Reading into Biden’s shout out to Canada

From: POLITICO Ottawa Playbook - Wednesday Mar 02,2022 11:01 am
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Ottawa Playbook

By Zi-Ann Lum

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WELCOME TO OTTAWA PLAYBOOK. I’m your host, Zi-Ann Lum with Nick Taylor-Vaisey. It’s TIFF MACKLEM’s day. The Bank of Canada governor is expected to raise the benchmark interest rate this morning for the first time in years. The advent of higher rates shouldn’t surprise anyone with inflation going up — especially because Macklem warned Canadians this day would eventually come. Also, ANDREW LESLIE explains why the Russia-Ukraine conflict is “the most important thing we’ve involved in right now.”

Talk of the town

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DRIVING THE DAY

President Biden.

President Biden during last night's State of the Union address. Vice President Kamala Harris and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) were behind him. | Jim Lo Scalzo/Pool/Getty Images

THE AMERICA IN NORTH AMERICA — Canada, were your ears burning? There was a singular mention of “Canada'' in President JOE BIDEN’s State of the Union address last night.

It was in his shout out to countries banding together to hold Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN accountable for his actions in Ukraine. “Even Switzerland,” Biden said.

From POLITICO: Biden promises punishment for Putin, pledges to lessen impact on U.S.

The first section of Biden’s speech focused on Putin and diplomacy. The remainder of the SOTU address, for Canadians watching, delivered repeated promises to make X in America.

“Make more cars and semiconductors in America. More infrastructure and innovation in America. More goods moving faster and cheaper in America. More jobs where you can earn a good living in America,” he said.

“And instead of relying on foreign supply chains, let’s make it in America.”

That last line spurred tremendous applause from the packed Covid-tested audience inside the House of Representatives, chanting, “USA! USA! USA!”

— Trade disputes, ahoy: Biden’s pledge to “make more cars and semiconductors in America” may have delighted U.S. automakers, perhaps less so in the offices of International Trade Minister MARY NG and her counterpart, Mexico’s Economy Secretary TATIANA CLOUTHIER CARRILLO.

Both countries have threatened retaliation against the U.S. over a proposed EV tax credit favoring American-made vehicles over ones assembled via a North American supply chain.

Related reading: Biden to America: ‘We’re going to be OK.’

More on the Canadian read of the SOTU below, but first more sanctions against Russia are coming.

Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland leaves a news conference on November 30, 2020.

Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland leaves a news conference on November 30, 2020. | Adrian Wyld/CP

CANADIAN STAKES — Strong words from Canada have drawn the ire of the Russian embassy, calling criticism against the invasion of Ukraine to be predictable “Goebbels-style Western propaganda.”

The statement arrived hours after Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND sharpened her language against Putin.

“He wants to behave like a communist dictator. He and his entourage had thought they could do that and continue to enjoy all of the fruits of global capitalism. What the world decided really, really clearly … is you don't get to do that,” Freeland told reporters Tuesday.

“If you make war on the rules-based international order, we're going to cut you out of the global economy. I don't think that that is the deal that Putin's entourage signed up for.”

Freeland set expectations for Canadians that there could be some “collateral damage” in Canada as G-7 countries escalate economic measures against Russia. It’s been a topic among G-7 finance ministers, she said.

“We said in order to be really effective, in order to really have an impact, we are going to have to be prepared for there to be some adverse consequences for our own economies,” Freeland said, adding it’s a reality check that rings truer for Europe than for Canada.

Follow POLITICO’s live blog coverage below for the latest developments and analysis.

HINDSIGHT AND FORESIGHT — Canada’s shipment of 100 Carl-Gustaf anti-tank weapons shows Ottawa beginning to “respond very well” to Russian threats after a “very slow start” from a military perspective, retired Canadian Forces Lt. Gen. ANDREW LESLIE told Playbook.

“It's not small arms, it's anti-tank systems, relatively simple to use anti-tank systems, which will help the Ukrainian defenders,” Leslie said.

After a 35-year career in the military, Leslie jumped into federal politics in 2015, representing the riding of Orléans until the 2019 election. He has been awarded service decorations for “outstanding leadership” after serving in Croatia and Afghanistan.

While economic sanctions are good, he said it's potential use of force that has Putin’s attention. Leslie explained if Ukraine’s allies fail to assemble a hard deterrence, the odds of Putin making another miscalculation increases.

Putin underestimated Ukrainians and President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, writes POLITICO’s ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH.

