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A daily look inside Canadian politics and power. | | | | |  | | By Andy Blatchford and Maura Forrest | Send tips I Email Maura l Email Andy l Subscribe here WELCOME TO OTTAWA PLAYBOOK. We’re your hosts, Andy Blatchford and Maura Forrest. Today, the Conservative leadership contenders go head-to-head in French in Laval. We take a look at PIERRE POILIEVRE versus the elites. And we dive into the Ontario election’s race for second place.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | FACE-À-FACE 2022 — Conservative leadership candidates will converge tonight in the vast Montreal suburb of Laval, where they will cross swords in the contest’s final official debate. The clash in Quebec will be far different from the candidates’ earlier showdowns in the reste-du-Canada cities of Ottawa and Edmonton. No longer in Canada anglais , they will have to make their pitches (and attack each other) in French. That’s easier said than done for some of them. Here are five ways the French-language debate will be different: → First one’s obvious — it’ll be in French: Debating in French is likely to be the biggest challenge for several contestants — perhaps by a long shot. In the Conservatives’ 2020 French-language leadership debate, LESLYN LEWIS ’s poor grasp of the language forced her to carefully read statements prepared in advance. Lewis is the only returning candidate, so it remains to be seen how much her French has improved. The debate will give ROMAN BABER, SCOTT AITCHISON and PATRICK BROWN the chance to show off their skills. JEAN CHAREST and PIERRE POILIEVRE, widely viewed as the two frontrunners, are both completely bilingual — and will be at ease on stage. Conservative strategist RUDY HUSNY tells Playbook he’ll also be watching for changes in how candidates conduct themselves during the event. “I’ve always said that you don't speak in English the same way you do in French,” said Husny, who has prepped politicians for debates. “In French, sometimes it's expected that you show more emotion or passion in arguing your (positions)... In English, you don't do it as much.” → Poilievre vs. Charest, Round 3: Without any language hurdles to slow them down, expect Poilievre and Charest to square off once again and to command much of the floor. What will be interesting this time is how they go about it given their audience. For starters, it will be home turf for Charest, who spent nearly a decade as Quebec premier. He comes into the event as a known quantity in the province — and he will likely argue that, as leader, he would make crucial gains in Quebec. But he will also carry some baggage. Charest’s provincial Liberals were defeated in 2012 amid allegations of corruption within his government. Adding to the sting, he lost his own seat. Poilievre, a Calgary native who has represented an Ottawa-area riding for 18 years, will want to show that he can drum up a lot of support in Quebec as well. He will look to carry momentum into the debate following campaign rallies in the province over the weekend. → Quebec’s Bill 21: The contestants should be ready to debate the province’s controversial secularism law. Bill 21 prohibits civil servants in authority roles, such as teachers, police officers and judges, from wearing religious symbols, like a hijab or turban, on the job. The law has been challenged in court. Polls have shown strong public support for the law in Quebec, but much less backing in the rest of the country. Federal leaders are frequently tested on how they think Ottawa should respond to a bill whose opponents claim tramples on religious freedom. Candidates like Brown, Lewis and Charest have been outspoken about their opposition to Bill 21 — and Charest has said he would intervene if the law is challenged at the Supreme Court of Canada. Husny said Poilievre has followed approaches similar to former leaders ERIN O’TOOLE and ANDREW SCHEER in saying he doesn’t like it, but he wouldn’t intervene in provincial jurisdiction. It’s tricky terrain. Husny argues that Quebecers may not be too offended if one of their own, like Charest, goes after the law. But he adds if a non-Quebecer were to take the same position they might be viewed as an outsider trying to impose something on the province. Another controversial piece of legislation, Bill 96, could also end up on tonight’s agenda. The bill, which was passed Tuesday in Quebec’s National Assembly, imposes tougher French-language requirements in the province. Critics say it discriminates against Quebec’s English-speaking minority. → ‘Freedom’ truckers: Another dividing line between some of the candidates is whether they support the Freedom Convoy, which saw truckers spend weeks occupying downtown Ottawa. Lewis, Baber and Poilievre, for example, have been vocal supporters of the movement, while Charest has condemned it as an illegal protest. Husny said there are signs the convoy, which was fueled in large part by opposition to vaccine and mask mandates, has the potential to move votes in Quebec. He noted that ÉRIC DUHAIME, leader of the provincial Conservatives, has rapidly expanded his party’s membership base by taking strong positions against pandemic measures