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Presented by General Atomics Aeronautical: A daily look inside Canadian politics and power. | | | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey | | |
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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. I'm your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey. Today, we share three storylines to watch this week. Plus, PIERRE POILIEVRE reportedly just made a big hire. Thursday's in-person Playbook Trivia at the Metropolitain is officially sold out. We’re taking names for our next outing — date TBA. Shoot us an email to reserve your spot. Did someone forward you this edition? Click here to sign up for your own. | | | | A message from Team SkyGuardian Canada: Leveraging the well-proven MQ-9 platform that has supported Five Eyes and NATO missions for more than a decade, Team SkyGuardian brings together the best in business and technology to serve Canada, the Canadian Armed Forces, and the many industries that support them. Our government and industry team will help ensure Canada’s safety and security for the long term. | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | |
3 THINGS TO WATCH — Playbook starts the week with eyes on the cost-of-living debate in the House, where MPs will debate the three-pronged Liberal affordability package. A former diplomat boils down her top concerns in Ukraine. And we monitor a burbling dispute between New Democrats and the Jewish community.
IN THE HOUSE — The backdrop in the Commons this week is a worrying warning from BMO Capital Markets: "The risk of a North American recession over the next year has now climbed above 50 percent." Oxford Economics predicts the r-word will hit Canada in the last quarter of 2022. It's all fodder for an Official Opposition bent on spinning payroll contributions to pensions and employment insurance as punishing taxes that make life more difficult for stretched families — and an opposition leader who has blamed the Bank of Canada for fueling inflation. — On the order paper: The House will debate two bills: C-30 and C-31. C-30 would temporarily double the GST/HST credit for six months for qualifying households. C-31 includes a one-time low-income rental housing benefit and the first phase of a dental care plan for kids under 12 — aka the NDP's proof of relevancy for critics who argue the party has lost its way. Watch for the posturing on C-30, the only prong the Tories don't dismiss as inflationary (because it'll return tax to taxpayers, not pad wallets with new federal money). — Other business: Government House Leader MARK HOLLAND told the Commons on Thursday the House will also find time this week for C-29, the bill that would create a National Council for Reconciliation. The opposition will get a couple of chances to own the parliamentary agenda. Tuesday and Thursday are "opposition days" when the House will debate a motion presented by an MP from the opposition benches. | 
Satellite image from Planet Labs PBC shows the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine | Planet Labs PBC via AP |
THE WAR IN UKRAINE — Ottawa's parliamentary squabbles over what is and isn't a tax are central to a broader cost-of-living debate that will define the opening months of POILIEVRE vs. TRUDEAU . But those policy fights sometimes feel like a luxury set against the literal fighting on Ukrainian soil.
Amid aggressive battlefield victories for Ukrainian forces, Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN is conscripting thousands of troops and cracking down on protesters. Russians are also running widely discredited independence referendums in occupied areas. U.S. National Security Adviser JAKE SULLIVAN has warned the U.S. would act "decisively" if Russians dropped tactical nukes in Ukraine. Playbook asked LOUISE BLAIS, a longtime Canadian diplomat who's now senior adviser at the Pendleton Group, what she's watching this week: — Referendum reactions: “We can expect Kyiv and Ukrainian allies to firmly dismiss the results. However, it will be interesting to observe how China, India and Turkey react. Will they back the Russians' sovereignty claim, as a disingenuous way to provide a face-saving way out of the war for Putin?" — Turmoil at home: "We can look at the growing protests across Russia against Kremlin policies with cautious hope that President Putin's grip on power is finally loosening. Just a few days since his mobilization order, there are signs that passive support for the invasion has reached a tipping point. Yet, momentum is key with popular uprisings. Will the early groundswell of protest spread further or will the crackdown be massive enough to push it back into the underground?" — Nuclear anxiety: "Disaster fears regarding the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant are well founded. Despite repeated calls for the implementation of a security zone by the U.N., Russian shelling has continued. Given the plant's strategic location in one of the regions under referendum, anxiety concerning its integrity will only grow this week." | | | | A message from Team SkyGuardian Canada:   | | |
