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A daily look inside Canadian politics and power. | | | | |  | | By Maura Forrest |
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PROGRAMMING NOTE: Ottawa Playbook won’t publish Monday, Aug. 29 to Monday, Sept. 5. We’ll be back on our regular schedule Tuesday, Sept. 6. WELCOME TO OTTAWA PLAYBOOK. I’m your host, Maura Forrest, with Andy Blatchford and Sue Allan. Today, NATO head JENS STOLTENBERG wraps up his trip to Canada. PIERRE POILIEVRE’s team makes a bid for the hearts and minds of Quebecers. And the United People of Canada remain united. Did someone forward Ottawa Playbook your way? Click here to sign up for your own edition. It’s free! |  | DRIVING THE DAY | |
APPEAL EN FRANÇAIS — PIERRE POILIEVRE has the majority of caucus endorsements pretty much right across the country, with one notable exception. In Quebec, seven of 10 Conservative MPs support former premier JEAN CHAREST , and only one — PIERRE PAUL-HUS — has joined Poilievre’s ranks.
Concerns about Poilievre in the Quebec caucus clearly run deep. Earlier this month, Quebec MP JOËL GODIN told the Hill Times he would consider leaving the Conservative party if Poilievre wins and doesn’t pivot to the center. “I’m a moderate. I’m not a populist,” he told ABBAS RANA. Charest’s team is counting on a landslide in Quebec if he’s to have any chance of winning the Conservative leadership in September. So in a bid to undermine his support, Paul-Hus penned an op-ed Thursday in Quebec’s most-read newspaper, the Journal de Montréal, to make the case for Poilievre. Two Quebec senators who back the frontrunner, LEO HOUSAKOS and CLAUDE CARIGNAN, as well as YVES LÉVESQUE, former mayor of Trois-Rivières and former Conservative candidate, also signed their names. — Reading between the lines: It’s no secret that politicians sometimes tweak their messaging when talking to Quebecers, and this op-ed is no exception. The word “freedom” does not make an appearance. Ditto for “elites” and “gatekeepers.” Vaccine mandates? No mention. Firing TIFF MACKLEM? Nothing to see here. “Take back control of your life”? Not even. — Instead: Their opening volley is that Poilievre was a minister in former prime minister STEPHEN HARPER’s Cabinet when he balanced the budget. Next argument? He knows how to win, and he’s brought in a heck of a lot of new members. And what would Poilievre do as PM? According to Paul-Hus et al., he’d work on balancing the budget, developing natural resources, building more housing and scrapping the carbon tax. — In other words? Nothing to be scared of here, folks. — Related: Last week, Poilievre painted a similar picture of himself to JOËL-DENIS BELLAVANCE of La Presse, saying his policies “are the same Conservative Party policies that we’ve put forward since the 2003 merger.” — Meanwhile: Poilievre will be campaigning out west over the weekend, with meet-and-greets planned for Calgary, Nanaimo, Sidney and Vancouver. | 
Stoltenberg and Trudeau in the Arctic. | Jason Franson / The Canadian Press. |
MESSAGE TO MOSCOW — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU and NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG will visit the 4 Wing Cold Lake military fighter base in Alberta today, to conclude the NATO head’s three-day trip to Canada.
They will hold a joint press conference at 11:30 a.m. ET. Expect the two leaders to field questions on Canada’s defense spending, which has led to criticism of Ottawa because it remains on track to stay below NATO’s 2-percent-of-GDP target. NATO allies, including the U.S., have put pressure on Canada to spend more on the military. — The trip so far: Stoltenberg made history Thursday as the first NATO secretary general to journey to Canada's Far North, where he and Trudeau visited the Nunavut hamlet of Cambridge Bay. Per a Canadian Press report, Stoltenberg expressed surprise upon learning the permanent community was only established in the 1950s, during construction of the Distant Early Warning Line, the predecessor of today’s North Warning System (NWS). Cambridge Bay is in the heart of the Canadian Arctic on internal waters, a long way from Russia’s far eastern shores. But, of course, Russia loomed large over the visit. Experts told POLITICO’s ANDY BLATCHFORD the trip was significant, given that Ottawa has long asked NATO to keep a low profile in the Canadian Arctic. — A break from the past: Security expert WHITNEY LACKENBAUER told POLITICO there was fear in the past that such posturing could provoke Russia and draw attention to how Canada and the U.S. manage joint defense of the region through NORAD. “Russia's invasions of Ukraine over the last eight years have changed that equation,” said Lackenbauer, a Canada Research Chair at Trent University specializing in Arctic policy and security. — Connecting NATO’s flanks: ANDREA CHARRON , a University of Manitoba expert on defense and the Arctic, told POLITICO that allies are realizing the need for a tighter connection between NATO and NORAD. “Before we used to think of it as NORAD doing stuff over here in North America, and NATO doing stuff over there in Europe,” Charron said. “That Stoltenberg is coming, I think, is more a communication to adversaries like Russia to say, ‘Listen, all the allies are hanging together.’” Stoltenberg seemed to confirm that message on Thursday. “When Finland and Sweden join, seven out of eight Arctic nations will be in NATO,” he said in Cambridge Bay. “That will just increase the importance of the Arctic for NATO.” — For more: Stoltenberg offered a blunt reminder in a Globe and Mail op-ed Wednesday that the North Pole is the shortest path to North America for Russian missiles or bombers. | | TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS | |
10:30 a.m. Agriculture Minister MARIE-CLAUDE BIBEAU will be in Quebec City to announce measures to prevent the introduction of African swine fever to Canada.
