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Presented by Electricity Canada: A daily look inside Canadian politics and power. | | | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey | | |
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Thanks for reading the Ottawa Playbook. I'm your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey, with Maura Forrest and Zi-Ann Lum. First up, we have news on a caucus of border Republicans out to draw the line. Here in Ottawa, MPs are talking round and round. We have itineraries, media highlights and results from Playbook Trivia at The Met. |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) on Capitol Hill, Jan. 10, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | THE NORTHERN FRONTIER — Republican lawmakers gathered in the Washington sunshine this week to launch the House northern border security caucus. They brought oversized charts and welcomed the president of the Buffalo branch of the National Border Patrol Council to the microphone. BRANDON BUDLONG, who has worked the Canada-U.S. border for seven years, used his time to criticize President JOE BIDEN and Canadian immigration and border policy. Agents struggle to watch over the border, which runs thousands of miles across land and water, he said. He made a lot of claims. The CBC’s Alexander Panetta wrote on Tuesday’s presser, noting: “Not a single American reporter showed up.” — About the northern border security caucus: It’s made up of 28 Republican lawmakers whose districts touch Canada, including former secretary of the interior RYAN ZINKE and ELISE STEFANIK, the co-chair of the bipartisan northern border caucus. — Border disputes: Many Canadians are aware of Roxham Road, the unofficial crossing in Quebec that emerged during the Trump years and is now a magnet for irregular crossers from the south. Budlong and the lawmakers are concerned with traffic headed in the opposite direction. U.S. Customs and Border Control recently shared a release that pegged irregular crossers in January at 344 — more than in the previous 12 Januaries combined. They said it was an 846 percent increase, which caught the attention of Fox News and others. — What do they want: The nascent Republican caucus have written to Homeland Security secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS demanding a "full account" of how he plans to "mitigate the flow" of irregular crossers and drugs across the border. — Key comparison: The RCMP encountered 39,171 asylum seekers at Roxham Road in 2022, and a few hundred elsewhere along the boundary. — POTUS trip: The surge of irregular crossers into Canada at Roxham Road has turned up political pressure on Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU. The PM has committed to raising border security with President JOE BIDEN when he visits Canada later this month. Trudeau will push for an update of the binational Safe Third Country Agreement which mandates asylum seekers to make a claim in the first country they reach. The agreement doesn't apply to claims made between official ports of entry.
| | A message from Electricity Canada: Canada must invest in a clean 21st century economy that can create jobs and build more prosperous communities. That’s why it’s important that we electrify Canada now, to reduce carbon emissions and to fight the impacts of climate change. But we need to get building. We need a Canadian electricity strategy, bringing together governments, electricity providers and stakeholders, so we can build faster. Read our State of the Electricity Industry report to find out more. | | | | | TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS | |
— The prime minister is in Vancouver. He will deliver remarks at the “Gathering Wisdom for a Shared Journey” conference at 12:45 p.m. (9:45 a.m. PST) and, within the same hour, will meet with Vancouver Mayor KEN SIM at 1:30 p.m. (10:30 a.m. PST) for a coffee shop photo-op.
— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Charlottetown this morning to make an announcement with Prince Edward Island Premier DENNIS KING and other officials at 9 a.m., (10 a.m. AST). 1:30 p.m. Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY and deputy leader JONATHAN PEDNEAULT will hold a press conference in Winnipeg with JAMES BEDDOME, leader of the Manitoba Green Party. | | For your radar | | ‘DON’T TRY THIS AT HOME’ — Canada’s chief electoral officer STÉPHANE PERRAULT will be first up this morning when the House committee on procedure reconvenes to investigate foreign election interference. The hybrid gathering of the all-party committee met for six hours Wednesday, talking circles into the evening and helping to make the case for a public inquiry. “National security discussions should come with a warning label — don’t try this at home,” the Star’s SUSAN DELACOURT wrote at day’s end. “Or more accurately, don’t try this in the House.” The committee hearing comes amid a stream of leaks published by Global News and the Globe and Mail about alleged Chinese attempts to support mostly Liberal candidates and defeat Conservatives perceived to be unfriendly to Beijing. Writes Post columnist JOHN IVISON: “If China’s goal when it interfered in the last general election was to reduce public trust in Canadian democracy, increase polarization and weaken confidence in our political leaders, Beijing must be absolutely bloody delighted with the results.” — In the hotseat: National Security and Intelligence Advisor JODY THOMAS told the committee: “It is very important to reassure Canadians that the last two federal elections were fair and legitimate.” She warned MPs that it will be hard for lawmakers who lack security clearances to discuss classified information. She said the national security and intelligence committee of parliamentarians (NSICOP) would be better suited to conduct a probe. — Notable quotable: Public Safety Deputy Minister SHAWN TUPPER confirmed Wednesday that the RCMP isn’t investigating any of the recent media leaks about allegations of foreign interference in the last election. The Star's STEPHANIE LEVITZ has more on this part of the story. — Overhead in the room: Witness ALIA TAYYEB, signals intelligence deputy chief at the Communications Security Establishment, greeting Conservative committee member LUC BERTHOLD after the cameras shut off, with a “C’est très gentil, merci.” — On today’s witness list: CSIS director DAVID VIGNEAULT, CSE chief CAROLINE XAVIER, RCMP deputy commissioner MICHAEL DUHEME and commissioner of Canada elections CAROLINE SIMARD. | | | | A message from Electricity Canada:   | | |
HOW CANADIANS SEE IT — You may have noted yesterday’s findings from the Angus Reid Institute that found two thirds of Canadians believe China attempted to interfere in the 2019 and 2021 elections. More than half of Canadians think this attempted interference represents a serious threat to democracy, the pollster reported.