As the adage goes: Desperate people do desperate things. “And Putin will be desperate at that point,” Leslie said, adding narrowing options could push the Russian president to try to penetrate NATO, triggering Article 5, the alliance’s collective defence clause.

Canada must do more “because we are close to a world war,” he said. The former soldier found it surreal uttering the words “nuclear threat.”

“It's just staggering that we're talking about this in the year 2022,” he said.

— Brass tacks: Canada has 1,260 Canadian Armed Forces personnel deployed for Operation REASSURANCE to bolster NATO’s presence in Central and Eastern Europe. Defence Minister ANITA ANAND has said an additional 3,400 Canadian troops are on standby.

It will take Russia some time to get troops across Ukraine and against the NATO border, Leslie said. “The Ukrainian people are putting up a hell of a good fight” but are being attacked from four different pockets, he said. Two from the east, one from the north with Belarus and from the south with Crimea.

Western countries have some time, but not a lot, said the former CAF chief of land staff, “20 to 30 days” to coordinate deterrence. “Ukrainian forces, no matter how brave, are fighting a war in which they're positionally disadvantaged, because they're defending, and the Russian intent is to encircle.”

From POLITICO: Zelenskyy appoints general to defend Kyiv as Russians claim gains in south.

Retired General RICK HILLIER went on Power & Politics Tuesday and called for a no-fly zone over Ukraine. But a Western-backed no-fly zone over Ukraine carries the risk of possible nuclear escalation, Leslie told Playbook. “So NATO has got to walk a fine line between reinforcing the brave fighters in Ukraine without initiating a nuclear threshold.”

“They should be moving now,” Leslie said.

HALLWAY CONVERSATION

To help parse what Biden’s SOTU address means for Canadians, Playbook asked a trio of U.S.-Canada experts what struck them most from the president’s speech.

MARYSCOTT GREENWOOD, CEO of the Canadian American Business Council : Canada was first mentioned in the context of the effort to stand with Ukraine, the effort against Russia. That's important because it's easy to forget sometimes for people who do Canada-U.S. relations that the Canada-U.S. relationship is not just a bilateral one. But it's also about how Canada and the United States collaborate on the great global challenges.

While it's difficult for Canadians to hear all of that Buy American rhetoric, without an acknowledgement of how integrated we are, it's understandable in the context of the State of the Union. In other words, I'm not sure we would expect a president to get into the weeds of a potential carve out for North American partners.

It's pretty clear in the mind of the president that Canada is an enormously important partner on the big global challenges. And because of that, I think we'll be able to work through some of the more challenging bilateral trade views.

AMBARISH CHANDRA, associate economics professor at the University of Toronto: Buy American. This is standard red-meat in any SOTU, but Biden really emphasized the point with repeated references to not relying on “foreign supply chains,” making goods in America, and enforcing laws that “taxpayers' dollars support American jobs and businesses.”

Traditionally, Canada has been able to lobby for exemptions, but there's no guarantee that will continue. The nationalistic scramble for PPE and vaccines during the pandemic, and the recent disruption to the Ambassador Bridge, will make it easy for American lawmakers to argue that they should rely less on other countries, including Canada.

The focus on border measures and enforcement (“new technology”): While the obvious reference is to the southern border, Canada should be concerned the U.S. will continue to pursue Title 42, which uses pandemic-related justifications to deport immigrants. In order to make this work, the government must continue to treat all foreign arrivals as potential sources of disease, which suggests no imminent relaxation of rules requiring travelers to the U.S. to be vaccinated and to take-pre-departure tests.

This will delay full normalization of the U.S.-Canada border, and will continue to affect Canadian businesses that rely on tourism as Americans will be reluctant to travel as long as these measures are in force.

DAN UJCZO, senior counsel at Thompson Hine : As someone who lives in Ohio and only a couple of miles from the proposed Intel facility highlighted in the speech, I believe the president’s comments on manufacturing and ending the “rust belt” label are welcome and well-received in our neck of the woods.

However, from Buy American to localizing supply chains, the Administration’s proposed U.S.-only solution is of concern as it is too narrowly focused.

Our hope is that the Administration learns from the example of the past couple of weeks — that is, working with allies such as Canada is the best course of action to building back better, not only on national security issues such as Ukraine but on economic security issues like energy, EVs, advanced manufacturing, Covid-19 responses, climate concerns and so much more.

On the Hill

THE OTHER HILL — Rep. BRIAN HIGGINS (D-N.Y.) took to the floor of the House of Representatives to call on both U.S. and Canadian governments to scrap all remaining “disjointed and prohibitive” pandemic border restrictions.