imposed by governments. Polls, however, muddy the picture. They’ve shown that 68 percent of voters in Quebec opposed the trucker blockades. → Pipeline politics: In English Canada, Conservatives have an easy time pushing for the construction of new pipelines, Husny said. Quebec is a different story. For the most part, Quebecers have long opposed any plans to build new pipelines that would carry oil and gas across the province. One energy topic that is certain to come up is GNL Québec’s Énergie Saguenay liquefied natural gas project, which the federal and Quebec governments rejected for failing to do enough on social and environmental fronts. Poilievre and Charest have both said Russia’s war on Ukraine has changed the landscape — and that they would support the C$14-billion project as prime minister. Do you enjoy Ottawa Playbook? Maybe you know others who may like it, too. Hit forward. Click here to sign up to this free newsletter. | | | | DON'T MISS THE 2022 GREAT LAKES ECONOMIC FORUM: POLITICO is excited to be the exclusive media partner again at the Council of the Great Lakes Region's bi-national Great Lakes Economic Forum with co-hosts Gov. JB Pritzker and Mayor Lori Lightfoot. This premier, intimate networking event, taking place June 26-28 in Chicago, brings together international, national and regional leaders from business, government, academia and the nonprofit sector each year. "Powering Forward" is this year's theme, setting the stage to connect key decision-makers with thought leaders and agents of change to identify and advance solutions that will strengthen the region's competitiveness and sustainability in today's competitive climate of trade, innovation, investment, labor mobility and environmental performance. Register today. | | | | | | | For your radar | | NOTHING TO SEE HERE — On Tuesday, Playbook asked whether Canada got snubbed by not being included in the Biden administration’s new Indo-Pacific economic framework (IPEF), which includes Japan, India, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and eight other countries. Later in the day, Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU told reporters the new trade arrangement is “not something that directly affects us,” since Canada is already a member of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), from which the Trump administration withdrew in 2017. Seven countries are part of both agreements. — Reading between the lines: “The fact that the U.S. isn’t in the CPTPP means that they’re having to look for ways to try and create connections with countries in the Pacific that they don’t have a free trade deal with,” Trudeau said. In other words: we didn’t want to be part of your stupid club anyway. So does that mean Canada isn’t interested in joining the new framework? Well, now, hold on just a second. “We’re taking a look at it,” Trudeau said. “I think it’s always a good thing when countries agree to work together.” In other words: if ever your stupid club is accepting new members, please let us know. — The official line: A spokesperson for Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY tells Playbook that Ottawa “will continue to review the proposed IPEF, and explore opportunities to advance shared interests in the region.” #ONPOLI — With just over a week left in the campaign, it’s a race for second place in the Ontario provincial election, and we’re sure you’re on the edge of your seats. PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER, creator of 338Canada, has crunched the numbers and found that DOUG FORD’s Progressive Conservatives win a majority in more than 80 percent of simulations, and the most seats in more than 99 percent. “A second Ford majority is not a done deal, but it’s by far the most likely scenario,” he writes for POLITICO this morning. OK, so it’s not the most thrilling campaign that ever was. But the question that’s worth answering is this: Who has the best shot of reducing Ford to a minority? The Liberal, NDP and Green Party leaders have said they wouldn’t prop up a PC minority. — Into the weeds: The Liberals and NDP are polling close together province-wide, but while the NDP’s support is “high and narrow,” the Liberals’ is “wide and spread out,” Fournier reports. That means the NDP could well end up with more seats than the Liberals, but it’s the Liberals who have a better chance of edging out the PCs in enough seats to keep them from a majority. “It would take a major polling error combined with some electoral black magic for the ONDP to win enough seats to limit Ford to a minority,” Fournier writes. — Related: The Toronto Star’s ROBERT BENZIE got hold of internal Liberal polling that also suggests the Liberals are better placed than the NDP to hold the PCs to a minority. On the other hand, the Star also reported Tuesday that its poll aggregator shows the NDP gaining in vote share at the Liberals’ expense. NDP campaign manager MICHAEL BALAGUS tells Playbook the party’s internal polling suggests it’s “extremely likely” the New Democrats will end up with more seats than the Liberals. If Ford’s PCs only win a minority and can’t find a dance partner, he said, “then we will be in a position to form a government.”
