Ticket to ride

From: POLITICO Ottawa Playbook - Thursday Jan 12,2023 11:01 am
A daily look inside Canadian politics and power.
Jan 12, 2023 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Zi-Ann Lum

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Thanks for reading the Ottawa Playbook. I'm your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey with Zi-Ann Lum. The nation's air carriers and airports are preparing to eat varying levels of crow today. Plus, we have the latest on who is heading to Davos. Also, our latest edition of Fundraiser Watch 2023.

DRIVING THE DAY

DECODING CHAOS — Today's marathon House transport committee meetings could feel like a lazy weekend at a music festival: It will feature openers who serve up tepid levels of excitement, before the highly anticipated headliner appears, under pressure to deliver a show-stealing performance that lives up to the hype.

MPs will spend much of their working hours interrogating the main culprits behind holiday travel chaos that marooned Canadians in various and sundry locales.

They'll also grill department officials and OMAR ALGHABRA, the transport minister who has repeatedly expressed disappointment in some of the witnesses who will appear ahead of him at the committee — and pledged to improve passenger protections.

— What the opposition wants: Aside from sound bites about justice for paying customers?

The government's feisty foes will extract all the material they need from airlines and airports to pressure Alghabra for tangible, permanent, legislative and regulatory fixes that hold corporations accountable when they fall flat on their faces and leave customers high and dry.

— The first act: At 10:30, the airlines take the hot seat. Air Canada's VP of systems operations control, KEVIN O'CONNOR, will join by videoconference alongside DAVID RHEAULT, VP of government and community relations.

WestJet VP external affairs ANDREW GIBBONS will be in the room. Beside him will be SCOTT WILSON , VP of flight operations; and JARED MIKOCH-GERKE, director of government relations and regulatory affairs.

They'll be joined IRL by LEN CORRADO, president of Sunwing Airlines, who will face the music beside colleague ANDREW DAWSON, president of tour operations at Sunwing Travel Group. (In the festival analogy, these are the headline-making show-stealers.)

— The second act: At noon, three major airport authorities take their turn for 90 minutes. The panel includes Aéroports de Montréal CEO PHILIPPE RAINVILLE and VP public affairs MARTIN MASSÉ. Greater Toronto Airports Authority president and CEO DEBORAH FLINT will join by video link, as will Vancouver Airport Authority president and CEO TAMARA VROOMAN.

The airport execs might not get a grilling for December snafus, but expect Tory MP MARK STRAHL to rope them into a larger conversation about travel woes.

Strahl could attempt to revive last summer's toxic mix of lengthy delays, canceled flights, and interminably long security lines that spelled misery at the nation's largest airports.

— Not on the docket (yet): Via Rail, passenger rights' groups. They'll have to wait.

THE HEADLINER — Having spent three hours gathering ammo, MPs will take an hour-long break to eat lunch and collect their thoughts before Alghabra enters the room at 2:30.

He'll stay an hour.

The minister will bring an entourage of senior bureaucrats from Transport Canada.

The Canadian Transportation Agency is (virtually) sending chair and CEO FRANCE PÉGEOT, alongside TOM OOMMEN, director general of the Analysis and Outreach Branch.

IN SEARCH OF SOLUTIONS — Alghabra's post-holiday media tour offered strong hints of what he'll tell committee members today.

Last Saturday, the minister told CBC's The House that airlines should shoulder more responsibility for compensation before complaints are filed. "Currently, it feels to many passengers that the burden is on them," he told host CATHERINE CULLEN. "We want to make sure we put rules in place to ensure that the burden is on the airline."

On last week's CBC "At Issue" pod, the Toronto Star's well-sourced ALTHIA RAJ previewed "five or six" specific measures coming this winter. Per Raj's reporting, those include:

→ More powers for Canadian Transportation Authority staff to resolve routine complaints. Currently, only the eight members of the CTA board of directors can adjudicate complaints — which helps explain why the backlog sits in the tens of thousands.

→ Airlines would shoulder more of the costs associated with adjudication of complaints.

→ More money infused into the CTA's operations

— The rebuttal: On the pod, Globe and Mail columnist ANDREW COYNE dismissed the Air Passenger Protection Regulations meant to protect consumers as a "complete waste of time." What Canada really needs is more foreign competition in Canadian skies — an opinion shared by KORY TENEYCKE on the Curse of Politics.

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Ottawa for a bilateral visit from Japanese PM FUMIO KISHIDA.

— International Development Minister HARJIT SAJJAN is still in the Caribbean.

9:30 a.m. NDP MP TAYLOR BACHRACH will hold a press conference and demand the government "improve compensation and protections for air passengers."

11:25 a.m. Trudeau and Kishida will have a meeting.

11:30 a.m. Trudeau and Kishida will have a larger meeting. Trade Minister MARY NG, Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY and Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE will sit in.

12:35 p.m. Trudeau will host an official luncheon for Kishida.

2:30 p.m. Trudeau and Kishida will hold a joint media availability.

6:30 p.m. CT Tory leader PIERRE POILIEVRE attends a Winnipeg fundraiser.

