A watcher’s guide to Quebec’s election

From: POLITICO Ottawa Playbook - Monday Oct 03,2022 10:00 am
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Ottawa Playbook

By Maura Forrest


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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. I'm your host, Maura Forrest. Today, Quebec goes to the polls. We tell you what’s on the legislative agenda this week. And Roxham Road is back!

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DRIVING THE DAY


TO THE BALLOT BOX — It’s election day in Quebec. In case you haven’t been paying attention, here’s a quick primer on the campaign and what to expect.

Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) Leader FRANÇOIS LEGAULT has run a lackluster campaign, by many accounts, but he’s basically guaranteed to win a second majority government, and could even increase his seat count.

Legault has had to apologize twice during the campaign — once for linking immigration to “violence” and “extremism” and once for saying that the problems with racism at a Joliette hospital where JOYCE ECHAQUAN died in 2020 were “settled.”

He has seemed keen for the campaign to end, and has limited his media availability. But in all likelihood, none of that will matter. The latest polls have Legault’s party around 38 percent, with his rivals all hovering between 14 and 17 percent.

— The race to watch today is the battle for second place. GABRIEL NADEAU-DUBOIS , co-spokesperson of the left-leaning Québec Solidaire (QS), is hoping his party will form the official opposition for the first time. If that happens, it will be historic. It would mean the two parties that ran Quebec politics for decades — the Liberals and the sovereigntist Parti Québécois (PQ) — will be left out in the cold.

As a sign of how things are changing on Quebec’s electoral map, both QS and the Quebec Conservatives are hoping to capitalize on Liberal Leader DOMINIQUE ANGLADE ’s shaky support in Montreal ridings that used to be staunchly Liberal.

— But a QS opposition is far from a sure thing. The PQ, under Leader PAUL ST-PIERRE PLAMONDON, has rallied and is now neck and neck with the Liberals and QS. Any of those parties could end up finishing second.

— More uncertainty: Plamondon, Anglade and Conservative Leader ÉRIC DUHAIME aren’t guaranteed to win their own seats tonight. And Duhaime is likely to have more of a disappointing night than his polls would have you believe. Though his upstart party’s support is in line with the other opposition parties, it’s distributed throughout a number of ridings he’s unlikely to win.

However, Duhaime’s Conservatives could perform well in the Beauce region south of Quebec City — notably, the area that People’s Party Leader MAXIME BERNIER calls home.

— The issues: Unsurprisingly, the cost of living is top of mind for many voters. But the CAQ’s controversial language law, Bill 96, has also played a major role in this campaign, amid widespread fears in Quebec about the decline of the French language.

Immigration has likewise been a hot-button topic, also due to concerns about protecting French. Last week, Legault said it would be “a bit suicidal” for Quebec to welcome more than 50,000 immigrants per year.

— What’s next: The polls are open today from 9:30 a.m. to 8 p.m. ET.

AROUND THE HILL


ON THE AGENDA — The Liberals will continue their push on C-30 and C-31 this week, their two big affordability bills tabled first thing this fall. Bill C-30, if you’ll recall, would double the GST credit for six months, while C-31 would provide help for low-income renters and a dental care benefit of up to C$650 for children under age 12.

House Speaker MARK HOLLAND indicated on Thursday he’s hoping to get Bill C-30 past the House this week. With the support of all parties, the bill passed second reading on Wednesday. Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND will appear before the House of Commons finance committee this afternoon to discuss the legislation.

— Bill C-31, on the other hand, is facing a rockier road . The Conservatives and Bloc Québécois do not support it, arguing the federal government shouldn’t be launching its own dental-care program. “Why would we trust the government to create new programs when it cannot run the programs it already has?” Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE asked in the Commons last month.

The bill will have the support of the NDP, of course, who are treating this as the first step toward a federally administered dental-care plan, a key pillar of their confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals. Bill C-31 will be back at second reading in the House of Commons today.

— Elsewhere: On Wednesday, MPs will debate Bill S-5, the Liberals’ proposed overhaul of the Canadian Environmental Protection Act.


#WELCOMETOCANADA — Roxham Road is officially back on the parliamentary agenda. The House of Commons ethics committee is meeting this afternoon to discuss a request from opposition parties to study the federal government’s expenditures on the unofficial border crossing along a rural road in Quebec.