10:45 a.m. Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT will be at a cement plant in Saint-Constant, Que. to announce a new initiative to support “climate-conscious businesses.” 11:30 a.m. (9:30 a.m. MDT) Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU and NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG will hold a press conference at the 4 Wing Cold Lake fighter base in Alberta. Trudeau and Stoltenberg will hold a bilateral meeting ahead of the presser, and will have lunch at 11:45 a.m. MDT with Defense Minister ANITA ANAND, Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY, Northern Affairs Minister DAN VANDAL and members of the Canadian Armed Forces. 12 p.m. Immigration Minister SEAN FRASER will be in Timmins, Ont. to announce changes to the Rural and Northern Immigration Pilot program. | | For your radar | |
STANDOFF — A midnight deadline came and went on Thursday, and the United People of Canada remained at St. Brigid’s Church in Ottawa. The group, which would like you to know it’s not linked to the Freedom Convoy, despite its links to the Freedom Convoy , was facing an eviction notice with a deadline that’s now more than 24 hours past. But the united people said they weren’t going anywhere, and as of Thursday night, no one had made them leave.
The situation is as bizarre as it is potentially volatile. On Thursday, the group held a press conference during which one of its leaders, WILLIAM KOMER, wore a crown and yellow rubber gloves. Then they sprayed some photojournalists with water guns to get them to leave the premises. One member of the group later told your Playbook host this was an “improvised gag.” — Standstill: Through the day, various residents and protesters stood in a tiny park across the street from the church, waiting to see what would happen. Police were on hand to break up any altercations. One resident told your host one of the leaders chased him down and got him in a headlock after he grabbed one of their water guns. Otherwise, people on both sides mostly milled about. — What’s next: Late in the day, Ottawa police released a memo saying the landlord expects the court to issue an eviction order, which police could then help to execute. But until then, they say, all they can do is keep the peace. | | HALLWAY CONVERSATION | | | 
Along the Voyageurs Pathway. | POLITICO Canada. | WARNING SIGNS — The National Capital Commission released a report earlier this summer warning that climate change is a growing and significant risk to the parks, buildings and other assets it owns in the Ottawa-Gatineau area. Next month, in collaboration with the cities of Ottawa and Gatineau, it will buckle down on a 10-year adaptation strategy. Playbook spoke with Emily Rideout, the NCC’s sustainable development program officer, about the state of play. This conversation has been edited for length and clarity. One takeaway from the report is that the National Capital Region is not equipped to respond to the impacts of climate change — intense precipitation, heat and other extreme events. What is at the top of the many concerns? Flooding has already been a significant challenge for the organization. We own 75 kilometers of shoreline, and own a number of assets along the floodplain — or along the shoreline. We know flooding will become more frequent — that the 100-year floodplain will likely over time become the 50 year floodplain. Extreme heat is new for us to consider. The report notes the NCC is still dealing with previous flooding. The pathway cleanup did take time because we wanted to rebuild them better. That's something we did after 2017 and a great example of how the organization was already adapting — even before this assessment was done. After the 2017 floods, the pathways behind Parliament and the Voyageurs Pathway in Gatineau were built with deeper rip-rap. Taller rip-rap was also integrated and some vegetation to create natural buffering against erosion. The study notes that a lot of heritage buildings are not equipped to deal with climate change. The same goes for the fine art and furnishings within the buildings. Heritage buildings were built for the past and not for the climate we're going to be getting. It's certainly an area of concern. The heritage buildings need special attention because the projections we have are showing quite a significant increase in the number of extreme days we can expect going forward. The Crown collection is an interesting asset class. We're actually doing fairly well at managing that one. We have climate-controlled warehouses and the ability to choose what items from our collections we deploy into official residences. What else are you thinking about as it relates to the findings in this report? I think about how climate change will affect vulnerable communities. Heat really affects small children, elderly folks, people with various health conditions, the unhoused, for example. Bearing that in mind, thinking about who uses our lands — and making sure we can provide, hopefully, water fountains and places to get some shade and places to swim . I think about the tree canopy. The [May 21] derecho was devastatingly damaging to NCC-managed lands. NCC-managed lands are generally quite forested. A recent assessment showed that 74 percent of our lands are forested. That's a good news story because it gives people a place to retreat to if they maybe don't have air conditioning. Do we need to be working faster? I think all the time about the saying, “The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The next best time is today.” It feels a bit like that. This is just a first step, but it's a step in the right direction. | | MEDIA ROOM | |
— A judge has ordered the redacted release of the Mar-a-Lago affidavit today. POLITICO has the latest.
