Speaking of bonkers

By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Zi-Ann Lum with Philippe J. Fournier

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Ottawa Playbook will not publish Thursday or Friday. We'll return to our regular schedule on Nov. 28.

Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. We’re your hosts Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Zi-Ann Lum. The texts at the Rouleau Commission are getting juicy and three Cabmins take the hot seat today. The Freedom Convoy lawyer has created a “lose-lose situation” for the commission. Plus, 338Canada’s PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER shares a polling pulse check on a fave wedge issue.

Convoy lawyer Brendan Miller faces off against Commissioner Paul Rouleau. | Adrian Wyld, The Canadian Press

THINGS WE’VE LEARNED — The Rouleau Commission is chock full of tidbits of government life rarely revealed to the public. Cabinet confidence protects most conversations between ministers.

Tuesday’s document trove offered a bonanza from the behind-the-scenes texts and deliberations on ending the convoy protest:

M3: Turns out that’s shorthand for Minister Marco Mendicino.

“Urgh”: Mendicino’s phonetic pronunciation of Cabinet’s Incident Response Group.

"Colorful vernacular": That’s Mendicino's description of a conversation with former Ontario solicitor general SYLVIA JONES. A staffer's text message quoted Jones telling Mendicino: "You're not my f--king boss."

#Bromance: How commission co-lead counsel SHANTONA CHAUDHURY described a Feb. 5 text exchange between Mendicino and Justice Minister DAVID LAMETTI.

"You were perfect today. Thx," wrote Mendicino. "So were you buddy," replied Lametti.

There’s a ministers' group chat: And lots more texting.

One of the documents entered into evidence featured blurry screenshots of texts between Mendicino, Intergovernmental Affairs Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC and Transport Minister OMAR ALGHABRA. (A group chat! They’re just like the rest of us.)

The trio mocked messages then-Alberta premier JASON KENNEY sent to LeBlanc. "Your guy really screwed the pooch," Kenney wrote. "The trucker vax policy is obviously just dumb political theatre. Calling them all Nazis hasn't exactly helped." The premier griped about federal inaction on the province's request for assistance.

"Speaking of bonkers," Alghabra replied. "Totally," agreed LeBlanc.

— Who’s up today: Justice Minister DAVID LAMETTI, National Defense Minister ANITA ANAND and Transport Minister OMAR ALGHABRA.

THE SIDESHOW — The Rouleau Commission has committed long hours to the interrogation of the federal government's case for invoking the Emergencies Act. The lawyer for the convoy organizers, BRENDAN MILLER, was more interested in advancing an elaborate conspiracy theory.

— The inquiry's biggest self-own: Miller finally got his moment Tuesday to cross-examine Mendicino. This was the closest approximation yet to a direct showdown between convoyers and their government nemeses.

No federal official ever negotiated with protesters during the occupation of downtown Ottawa. On Tuesday, Miller inadvertently made the government's argument for avoiding a high-stakes meeting all on his own.

His cross-examination of Mendicino almost didn't happen.

— Here's the tl;dr version: Miller demanded redactions to government-submitted evidence. He berated Rouleau for not ruling on that request. He interrupted Rouleau until the commissioner with a reputation for limitless patience kicked him out of the room.

Rouleau released a lunch-break ruling that some redactions be removed. Eventually he allowed Miller back into the room.

— Then it got weird: With the room's full attention, Miller advanced a conspiracy theory that a government plant who works for a Liberal-friendly lobbying firm acted as a "false flag" protester by carrying a Nazi flag amid the demonstration. Miller added that a photographer who snapped photos of the apparent agent provocateur worked for the prime minister.

Miller made the claims outside and inside the commission. Spoiler: There are holes in the theory. To nobody's surprise, Enterprise is suing Miller for defamation .

WHAT IT ALL MEANS — Miller has a chance to cross-examine every witness. STEPHANIE CARVIN, a national security expert and former government analyst, tells Playbook the commission will be between a rock and a hard place during the next three days.

"Mr. Miller has been disorganized. He's gotten names wrong. He's gotten institutions wrong. He has struggled with the facts of how central agencies function," she said. "But he's also elicited some of the most interesting responses from witnesses. I wouldn't say he's abused the process in any way up until this point."

