BOUNCE BACK — Recent polls have shown the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals, with some giving the Tories their largest lead since the 2015 election.
But over the weekend, 338Canada updated its federal seat projections and gave the Liberals 147 ridings, with the Conservatives back at 138. The projections still have the Conservatives with an edge on the popular vote, but they give the Liberals a 56 percent chance of winning the most seats, compared to the Tories’ 43 percent. It’s the first time this year the poll aggregator has shown the Liberals with greater odds than the Conservatives of winning an election. But 338Canada founder and POLITICO columnist PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER cautions that “both parties are still essentially tied.” The Liberals currently hold 158 seats in the House of Commons, while the Tories have 116. — Why the change? It’s all about Ontario, Fournier tells Playbook. There were some polls in December and January that showed the Conservatives making inroads in the province, but there wasn’t much data during that period, and those may have been “statistical anomalies,” he said. “Right now, the bump back up for the Liberals is entirely due to the numbers in Ontario being back to normal, or normal-ish.” — Also running: The latest 338Canada projections give the Bloc Québécois 32 seats — the same number they currently hold — and the NDP 19, down from 25 right now. (NDP MP DON DAVIES took exception to this.) The Greens clock in at two seats. LANGUAGE LAW — The Liberals’ internal fight over planned changes to the Official Languages Act continues to simmer. In case you missed it, Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU on Friday told reporters that all his ministers will vote in favor of Bill C-13. This came shortly after one of said ministers, MARC MILLER, left open the door last week to voting against it. It’s still unclear whether the Liberals will whip votes for the entire caucus on C-13 when it eventually gets through committee and returns to the House of Commons. Several MPs who represent Montreal ridings with large English-speaking populations are concerned about references in the bill to the Quebec Charter of the French Language, and what that could mean for the province’s anglophone minority. — In the meantime: Tensions are still running high. Liberal MP MARC GARNEAU, one of the Montreal MPs, got into a Twitter spat with Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET over the weekend. For Le Devoir, columnist MICHEL DAVID called Garneau et al. “a handful of ‘angryphones.’” And for La Presse, MICHEL C. AUGER claimed that at the heart of the issue lies a “false equivalence” between Quebec’s English-speaking minority and the minority French-speaking communities elsewhere in the country. — The last word: For the Toronto Star, here’s CHANTAL HÉBERT’s attempt to set the record straight. IN MEMORIAM — PETER HERRNDORF died Saturday at age 82. “Our hearts are broken,” read a tweet from the National Arts Centre. Herrndorf was head of Ottawa’s National Arts Centre for two decades, chairman and CEO of TVO, a senior exec at CBC, publisher of Toronto Life and more. “Herrndorf’s contribution to Canada and the arts is so vast it can’t be measured,” JAMES MOORE said on Twitter. “And he achieved it all with class, humour and dignified determination. As Heritage Minister he helped me to ‘get it’ (the arts) and the torch he passes will take thousands to carry.” The CBC’s obituary is here. “No Canadian devoted himself to building and celebrating Canadian culture for as long as Peter did, with as much passion and good humour, and with so many spectacular results,” PAUL WELLS wrote of his friend and mentor. Concert pianist ANGELA HEWITT called Herrndorf “a great figure and inspiration in the arts world in Canada.” GERRY BUTTS described him as “a quintessential Winnipegger.” ADRIAN HAREWOOD said “he was warm, witty, decent & kind.” Labor Minister SEAMUS O’REGAN tweeted: “He smiled broadly, thought deeply, dreamed big, and was the best kind of company.” “Such big vision. Such big heart,” ROSIE THOMPSON writes in a tribute. Flags at the NAC will fly at half-staff for the rest of the month. | 