— The CBC’s JONATHAN MONTPETIT takes on conspiracy theories spreading in Canada about a so-called “fertilizer ban.” — And here’s RUDYARD GRIFFITHS on World Economic Forum conspiracies, “antisemitic and a moral stain on conservative politics.” — Over at the Writ, ÉRIC GRENIER has launched the first of a series of analyses of the proposed federal riding redistributions. First up: Atlantic Canada, where the Liberals could stand to gain two seats from the Conservatives. — The Hub reports on a poll that suggests Canadians who are tuning out the news say they’re doing it because the sheer negativity is turning them off politics. — Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND brushed off criticism in JARED KUSHNER’s new memoir Thursday, calling former U.S. President DONALD TRUMP a “bully” during NAFTA renegotiations. The Canadian Press has the details. | | PROZONE | |
For POLITICO Pro s, catch up to our latest policy newsletter: Why Stoltenberg ventured to the Great White North.
In other news for s:
— Ukraine says nuclear plant disconnected from grid.
— Twitter whistleblower to testify before Senate Judiciary Committee.
— House Homeland grills Twitter on lax security ahead of midterms.
— Mysterious Chip 4 plan creates anxiety among U.S. allies in Asia. | | PLAYBOOKERS | |
Birthdays: HBD to athlete and advocate RICK HANSEN, who is 65 today.
Celebrating Saturday: NDP MP RANDALL GARRISON and former premier BRIAN PECKFORD. On Sunday: Former PM PAUL MARTIN will be 84. Also celebrating: Bookstore boss HEATHER REISMAN and retired MNA JACQUES CHAGNON. Send birthdays to ottawaplaybook@politico.com. Movers and shakers: EMILY GRANT is taking on a new position as an advance with the PMO. JENNI BYRNE + Associates is looking for a new associate. Spotted: Wendy’s Canada, going gray in solidarity with LISA LAFLAMME. … And here’s CAROL OFF and MELLISSA FUNG writing on the controversy. Global’s DAVID AKIN, noting cabmins doling out cash in Quebec ridings where the Bloc Québécois poses a “serious political challenge.” KEN BOESSENKOOL, confirming he marked SCOTT AITCHISON as his first choice for Conservative leader. On Thursday, Aitchison criticized rival LESLYN LEWIS for a recent message to members about the Nuremberg Code, which he called a “dog whistle” to Covid-19 anti-vaxxers. Conservative MP GÉRARD DELTELL, getting excited about his 2023 Guide de l’auto. Liberal staffer OLIVIER CULLEN, endorsing CATHERINE MCKENNEY for Ottawa mayor. The Bank of Canada, explaining quantitative easing in six tweets. | | TRIVIA | |
Thursday’s answer: YOUSUF KARSH photographed WINSTON CHURCHILL in the Speaker’s Office. Here, the photographer talks about the 1941 portrait that changed his life.
Props to KATHLEEN SANDUNSKY, KEVIN BOSCH, PATRICK DION, GUY SKIPWORTH, NANCI WAUGH, GARY ALLEN, DOUG RICE, ALYSON FAIR, KEVIN COLBOURNE, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, MURRAY WILSON, BOB RICHARDSON, SHANE O’NEILL and DIANNE BRYDON. And here is JOHN DELACOURT on “The other Karsh picture.” Friday’s question: What prime minister was said to have had more than 30 different kinds of hot sauce at home? Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Playbook wouldn’t happen without Luiza Ch. Savage and editor Sue Allan. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |  |