But the lawyer appears to have entered a new phase.

If Rouleau allows Miller to speak freely, he's opening the door to more conspiracy. If Rouleau repeatedly cuts off Miller, it will spawn new conspiracies. "When Mr. Miller was asked to leave, all of a sudden the pro-convoy media channels monitoring this exploded. They were saying this is rigged, it's unfair, it's a conspiracy," Carvin said.

— The bottom line: "It's a lose-lose situation, but it's one that Justice Rouleau has to manage."

— The ultimate showdown: The stakes will only get higher later this week when Miller rises to question Trudeau and his staff.

Do you enjoy Ottawa Playbook? Maybe you know others who would like it, too. Point them to this link where they can sign up for free.

INFLATION WHISPERERS — Expect at least one MP to ask Bank of Canada Governor TIFF MACKLEM today if he expects the inflation rate to continue to climb.

It’s basically a tradition every time Macklem is at a parliamentary committee.

Macklem will drop by the House finance committee to discuss the central bank’s most recent monetary report . It’ll give him an opportunity to spin through some high-level thematic messages and contextualize the pinch of higher prices.

Tuesday in Ottawa, the bank’s No. 2 gave a sneak peek to what those points will be.

Deputy Governor CAROLYN ROGERS said some pain is part of the inflation-taming process, particularly among new homeowners who opted for variable-rate mortgages.

She said the bank has a close eye on household debt and housing.

— For the record : “But there are good reasons to believe that the system as a whole will be able to weather this period of stress and remain resilient,” she said.

“Since the 2008–09 global financial crisis, countries around the world have put in place a series of reforms — including higher capital and liquidity levels at banks — to shore up financial system resilience and protect against future shocks. Here at home, these measures also included a borrower-level mortgage stress test to ensure Canadians could continue to afford their homes when interest rates rose.”

— A recession prediction: Rogers said the bank is not expecting a “severe economic downturn with the kind of large job losses typical of past recessions.”

— It’s caucus day on the Hill.

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Ottawa and will meet with Belarus Opposition Leader SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA before attending caucus. Trudeau will be in question period at 2 p.m.

— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Toronto to deliver remarks at the Rebuild Ukraine Business Conference at 9 a.m.

8 a.m. The Rebuild Ukraine conference starts in Toronto. The all-day event features speakers including Ukraine’s Ambassador to Canada YULIA KOVALIV, Ukrainian Deputy Economy Minister TETIANA BEREZHNA and Canada-Ukraine Chamber of Commerce President ZENON POTICHNY.

1 p.m. Health Minister JEAN-YVES DUCLOS will be at a closed Ottawa elementary school-turned vaccination clinic to hold a media availability about pediatric vaccination. Duclos will be joined by Toronto and Ottawa Medical Officers of Health, EILEEN DE VILLA and VERA ETCHES.

4:30 p.m. Sen. ROB BLACK and Conservative MP JOHN NATER want the Saturday before the first Monday in August as “Food Day in Canada” and they’re up at the House agriculture committee to talk about Bill S-227 , the Senate public bill being proposed to make that a reality.

50 YEARS OF PUBLIC POLICY — The Institute for Research on Public Policy (IRPP) marks the half-century milestone today at a National Arts Centre celebration. JENNIFER DITCHBURN, the think tank's president, spoke to Playbook about what she learned on a year-long, cross-country tour of public policy and public administration schools.

— The big issues: The IRPP asked every university to serve up a priority that might not be — but should be — on policymakers' radar. Dalhousie picked housing. Simon Fraser chose climate resilience. Calgary focused on the energy transition. Regina went with Indigenous governance. Toronto and Laval talked about polarization.

— The takeaways: Ditchburn was struck by the interconnectedness of each policy. Climate-fueled disasters have an impact on those in vulnerable housing. A shift away from coal-powered electricity in Hanna, Alta., required genuine community engagement.

Solving one major problem, she says, requires an attempt to solve every problem.

— Collaboration 101: The early days of the pandemic disrupted federal-provincial relations as governments scrambled to contain the emergency.

"Governments managed to do things together, cut corners, cut red tape and got things happening," she says. But that cooperation could be the exception, not the rule, in a country run by siloed bureaucracies.

