What’s eating Erin O’Toole?

From: POLITICO Ottawa Playbook - Wednesday Jan 26,2022 11:01 am
A daily look inside Canadian politics and power.
Jan 26, 2022 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Zi-Ann Lum

WELCOME TO OTTAWA PLAYBOOK. I’m your host, ZI-ANN LUM with ANDY BLATCHFORD. Is it Festivus or is it the presentation of the Conservative’s long-awaited election review? JAMES CUMMING’s report lines up with another weekend event on the Hill that gives the party an opportunity to define how big its big blue tent really is.

DRIVING THE DAY

BLACK MIRRORS — Funny how many times you can experience déjà vu during a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic.

Conservative Leader ERIN O’TOOLE must be feeling that way these days. Global News reports an Alberta riding association has put forward a formal petition for a leadership review. A petition led by Sen. DENISE BATTERS, who O’Toole removed from the party’s national caucus after challenging his leadership, continues to collect signatures with 7,700 names racked up as of Tuesday evening.

Questions about O’Toole’s leadership will dominate in the coming days as the findings of former Tory MP JAMES CUMMING’s Conservatives election post-mort are expected to be presented to caucus tomorrow.

It’s hard to envisage a win for O’Toole in a week that will end with the Saturday arrival of a “freedom convoy” on Parliament Hill to protest the federal government’s vaccine mandate for cross-border truckers.

The date will mark a week since the U.S. Department of Homeland Security implemented its own mandate requiring all truck drivers entering the country to be vaccinated for Covid-19.

— Keep on trucking: While an overwhelming majority of truckers are vaccinated in Canada (90 percent, says the Canadian Trucking Alliance), the issue being presented to Canadians is that the vaccine mandate is irritating Canada’s supply chain in a high-inflation era.

As the convoy rolls closer to the capital, the scenario is playing out again like when the United We Roll protest came to town in February 2019 to advocate for the oil and gas sector and call on the government to scrap Bill C-69 and the carbon tax. The event attracted industry and pro-pipeline supporters — and also white nationalists.

People’s Party Leader MAXIME BERNIER applauded a “handful of Conservative MPs” on Tuesday for their positions on the vaccine mandate.

Yesterday, Transport Minister OMAR ALGHABRA was on the receiving end of a racist tweet from a high-profile convoy supporter, prompting Public Safety Minister MARCO MENDICINO to flag the comment to Twitter as “ flagrantly abusive, offensive and Islamophobic” hate speech.

— Unlike the last time: CTV’s GLEN MCGREGOR reports a video of convoy supporters calling for Jan. 6 Capitol Hill-style protest was yanked from YouTube for violating its hate speech policy.

BANK ON THIS — Governor TIFF MACKLEM will make his first public appearance of the year today. Markets are expecting the Bank of Canada to launch the country into its first rate-hiking cycle since the heady economic days of 2017-2018.

But not all forecasters think there will be a rate increase this morning. At the very least, however, the meeting is widely expected to tee up a hike for March.

Here’s POLITICO’s ANDY BLATCHFORD on the anticipation — and what comes next: Households are already carrying high levels of debt. All eyes will be on any fallout for the fire-hot real estate markets all across the country. Macklem is widely expected to increase the rate several times in 2022 — perhaps as many as a half-dozen times.

— For s, Andy explains how the monetary policy moves will influence politics.

ANOTHER REAWAKENING — Williams Lake First Nation announced Tuesday that ground-penetrating radar has revealed 93 sites of “potential human burials” near the St. Joseph’s Mission, a former B.C. residential school.

There’s much more work to do and the community has “every intention” of continuing its investigation, said Williams Lake First Nation Chief WILLIE SELLERS.

“For now, it’s important that everyone focus on their own wellness, and the wellness of those around them. I’m encouraging everyone to reach out to others, to engage in ceremony or to access the various supports available.”

BILL’S BACK — Former finance minister BILL MORNEAU says carbon pricing is the single biggest policy challenge facing Canada, one that will determine the fate of its energy transition. Morneau has kept a relatively low profile since resigning from public office in August 2020. He showed up on a virtual panel Tuesday hosted by Toronto-based climate policy think tank Clean Prosperity. The big question at hand: Can Canada reach its climate goals?

Not without long-term certainty around the pricing of carbon in this country, Morneau said.

“There's just no way for industry to play the role that it needs to play, for all of us to be engaged and doing the things that we need to do, if we don't have an understanding of what that pricing looks like over time.”

Ottawa has signaled that the national carbon price will increase to C$170 per tonne by 2030, but the rates beyond then are unclear. The finance department is under pressure to eliminate the uncertainty.

Morneau suggested the fate of Canada’s energy transition demands federal and provincial governments “work intensively” in a “respectful way to ensure that carbon pricing is increasingly consistent across the country.

“From my perspective, it's pretty close to all being about carbon pricing,” he said.

— Three ingredients for policy wins: Another former top insider, former deputy Cabinet secretary MATTHEW MENDELSOHN, joined the panel discussion with first-hand experience about tackling the Trudeau government’s ambitious agendas.

