WHAT TO WATCH IN NY-3 If House Democrats win the special election to replace expelled Rep. George Santos at all, they’re feeling good heading into November. Mainly, that’s because of the last election in New York’s third district, when Santos beat Democrat Robert Zimmerman by 8 points. So, if former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi beats Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip, even by a slim margin, that’s a gain of at least 8 points over Zimmerman’s 2022 performance — critical numbers, especially given House Republicans’ thin majority. Democrats have at least one advantage that won’t apply to other races, though: Voters tend to penalize the party whose controversy forces a special election, according to a POLITICO analysis. Still, a Suozzi win could prove that Democrats’ brand in Long Island worked and that the party’s moderate candidates can still win seats in areas that Republicans swept in the 2022 midterms. Plus, this special election will have an outsized impact on how the House operates for the rest of the year, either giving Republicans another much needed vote in their incredibly thin majority or — if Suozzi prevails — shaving the GOP’s grip on the chamber to just two votes at full attendance. A few factors could make the difference as Democrats push for a big win. Here’s what we’re watching: The AAPI vote: We’re keeping a close eye on Asian American Pacific Islander (AAPI) voters. Rep. Grace Meng (D-N.Y.) — who represents the seat next door in Queens — estimates they represent between 18 and 24 percent of the district’s electorate. Meng has been active in rallying the diverse community, which generally swings towards Democrats but aren’t high-turnout voters. Illustrating just how influential that bloc could be in this election, Meng had to rebut misinformation on WeChat about her mom supporting Pilip. Suozzi has made pushes of his own, too, including hiring Asian-language staff and volunteers, pushing multilingual ads, and engaging in community outreach like dim sum events. Meng said that was critical outreach to Asian American voters. “I feel that within such a short span of time, Tom really has done everything he can to engage with the community,” she told us. “And so while we never know how effective that will be, he's done it the right way.” There’s snowplace like New York: It doesn’t take a meteorologist or political expert to tell you that rough weather on election day typically dampens turnout. More than six inches of heavy, wet snow blanketed much of Long Island and Queens Tuesday. Both campaigns were organizing rides to the polls for voters wary of getting behind the wheel themselves or trudging through the weather. Schools are closed and thousands are without power, which can easily shift voters’ priorities. Around 80,000 voters already cast ballots by Sunday in early and mail-in voting. But voters who waited until Election Day face snowy roads and cold feet. What it means for 2024: If Suozzi falls short in his comeback bid, then it could spell some trouble for Democrats as they try to recapture several Biden-won districts on Long Island this year. To be sure, some Democrats worked to temper expectations before results came out and cautioned how much to extrapolate from the results. Although the seats favored Biden in 2020, some local races on Long Island have swung recently towards the right too. Further complicating matters, a court ordered an independent redistricting commission to submit redrawn New York congressional lines by Feb. 28. That could massively change each party’s chances in several key races. — Daniella Diaz, Nicholas Wu and Katherine Tully-McManus
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