NDP vs. CIJA — The Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs (CIJA) is directing a letter-writing campaign at NDP leader JAGMEET SINGH after a recent email under his name articulated NDP policy on Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Singh's email included 13 asks of the Liberal government, most of which were critical of Israeli policy. He signed off with this line: "It is time for Canada to show the principled commitment required to help bring an end to the occupation. New Democrats will continue to push the Liberal government to stand up for human rights and international law." CIJA acknowledged the NDP still supports a two-state solution, but lashed out at the "ill-informed, fringe positions" that "infantilize Palestinians — denying them agency and treating them as passive victims instead of as partners in peace who must be part of the solution." As of Friday afternoon, a CIJA spokesperson said Singh and NDP foreign affairs critic HEATHER MCPHERSON had received more than 5,000 letters from community members. — The 2021 position: Here's what the NDP ran on a year ago. "Recognizing that both Palestinians and Israelis have the right to live in safety and security, we will work towards a just and lasting two-state solution between Israel and Palestine that respects human rights and upholds international law. Canada must play an active and constructive role in advancing peace, beginning by suspending arms sales to Israel until the end of the illegal occupation." — What's next: Don't expect the CIJA to let the NDP off the hook. "The community is really fired up and demanding that Mr. Singh address their concerns quickly and publicly," said the spokesperson. "The NDP must return to a more constructive position on the Middle East, or the relationship between the party and the Jewish community may be irreparably harmed." | | For your radar | | | 
Mélanie Joly and Antony Blinken. | Olivier Douliery/Pool via AP | JOLY WATCH — POLITICO's ANDY BLATCHFORD profiled Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY, one of several senior Liberals said to be mulling a Liberal leadership run when the opportunity presents itself — which isn't now, the PM positively insists. The minister's career has rebounded from a tumultuous run in the heritage portfolio, which Joly described to Blatchford as “intense and sometimes difficult.” One lesson she learned: the importance of getting out of the “Ottawa bubble” to connect with people on the ground. Read Andy's full profile here. | | | | A message from Team SkyGuardian Canada: Learn about the remotely piloted multi-mission aircraft building Canadian industrial partnerships that deliver sovereignty and security for Canada. | | |
OLO WATCH — The Office of the Leader of the Opposition has brought on IAN TODD as chief of staff. CBC's CATHERINE CULLEN scored the scoop.
Todd was last in the public eye as Ontario's trade representative in Washington, where he raked in nearly C$350,000 a year. He also ran DOUG FORD's tour operation on the 2018 provincial campaign. Cullen notes Todd served as chief of staff to a different opposition leader two decades ago: STOCKWELL DAY, then-leader of the Canadian Alliance. Todd was a founding member of the Reform Party who became party leader PRESTON MANNING's personal and executive assistant in 1993. — Todd's jobs: "Coordination of media, research, correspondence and administrative support for Manning, coordination of all aspects of day-to-day logistics relating to Manning's scheduling and travel, attended all meetings, provided advice on protocol, and was the RCMP liaison regarding Manning's security." | | TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS | |
— Innovation Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE is in Japan to attend the funeral of former prime minister SHINZO ABE.
6:10 a.m. Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will meet with local hydro workers departing for Atlantic Canada to support Hurricane Fiona recovery efforts. 8:30 a.m. A big border Covid measures statement is coming from Health Minister JEAN-YVES DUCLOS, Public Safety Minister MARCO MENDICINO, Transport Minister OMAR ALGHABRA, Treasury Board President MONA FORTIER, and Infrastructure and Intergovernmental Affairs Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC. 11:30 a.m. Trudeau will hold a media availability about Hurricane Fiona with Defense Minister ANITA ANAND , Immigration Minister SEAN FRASER, Rural Economic Development Minister GUDIE HUTCHINGS, Revenue Minister DIANE LEBOUTHILLIER, and LeBlanc. 2 p.m. Trudeau will attend question period. | | PAPER TRAIL | |
KEEPING COOL — Health Canada paid Environics Analytics C$119,776.84 to survey the country's views on the health impact of climate change. Environics called up 1,520 adult Canadians. The results were recently published online.