The meeting follows bombshell reporting from ROMAIN SCHUÉ for Radio-Canada’s investigative program, Enquête. Last week, Schué reported that the federal government has spent more than half a billion dollars on the Roxham Road crossing, including on accommodations and transportation for the thousands of asylum seekers who cross the border there illegally every month.

Infrastructure along the border that was once temporary is looking increasingly permanent, Schué reported. And Ottawa has refused to divulge all the details of every contract, meaning it’s impossible to know exactly how much has been spent.

— One detail that grabbed the attention of opposition MPs on the ethics committee: Some of that money went to PIERRE GUAY , a businessman who owns property near the border and who just so happens to be an important Liberal donor.

— According to Radio-Canada: Bloc Québécois, Conservative and NDP MPs on the ethics committee are seeking a minimum of six meetings to study the matter, and want to hear from Guay, Immigration Minister SEAN FRASER and Public Safety Minister MARCO MENDICINO.

— The background: You may recall that Roxham Road was national news for a long time after it became a popular entry point for asylum seekers in 2017. Under the Canada-U.S. Safe Third Country Agreement, would-be refugees are turned back to the U.S. to claim refugee status there if they try to cross at an official port of entry. So instead, they cross illegally at Roxham Road, and are then able to claim asylum in Canada.

The Conservatives made hay with the issue at the time, but it dropped off the political map when Roxham Road was closed during the pandemic. Since the crossing reopened in November 2021, however, the numbers have been higher than ever.

— Different approach: This latest iteration of the Conservatives has largely kept quiet about Roxham Road. Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE’s most notable promise on immigration has been to make it easier for doctors and other professionals to practise in Canada.

Lately, therefore, Roxham Road has mostly just been making headlines in Quebec. In May, Quebec Premier FRANÇOIS LEGAULT said he was asking Ottawa to close the crossing. And last week, Quebec Conservative Leader ÉRIC DUHAIME faced questions about how he’d advocated for building a border wall in 2017.

— But now: Roxham Road is back on the federal political agenda.

— More from Enquête: Schué also reported last month on the lucrative industry that has cropped up the American side of the border to transport asylum seekers to Roxham Road.

PRE-BUDGET TIME — It’s never too early to start thinking about the budget. The parliamentary Black caucus is launching its annual pre-budget consultation today, in an effort to ensure the priorities of Black Canadians are heard. Submissions can be made here until Nov. 4 at 5 p.m. ET.

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS


9:30 a.m. Diversity and Inclusion Minister AHMED HUSSEN will make an announcement in Ottawa in support of Black Canadian communities.

1 p.m. (10 a.m. PDT) International Development Minister HARJIT SAJJAN will announce funding for projects at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver to advance mRNA vaccine research.

2 p.m. Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND will attend Question Period.

3:30 p.m. Freeland will appear before the House of Commons finance committee to discuss Bill C-30.

3:30 p.m. (1:30 p.m. MDT) Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON will make a community efficiency financing announcement in Calgary.

4 p.m. Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will present the Prime Minister’s Awards for Teaching Excellence. Families Minister KARINA GOULD will also attend.

MEDIA ROOM


— The attribute most often used to describe both JUSTIN TRUDEAU and PIERRE POILIEVRE in a recent poll: “arrogant.” Angus Reid Institute president SHACHI KURL considers “the unlikability factor” in an Ottawa Citizen column. 

— “In a lot of political news, you have people who are living less connected to the people around them in their communities, but they are more connected now to the outrages of strangers in other places,” journalist and political analyst CHRIS STIREWALT tells SEAN SPEER on Hub Dialogues. 

— From our colleagues in Europe: For LIZ TRUSS, the only way is up (or out).

MANDI JOHNSON, MELISSA CAOUETTE and MICHAEL SOLBERG join the West of Centre pod to discuss the many what nexts as the United Conservative Party reveals its new leader this week.

— The CBC’s YASMINE HASSAN checks in on SCOTT DUVALL, JAMES CUMMING, MARYAM MONSEF and other MPs who lost their seats in the 2021 federal election.

— The Narwhal’s DREW ANDERSON reports from the foothills of southwest Alberta on Indigenous-led conservation efforts against climate change.

PAPER TRAIL


MEAL PREP — Canadian Heritage is looking for a caterer for major events in the National Capital Region, and has some very specific requirements. The caterer has to have experience with events involving 200 or more guests, including public figures, government officials and diplomats.

