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Presented by General Atomics Aeronautical: A daily look inside Canadian politics and power. | | | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Zi-Ann Lum | | | Send tips | Subscribe here | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading the Ottawa Playbook. I'm your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey with Zi-Ann Lum. Today, U.S. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN is in town. ZI-ANN LUM is on the case. Plus, a conversation with a pollster who had a front-row seat to MARK SUTCLIFFE's victory in this week's mayoral race.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
Mark Sutcliffe delivers his victory speech after being elected Mayor of Ottawa in the 2022 municipal election, in Ottawa, on Monday, Oct. 24, 2022. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang | Justin Tang/CP | HOW TO WIN OTTAWA — Abacus Data CEO DAVID COLETTO has polled extensively on political issues for more than a decade, and his mug has been all over TV talking about what's on the minds of Canadians. But Coletto never been on the inside of a campaign until his friend and mentor MARK SUTCLIFFE ran for mayor — and won. Coletto had no formal title on the team, but summed it up as senior adviser. His job was to harness his well-known polling prowess as a "check in" on "making sure that what we were doing was what voters wanted." Playbook asked Coletto what he learned over several months of volunteer campaigning and zealous tweeting. He had a lot to say. — First-time partisan: "I observed in my own behavior an instinct to want to do really irrational things on Twitter, with people I normally like and were friends with. Something I really observed and understood was how hard it is to hold back your emotional attachment to the team you're working with and the candidate you support." — Forget the horse race: "When we did our initial survey in July, after Mark announced, that gave us the roadmap on how we could win the election. "It had nothing to do with whether people knew who Mark was, or whether they would vote for him or Catherine at that moment. It was all about: how did they feel about the city? What were the top issues? And where would they be four months later in October, when they're going to be asked to make that choice?" — The issues that mattered most: Housing affordability, cost of living, fixing light rail, and the economy — Mid-level issues: Climate change, homelessness and poverty — The issue that didn't matter: Outgoing mayor JIM WATSON . "If you followed the campaign only on Twitter, you would think Jim Watson was the least popular mayor Ottawa had ever had, even in the context of the convoy inquiry. That wasn't the sense I got in our general research." — Real vs. imagined problems: "Most voters are not paying that much attention. I learned very quickly how stressed you became about certain things that would happen, and our need to react in the moment. But most voters probably had no idea that most of the things we were reacting to were actually happening." — What lost him sleep: "When Mainstreet came out with a poll that showed Mark behind by 3 points late in the campaign, that same week our final poll had Mark ahead by 14. I was like, these both can't be true." (Sutcliffe's winning margin was 13.5 points.) — Popular candidates: "If you watched this campaign only on Twitter, you would think this was the nastiest municipal campaign that's ever happened in Ottawa politics — maybe in any municipal politics. But when you looked at the polling, one of the most fascinating things to me is that both Mark Sutcliffe and CATHERINE MCKENNEY ended the campaign with net positive favorability ratings. Mark's was plus-33. Catherine was plus-1." Related: Two rival co-chairs make nice on Twitter after the campaign — The challenge ahead: Coletto learned the city's true linguistic and ethnic diversity, as well as the sharp differences in priorities between downtown residents and farmers in the rural corners of the municipality. "It's a very hard city, I imagine, to govern, for that reason," he says. "It's a hard city to campaign in. It's a hard city in which to build a coalition."
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Secretary of State Antony Blinken boards a plane. | Alex Brandon/AP Photo | BLINKEN BILAT — Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN makes his first official visit to Canada today, the last country on his G-7 nations travel list. The high-profile visit is a win for Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY, who will get a chance to host Blinken in her hometown, Montreal, when the show moves there Friday. In a call with reporters ahead of the visit, BRIAN NICHOLS , assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere issues, outlined how the goal of the bilat is to “enhance North American economic security and competitiveness.” — Packed 48 hours: Nichols offered a buffet of broad topics up for discussion behind closed doors: Ukraine, the Indo-Pacific, the Arctic, Haiti, clean energy transition, USMCA implementation, NATO and NORAD, North American automotive cooperation, and “migration throughout the Americas and the world.” The Americans expect conversations about helping Haiti to “deepen” during the trip, Nichols said. He called Canada an “incredibly capable partner across a whole host of areas” and pointed to the Canadian Armed Forces and RCMP as examples, calling law enforcement and military “important skills in the international community.” CHARLES THE DIVIDER — The Bloc Québécois's valiant attempt to sever ties with the British monarchy, which ignored that Canada actually has its own monarch who so happens to be the same as the British one, failed in a decisive Wednesday House vote. "It is heartbreaking that the federalist parties are not in tune with their population and that they prefer to remain attached to expensive symbols, rather than seize the opportunity to modernize the Canadian political system," said Bloc leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET. — The republicans: 31 Bloc MPs voted in lockstep to flee the Crown. But 13 others joined them, including sometimes-maverick Liberal MP JÖEL LIGHTBOUND, Green MP MIKE MORRICE, and indie Quebecer MP ALAIN RAYES. Oh, and 10 New Democrats who split the caucus vote almost down the middle. Here's the tale of the tape on who's truly faithful to CHARLES III, and who'd rather drop him like it's hot. → Long live the king: LISA MARIE BARRON, RACHEL BLANEY, RICHARD CANNINGS, RANDALL GARRISON, PETER JULIAN, ALISTAIR MACGREGOR, BONITA ZARRILLO. → Down with the king: CHARLIE ANGUS, NIKI ASHTON, ALEXANDRE BOULERICE, LAUREL COLLINS, DON DAVIES, BLAKE DESJARLAIS, LEAH GAZAN, MATTHEW GREEN, LORI IDLOUT, JENNY KWAN.
| | TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS | | — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will speak with U.K. Prime Minister RISHI SUNAK — Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON heads to the White House for a meeting with JOHN PODESTA, senior adviser to JOE BIDEN for clean energy innovation and implementation. — Former senator DON MEREDITH is in court today . He faces three counts of sexual assault and one count of criminal harassment. 10:30 a.m. U.S. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN holds a meet and greet with employees and families from U.S. Mission Canada. 11:25 a.m. Blinken visits Café Ukraine with Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND and Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY. 11:30 a.m. NDP MP ALEXANDRE BOULERICE holds a news conference in a bill meant to improve working conditions. He'll be joined by Canadian Labour Congress Vice-President LARRY ROUSSEAU , CUPE National President MARK HANCOCK, United Steelworkers National Director MARTY WARREN and AIMTA Canadian general vice-president DAVID CHARTRAND. 12 p.m. Green Party of Canada Leadership Candidate SARAH GABRIELLE BARON hosts a news conference to announce her "six-month plan" and her "running mate" to be the party's deputy leader. 12:25 p.m. Blinken participates in a working lunch with Joly at 7 Rideau Gate. 1:35 p.m. Blinken meets with Joly. 2:35 p.m. Blinken holds a joint media availability with Joly at the Sir John A. Macdonald Building. 4:15 p.m. Blinken meets with African Union Commission Chairperson MOUSSA FAKI. 5 p.m. Trudeau and Blinken meet in West Block. 6 p.m. Blinken has dinner with Trudeau and Joly.
| | MEDIA ROOM | | — “I have a sneaking suspicion that Premier DANIELLE SMITH is currently about as competent at governing as I am at bowling,” professor LISA YOUNG writes in her latest blog post. “Fortunately for Smith, the bumpers are up.” — And here’s KEN BOESSENKOOL in a piece for CBC Opinion: “What does a head of lettuce have to do with Alberta's new cabinet?” — One more on Alberta from JESSE HARTERY in Policy Options: Is the Alberta Sovereignty Act constitutional? — Okay, just one more: Smith is considering the idea of political parties for Calgary and Edmonton. The Sun's RICK BELL has more . — DAVID MOSCROP's first Substack post: Why should we care about politics and economics? (It's a re-run of a 2016 Policy Options piece updated for 2022.) — POLITICO’s ELENI COUREA previews the first 100 days of RISHI SUNAK’s Britain . — And POLITICO’s PAUL MCLEARY talks to Ukraine defense minister OLEKSII REZNIKOV. What are you reading? Playbook wants to know .
| | | | A message from Team SkyGuardian Canada:   | | | | | PROZONE | | If you’re a , don’t miss our latest newsletter: Time for a new fiscal anchor? In other Pro headlines: — Voters to decide on largest environmental bond act in New York's history .
— Ukraine planting less wheat due to war, minister says.
— Von der Leyen tries to demine trans-Atlantic trade dispute.
— China, Russia criticize U.S. electric vehicle tax credit at WTO.
— GM CEO says their EVs will qualify for full federal tax credit within three years.
