March madness

From: POLITICO Ottawa Playbook - Monday Mar 21,2022 10:01 am
A daily look inside Canadian politics and power.
Mar 21, 2022 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Nick Taylor-Vaisey, Andy Blatchford and Sue Allan

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Welcome to Ottawa Playbook. I'm your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey with Andy Blatchford and Sue Allan. Playbook reports from cottage country, where we witnessed MP SCOTT AITCHISON formally launch a leadership bid on Sunday. MICHELLE REMPEL GARNER also made a splash over the weekend. And we ask an opinionated Tory to weigh in on the race so far.

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Driving the Day

Scott Aitchison's campaign launch at Canvas Brewery in Huntsville, Ontario

Scott Aitchison's campaign launch at Canvas Brewery in Huntsville, Ontario | Nick Taylor-Vaisey/POLITICO

GREETINGS FROM MUSKOKA — It's not lost on SCOTT AITCHISON that he's an underdog candidate for the Tory leadership. He joked Sunday about the "audacity of some dude from rural Ontario" running for the job. He knows he might be dismissed or attacked.

But he's staking out turf as a unifier who can bring together everyone in his midst — first his fellow party members, and then the country. The next leader inevitably has to do both.

Aitchison launched his bid at a craft brewery in Huntsville, Ontario, a town he says raised him when he left home as a 15-year-old. He was elected to town council six years later, and served as mayor from 2014 until his federal run in 2019.

The crowd was modest, numbering in the dozens, but enthusiastic. His supporters sat and stood armed with signs. His longtime council colleague, FRAN COLEMAN, warmly introduced him. These were his people. The challenge: finding more Huntsvilles.

— Confidence: PIERRE POILIEVRE 's juggernaut has organizers everywhere. Aitchison doesn't have the consultant class or traditional power brokers on his side, but his campaign insists there's momentum in the air. They're not worried about raising the C$300,000 he'll need to officially enter the race. They're confident that someone like Aitchison can sell memberships across Canada, one small room at a time.

— Thesis statement: "I am dismayed by the energy wasted on political games instead of getting things done."

— His first endorsement: That'd be ERIC MELILLO, the 23-year-old Baby of the House — i.e. youngest MP — who represents Kenora in northwestern Ontario. Melillo told Playbook he and Aitchison started talking about a potential candidacy a couple of months ago, and more seriously after ERIN O'TOOLE's ouster last month.

Melillo beat Liberal MP BOB NAULT in 2019 and held the seat last September. He sits in CANDICE BERGEN's shadow Cabinet as critic for the Federal Economic Development Agency for Northern Ontario.

— The team: Aitchison's campaign manager is JAMIE ELLERTON , a well-known Conservative campaigner and strategist in Toronto and Ottawa. Ellerton served a long stint as a senior JASON KENNEY aide. He also worked for TIM HUDAK when he was leader of the opposition at Queen's Park.

BEN SMITH is running comms for Aitchison. Smith ran for the Tories in Markham-Stouffville last year, finishing second to HELENA JACZEK — the Liberal incumbent promptly promoted to Cabinet in October.

ANOTHER CANDIDATE — B.C. MP MARC DALTON also threw his hat in the ring on Sunday. His first order of business as PM would be calling a public inquiry into the government's handling of the pandemic.

WESTERN CRED — The consensus western candidate in the Tory leadership race is Poilievre, but GTA mayor PATRICK BROWN made a splash over the weekend when he named MICHELLE REMPEL GARNER a national campaign co-chair.

"Nothing unites Conservatives like winning, so we need to pick someone who can win a general election," she tweeted. "Patrick wins as a Conservative in parts of the country where our movement needs to grow, and just released [a] strong plan for Western Canada. Giddyup."

— West-of-center platform: It's not uncommon for a politician to release a platform exclusively for Quebecers, such is the value of that province on the electoral map. Brown's team has pumped one out for the other side of the country.

Ottawa journalists got their hackles up at Brown's intent to expand Press Gallery membership to reporters outside the capital. (The prime minister, some noted, has zero percent control over who gets to report on the Hill.)

OPPO AMMO — The return of the House after a two-week break opens with the opposition holding the reins — and wielding a pair of potential wedges that could give Liberals headaches.

— Wedge #1: New Democrats will table their first opposition motion today. They're zeroing in on the rising cost of living and hoping to call the Liberals on a pair of campaign promises.

The NDP will call for a new 3 percent surtax on big-box stores and oil and gas companies that rake in more than C$1 billion in annual profits. Liberals committed to a similar surtax on banks and insurers.

The NDP also wants a publicly accessible beneficial ownership registry that would shed light on the people who ultimately control corporations — not the corporations or trusts that might be listed as legal owners.

