Blindspots and collateral damage

From: POLITICO Ottawa Playbook - Friday Mar 03,2023 11:11 am
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Ottawa Playbook

By Zi-Ann Lum and Nick Taylor-Vaisey

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Welcome to Ottawa Playbook. I’m your host, Zi-Ann Lum, with Nick Taylor-Vaisey. CSIS is looking for the source of its "unlawful" leaks. We’re hearing whispers about the Cabinet members likely to be part of President JOE BIDEN's Ottawa entourage. Plus, URSULA VON DER LEYEN is making the best of her rain checked visit to Canada.

DRIVING THE DAY


KNOWLEDGE GAPS If there’s a common thread to pull from the bloodsport of federal politics these past two weeks, it’s that the state of intelligence gathering in Canada is in need of repair.

— Rewind the tape: Two weeks ago, Justice PAUL ROULEAU delivered his inquiry report on the government's decision to use extraordinary emergency powers to dispel the Freedom Convoy.

Rouleau reluctantly agreed Ottawa met a high threshold when it invoked unprecedented measures during a chaotic situation.

While Rouleau determined there was a threat, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) advised Trudeau otherwise. “While CSIS’s input was, of course, an important consideration for Cabinet, it was not, and should not have been, determinative,” wrote Rouleau.

His inquiry report noted “a gap” in legislation that limited the federal government’s ability to keep tabs on online activities related to the convoy. “This gap hampered its ability to anticipate the convoy and understand and gauge the situation as events unfolded,” Rouleau wrote.

— Another refresh: On the day of the Rouleau decision, the Globe and Mail’s BOB FIFE and STEVEN CHASE rained on the PMO vindication parade with a front-page story about Beijing’s alleged foreign interference in elections.

Global News’ SAM COOPER followed up a week later with a story with unnamed sources citing CSIS intel that alleged Liberal MP HAN DONG to be the beneficiary of Beijing-backed electoral tactics.

— One more: MORRIS ROSENBERG’s report this week recommended the government lower the threshold at which foreign interference activity would merit a public alert.

— Where are we now: “This is not about Chinese Canadians who are first and foremost the victims of Beijing’s interference activities,” Conservative MP MICHAEL COOPER said Wednesday at a parliamentary committee probing the leaks.

“This scandal is about what the prime minister knows about this interference, when he first learned about it, and what he did about it or failed to do about it.”

— Reality check: But, of course, the issue is about Chinese Canadians — the ones who have to live with the impacts of partisan warmongering in between elections.

All politicians eventually leave office.

— Noted Thursday: Opposition MPs passed an NDP motion in committee to call on the government to launch a national public inquiry into alleged foreign interference, but not limited to elections. The motion says the commissioner would be chosen by all parties.

— Missing in action: Thoughtful introspection and discussion about the systemic barriers and legislative gaps that may make diaspora communities susceptible to foreign interference tactics.

— Talking heads: Former Conservative national campaign manager FRED DELOREY shared his skepticism about a national inquiry with Power & PoliticsDAVID COCHRANE.

“I’m not saying a public inquiry is out of the question,” DeLorey said. “I just have issues with the thought of a major national security issue being dealt with in this forum. I just don’t know what we’re gonna get out of that.”

— Meanwhile at CSIS: Spy agency director DAVID VIGNEAULT confirmed to MPs that an internal hunt is underway to scout the source of the media leaks.

— What’s ahead: There’s political pressure on Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU to be clear on whether he endorses or rejects the idea of an inquiry, be it in a national public forum or behind the closed doors of the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians.

Those inquiry questions are bound to find him during a media availability in Winnipeg today.

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For your radar

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - MARCH 1: U.S. President Joe Biden speaks during the annual House Democrats Issues Conference at the Hyatt Regency Hotel March 1, 2023 in Baltimore, Maryland. Biden spoke on a range of issues, including bipartisan legislation passed in the first two years of his presidency.

U.S. President Joe Biden in Baltimore, March 1. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images

BIDES OF MARCH — Playbook has yet to confirm March 23 as the crescendo of Ottawa's Unofficial Month of Biden, but it's the only date people are talking about.

We're also hearing some fairly precise speculation about the agenda for President JOE BIDEN's northern jaunt.

— Key themes: A well-connected source tells Playbook that four members of Biden's Cabinet may join him in Ottawa. The themes are still being sorted, but the Americans have preferences:

Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN would focus on geopolitical tensions. Secretary of Defense LLOYD AUSTIN would prioritize defense modernization. Secretary of Commerce GINA RAIMONDO would emphasize supply chains. Secretary of Energy JENNIFER GRANHOLM would key in on energy security.

— Details, details: The source speculated POTUS's entourage would arrive the evening of March 22 and depart the morning of the 24th. A parliamentary address is on the table, though not confirmed. The Canadian side is pitching a “large dinner event,” and officials are exploring a “potential site visit” for — brace yourself for bilat jargon — “a deliverable.”

— TBC: Well, everything, including themes and deliverables. Stay tuned.