For your radar

G-7 HOMEWORK — Japanese Prime Minister FUMIO KISHIDA meets Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU in Ottawa today on the fourth leg of a five-country tour to lay groundwork for May’s leaders’ summit in Hiroshima, Japan.

A senior Japanese government official not authorized to speak publicly about the high-level bilat told Playbook possible agenda items include ambitions for a “free and open Indo Pacific,” economic issues, and G-7 summit coordination. Further defense cooperation is also a potential topic.

— Busy week: Defense and security have been clear themes in Kishida’s meetings with U.K. Prime Minister RISHI SUNAK , French President EMMANUEL MACRON and Italian Prime Minister GIORGIA MELONI. Kishida meets with President JOE BIDEN on Friday.

SPEAKING OF JAPAN — Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON is flying to Tokyo on Sunday and will stay most of next week. He returns Thursday.

— Who's joining him: A business delegation representing "several natural resources sectors, notably critical minerals." Four Indigenous organizations will accompany the minister — an NRCan first.

— Target audience: Wilkinson & Co. will meet with Japanese business leaders. Wilkinson will meet with his ministerial counterparts.

— The mission: "Canada is looking to be the clean energy supplier of choice in a net-zero world," said a source in Wilkinson's office. "We’re making a concerted effort to strengthen government-to-government ties, but also business-to-business ties with friends, allies and partners around the world."

— The vibe: "This is very much a business trip. It’s not going to be flashy," the source told Playbook. "It’s about putting in the groundwork to build long-term relationships with our Japanese friends."

— Timing: Wilkinson’s Japan trip comes a week after U.S. Secretary of Energy JENNIFER GRANHOLM and Japanese Economy, Trade and Industry Minister NISHIMURA YASUTOSHI met in Washington.

DONOR WARS — The January fundraising circuit is heating up as Tories and Liberals gear up for big-city fundraisers next Monday.

Hot on the heels of C$1,700-per-attendee events in Toronto and Winnipeg, PIERRE POILIEVRE is headed to Montreal's Villa Rosa restaurant for an evening with the same minimum donation organized by former CPC candidate AGOP EVEREKLIAN. (The former star candidate once landed in "hot water" for controversial business dealings.)

— Meanwhile, in North York: Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND will take time away from pre-budget number crunching to headline a fundraiser at the International Union of Painters and Allied Trades Hall — a homebase for one of several trade unions that endorsed DOUG FORD before last year's provincial vote. The "regular" admission is C$1,000.

The event's host is Mississauga East-Cooksville MP PETER FONSECA. He also chairs the House finance committee tasked with sorting through hundreds of pre-budget submissions.

WEF SEASON — We're still tracking any and all Ottawa power players planning flights to the World Economic Forum's annual Davos summit. Here's our latest in/out list.

Who's in:Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND (who appears on the long list of marquee attendees), Quebec Economy Minister PIERRE FITZGIBBON

Who's out: Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU, Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE, Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY , Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON, Quebec Premier FRANÇOIS LEGAULT

Are you a press sec whose minister is going to Davos? Maybe you know a deputy minister who has a ticket booked? Maybe you'll be on a plane next week? We know this was the talk of your group chat. Don't wait for us to ask. Email us! "On Background," we know.

FROM THE DESK OF 338CANADA

READING THE TEA LEAVES — The good money says we're at least a year away from a federal election. Maybe even two. Sure, the polls in the heat of that next campaign might look wildly different from the state of today's horse race. But as #cdnpoli enters 2023, 338Canada's PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER decodes the latest numbers.

— Where were we? Polls at the end of 2022 told us what they'd said all year. Liberals and Conservatives fought to a dead heat for popular support. The NDP barely, and rarely, broke the 20 percent mark. The Bloc Québécois steadily hit the high 20s and low 30s in Quebec.

The 338Canada model gives a slight edge in voting intentions to the Conservatives. But JUSTIN TRUDEAU and PIERRE POILIEVRE's party are neck and neck in seat projections.

This is good and bad news for the prime minister and his main opponent.

— What the polls say about Poilievre: The greatest recruitment drive for a leadership contest in Canadian history occurred in 2022. One might expect the CPC to have enjoyed a statistically significant — if temporary — boost in popular support shortly after Poilievre's massive win.

Some polls in late 2022 pegged his party's support as high as 38 percent at the national level. But the weighted average of polls places the Conservatives closer to 35 percent — barely one point more than ERIN O'TOOLE's election result in 2021.

The latest federal numbers from the Angus Reid Institute indicated non-CPC voters hold a highly unfavorable impression of the CPC leader. In fact, favorable impressions of Poilievre were in single digits among Liberal, Bloc and NDP voters.

Meanwhile, 86 percent of PPC voters held a favorable impression. Poilievre appears to have mobilized the conservative base, not expanded it.

— Trudeau's challenge: The Liberals have not been able to make gains at Poilievre's expense.

Late-December data from Nanos Research measured Trudeau as the preferred choice as PM, with 31 percent against 27 for Poilievre.