| | PLAYBOOKERS | | Birthdays: HBD to the NDP’s JACK HARRIS, former Ontario cabmin ROB SAMPSON, Yukon MLA JOHN STREIKER and PETER HERRNDORF . (Here’s Herrndorf from 2021 when he made the case to a Senate working group on the case for a modern day Massey Commission to boost the arts .) Birthdays, gatherings, social notices: Send them our way . Spotted: Ottawa Mayor JIM WATSON giving a shout out to Liberal MP JENNA SUDDS giving a shout out in the House to MARK SUTCLIFFE, Ottawa’s mayor-elect. The new council will be sworn in Nov. 15. Plus, here’s Watson with advice for Ottawa’s new council : “Always put your family ahead of everything else.” ELAMIN ABDELMAHMOUD in conversation with ADRIAN HAREWOOD to close out a season of Writers' Fest at Christ Church Cathedral. At PETER VAN DUSEN's Met party: JOHN IVISON, GUILLAUME ST-PIERRE, MARCO MENDICINO, MICHAEL CHONG, DANIEL MINDEN, ALEXANDER COHEN, HARTLEY WITTEN, MERON CHEWAT, ANNA LISA LOWENSTEIN, ANDIE HABERT, TALEEB NOORMOHAMED, and YUVAL DANIEL. Defense Minister ANITA ANAND logging a morning confab with U.S. Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN. On the agenda: Ukraine, as well as regional defense and security. MP FRANCESCO SORBARA and Ambassador of Italy to Canada ANDREA FERRARI celebrating “75 years of bilateral relations” with a handshake: Buon anniversario. An invitation from Governor General MARY SIMON to drop by the visitor center at Rideau Hall on Halloween. Receipts for MARC GARNEAU's paid trip to speak at the JeJu Forum for Peace & Prosperity in Korea last month. Number of meals expensed: zero. Movers and shakers: Alberta MLA LEELA AHEER, the only UCP leadership candidate left out of DANIELLE SMITH's first Cabinet, announced she's not running for the UCP in the next election … Here’s Calgary’s Top 40 under 40 via Avenue Magazine. SCOTT GILLINGHAM was elected Winnipeg mayor with 27.5 percent of the vote ... DOMINIC BARTON joins Eurasia Group as a strategic counselor ... NEAL MACDONALD, a staffer for several Conservative MPs who helped guide CANDICE BERGEN through her stint as interim party leader, is leaving the Hill for Nova Scotia . ROSALYN STEVENS is back from parental leave, starting a new gig as director of strategic initiatives for Women and Gender Equality and Youth Minister MARCI IEN. Cocktail circuit: The Canadian Beverage Association hosts a 5:30 p.m. reception at the Met. Media mentions: TED FRASER, a former Global Affairs analyst who briefly reported for Foreign Policy Today, is editor at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada … Friends of Canadian Broadcasting launched applications for the 2023 Dalton Camp Award . The prize for the winning essay: C$10,000. Send Playbookers tips to ottawaplaybook@politico.com .
| | On the Hill | | — Find the latest House committee meetings here . — Keep track of Senate committees here . 8 a.m. Liberal MP ARIF VIRANI co-hosts an MP breakfast on plastic pollution with KAREN WIRSIG, plastics program manager at Environmental Defence. JUDITH ENCK of Beyond Plastics, an Obama-era administrator at the Environmental Protection Agency, will speak. 10 a.m. The Parliamentary Budget Officer will post a new report: “The Life Cycle Cost of the Canadian Surface Combatants — A Fiscal Analysis.” 11 a.m. Parliamentary Budget Officer YVES GIROUX will be at the House official languages committee as it studies Bill C-13. 11 a.m. The House public safety committee will hear from policing officials on Bill C-21. 11 a.m. The House procedure committee will consult CSIS, the National Capital Commission, Ottawa police and others as it talks about expanding the federal jurisdiction of the parliamentary precinct. 11 a.m. Professor MICHAEL BYERS is on the roster at the House national defense committee to inform its study on Arctic security. 12 p.m. The Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry will hold a press conference to discuss the release of its new report on the impact of and response to the 2021 floods in British Columbia. Senators ROBERT BLACK, PAULA SIMONS and MOBINA JAFFER will participate. 3:30 p.m. Blockchain is the word of the day in the first hour at the House industry committee. 3:30 p.m. The House Indigenous and northern affairs committee will hear from experts on Bill C-29, which would provide for the establishment of a national council for reconciliation. 3:30 p.m. The House justice committee continues its study of Bill C-28. Witnesses will include SUZANNE ZACCOUR, head of Feminist Law Reform. 3:30 p.m. The House committee on the status of women will gather information from experts about the mental health of women and girls. 6:30 p.m. Ottawa Mayor JIM WATSON will be guest of honor at the Special Joint Committee on the Declaration of Emergenc y. 6:45 p.m. Hearings related to Bill C-11 continue at the Senate transport and communications committee with witnesses from the Canadian National Institute for the Blind, h264 and ICI Television. 6:45 p.m. The Senate Indigenous peoples committee continues its study of the Cannabis Act. Behind closed doors: The Senate audit and oversight committee meets to “supervise and report on the Senate’s internal and external audits and related matters”; the Senate social affairs committee will keep its discussion of “future business” related to the role of gender-based analysis in policymaking hush-hush. The House natural resources committee. And the House health committee. The House committee on veterans’ affairs will be discussing its report on survivor pension benefits. The House operations committee will be talking “future business."
| | | | A message from Team SkyGuardian Canada: Learn about the remotely piloted multi-mission aircraft building Canadian industrial partnerships that deliver sovereignty and security for Canada. | | | | | TRIVIA | | Wednesday’s answer: Dropped from the Trudeau Cabinet last year at this time: MARC GARNEAU, BARDISH CHAGGER and JIM CARR. Props to readers who named all three: STEVE PRESANT, TRACY SALMON, LAURA JARVIS and ROBERT MCDOUGALL. Today’s question: “They streamed down the streets of Montreal — thousands upon thousands of ordinary citizens united in a shared love for a nation in peril.” Name three of the speakers who addressed the Unity Rally at the Place du Canada on this date in 1995. Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Alejandra Waase to find out how: awaase@politico.com . Playbook wouldn’t happen: Without Luiza Ch. Savage, Mike Zapler and Sue Allan.
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