— For the record: The same source bet that CHRYSTIA FREELAND's budget will land the week after Biden's time in the capital: March 27–31. Place your bets now.

— Also for the record: March 22-24 happen to be the exact dates for the Canada Strong and Free Network conference (formerly known as the Manning Conference) happening at the Westin Hotel. NIGEL WRIGHT is a silver sponsor of the event alongside Telus and The Canadian Real Estate Association. Former Prime Minister STEPHEN HARPER is scheduled to speak on opening night.

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HUSTLE IN THE HAMMER — Today’s the opening of the Ontario Liberals’ annual general meeting, a.k.a. a much-anticipated weekend of debate about how the party will reform its process for picking a new leader.

Count on MP NATE ERSKINE-SMITH to be in the mix at the Hamilton Convention Centre. The outspoken Liberal MP hasn’t been coy about his interest in a potential provincial leadership bid (neither has caucus colleague YASIR NAQVI) — and he wants to see some top-level changes.

After dumping on the “dishonest and incompetent populism” at Queen’s Park in a new video, Erskine-Smith pitched a proposal to ditch the party’s delegated leadership convention for a “one member, one vote” weighted system.

The party has to sort out its leadership process before finalizing deadlines and dates to mark the official start of campaigns. The embattled party is, however, expected to announce fresh blood on Sunday in the form of a new executive council and president.

MORE EUROPEANS ARE COMING — An address by URSULA VON DER LEYEN is on next week’s schedule when MPs return to the House of Commons after a two-week recess.

— Why now: The European Commission president, dubbed by Forbes as “the world’s most powerful woman,” was originally slated to visit Canada in September but her late summer plans were postponed after the queen’s death.

— What’s the plan: Von der Leyen is due to arrive in Ottawa Monday evening.

An itinerary provided by her office showed a packed Tuesday with a media availability and tour of a cleantech firm with the prime minister in Kingston, Ontario before returning to the capital to address Parliament.

Von der Leyen’s day wraps at a reception with business leaders, hosted by the prime minister. Support for Ukraine, critical minerals and transatlantic trade are top agenda items.

Governor General MARY SIMON will be among the last to see Von der Leyen on Wednesday before the European leader flies to Washington to meet with the president.

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS


— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Winnipeg for a 10:45 a.m. (9:45 a.m. MST) meeting with Manitoba Premier HEATHER STEFANSON. A joint media availability is also on the schedule, after a joint child care announcement for 11:15 a.m. (10:15 MST). Expect questions about foreign interference.

— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Ottawa with no public events on her itinerary.

9 a.m. The parliamentary budget officer will publish a new report titled “The Government’s Expenditure Plan and Main Estimates for 2023-24.”

10 a.m. Bloc Québécois YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET is in the Magdalen Islands and will hold a media availability in Cap-aux-Meules, Quebec at the Château Madelinot’s “salle inspiration.”

6:30 p.m. Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE swings by southern Ontario to spend his Friday night meeting and greeting people in London.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH has two events, no media allowed at either: a 2 p.m. (11 a.m. PST) meeting with Burnaby Mayor MIKE HURLEY and a 3:30 p.m. (12:30 p.m. PST) tour of the BC Insulators Training Centre with MP BONITA ZARRILLO.

 

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WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN


What’s up: Value of intelligence experts to break down the intricacies of foreign interference in Canada.

What’s down: Visibility of Chinese-Canadian experts on the endless foreign interference-themed panels.

HALLWAY CONVERSATION


T-MINUS THREE MONTHS TO E-DAY — How prepared are the biggest electoral machines in Alberta? With a provincial election on the way, we asked around:

DAVE COURNOYER, a plugged-in writer and podcaster in Edmonton: 

The engines are revving and the United Conservative Party and NDP are ready to take off. Both parties nearly have a full slate of candidates and the campaigns have started to take shape.

Premier DANIELLE SMITH is benefiting from a provincial budget fueled by high oil prices. She has turned on the charm and largely stopped talking about the more controversial parts of her leadership campaign (that is, Covid-19 vaccinations and the Sovereignty Act). Importing professional campaigners from Ontario like STEVE OUTHOUSE and PIERÇON KNEZIC appears to have helped inject some much needed pre-election message discipline into the Smith campaign.

RACHEL NOTLEY announced the NDP are setting up their campaign HQ in Calgary, which is where the party sees its path to winning enough seats to form government. Cowtown isn’t natural NDP territory so Notley has been spending almost every spare moment campaigning in the city. The NDP has also nominated a fairly centrist slate of candidates in a bid to woo Calgary voters.

The NDP had a big fundraising edge over the UCP when JASON KENNEY was still premier but Smith pumped some gas in her party’s fundraising machine in the final months of 2022. Both parties raised more than C$7 million last year. With the UCP getting the support of business-backed PACs, I expect both parties will be on relatively equal financial footing going into the next three months.

ESMAHAN RAZAVI is a principal at Champion Communications. She is also PR and NDP campaign manager in Calgary-Glenmore:

Polls show a tight race. Now more than ever, every single vote matters. Where they come from matters more.

