MANSIONS, MONEY AND MARYLAND The November election is less than nine months away, and the race for the Senate continues to evolve. Just in the last week, Republicans appeared to sidestep a potentially bruising primary in Montana and landed a key recruit in Wisconsin. Democrats remain on the defensive as they seek to keep their slim majority, having to defend seats in three states that voted for Donald Trump in 2020 and several other swing states while having limited offensive opportunities. Here’s some questions we’re pondering as the races continue to shape up: Can Republicans shake the carpetbagger charge? Three GOP Senate candidates in key races are already facing Democratic attacks centered on not being closely tied to the states they’re seeking to represent. It has been a potent line of attack in previous races — paging Mehmet Oz — and Dems are signaling it will be a central part of their message as November inches closer. In Wisconsin, Eric Hovde is facing questions about his ties to California, where he owns a lavish Orange County mansion, as he launches his candidacy this week against Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin, to run for Senate. Hovde, a Wisconsin native, purchased a home in Madison in 2011 after living in Washington, D.C., for 24 years. In Montana, Tim Sheehy is being pegged by Democrats as an “out-of-state tech millionaire … playing cowboy” as he takes on incumbent Jon Tester. But his campaign is leaning into the fact that Sheehy came to the Big Sky State by choice to make his home and launch his business after leaving the Marines. And in Pennsylvania, former hedge fund CEO David McCormick is making a second run, this time against incumbent Bob Casey, after narrowly losing the 2022 GOP primary to Oz. Dems are already planning to run a similar playbook against McCormick, who appeared to live primarily in Connecticut as recently as last year. Will Democrats get some help in the money hunt? Maryland voters won’t pick which Democrat will earn the chance to succeed longtime Sen. Ben Cardin (D) until May 14, but — as we laid out earlier this month — the stakes have gotten much higher since popular former GOP governor Larry Hogan entered the race. Now at stake in the primary is how much support national Democrats will have to give to their nominee: Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks has deep support in state party circles, but Rep. David Trone has deep pockets as the co-owner of a chain of wine superstores. He’s spent $23.3 million on his Senate bid through the end of last year and would be expected to keep spending to fend off Hogan. Alsobrooks, who is not independently wealthy, would likely need more significant backing from national party committees. Meanwhile in California, tens of millions of dollars of donations could be at stake on March 5. Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) has a commanding lead in nearly all public polls, and if Republican Steve Garvey edges out Democratic Reps. Katie Porter and Barbara Lee for second place in the top-two jungle primary, the race could be essentially over in the heavily Democratic state. That could mean scads of small-donor money that has poured into the coffers of Schiff, Porter and Lee could instead flow into other, more competitive races. Will Florida and Texas get competitive? Democrats are expecting to pour most of their resources into defending their seats in Ohio, Nevada, Michigan and the other states we’ve mentioned. But they are holding out hope that they might be able to give Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) a tough fight in November. Both seats are considered unlikely to flip by forecasters, but strong Democratic campaigns could force national GOP groups to divert resources from other, more competitive states. Those hopes rest on Rep. Colin Allred in Texas, who still has to win his primary on March 5 but has proven himself a strong fundraiser, and on former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in Florida, who has the most buzz as a Scott challenger ahead of the Sunshine State's August primary. And finally: What will Kyrsten Sinema do? The Arizona independent, who has so far refused to address her 2024 plans, has until April 1 to file for re-election — and scramble the emerging race pitting Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego against Republican Kari Lake. But keep in mind: Sinema will need to collect at least 42,000 voter signatures to run as an independent, and with less than six weeks from the deadline, there’s no sign she has started that process. — Daniella Diaz
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