“Success on any big complex issue is always about getting three things right: It's about getting the politics right. It's about getting the policy right. But it's also about getting the implementation right.”

No shortcuts: Mendelsohn led Trudeau's “results and delivery” unit until his departure in spring 2020. He pointed to the Liberal government’s success with legalizing cannabis in 2018 as an example of how ambitious policies can be pulled off.

— Case study: “We developed the new focus structures to focus on cannabis implementation, where you had political staff and bureaucrats from 12 different departments meeting every week over the course of a year. … Climate change is going to require decades of work to continue to focus … it means setting up new routines, setting up new accountabilities, meeting regularly in a horizontal way … this is something that requires urgency for decades. And that's a huge challenge.”

AROUND THE HILL

HARD QUESTIONS — Former Canadian ambassador to China GUY SAINT-JACQUES is taking MPs’ questions today at the House industry committee’s study of critical minerals.

The federal government’s decision to waive a formal security review for a state-owned Chinese mining company’s takeover of Canadian lithium firm Neo Lithium Corp. triggered the committee’s work.

— Also on the witness list: Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association President FLAVIO VOLPE, Royal Roads University adjunct professor JEFFREY B. KUCHARSKI, Centre for International Governance Innovation Senior Fellow WESLEY WARK and Center for Strategic and International Studies’s Energy and Geopolitics Chair NIKOS TSAFOS.

— Committee preview: Wark told Andy the government’s decision to skip the natural security review is a “ grievous one that is just headshaking in nature.”

Despite the company’s lack of a real footprint in Canada, Wark said the firm is still subject to Canadian regulation and the investment act — and no one knows what its future might be. He found the lack of interest in giving up Neo Lithium’s intellectual property and know-how to a Chinese SOE “bizarre.” Read more from Wark in our Pro newsletter.

— Who’s on deck for Thursday : Innovation, Science and Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE.

LEAFLET LESSON LEARNED — Liberal MP GEORGE CHAHAL’s election flyer controversy comes to an end after he paid a C$500 fine for taking a Conservative candidate’s pamphlet from a front door.

PICS OR IT DIDN’T HAPPEN — In this new Parliament, federal politicians have been posting meeting receipts with gusto. We’re talking about the social cards and Zoom screengrabs of meetings accompanied by tweet-length readouts that state the obvious.

Then there are the #StandWithUkraine photos. Cabinet ministers HARJIT SAJJAN and MARY NG participated in the campaign to show their solidarity with the Ukrainian Canadian Congress. So did MARCO MENDICINO. But not Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU, National Defence Minister ANITA ANAND and Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY.

— That’s perhaps for the better: As former national security analyst STEPHANIE CARVIN put it: “ Holding signs up is not a foreign policy,” prompting Global News radio host ROB BREAKENRIDGE to offer an important reminder about the perils of posing with a piece of paper: “In the social media / meme era, it just seems unwise all around.”

HALLWAY CONVERSATION

What should be in the Conservative campaign review?

Sen. DENISE BATTERS, Saskatchewan senator and member of the Saskatchewan Conservative caucus: This review needs to be an honest and comprehensive effort that evaluates all the significant issues that arose in the last election, including the leader, the platform, and major flip-flops. Following Mr. O’Toole’s election loss, I continue my efforts to give Conservative Party members a voice in the leadership and future direction of our party.

KATE HARRISON, vice chair at Summa Strategies Canada: A thorough review should not hold back on putting any part of the campaign under the microscope. That said, it needs to be solutions oriented, with specific actions the Party should take to put the lessons learned to good use. Arguably, what Conservatives do after the review is more important than its actual contents. Otherwise, it's not much more than a written airing of grievances.

CHARLES BURTON, senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute and former diplomat at the Canadian Embassy in Beijing: The Conservatives need to avoid applying a narrow political calculus to issues like the threat posed by China and foreign interference into our elections. There needs to be a longer-term strategic lens that looks at the rapidly evolving international scene and earmarks clearly where Canada's interests are and how to defend them.

The issues that our country and our democracy face on the global stage are too significant to abandon, and polling demonstrates that significant segments of Canada's voting population — in particular, Conservative voters themselves — care deeply about these issues.

PAPER TRAIL

60,480 VIALS ON ORDER — An award notice was posted Tuesday for a bulk order of medication used to treat bacterial infections. The actual description on the tender was more interesting : “The Strategic Medical Countermeasures Program on behalf of the Canadian Forces Health Services Group, has a requirement for Doxycycline Hyclate for injection, 100mg, for the treatment of Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) members who may have been exposed to bacterial biological warfare agents to be delivered to Petawawa, Ontario.”

ASK US ANYTHING

What are you hearing that you need Playbook to know? Any questions about Parliament? Send it all our way.

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

— 10:30 a.m. Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will attend a virtual Cabinet retreat. He will hold a media availability in West Block at 4:30 p.m.