| | CONSERVATIVE CORNER | | THE GATECRASHER — Leadership frontrunner PIERRE POILIEVRE made his name as a parliamentary agitator. Now, he’s not out simply to upend the political establishment — he wants to burn it down. This morning, POLITICO’s ANDY BLATCHFORD has this longread on the anti-elitist Tory contender, who himself has been a fixture of Canadian politics for nearly two decades. Here’s an excerpt: “The twist in Poilievre’s drive to drain Canada’s institutional swamp is that he’s very much a product of it. Poilievre has never been anything but a politician. At a youthful 42, he’s already won seven elections since 2004 in his Ottawa-area riding. “And after 18 years in federal politics — including time in STEPHEN HARPER’s Cabinet — Poilievre is hardly an Ottawa outsider. Over the years he has built a reputation as a provocateur against the bureaucracy, and has been condemned for his critiques and the lengths he’s gone to dish it out. “Today, Poilievre is expanding his offensive on the establishment, and his bare-knuckle, freedom-chanting style is resonating in Canadian Conservative circles. “His message has the potential to alter the future of the party — and even the course of Canada.” — Here's SUSAN DELACOURT today: Pierre Poilievre is inching toward the dark places where Donald Trump found votes. | | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | |
| | TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS | | Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON is in Berlin today until Friday to attend the G-7 climate, energy and environment ministers meeting. Emergency Preparedness Minister BILL BLAIR is leading the Canadian delegation at the Global Platform on Disaster Risk Reduction in Indonesia from today until Saturday. 10:30 a.m. Justice Minister DAVID LAMETTI holds a press conference in Montreal. 11 a.m. (Pacific) ANDY FILLMORE , parliamentary secretary to the innovation minister, speaks at the launch of a new center for cyber security innovation, part of Mastercard’s Vancouver tech hub. 12 p.m. (Central) Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will make an announcement about long-term care and hold a press conference in Saskatoon. 8 p.m. The French-language Conservative leadership debate kicks off in Laval, Que.
| | PERSPECTIVES | | THE REAL HISTORY — A memorial in Kamloops, B.C. on Monday marked one year since 215 suspected unmarked graves were discovered at a former residential school. Governor General MARY SIMON spoke at the Tk'emlúps te Secwépemc Le Estcwicwéy̓ memorial. Here’s part of what she had to say: “The time for ‘we didn’t know’ is over. To all Canadians, I deliver this message. Indigenous families didn’t know what happened to their children and many still don’t. Most Canadians didn’t know about residential schools. Now they do. “How, then, do we move forward from the shadows to the light and begin to heal? “Wherever I go in Canada or around the world, I vow to take your stories with me. I will share your stories and the stories of these children. I will do my part to bring their memories into the light. “I consider this a sacred responsibility, as Governor General, as an honorary witness of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, as a mother and a grandmother. “This is a responsibility all Canadians share. We all need to listen. We all need to understand. “It’s important that we teach the real history in our schools — the good and the bad. By incorporating this truth into our curriculum, we make sure the next generation grows up dedicated to building and restoring relationships, to reconciliation, to seeing things differently and to valuing Indigenous knowledge and stories.”