"It's not a glamorous problem for governments to take on," Ditchburn says. "What politician is going to go out and say, 'I'm going to fix how the federation talks to each other?' "

WELCOME TO CANADA, OR NO — Immigration Minister SEAN FRASER recently unveiled the federal government's new immigration targets.

In turn, Léger asked Canadians for their thoughts.

— The survey set up: "The Government of Canada recently released its immigration plan, which is to welcome 465,000 immigrants to Canada in 2023, 485,000 in 2024 and 500,000 in 2025. In 2021, Canada admitted over 405,000 immigrants. Which of the following best reflects your opinion about the government's plan?"

— The results: 49 percent of respondents think the target is too high; 31 percent says it’s the right number. Only 5 percent believe it should be even higher.

— Regional breakdown: The proportion of those who consider the immigration targets too high ranges from 42 percent in Atlantic Canada to 58 percent in the Prairies.

— For your radar: The crosstabs by party support indicates the immigration plan could prove polarizing. For example, 65 percent of Conservative supporters believe it will bring in too many immigrants, while 22 percent think the number is about right.

Among Liberal voters, half believe targets are adequate; 30 percent believe they’re too high. NDP respondents are almost evenly split: 36 percent say “too high”; 38 percent think the number is about right.

— Focus on Quebec: Although we must be careful to draw conclusions from small sample sizes, 71 percent of Bloc Québécois voters believe the government's targets are too high.

This is not entirely surprising given that immigration was a hot topic during the Quebec election. Newly re-elected Quebec Premier FRANÇOIS LEGAULT argues that welcoming more than 50,000 new immigrants per year would compromise Quebec’s ability to "integrate" newcomers (meaning to teach them French).

The new plan would force Quebec to double that amount or else watch its demographic weight within the country diminish.

— Housing and health: When asked whether voters are concerned the immigration plan "will result in excessive demand for housing and health services," a clear majority of respondents (75 percent) say they are concerned (including 42 percent who said they are "very concerned"). Even when we break down results by voting intentions, we see supporters of all major parties more concerned than not on this sensitive issue.

— Also for your radar: While the business community may rejoice in the idea of more potential workers, this poll suggests political leaders will have to convince a large chunk of voters that the new targets will be a benefit, both to them and to the country.

— Bottomline: Although there is a broad consensus across party lines that immigration has served Canada (and Canadians) well, the new plan projects to add close to four million newcomers before the end of the decade. It does not come without risks.

For POLITICO Pro s, our latest policy newsletter: Interference questions follow PM back to Hill.

In news for POLITICO Pro s: 
— Canada to impose carbon tax on three Atlantic provinces.
— U.S. and Russia ‘can’t stop’ Turkey’s new Syria incursion.
— Labor Department reverses Trump-era limits on ESG investments.
— Biden administration approves oil export terminal in the Gulf of Mexico.
— Inside EPA's new social cost of carbon.

Snowfall in Washington. | Getty Images

— Germany and France join forces to take on the threat of the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act subsidies. POLITICO’s HANS VON DER BURCHARD and GIORGIO LEALI have the details .

— TIFF MACKLEM slides in at No. 2 on Toronto Life’s ranking of the 50 most influential Torontonians . Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is No. 4. Ontario Premier DOUG FORD is sandwiched in between.

— Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH uncorked anti-inflation benefits during a televised address on Tuesday night. The Herald's DON BRAID breaks it down.

— FRANK STRONACH in the National Post with column proposing a “double-barrelled approach” to cut government bloat to help Canadian businesses.

— The upcoming Mississauga-Lakeshore byelection will have at least 40 candidates on the ballot. PATRICK CAIN reports in iPolitics on the long list of names requiring a special ballot.

Birthdays: HBD to Liberal MP ARIF VIRANI, former Northwest Territories premier FLOYD ROLAND and ex-Quebec MNA NORMAND JUTRAS. Former Liberal Cabinet minister JANE PHILPOTT also celebrates today.

Send birthdays to ottawaplaybook@politico.com .

Spotted: Unanimous consent in the House for NDP MP BLAKE DESJARLAIS’ motion to condemn FIFA’s decision on #OneLove armbands.