The Liberals first promised a public registry in last year's budget, and re-promised it in their election platform.

— Wedge #2: After question period, the Commons will vote on a Tory oppo motion that was debated before the House rose for two weeks.

The first two of the motion's three clauses are uncontroversial. They call on the House to condemn VLADIMIR PUTIN and support the people of Ukraine.

The third clause is a different story. It wants the feds to "ensure new natural gas pipelines can be approved and built to Atlantic tidewater, recognizing energy as vital to Canadian and European defense and security, allowing Canadian natural gas to displace Russian natural gas in Europe…"

But wait, there's more. The motion claims gas exports are "consistent with environmental goals in the transition to non-emitting sources of energy." No matter how the vote goes down, expect the Tories to weaponize it in question period.

HALLWAY CONVERSATION

There's a month left before the Conservative leadership entry deadline. Playbook asked MICHAEL DIAMOND, a neutral observer of the race who previously ran campaigns that delivered DOUG FORD the PC leadership and the premier's office, to size up the candidates so far. Here's what he had to say:

LESLYN LEWIS — Lewis's major strength is intelligence, likeability and relatability. It was her calling card in 2020, and it's why she has remained a massively popular figure in the party since then.

— Her biggest weakness: Media and others have tried to pigeonhole Lewis as a “social conservative.” There is nothing wrong with that, but she is not a one-dimensional candidate and is possibly hindered and limited by this appearance.

PIERRE POILIEVRE — No one seems to get the zeitgeist of the party membership like Poilievre. It’s why he has built a massive pan-Canadian fundraising apparatus, a huge social media following, and is the early frontrunner in this race.

— His biggest weakness: Poilievre attacks every issue with great zeal, and although it has made him a star, other candidates will try and paint him as only an attack dog.

PATRICK BROWN — Brown is well known to be the energizer bunny of Canadian politics. He has massive appeal in Canada’s diverse ethno-cultural communities, and has proven time and again to be more resilient than Richard Nixon. Do not underestimate him.

— His biggest weakness: Patrick’s vulnerabilities in the race are also well known.

His flipflops as Ontario PC leader on sex ed and the carbon tax hurt his credbility and make him a non-starter with many social conservatives. Issues surrounding candidate nominations during that time are also ripe for the picking for opponents.

JEAN CHAREST — If I were Charest, I would speak of nothing but national unity, experience, and healing a divided nation. He has unlimited credibility on national unity and should focus more on that.

— His biggest weakness: The weaknesses plaguing the campaign seems to be a lack of organization — partially because of an atrophied political apparatus and ahistorical attacks calling him a “Liberal.”

SCOTT AITCHISON — Let’s be real — this is a campaign about raising profile and not winning the leadership, so the stakes are low for Aitchison. He is a smart and likable fellow, and will do well in beating low expectations.

— His biggest weakness: In a word, he's unknown.

ROMAN BABER — Baber has a compelling Canadian story, he is full of passion, and is clearly running to advance an issue — opposition to Covid restrictions — and not himself. Although it is easy to disagree with much of what he has stood for over the last two years, there is a constituency for someone standing up for them. He will benefit from that.

— His biggest weakness: Outside of Ontario and a very select anti-Covid restriction constituency, Baber is unknown and will face an uphill battle.

CONSERVATIVE CORNER

— DAVID REEVELY: “The future of the party” — tweeted in reference to a screenshot of a “Zoom-in” shared by JEAN CHAREST featuring, well … see for yourself.

— The latest from CHANTAL HÉBERT: Think PIERRE POILIEVRE is a loser? That’s what they said about STEPHEN HARPER.

— Here’s WARREN KINSELLA in The Sun: “At this point, Charest is winning.”

ALTHIA RAJ: “Far from a household name, [SCOTT] AITCHISON is barely known even to his caucus mates.”   Ouch.

— HUB DIALOGUE: SEAN SPEER, STUART THOMSON and RUDYARD GRIFFITHS shared notes on the race. One observation: It’s not as nasty as the mainstream media would have you believe.

— DON IVESON on Charest: “I’ve met him and he’s better than this,” the former Edmonton mayor shared after the candidate took Trudeau to task for “wedge-style politics that preys on fear, emboldens anger and tolerates misinformation.”

For your radar

CANADA VS. DISINFORMATION — Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY will address the Montreal Council on Foreign Relations this morning. It’s her latest stop in a blitz of interviews and events to discuss Canada’s response to the war in Ukraine. Her speech in Montreal at 8 a.m. ET will kick off a big week for Canadian foreign policy.

JUSTIN TRUDEAU will travel to Brussels this week to meet with NATO, G-7 and European Union leaders to figure out what to do next to stop VLADIMIR PUTIN’s invasion.