| | MEDIA ROOM | | — Top of POLITICO this morning: Shooting at Texas elementary school leaves 19 children dead, horrifies nation. — For the Line, Sen. PAULA SIMONS raises a “reasonable general concern” that Bill S-7 would make it too easy for border guards to search our phones and laptops, and travelers could be targeted based on their political views. — Here's AARON WHERRY today: To understand Ottawa's use of the Emergencies Act, we need to know what Cabinet knew. — For the National Observer, BARRY SAXIFRAGE shows how close Canada came to meeting our 2020 emissions target under the Copenhagen Accord. Spoiler: it’s not close. — On the Decibel, host MENAKA RAMAN-WILMS speaks to CONNIE WALKER about her latest podcast, Stolen: Surviving St. Michael’s, in which she digs into her own family’s past. — The CBC’s CATHARINE TUNNEY reports that intelligence experts are saying Canada needs to rethink its approach to national security, including the rise of anti-democratic forces in the United States. — The Time 100 list is out, highlighting 2022’s most influential people in the world.
| | PROZONE | | If you’re a POLITICO Pro , don’t miss our latest policy newsletter by ZI-ANN LUM: Yardsticks in an era of unpredictable risks. In other headlines for Pros:
— Apple executive: Don’t break encryption.
— Top Massachusetts court says Exxon climate lawsuit can proceed.
— White House touts environmental spending for low-income, minority communities.
— Crypto, Wall Street battle for influence at Washington agency.
— Tedros reelected as World Health Organization chief.
| | PLAYBOOKERS | | Birthdays: HBD to political cartoonist MICHAEL DE ADDER, Nova Scotia MLA ZACH CHURCHILL, former Manitoba MLA DOUG MARTINDALE and former MP LYNN MYERS. Send birthdays to ottawaplaybook@politico.com . Spotted: Long-weekend travel: National Defence Minister ANITA ANAND at Toronto’s Pearson Airport, seated between her children, watching Friday’s House floor feed on CPAC on her phone … Immigration Minister SEAN FRASER traveling with Air Canada from LGA to YYZ Monday, having his mask snatched off his face by his baby son. GERALD BUTTS, gallivanting through Europe … Northern Affairs Minister DAN VANDAL, meeting Whitehorse Mayor LAURA CABOTT in person … MARCO MENDICINO, SEAMUS O’REGAN and JOANNE THOMPSON, stopping for fish and chips in St. John’s. Movers and shakers: Liberal MP MICHAEL COTEAU is the new co-chair of the parliamentary Black caucus, replacing GREG FERGUS. The appointment was announced Tuesday by co-chair Sen. ROSEMARY MOODIE. Send Playbookers tips to ottawaplaybook@politico.com .
| | HOUSE BUSINESS | | Keep up to House committee schedules here. Find Senate meeting schedules here. 2:30 p.m. The Special Joint Committee on Medical Assistance in Dying will hear from a number of witnesses including the Canadian Bar Association and the Canadian Association for Suicide Prevention. 4:30 p.m. An in-camera meeting of the Special Committee on Afghanistan has been requested to discuss the document production ahead of the committee’s report.
| | Talk of the town | | YOU ARE INVITED — There are a few more tables at our LIVE Trivia event June 9 at the METROPOLITAIN in Ottawa. Gather a team of friends and co-workers, then send us an RSVP to reserve.
| | TRIVIA | | Tuesday’s answer: “Everyone would gather on the 24th of May, sitting in the sand to watch the fireworks display” is a lyric from Rush’s Lakeside Park, a song with lyrics by NEIL PEART that celebrates a go-to destination in Port Dalhousie on Lake Ontario. Props to BRAM ABRAMSON, PAUL CHILDS, JOHN ECKER, NANCI WAUGH, DOUG RICE, SEAN MURPHY, MICHAEL MACDONALD, SHANE O’NEILL, HUGH BENEVIDES, ROBERT MCDOUGALL and BRIAN PASSIFIUME. Wednesday’s question: Name the sitting MP who jokingly boasted about a “historic first dog moment” when her Shih Tzu made a cameo during a parliamentary meeting. Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Playbook wouldn’t happen without Luiza Ch. Savage and editor Sue Allan.
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