Romania’s Ambassador to Canada BOGDAN MĂNOIU greeted by parliamentarians in West Block … Liberal MP BRYAN MAY posting a latergram picture of him in front of the Pentagon after a meeting with “officials.”

At the NATO Parliamentary Assembly in Madrid: Senators MOHAMED-IQBAL RAVALIA, PIERRE-HUGUES BOISVENU and JANE CORDY, Bloc MP CHRISTINE NORMANDIN, Conservative MP CHERYL GALLANT, Liberal MPs JENNIFER O'CONNELL and JULIE DZEROWICZ.

Movers and shakers: CATHERINE GODIN has been appointed Canada’s new ambassador to Poland… ERIC WALSH has been tapped to be Canada’s new high commissioner in Sri Lanka.

Sen. MARY COYLE , Queen Elizabeth II’s platinum jubilee medal recipient .

Media mentions: Former Maclean’s editor ALISON UNCLES has been named VP of PPF Media at the Public Policy Forum.

Send Playbookers tips to ottawaplaybook@politico.com .

→ Find upcoming House committees here

→ Keep track of Senate committees here

9 a.m. Mental Health and Addictions Minister CAROLYN BENNETT will make an announcement in Ottawa related to National Addictions Awareness Week.

12 p.m. The Senate subcommittee on veterans affairs will hear from psychiatry and psychedelic studies experts as it explores treatments for veterans suffering from occupational stress injuries.

12:15 p.m. Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON has a funding announcement in Ottawa related to the government’s promise to plant two billion trees.

1:30 p.m. Ernst & Young representatives will be at the Senate’s audit and oversight committee.

4 p.m. A Senate public bill proposing to designate November Lebanese Heritage Month is up for discussion at the upper chamber’s social affairs committee .

4:15 p.m. The Senate legal and constitutional affairs committee meets on Bill S-205 .

4:30 p.m. The House transport committee will launch a new study looking at inter-city bus transport.

4:30 p.m. The House foreign affairs committee will go through clause-by-clause of Bill S-223 , a Senate public bill proposing new offenses under the Criminal Code related to human organ trafficking.

6:45 p.m. The Senate Indigenous peoples committee meets to take on two topics of discussion: Follow up on the Cannabis Act; and briefings with Auditor General KAREN HOGAN and Correctional Investigator IVAN ZINGER.

6:45 p.m. The Senate national finance committee meets to study the government’s legislation to implement certain provisions of the Fall Economic Statement.

6:45 p.m. The Senate transport and communications committee meets for cause-by-clause consideration of Bill C-11 .

Behind closed doors: The House foreign affairs committee will meet partially in-camera to discuss “committee business,” before reviewing a draft report looking at the situation at the Russia-Ukraine border.

U.S. President Joe Biden and Chocolate. | Andrew Harnik/AP Photo

Tuesday’s answer: CHOCOLATE and CHIP are the turkeys who received a “pardon” this week at the White House.

Props to LOUISE BLAIS, HÉLÈNE CHEVALIER, PIERRE JURY, TRACY SALMON, BRUNO KRISTENSEN, STEPHANIE CRAIG, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, AMY CASTLE, SCOTT LOHNES, FAYE ROBERTS, STEVE PRESANT, BILL DAY, DOUG SWEET, TOM CORMIER, DAVID MCLENNAN, GREG MACEACHERN, KEVIN COLBOURNE, MICHELLE JOHNSTON, JOANNE MONTY, PAUL WESTCOTT, RODDY MCFALL, BRAM ABRAMSON, DOUG RICE, ELIZABETH BURN, MURRAY WILSON, BARBARA GRANTHAM, JOHN DILLON and JENN KEAY.  

Wednesday’s question: Name the former Cabinet minister who offered up the following observation about social media: “For every nasty thing that’s said, there are 10 others who take note of what you are saying, who listen. That compensates for the harsh, cruel things that get said.”

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Playbook wouldn’t happen: Without Luiza Ch. Savage and Sue Allan.

Follow us on Twitter

Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey Sue Allan @susan_allan Maura Forrest @MauraForrest Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa

Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family

Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook

View all our political and policy newsletters

Follow us

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://www.politico.com/_login?base=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings

This email was sent to by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA

Please click here and follow the steps to .