More worryingly, the survey found that 42 percent of past Conservative voters — and nearly one quarter of all respondents — believe the 2021 election was “stolen” due to Chinese interference. In reality, there has been no suggestion the alleged interference was enough to sway more than a handful of seats. Those results are a far cry from what was reported in a survey of voter experience conducted for Elections Canada during and after the 2021 election. — According to that survey: During the election campaign, half of voters thought there could be a moderate impact, or worse, on the election outcome from foreign interference. But after the fact, only four percent of voters thought foreign interference had a major impact on the outcome of the election, and 10 percent said it had a moderate impact. Only one quarter of voters thought foreign interference had been a problem at all. — ‘Widespread trust’: The survey, conducted by Phoenix Strategic Perspectives, found “widespread trust in the accuracy of the election results in respondents' respective ridings.” Ninety-one percent of voters had at least some level of trust in the accuracy of the results, and 72 percent said their level of trust was “very high.” That was up from 61 percent in 2019 and 65 percent in 2015. Moreover, 70 percent of respondents “said they were at least somewhat satisfied with the way democracy works in Canada,” the report found.
| | FROM THE DESK OF 338CANADA | |
A QUESTION FOR NEXT WEEK — Will the national conversation about Chinese foreign interference in Canadian elections nudge federal polls that haven’t budged much since the last election?
Here’s POLITICO contributor PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER with the polling context: — The context: Liberals and Conservatives took turns making headlines for the wrong reasons last week. Polls show both parties within reach of their 2021 results in voting intentions. During the past month, polls from top-rated firms Ipsos, Léger, and Abacus Data have measured Conservative support ranging from 33 to 37 percent, and LPC support from 29 to 33 percent. While individual polls paint diverging pictures of the political landscape, the rolling average of polls has not moved much beyond mere statistical fluctuations. As for the NDP? All three polling firms peg its national support at 18 percent.
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Tara Gnewikow, POLITICO | — What to watch: Movement of only a few points could produce wildly different outcomes. Ipsos numbers would most likely translate into a clear minority win for the Liberals. Abacus would put the Conservatives firmly in the driver's seat, within reach of a majority government. Léger’s number produce a near-tie in the seat count, with neither party capable of reaching the 170-seat threshold without the support of the Bloc. — Changes brewing? These surveys predate three Conservative MPs meeting a far-right European politician, and a deluge of stories about attempted Chinese foreign interference in Canadian elections. As always, stay tuned to 338Canada's latest projections. | | MEDIA ROOM | |
— Hot off the presses from the BUSINESS COUNCIL OF CANADA this morning: Innovate, compete and win: A roadmap for Canada's energy transition.