“Increased vaccination rates in the United States, Canada and around the world show that communities who have done the right thing and followed the science can return to a watchful sense of normalcy,” Higgins said.

AT THE POLISH BORDER — Playbook is keeping in touch with the Safi family of Afghan refugees who are stuck in Ukraine, but determined to build a new life in Canada. The Safis spent Tuesday night on the floor of an abandoned school in Shehyni, near the Polish border town of Medyka.

Mir and Kamila Safi's six-day-old baby, Sumyya, was showing signs of jaundice.

NDP MP JENNY KWAN , the party's critic for immigration and refugees, is reviewing the family's file. She tells Playbook what Ottawa should be doing to ensure families like the Safis, fleeing their second war in six months, are able to get to Canada as soon as possible.

"The federal government must work with the UN Refugee Agency and NGOs to urgently help resettle Afghan refugees," she said, adding the feds should provide transportation for prospective asylum claimants and "think outside the box" on how to bring them to safety — including waiving documentation requirements until they arrive in this country.

ASK US ANYTHING

What are you hearing that you need Playbook to know? Any questions about Parliament? Send it all our way.  

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

10 a.m. The Bank of Canada is almost certain to raise its benchmark interest rate today.

10 a.m. Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will attend the Liberals’ national caucus meeting and will participate in question period at 2 p.m.

9 a.m. Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET and his party’s environment and climate change critics, MONIQUE PAUZÉ and KRISTINA MICHAUD , will hold a press conference to address energy issues in Europe.

9:15 a.m. NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH meets with World Refugee & Migration Council Chair LLOYD AXWORTHY and its president, FEN OSLER HAMPSON , and will attend his party’s national caucus meeting at 10 a.m. He will also hold a press conference at 12:30 p.m.

3:30 p.m. Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON will appear at the natural resources committee meeting with nine assistant deputy ministers to answer MPs’ questions.

6:30 p.m. Former Bank of Governor STEPHEN POLOZ and the Superintendent of Financial Institutions’ PETER ROUTLEDGE are witnesses at the Senate’s banking, trade and commerce committee.

PAPER TRAIL

TAX SEASON — As a weary nation procrastinates on filling out annual returns, the busy-bee bureaucrats at the Department of Finance published a detailed look at all the tax breaks that have eased our collective CRA anxiety — and come at a cost.

— Hot market: In 2019, 446,000 individuals claimed the exemption on capital gains on the sale of a principal residence. That added up to C$5.1 billion. Ottawa is prepping for a bigger hit in 2020 — C$7.9 billion — and bigger still in 2021, when the estimate sits at C$10.6 billion.

— The price of politics: No surprise that in an election year, more Canadians claimed their political donations at tax time. An estimated 214,500 filers checked that box in 2019 at a cost of about C$45 million. Finance planned for a similar total in 2021. The department's projections don't appear to anticipate a vote before 2024.

— Local heroes: 43,000 volunteer firefighters claimed this tax credit introduced by the Harper government in 2011 — about C$348.84 per claimant in 2019.

FROM THE TENDERS — Ernst & Young has been awarded a C$644,500 consulting contract from Industry Canada to help with a “strategic and operational support for the implementation of a hybrid workforce as part of the Return to Work/Future of Work initiative.”

MEDIA ROOM

— POLITICO looks at the case against Vladimir Putin. 

ADNAN KHAN of Maclean’s talks to defense studies expert ERIC OUELLET about the potential for insurgency in Ukraine. Q. What was Putin thinking? A. Ouellet: “He really thought Russia would do a blitzkrieg and it would be over. He was like the Borg in Star Trek, saying: You will be assimilated; resistance is futile.”

— The Star’s ALTHIA RAJ outlines the choice ahead for the Conservatives.

— “Feels like election season in Alberta,” DAVE COURNOYER writes. 

The Curse of Politics opens with conversation of JEAN CHAREST and his potential Conservative leadership bid. The pod gets around to discussing SCOTT REID’s recent Globe piece: “Canada’s next federal election will be a culture war. It’s inevitable.”

— On CBC’s UNRESERVED: Re-building the child welfare system through 'heart work' and home.

PROZONE

If you’re a POLITICO Pro , don’t miss our latest policy newsletter: 'Last gasp of a failing kleptocracy.’

In other headlines for Pros:
U.N. group will seek global treaty to tackle plastic pollution.
Social media goes to war.
USTR says no quick fix to China challenge.
Gas pipelines pose a growing cyber risk for U.S. power supply.
Behind the push to freeze Moscow’s foreign cash.

