way to create the fiscal commission, arguing that it could be the only way to “avoid a catastrophic and irreparable debt-related crisis,” as the U.S. is now $34 trillion in the red, at 120 percent of GDP. Stated opposition: Democratic opponents say the proposal is a veiled attempt to slash Social Security and Medicare benefits, and that Congress should instead vote to increase revenue to the programs. Pennsylvania Rep. Brendan Boyle, ranking Democrat on the Budget Committee, said it’s “intellectual dishonesty” that some lawmakers are signaling they are “open to cutting Social Security and don’t want to come out and say it.” Well over 100 House lawmakers signed a letter this month urging Johnson and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to keep the plan out of any “must-pass” bills, including government funding packages. The letter cites three examples of prior fiscal commissions that recommended cutting or privatizing Social Security. On its own, the bill stands no chance of passing the Senate. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) is a fan of creating a fiscal commission, but other Democrats like Budget Chair Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) have accused Republicans of seeking to shrink the nation’s most popular entitlement program. — Jennifer Scholtes and Daniella Diaz
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | | | Rep. Pete Stauber (R-Minn.) is getting some heat for posting in favor of an infrastructure project that was funded by the Inflation Reduction Act — a law he didn’t vote for.
| | | | A message from Instagram:   | | | QUICK LINKS Louisiana man beat officers with baton during Jan. 6 riot, has been arrested, prosecutors say, from David J. Mitchell at The Advocate Charles O. Jones, Expert on Congress and the Presidency, Dies at 92, from Adam Nossiter at The New York Times Nancy Mace endorses Trump for president, flipping from earlier calls for 'new voice', from Anthony Adragna Once a Romney enclave, this New Hampshire town is turning into ‘Trump country’, from Samuel Benson at Deseret News TRANSITIONS Chloe Koseff is now special assistant in the Office of Science at the Department of Energy. She most recently was a legislative assistant for Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.). Andrea Porwoll is now the vice president in communications at Bullpen Strategy Group. She was previously the communications director for House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. TOMORROW IN CONGRESS The House is out. The Senate is in session.
| | | | A message from Instagram: Parents should be able to decide which apps are right for their teens.
Apps can teach teens skills or ignite their creativity. But with access to so many apps, parents should have a say in which ones their teens download.
That’s why Instagram wants to work with Congress to require parental approval wherever teens under 16 download apps.
Learn more. | | | TUESDAY AROUND THE HILL Quiet for now.
| | FRIDAY’S ANSWER: John Simpson correctly answered that Democratic Sens. Pat McCarran and Harry Reid were the two senators who held the same seat and were of the same party and have also been namesakes of the same airport in Las Vegas. TODAY’S QUESTION, from John: Which two NFL teams offered Gerald Ford a professional football contract? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com. GET INSIDE CONGRESS emailed to your phone each evening. Follow Daniella on X at @DaniellaMicaela. | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