— Top of POLITICO this hour: Trump is poised for a CPAC love fest or face plant. There is no in between. — “I don’t know how to say this gently, Ottawa, but you’re looking rough,” HOWARD ANGLIN writes on the Hub. His plan for revitalization: Bulldoze and begin again. — RAISA PATEL was on the This Matters pod to discuss why Google is conducting secret tests to filter news results in Canada. — We’re late to this, but happy to discover: Front Burner Transcripts. — J.P. TASKER chronicles the potential crumbling of a pillar in the federal made-in-Canada Covid vaccine strategy. Novavax, which has an approved shot the National Research Council plans to manufacture itself, could go under. — JESSICA SMITH CROSS and CHARLIE PINKERTON are guests on this week’s Herle Burly pod — taking questions on journalism and conflict of interest. | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Birthdays: HBD to former Ontario cabinet minister ROD PHIILLIPS. Senators ROSE-MAY POIRIER and YUEN PAU WOO also celebrate. Send Playbookers tips to ottawaplaybook@politico.com . Spotted: A second Liberal staffer nabbing a $300 gift certificate for Athletic Propulsion Labs Shoes at a January taping of the Kelly Clarkson Show in Los Angeles. RILEY LANGE, the PMO's lead coordinator of digital and creative content, joined BILL BLAIR adviser PAVAN SAPRA in disclosing the crowd prize to the ethics commissioner. JONATHAN WILKINSON chief of staff CLAIRE SEABORN, teaching energy policy and net-zero transition at the Munk School. Movers and shakers: The Hub's SEAN SPEER, launching the Hunter Prize for Public Policy. The C$25,000 prize "aims to shake up Canadian policymaking by marshaling fresh ideas, energy, and voices to take on a clearly-defined 'wicked problem.' " Judges are ROBERT ASSELIN, ADAM KASSAM, AMANDA LANG, KAREN RESTOULE and TREVOR TOMBE. Media mentions: LEILA EL SHENNAWY started as associate editor at Reader's Digest … Applications are open for the 2023 EU-Canada Young Journalist Fellowship. | | A message from Electricity Canada: Electricity can minimize the impacts of climate change. Canada’s electricity grid is 84% non-emitting. We need to get closer to 100%, and still ensure that the grid is reliable and affordable. This is a big job, but we can do it. We need to bring together federal and provincial governments, electricity providers, consumers, other stakeholders and Canada’s Indigenous Peoples to work together to make it happen. A clean energy future is waiting. We just need to start building it. Read our State of the Electricity Industry report to find out more. | | | | | PROZONE | |
If you’re a , don’t miss MPs grill Trudeau’s security adviser — our latest policy newsletter from MAURA FORREST.
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U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai, Jan. 6, 2023. | Susan Walsh/AP Photo | In other Pro headlines: — Tai says free trade deals could return. — Cindy McCain tapped as head of World Food Program. — Near-collisions spark new worries for air travel. — China Select Committee hearing highlights partisan divide on Beijing-countering strategy. — FDA advisers endorse Pfizer's RSV vaccine candidate for older adults. | | On the Hill | |
The House returns on March 6. The Senate sits again March 7.
→ Find the latest House committees here → Keep track of Senate committees here 10 a.m. The House procedure and House affairs committee will meet. | | Talk of the town | | | 
| BRAGGING RIGHTS — The whole back room of the Métropolitain was filled to the brim Wednesday evening for a special edition of POLITICO Canada’s trivia night co-presented by the U.S. Embassy — and featuring U.S. Ambassador DAVID COHEN. The three-hour event marked the launch of Ottawa's Unofficial Month of Biden. Eighteen teams competed for Canada-U.S. supremacy. | 
Winners: The Business Council on National Issues | Zi-Ann Lum, POLITICO | — Round of applause: Cohen crafted and presented a round of declassified questions to feed the trivia crowd. The top envoy also handed out a special cache of Very Rare challenge coins as the night’s top prizes. The winner? The Business Council of Canada, which reprised its OG moniker: BUSINESS COUNCIL ON NATIONAL ISSUES. After six rounds, the BCC crew and the CPAC BRAINIACS were knotted at 25 out of a possible 30 points. Which meant an all-important tie-breaking question broke the deadlock. — A crowd-pleaser: The Met Set roared at the question: What is the length, in feet, of the Canada-U.S. border? Find the answer here. The CUSMApolitain: Our drink of the night inspired by Electricity Canada's team, Small People of Confederation. | 
Our signature cocktail. | The Met | — In case you missed it: We’ve created a play-at-home edition of Playbook Trivia March 2023. Follow the link to all the questions we asked last night. Test yourself, your colleagues and your geekiest friends and family. | | TRIVIA | |
Wednesday’s answer: FRANKLIN D. ROOSEVELT spent his summers on New Brunswick’s Campobello Island.
Props to ADRIAN LEE, ELIZABETH TACKABERRY, GORDON PHANEUF, CHRIS MCCLUSKEY, ALLAN FABRYKANT, ALYSON FAIR, ROSS LECLAIR, KATELIN CUMMINGS, KEVIN BOSCH, MAUREEN MACGILLIVRAY, NANCI WAUGH, LAURA JARVIS, GORDON RANDALL, NARESH RAGHUBEER, GARY ALLEN, ROB LEFORTE, MARK AGNEW, JOHN DILLON, SARAH ANDREWS, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, JOHN ECKER, DOUG RICE, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, DAN MCCARTHY, ANDREW SVENDE, JOANNA PLATER, RICHARD REMILLARD, GREGORY THOMAS, MORGAN LARHANT, HÉLÈNE CHEVALIER, JOE MACDONALD and OLIVIER CULLEN. Today’s question: What U.S. envoy did the New York Times nickname, “the ambassador who never left”? Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com Playbook wouldn’t happen: Without Luiza Ch. Savage and Sue Allan. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |  |