— 10:30 a.m. Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND will attend a virtual Cabinet retreat.

— 10 a.m. Bank of Canada Governor TIFF MACKLEM will reveal his bank rate decision at 10 and take questions from reporters an hour later. The bank will also release its updated forecasts with the release of its quarterly Monetary Policy Report.

— 2:30 p.m. The House industry committee will continue its study of the pending takeover of a Canadian lithium mining company by a Chinese state-owned firm.

— 2:30 p.m. U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman JEROME POWELL holds a virtual news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

MEDIA ROOM

CURSE OF POLITICS offers up a postmortem on the Conservative campaign.

THE BACKBENCH pod considers NDP woes.

— The Globe’s GREG MERCER reports from Antigonish where a Covid surge in December was linked to Nova Scotia’s St. FX X-Ring celebrations. “The outbreak has exposed deep rifts in the college town, and has many demanding more accountability from the university on the hill,” he writes.

— Climate scientists KATHRYN HARRISON and SIMON DONNER argue that more important than optimism is “the courage to act, despite uncertainty about the outcome.”

— The Globe’s KELLY GRANT showed up on THE DECIBEL to talk about elder care in Nunavut.

— APTN’s EMELIA FOURNIER reports on the mutual understanding reached between Cree and Innu chiefs concerning caribou in Northern Quebec.

— And from KATHRYN MAY in Policy Options: Ottawa races to collect Phoenix overpayments ahead of deadline.

PROZONE

If you’re a POLITICO Pro , don’t miss the latest edition of our afternoon policy newsletter via ANDY BLATCHFORD: Neo Lithium ‘headshaker.’ Witness previews INDU testimony.

In other headlines for Pros: 
Canada orders dependents of embassy staff to leave Ukraine.
U.S. warns of crippling export controls if Russia invades Ukraine.
Study: Rebates have not defused Canada's carbon tax debate.
NASA’s experimental planes throttle up.
FTC moves to block Lockheed Martin-Aerojet mega merger.

THE BUZZ

Birthdays: WAYNE GRETZKY is 60 today. That is all.

Spotted: Canadian American Business Council CEO SCOTTY GREENWOOD, zooming with DAVID COHEN . (Only weeks after his confirmation hearings, the new U.S. ambo to Canada made an appearance at Greenwood's CABC gala dinner in Washington.)

Former PMO top policy wonk MIKE MCNAIR, now an associate partner at McKinsey, hailing the firm's "landmark report" into the "massive capital investment" required globally to hit net-zero goals. … The Canadian Armed Forces, prepping for training in sunny Key West. Key to-do item: booking hotel rooms.

British High Commissioner SUSANNAH GOSHKO celebrating Robbie Burns Day with scotch and wee haggis tarts “ topped with neeps and tatties.”

Movers and shakers: TRACY ROBINSON has been named the new CEO of CN Rail, the first woman to run that railway. … The Quebec government is hiring a trade attaché in Atlanta.

The LGBT Purge Fund has announced the jury for the LGBTQ2+ National Monument: AARON BETSKY, MAYA DESAI, MICHELLE DOUGLAS, GRANT FAHLGREN, BRENT HAWKES, BERNARD LAMARCHE, ANN-MARIE MACDONALD, COURTNAY MCFARLANE, MARTINE ROY and MEGAN TORZA.

Media mentions: SHEILA NORTH is the new anchor for CBC Winnipeg Late Night. She recently served as Grand Chief of Manitoba Keewatinowi Okimakanak.

Farewells: CLYDE SANGER has died. “He was a friend and mentor to generations of young journalists and writers, always willing to help, always generous with his time and full of questions,” read an obituary shared by Carleton University where he taught for two decades.

TRIVIA

If you're still hoping to join Politico Canada's second virtual trivia night on Thursday, you may be out of luck. Last we checked, there was one table remaining. That means a packed house. Among the new teams: Environmental Defence, The Walrus, Crestview Strategy, the National Council on Business Issues, and The Points of Order (helmed by none other than WYATT SHARPE).

Desperate to join? Email us at ottawaplaybook@politico.com and we'll see if we can fit you in.

Tuesday’s answer: ARIELLE KAYABAGA previously served as a city councilor in London, Ont. She has said that the housing crisis inspired her jump to federal politics.

Props to DAVID VALENTIN, ALAN KAN, BOB GORDON, JOHN GUOBA, PAM HRICK, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, DOROTHY MCCABE, MICHAEL MACDONALD, SHANNON SOMMERAUER, BRAM ABRAMSON, LEIGH LAMPERT and BOB ERNEST.

BRANDON VAN DAM got the bonus.

Liberal MP GREG FERGUS also answered correctly. He recalled his caucus colleague being driven to run for office by Covid-19 and its disproportionate effects on BIPOC Canadians: "She's a good friend of mine, so I feel like I am cheating in answering these questions!"

Wednesday’s question: Which rookie MP won their party’s riding nomination by a coin toss?

Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Alejandra Waase to find out how: awaase@politico.com.

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