THE BUZZ

Birthdays: HBD to former Ontario cabinet minister ROD PHIILLIPS. Senators ROSE-MAY POIRIER and YUEN PAU WOO also celebrate today.

Spotted: P.E.I. potato farmers dining with International Trade Minister MARY NG, her chief of staff JASON EASTON, PMO’s BRIAN CLOW, Canadian American Business Council’s SCOTTY GREENWOOD, CTV News’ Ottawa bureau chief JOYCE NAPIER, NEIL MACDONALD.

Think tanks, fighting … Former Edmonton mayor DON IVESONgetting salty with Alberta Premier JASON KENNEY.

Sen. PETER HARDER to Putin ally IGOR SHUVALOV: “This bloodshed isn’t what one does to cousins.”

THOMAS D’AQUINO giving thumbs up to a new book from former Bank of Canada governor STEPHEN POLOZ:The Next Age of Uncertainty: How the World Can Adapt to a Riskier Future.

The City of Prince George’s crude, but educational, hand-drawn “anatomy of a pothole” illustration. h/t CBC’s ANDREW KURJATA

CBC News’ SAŠA PETRICIC, outside Canada’s embassy in Beijing, documenting the installation of a “We stand with Ukraine” sign.

Movers and shakers: INU MANAK joins the Council on Foreign Relations as a trade policy fellowCLAIRE SEABORN, Natural Resource Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON’s chief of staff, is part of the Michael Garron Hospital Foundation’s new Impact Council.

The Canadian Digital Service is searching for a new CEO and COO ANATOLE PAPADOPOULOS has the details.

Media mentions: Globe and Mail’s ANDREW COYNE and CBC News’ JUDY TRINH are headlining a Council for the Americas panel Thursday about the impact of Ottawa’s convoy.

HOUSE BUSINESS

12 p.m. Members of the Senate’s Aboriginal Peoples committee are studying Sen. MARY JANE MCCALLUM’s bill respecting National Ribbon Skirt Day. On the witness list: Cote First Nation Chief GEORGE COTE, Les Femmes Michif Otipemisiwak President MELANIE OMENIHO and the Native Women's Association of Canada’s LISA SMITH.

3:30 p.m. Vice Adm. SCOTT BISHOP, Canada’s military representative to NATO, CAF, is a witness at the House national defence committee.

3:30 p.m. The impact of Rogers’ takeover of Shaw on local news is on the agenda of the House heritage committee today. Rogers executives COLETTE WATSON and PAMELA DINSMORE are on the witness list.

3:30 p.m. Francophone immigration is the topic of study for today’s House official languages committee meeting.

3:30 p.m. The House health committee continues its study of Canada’s health workforce.

4 p.m. The Senate social affairs, science and technology committee meet to study Bill S-209, An Act respecting Pandemic Observance Day.

4:15 p.m.ANDRÉ BOILEAU, the officer in charge of the RCMP’s National Child Exploitation Crime Centre is a witness at today’s Senate legal and constitutional affairs meeting, studying the “Protecting Young Persons from Exposure to Pornography Act.”

6:30 p.m. Public Safety and Transport Canada officials are at the Senate’s transport and communications meeting to take senators’ questions about the impacts of climate change.

Behind closed doors : MPs on the House committee on international trade meet in-camera to consider a draft report after its study of Canada-U.S. relations.

TRIVIA

VIRTUAL THROWDOWN — We're gearing up for our third Playbook Virtual Trivia Night on March 10 at 8 eastern. BROCK STEPHENSON shared the crown with the RIDDELL RIDDLERS at the end of January. CRESTVIEW STRATEGY debuted with a podium finish. The H+KILLERS finished a respectable fourth.

We still have tables looking to be reserved. Drop us a line at ottawaplaybook@politico.com to secure your spot.

Tuesday’s answer: MONIQUE BĖGIN said of the 1970 Royal Commission on the Status of Women: “One very, very important topic and a major topic in feminism today is all forms of violence to women. It was never mentioned in our public hearings.”

Props to STEPHEN HAAS, SHEILA GERVAIS, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, BOB GOROON, STEPHEN HARRIS, MICHAEL MACDONALD, NICK MASCIANTONIO, STEPHEN HARRIS, MICHAEL MACDONALD, JOHN ECKER and CULLY ROBINSON. 

Wednesday’s question: What is the official flower of Yukon? For bonus marks, tell us something about it.

Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

 

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