— One finding that jumped out: “Almost three-quarters (73%) of Canadians report having a working air conditioner, a substantial jump from 2008 (52%). Only one percent who have air conditioning say they do not use it.” | | MEDIA ROOM | |
— The GLOBE reports on the long road to recovery in the wake of Fiona.
— Top of POLITICO this morning: Pollsters fear they’re blowing it again in 2022. — From our colleagues in Rome: GIORGIA MELONI is set to lead Italy’s most right-wing government since Benito Mussolini. — The Globe profiles ÉRIC DUHAIME, who gets credit for bringing Quebec’s Conservatives “out of obscurity and into the mainstream.” — Professor LISA YOUNG references Fantasy Island in her latest Alberta politics newsletter — a nod to DANIELLE SMITH’s Sovereignty Act. “Smiles, everyone! Smiles!” — "In the pithiest of terms, the center isn't holding anymore," DAVID MCLAUGHLIN, president and CEO of the Institute on Governance, tells ABBAS RANNA and CHELSEA NASH of the forces at play in the House. — “Let's hope for the best: a statesman and a selfless prime minister-in-waiting. But plan for the worst,” KEN RUBIN writes of PIERRE POILIEVRE’s leadership. —The latest Conservative fight with the media may be serious, even as it’s absurd, BRUCE ARTHUR writes. In the Ottawa Citizen, ANDREW MACDOUGALL attempts to make sense of the media's relationship with PIERRE POILIEVRE — and offers advice to Hill journalists. — Jan. 6 was just the beginning for the Proud Boys, veteran extremism reporter ANDY CAMPBELL warns in a Q&A with POLITICO Magazine. | | PROZONE | |
For POLITICO Pro s, our latest policy newsletter from ZI-ANN LUM: The week ahead: What's on Mark Holland’s calendar.
In other news for s:
— Biden team takes a victory lap, issues a clean energy call to industry.
— EPA launches new elevated office of environmental justice.
— The city that survived Covid better than the rest of us.
— Ukraine asks Canada to help rebuild critical energy infrastructure.
— Trudeau, Yoon to collaborate on critical minerals.
— World Bank chief says he regrets comments questioning climate change. | | PLAYBOOKERS | |
In memoriam: Longtime NDP MP BILL BLAIKIE, a former deputy leader of his party and deputy Speaker of the House, died Saturday at 71. "It is difficult to express in words our grief, as well as our gratitude for all the love, wisdom and fun he shared with us over the years," read a statement from his family circulated by his son, MP DANIEL BLAIKIE.
Here's a selection of the many remembrances that appeared online: — NDP MP LEAH GAZAN: "The world has lost a giant." — Canada’s ambassador to the U.N. BOB RAE: “We had a few unforgettable Burns nights, and jammed a bagpipe/piano version of “For A’ That” that I shall always remember. Bill was larger than life, with a laugh and heart as big as his body and personality. A good soul.” — Comms pro CATHERINE CLARK: “I remember being terrified of Bill Blaikie as a small child because of his incredible height & powerful build, but I quickly came to realize he was both a gentle man & a gentleman. My sincere condolences to his family." — Former Conservative Cabinet Minister JAMES MOORE: “Bill Blaikie was a fierce parliamentarian and gentle giant at the same time. When he chose to leave Parliament it created a noticeable void of substance and honest passion. A lot of good things will be said about him today. He earned it all.” Movers and shakers: Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister MARC MILLER loses a longtime staffer, KATHY KETTLER, to Northern Affairs Minister DAN VANDAL. Miller notes Kettler is the first Inuk chief of staff to a Cabmin in Canadian history. JOSHUA ARLESS left Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND's office Friday. Lobbyist HYUN-JUNE LEONARD RO posted a Friday meeting with PM Trudeau in the lobbyist registry. The topic of conversation: "economic development." Ro advocates for the conversion of Crown land into affordable housing for low-income people. The only hitch: The PM's office says he never met