Calgary is the battleground, and both parties know that.

With 60 days to go before the writ period, the NDP has nominated 74 out of 87 candidates, while the UCP trail behind at 67. A day is a lifetime in politics and with almost exactly two months left before an election call, a lot can change. It’s on the NDP to continue its momentum. The UCP needs to find some if they’re playing to win.

MELISSA CAOUETTE, principal at MC Consulting and founder of Pocket Lobbyist:

The 2023 provincial election in Alberta is shaping up to be a battle of personalities, rather than policy.

While both the UCP and NDP differ in approaches to the issues Albertans care most about — healthcare, education and affordability — both campaign machines are focused on similar areas. It leaves leadership style as one of the main differentiating factors between the two.

The NDP has a slight edge over the UCP when it comes to nominated candidates and election preparedness given the Conservatives just went through a leadership race. In the battleground of Calgary, I anticipate businesses and families might narrowly prefer the devil they know in the UCP.

Budget 2023 was not a traditional high-spend election budget, and did not rock the boat.

Modest broad-based program spending increases with a strong commitment to fiscal prudence suggests the UCP intend to win voters by demonstrating stability and economic strength, rather than by buying Albertans' votes.

In related reading: From DON BRAID of the Herald — Small gains in Calgary won't be enough for the NDP. Notley has to flip the whole city.

MEDIA ROOM


— Top read on POLITICO: Trump’s loosening grip on GOP defines early 2024 campaign.

— CNBC’s MELISSA REPKO reports retailer Nordstrom is closing its 13 stores in Canada by late June.

— The Walrus’ ROB CSERNYIK explores what’s going on at Starbucks to understand the wave of unionization sweeping the service industry.

— On the latest This Matters pod, TONDA MACCHARLES explains what we know so far about foreign interference in Canadian elections.

In case you missed it from KONRAD YAKABUSKI: Could CHRYSTIA FREELAND be heading to NATO after all?

PROZONE


For POLITICO Pro s, here’s our latest policy newsletter from MAURA FORREST, NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY and ZI-ANN LUM: Canada's spymaster: 'They are listening.'

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen waves while walking.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen arrives for a press conference in Windsor, England, Monday, Feb. 27, 2023. | Kin Cheung/AP Photo


In other news for Pro readers:

Von der Leyen to visit Ottawa and Washington.

Concerns raised about new 'menthol-like' cigarettes.

Feds step up rail inspections in wake of Ohio derailment.

Ice age fossils slow massive power line for renewable energy.

Private sector spent more than ever on lobbying in U.S. last year.

PLAYBOOKERS


Birthdays: Hip-hip happy birthday to ex-MP BOB BENZEN, economist JIM STANFORD.  

Celebrating Saturday: Former MPs SVEND ROBINSON, PATRICK BOYER and TED HSU, former premier NELLIE COURNOYEA. Celebrating Sunday: Former MP PENNY PRIDDY. 

Send birthdays to ottawaplaybook@politico.com.

Spotted: Meeting at Zoe's: Pathways Alliance VP MARK CAMERON and PMO’s BEN CHIN … Defense Minister ANITA ANAND giving a shout out to her sister Dr. SONIA ANAND, recipient of the YWCA Hamilton’s Women of Distinction Award … Just a night out in Toronto with TYLER MEREDITH, KEN BOESSENKOOL and AWANISH SINHA.

Movers and shakers: PHILIPPE RODRIGUEZ making the jump from the Center for International Digital Policy to a role managing Canadian G-7 engagement.

Media mentions: CONNOR GRAREL is rejoining The Walrus as its 2023 Justice Fund Writer in Residence … Fraudsters using CTV News’ TOM YUN’s byline to legitimize fake stories endorsing crypto scams.

Tough week at Global News: RACHEL GILMORE, TERESA WRIGHT, HEIDI LEE and IRELYNE LAVERY confirmed they're among those impacted by layoffs this week.

A message from Electricity Canada:

Electricity can minimize the impacts of climate change. Canada’s electricity grid is 84% non-emitting. We need to get closer to 100%, and still ensure that the grid is reliable and affordable. This is a big job, but we can do it. We need to bring together federal and provincial governments, electricity providers, consumers, other stakeholders and Canada’s Indigenous Peoples to work together to make it happen. A clean energy future is waiting. We just need to start building it. Read our State of the Electricity Industry report to find out more.

 
On the Hill


Find upcoming House committees here

Keep track of Senate committees here

TRIVIA


Thursday’s answer: It’s BRUCE HEYMAN who earned the short bio as “the ambassador who never left” by the New York Times.

Props to BRAM ABRAMSON, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, SHERRY WASILOW, MARC LEBLANC, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, KEVIN BOSCH, BOOTS TAYLOR-VAISEY and STEVE KAROL.

Today’s question: Who boasted in a tweet, “I spoke almost 100,000 words over four days.”

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Playbook wouldn’t happen: Without Luiza Ch. Savage and Sue Allan.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com

 

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Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey

Sue Allan @susan_allan

Maura Forrest @MauraForrest

Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum

POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa

 

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