Candidates have to submit two different menus for breakfasts, lunch buffets, dinner buffets, boxed lunches and boxed dinners.

Those menus have to include some very particular items. Boxed lunches, for example, must contain cheese cubes. The list of dinner options includes “chicken bonne femme,” which the the tender describes as a “classic dish featuring chicken breasts, bacon and potatoes.”

— Going green? The caterer must provide “100% single-use tableware,” though it must be either compostable or recyclable. Also, table napkins must be made of cloth, or must contain at least 70 percent recycled material.

PROZONE

In headlines for POLITICO Pro s: 

RCMP's use of facial recognition extends well beyond Clearview AI.

Joly: Canada 'seized’ by Europe’s gas crisis.

EU looks to push for tougher 2050 global shipping emissions target.

New UN telecoms chief urges governments to keep the internet on.

The war against superbugs caught in congressional quagmire.

PLAYBOOKERS


Birthdays: HBD to former MPs SVEN SPENGEMANN, PIERRE BRETON, DIANE FINLEY and MARJOLAINE BOUTIN-SWEET.  

Send birthdays to ottawaplaybook@politico.com.

Spotted: The flag on the Peace Tower at half-staff on Sunday in honor of the late BILL BLAIKIE. … JAGMEET SINGH marking his fifth anniversary as leader of the NDP.

Media mentions: For the west coasters, Overstory Media Group bought the Georgia Straight and editor in chief CHARLIE SMITH is leaving after 28 years … Canadaland’s JESSE BROWN is giving up his editor in chief post, too.

On the Hill


Find the latest on House committee meetings here.

Keep track of Senate committee meetings here.

11 a.m. CAROL TODD of the Amanda Todd Legacy Society will be the first witness up at the House status of women committee. MPs are studying the mental health of young women and girls.

11 a.m. KAT OWENS of the Women's Legal Education and Action Fund will be among the witnesses at the House justice committee, which is studying the government’s obligations to crime victims.

11 a.m. Mohawk Council of Akwesasne, K'atl'odeeche First Nation and Grand Council Treaty No. 3 are on the roster to appear before the House committee on Indigenous and northern affairs. Topic of the meeting: Arctic sovereignty and emergency preparedness.

11 a.m. Outsourcing of contracts is the theme of the day at the House committee on operations and estimates. Witnesses will include senior officials from public works, the Treasury Board Secretariat and Shared Services Canada.

11 a.m. The RCMP will be at the House industry committee this morning to discuss fraudulent calls in Canada.

3:30 p.m. Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND will be at the House finance committee to take questions about Bill C-30. Officials from the PBO will speak in the second block.

3:30 p.m. The House ethics committee meets to discuss a request to launch a study on the use of public funds in relation to Roxham Road.

3:30 p.m. The House transportation committee is talking about red tape and its cost on urban and municipal airports.

3:30 p.m. Black Business Initiative CEO RUSTUM SOUTHWELL will be at the House human resources committee where MPs pick up on their second meeting studying Ottawa’s Supporting Black Canadian Communities Initiative.

3:30 p.m. The House agriculture committee will hear from Équiterre, Agriculture Carbon Alliance, the National Farmers Union, Canadian Federation of Independent Business and others on Bill C-234. 

4 p.m. The Senate human rights committee will be discussing Islamophobia in Canada.

5:30 p.m. Former Supreme Court justice MICHEL BASTARACHE is due as a witness in the second block of the Senate official languages committee ’s meeting to study Bill C-13.

6:30 p.m. The House committee on science and research will hear from experts on research and scientific publication in French in its first hour.

Behind closed doors: Veterans affairs on committee business; the House foreign affairs committee will be discussing its report on vaccine equity.

TRIVIA


Friday’s answer: PHYLLIS WEBSTAD is the creator of Orange Shirt Day. 

Props to LISA KIRBIE, GORDON RANDALL, GREG MACEACHERN, ANNE-MARIE STACEY, NANCI WAUGH and ROBERT MCDOUGALL. 

Today’s question: Mississauga—Lakeshore MP SVEN SPENGEMANN resigned from the House on May 28. By what date must the byelection to replace him be announced?

Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Playbook wouldn’t happen: Without Luiza Ch. Savage and editor Sue Allan.

 

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