Joly sat down for 50 minutes Friday with noted international relations expert JANICE STEIN for one of her first lengthy public discussions on Canadian foreign policy since she took over the role last fall. The event was hosted by the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy, of which Stein was founding director.

— Canada’s eyeing ‘bad actors’: Beyond sanctions, humanitarian aid and weapons shipments in support of Ukraine, Joly hinted Friday that Canada is preparing to take on social media platforms. She argued the companies are doing too little to prevent propaganda and to counter disinformation.

“They're not technological companies, they're content producers,” Joly told Stein. “And they have a responsibility and they have to step up to the plate. That's what I will be addressing in the coming weeks because it's important Canada takes that issue to the world.”

— Where’s this going?: Joly offered few clues on where exactly Canada might be headed on this. But she’s raised the issue of disinformation within the G-7 and recently had a long conversation with HILLARY CLINTON about it.

“Social media, the virtual reality, is part of our everyday life at this point, that's where we get our information,” she said. “But there are some bad actors — and these bad actors cannot spoil the environment … in the virtual world.”

ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR

YOU ARE INVITED — On March 30 at 12 p.m. ET, POLITICO Canada will host a Twitter Space with some smart people who know what it takes to build a budget:

— SAHIR KHAN, executive vice-president at the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy and a former PCO economic and financial adviser.

— ROBERT ASSELIN, the senior vice-president of policy at the Business Council of Canada and former adviser to BILL MORNEAU. 

— REBEKAH YOUNG, the director of fiscal and provincial economics at Scotiabank and a former senior official at the Department of Finance;

Stay tuned for more details.

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

— Ontario Premier DOUG FORD is headed to Washington. Ford and his economic development and trade minister, VID FEDELI, will meet with Canadian ambo KIRSTEN HILLMAN and MARISA LAGO , the undersecretary of commerce for international trade. Also on the agenda: DANIEL WATSON, the assistant U.S. trade rep for the western hemisphere.

Ford and Fedeli will also join a roundtable convened by SCOTTY GREENWOOD's ubiquitous Canadian American Business Council. They'll bring members of their competitiveness council, including interim chair GOLDY HYDER.

— Hyder, who heads up the Business Council of Canada, will join CIBC head VICTOR DODIG and other BCC members in a separate delegation.

Hot button: Expect the CP Rail strike to come up in conversation.

— Public Safety Minister MARCO MENDICINO and Justice Minister DAVID LAMETTI are also in D.C. They're attending the first Canada-United States Cross-Border Crime Forum in a decade.

On the Hill

11 a.m. NDP leader JAGMEET SINGH will hold a press conference on his party's opposition day motion.

11 a.m. Agriculture Minister MARIE-CLAUDE BIBEAU, agriculture and agri-food minister, will be at committee with department reps and officials from the Canadian Food Inspection Agency.

11 a.m. The House finance committee will be studying inflation in the Canadian economy.

11 a.m. Transport Minister OMAR ALGHABRA will be at committee with officials from NAV Canada and transport to discuss Canada’s readiness to respond to Russian threats to Canada’s waters, ports and airspace.

11 a.m. The House foreign affairs and international development committee will be discussing vaccine equity and intellectual property rights.

11 a.m. The House human resources committee will be talking with nurses and health care unions about labor shortages and working conditions.

11 a.m. CYNTHIA KHOO of the Citizen Lab will be among the witnesses at the House ethics committee to discuss the use and impact of facial recognition technology.

3:30 p.m. NDDN will hear from experts on threats affecting Canada and the readiness of the Canadian Forces to meet them.

3:30 p.m. JEAN-YVES DUCLOS and CAROLYN BENNETT: The health ministers will appear at the health committee with the Canadian Food Inspection Agency, Canadian Institutes of Health Research and Public Health Agency of Canada.

3:30 p.m. The House natural resources committee will hear from witnesses as it studies greenhouse gas emissions for the oil and gas sector.

3:30 p.m. Air Canada CEO MICHEAL ROUSSEAU is due at the House Standing Committee on Official Languages on Monday afternoon where he no doubt will show off his French.

3:30 p.m.The House international trade committee will be finishing up a report on the Canada-U.S. relationship. In its first hour, it will hear from department officials on Canada's exports of environmental and clean technology goods and services.

3:30 p.m.The House heritage committee will hear about working conditions from a long list of actors, creators, artists and various organizations.

6:30 p.m.The special committee on Afghanistan will hear from the Canadian Refugee Sponsorship Agreement Holders Association, the Aga Khan Foundation Canada, Centre for Newcomers and REID SIRRS, former ambassador of Canada to Afghanistan.

6:30 p.m.The House Subcommittee on International Human Rights is studying human rights in repressive states and will hear from Human Rights Watch, UNESCO and the Raoul Wallenberg Centre for Human Rights. CLAYTON WEIMERS will also appear.