Ro. Temple Scott's UJWAL GANGULY is repping Rock Tech, a lithium mining company with a northern Ontario property. Cocktail circuit: The Women's Regional Network hosts a 5:30 p.m. reception at the Valour Building. Topic: Building a better future with Afghan and Canadian women … The Canadian Ferry Association hosts a 6 p.m. reception at the National Arts Centre. Birthdays: HBD to retired Canadian senator LOWELL MURRAY, Alberta MLA LEELA AHEER, former Parti Québécois cabinet minister LOUISE BEAUDOIN, Ottawa councillor MATHIEU FLEURY and Nova Scotia MLA ALLAN MACMASTER. Send birthdays to ottawaplaybook@politico.com. Spotted: Conservative MP ERIN O’TOOLE, running the Michelob Ultra Night 10K. Outgoing Winnipeg mayor BRIAN BOWMAN, reading mean tweets … Former clerk of the Privy Council MICHAEL WERNICK , noting the public service return-to-office debate often excludes thousands of workers who aren't in an office. LEV FREMETH, son of Business Council d-comm HOWARD, showing the prime minister "the proper way to dip your apple in honey." #ShanahTovah | | AROUND THE HILL | |
→ Find the latest on House committee meetings here.
→ Keep track of Senate committee meetings here. 11 a.m. The House Indigenous and northern affairs committee meets to continue its study of Arctic sovereignty and emergency preparedness. Nunavut’s Community and Government Service Minister DAVID JOANASIE and Listuguj Mi'gmaq Government Chief DARCY GRAY are witnesses. 11 a.m. The House status of women committee meets to begin a new study about mental health of young women and girls. On the witness list: Jack.org’s ROWENA PINTO, Children First Canada founder SARA AUSTIN and CHARLENE Y. SENN, Canada Research Chair in sexual violence. 11 a.m. The House industry committee has an hour booked with witnesses to inform its study of small and medium-sized businesses. AARON WUDRICK of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, consultant JOHN PECMAN, YVES BLANCHET from the Institute for Research on Public Policy and officials from the Canadian Intellectual Property Office will attend. 1 p.m. The Senate Indigenous peoples committee meets to study the feds’ constitutional, treaty, political and legal responsibilities to First Nations, Inuit and Métis. 3:30 p.m. MP JOHN MCKAY and Senator JULIE MIVILLE-DECHÊNE will be at the House foreign affairs and international development committee to discuss Bill S-211 on forced labor and child labor. At 4:30, the committee will move in camera. 4 p.m. The Senate official languages committee meets to study Bill C-13, which is also being studied simultaneously in the House. Senators will hear from University of Ottawa law professor DAVID ROBITAILLE and the Canadian Bankers Association. 6:30 p.m. The House science and research committee is studying small modular nuclear reactors. Witnesses this evening include Atomic Energy of Canada Limited, the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission and the Department of Natural Resources. — Behind closed doors: Six House committees will meet behind closed doors today — among them, the House ethics committee, which will draft a report of its study on facial recognition technology. | | TRIVIA | | | 
An outbound view of Jupiter. | Jet Propulsion Laboratory | Friday’s answer: Jupiter is the closest it’s been to Earth since 1963. Props to ETHAN SPENCER, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, LUCAS BORCHENKO, RALPH LEVENSTEIN, JOHN ECKER, PETER MCKINNEY, DOUG RICE, MICHAEL MACDONALD and ANNE-MARIE STACEY. Today’s question: Name the prime minister’s wife who replied this way when asked if she spent time in the Commons: “I do go down at important times and sit in the gallery. But it's so boring and frustrating at times. I feel that they're frittering away hours in meaningless haranguing when they should be getting important things accomplished.” Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Playbook wouldn’t happen: Without Luiza Ch. Savage and editor Sue Allan.
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