But 43 percent of those polled believed Canada was headed in the wrong direction — a figure similar to those of one year ago (40 percent in 2021), but significantly higher than in December 2020 (27 percent) or December 2019 (34 percent). In short, the Trudeau Liberals are hanging on.

— Hindsight wisdom: The Liberals must be thankful they pushed voters to the polls in 2021, an "unnecessary" election in the eyes of his critics. The next regularly scheduled federal election would have fallen this coming October. No PM of any party would want to enter an election year with raging inflation, high interest rates and economic uncertainty.

— Word to the wise : There will soon be a flurry of new polls testing the mood of the electorate. Some will show tight races, some will suggest dramatic momentum shifts, and some will contradict others entirely.

Here's why: Pollsters use different methods, such as live callers, automated calls and internet panels. They have different samples, and different assumptions behind their weighted calculations. Fluctuations in the data are normal.

Naturally, we should proceed with caution and not overanalyze a single poll instead of focusing on general trends. But remember: weighted averages are your friend. Don’t forget to bookmark your favorite statistical model of electoral projections. Ahem.

MEDIA ROOM

— Canada and Mexico teamed up to beat the U.S. in a fight over auto rules of origin — a key test of the revamped continental free trade deal. POLITICO's DOUG PALMER breaks it down (for s).

— From The Narwhal: How a First Nations legal challenge could completely change mining exploration in B.C.

— The Globe editorial board penned an evergreen call for a rethink of supply management.

— Local process nerd KADY O'MALLEY chimes in with a look at how the Liberal-NDP deal has — and hasn’t — made Trudeau’s job easier.

— ICYMI from CBC News: B.C. Mountie's anti-Trudeau website raises concerns about discriminatory views within the RCMP

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to Tory MP KERRY-LYNNE FINDLAY, former caucus colleague COSTAS MENEGAKIS, former B.C. premier GORDON CAMPBELL, former Ontario lieutenant governor HILARY WESTON, and former Alberta NDP leader RAJ PANNU.

Birthdays, gatherings, social notices: Send them our way.

Spotted: Lawyer and politico KATHRYN MARSHALL, starting the year with a plea to colleagues: "Make it a resolution this year to do as much pro bono work as you are able to manage. Even just a few hours a month. Access to justice can not only be for the wealthy. It starts with us."

LUCAS MEYER, breaking down a frenetic hallway scrum featuring Rep. GEORGE SANTOS (R-N.Y.). Come for the sports analogies, stay for the insight: "A-level scrumming by the congressional press corps."

PHILIP DUGUAY, with a message for policymakers: "Ottawa/Canada will miss a goal on an empty net if we do not start developing interregional transmission plans alongside/with our American neighbors."

CATHERINE CLARK, hosting a book launch for DAVID JOHNSTON at Library and Archives Canada next Monday. The book is "Empathy: Turning Compassion into Action."

Economist MIKE MOFFATT, poring over new StatsCan data on population growth in Ontario. Moffatt tracks the province's fastest-growing cities.

Movers and shakers: Volkswagen already has Canadian and K Street consultants signed up on its behalf in the federal lobbyist registry. Volkswagen's in-house team registered on Wednesday, including 27 employees and senior officers.

KENZIE MCKEEGAN is back at Loyalist Public Affairs as senior director. She left her post as Trade Minister MARY NG's operations director in December.

Media mentions: The Star's JOSHUA CHONG wraps up an internship at the paper — and tweets his best work on the way out.

Send Playbookers tips to ottawaplaybook@politico.com.

PROZONE

If you’re a , don’t miss our latest policy newsletter from MAURA FORREST and ZI-ANN LUM: A big test of the USMCA

In other Pro headlines:
U.S. suffers big auto trade loss under Trump's NAFTA replacement pact
Biden administration lays out timeline for initial Medicare drug price negotiations
New Jersey could get $508M from nationwide settlements related to opioid crisis
EU’s green agenda has its trading partners seeing red
POLITICO Pro Q&A: SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda

On the Hill

Find the latest on House committee meetings here.

Keep track of Senate committee meetings here.

The House returns Jan. 30; the Senate returns Jan. 31.

TRIVIA

Wednesday’s trivia answer: Renowned Japanese-Canadian architect RAYMOND MORIYAMA designed Canada's embassy in Tokyo. (He was also the architect behind your Playbook host's junior high school in Scarborough — as well as the same former city's civic center).

Props to JOHN DELACOURT ("It's a thing of beauty, IMHO"), JOHN ECKER ("Very peaceful place"), JOE MACDONALD, LAURA JARVIS, GORDON RANDALL, DOUG RICE, JOANNA PLATER, ETHEL FORESTER, ROBERT MCDOUGALL ("I worked there for four years"), AMY CASTLE, SARAH ANSON-CARTWRIGHT, ANNE-MARIE STACEY and DOUG SWEET.

Today’s question: Which notable legislation did former transport minister MARC GARNEAU table in the House on June 5, 2017?

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com

Playbook wouldn’t happen: Without Luiza Ch. Savage and Sue Allan.

 

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