MEDIA ROOM

The West of Centre pod features pollster JANET BROWN off the top in conversation about her leaked polling, followed by lots of talk about the United Conservative Party leadership review scheduled for April 9. BLAISE BOEHMER and RISHI NAGAR join KATHLEEN PETTY in gaming out the scenarios.

— “The nation’s capital is back to its famously boring self,” JUSTIN LING writes in The Star under a headline touting: The inside story of the convoy protests.

— “Complicated, eh?” That’s TVO’s STEVE PAIKIN in a column on his conflicts of interest — including that his wife has worked for PATRICK BROWN, even ghost-writing his memoir. While Paikin received public support on LinkedIn, Twitter was less kind. A sampling of response: RAISA PATEL. FATIMA SYED. DAVID REEVELY.

CATHARINE TUNNEY explains how the Access to Information Act could be changed by a New Brunswick mother’s quest to know more about her daughter’s death.

DEAN BEEBY used access-to-information docs to tell the untold story of how Lester Pearson influenced the dubious spy probe of a gay diplomat.

— In the National Post, Gen. RICK HILLIER served up his to-do list for Defense Minister ANITA ANAND. In the Ottawa Citizen, pollster SHACHI KURL says Anand faces an uphill battle: “The fact is, neither defense spending, promises to our international allies, nor the general state and readiness of our armed forces are so-called ‘ballot issues’ of importance to voters, and the politicians know it.”

— Ukrainian-Canadian TATIANA SUNAK shared her escape story with Toronto Life.

ASK US ANYTHING

TELL US EVERYTHING — What are you hearing that you need Playbook to know? Send it all our way.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to Liberal MP JOHN MCKAY. ED BROADBENT also celebrates today. Just a couple of weeks ago, the former NDP leader weighed in on the Emergencies Act.

Bonus birthdays: HBD + 1 to BRIAN MULRONEY. HBD + 2 to KATE MALLOY.

Spotted: MPPs LISA MACLEOD and STEVE CLARK joined MP MIKE BARRETT to announce C$250,000 toward the Gord Brown Memorial Arena in Gananoque. Brown was MP in the riding from 2004 until his death in 2018.

THOMAS D’AQUINO sharing news of his upcoming memoir, which will be published by Penguin Random House.

Media mentions: The nominations for the National Newspaper Awards are out.

In the running for the John Wesley Dafoe Award for Politics are ALTHIA RAJ; NOOR JAVED, STEVE BUIST, SHEILA WANG and EMMA MCINTOSH; and PATRICK BRETHOUR, TOM CARDOSO, DAVID MILSTEAD and VANMALA SUBRAMANIAM. 

Nominees for the Norman Webster Award for International Reporting include MAGDALINE BOUTROS, MARK MACKINNON and NATHAN VANDERKLIPPE. 

KARYN PUGLIESE is up for the Mary Ann Shadd Cary Award for Columns against ANDREW COYNE and ISABELLE HACHEY. 

FRANK GUNN of The Canadian Press is in the running for General News Photo for capturing the moment MICHAEL KOVRIG was reunited on a tarmac with his wife after being held captive in China for nearly three years. NATHAN DENETTE and MARTIN TREMBLAY are also nominated. You now have until Wednesday to apply to the Canadian Association of Journalists 2022 Mentorship Program. 

Farewells: ANDRINA CALVERT, constituency assistant to MP RICHARD CANNINGS, died last week. “She was one in a million — a kind person with a bright smile and a beguiling grin, someone with an almost infinite capacity to listen when people had difficult stories to tell, and someone who felt an obligation to give back to her community,” Cannings told the Penticton Herald. 

A year to the day after they launched, VACCINE HUNTERS CANADA is closing up shop: “What started as one person looking for a Covid-19 vaccine for their loved ones blossomed into a 100-person operation of caring volunteers helping people across Canada.”

PROZONE

For Pro s, here’s our PM Canada memo:The week ahead: Your guide to the whirlwind.

In other headlines for Pros:

The main driver of inflation isn't what you think it is.
IPCC details a world afflicted by global warming.
Pelosi pledges to work with Republicans to pass tech antitrust bills.
Germany backs phasing out combustion engine cars by 2035.
U.S. targets 100 Russian planes for export control violations.

TRIVIA

Friday's answer: DIONNE WARWICK performed the 'Star Spangled Banner' before DENNIS PARK botched 'O Canada' prior to a CFL game in Las Vegas.

Props to ALAN KAN, JASON CAMERON, RODDY MCFALL, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, JOHN GUOBA and KEN HASSKAMP. 

Today’s question: Name the official gemstone of Alberta. For bonus marks, tell us one thing about it.

Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Alejandra Waase to find out how: awaase@politico.com.

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