| BATTLEGROUND CALGARY — A six-vote margin propelled ANAM KAZIM to victory in Alberta's 2015 election. The razor-thin win might've seemed like a relative landslide; the rookie NDP MLA for Calgary-Glenmore had been tied with her PC opponent after the unofficial count on election night. JASON KENNEY's United Conservatives demolished the New Democrats in the suburban seat in southwest Calgary four years later. Now, that riding could make all the difference. — This is where the win is: POLITICO contributor PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER set out the provincial state of play in a Wednesday column. DANIELLE SMITH is still the favorite in a tight provincial race, he wrote, but Calgary will make all the difference. Every single political analyst knows it. CBC published on Tuesday a talker of a survey from respected pollster JANET BROWN that zeroed in on Calgary. Brown projects the NDP winning in as many as 18 ridings in the city, including four in the more affluent southwestern quadrant. Fournier maintains a snake chart that pinpoints the riding projected to put the winning party over the top. It's a volatile visualization as the winds shift in Alberta's biggest city, but Calgary-Glenmore is one of the closest races. If the NDP wins there, RACHEL NOTLEY will likely retake the premier's office. If the party comes up short, the UCP led by Smith will probably be re-elected. — Recent history: Kazim's 2015 triumph benefited from a divided right. She came up the middle as the Progressive Conservative and Wildrose vote cannibalized. A united right coalesced around WHITNEY ISSIK, now the environment minister. An NDP win next month would mean thousands of UCP voters flipped or stayed home. — On the ground: Playbook got on the horn with ESMAHAN RAZAVI, the campaign manager for NDP candidate NAGWAN AL-GUNEID in Calgary-Glenmore. The campaign's door-knockers are hearing about issues like health care, said Razavi. But she also described the election as a referendum on Smith. Is al-Guneid aiming to win back 2015 voters who might've sided with Kenney in 2019? Yes, Razavi said. "We're also finding people who didn't even vote for us in 2015, who are voting for us now. Which I think is even more interesting." The best ground game will win, said Razavi. She thinks she's seeing an enthusiasm gap — more motivated supporters than the UCP is attracting. That is, of course, anecdotal. — A second opinion: IAN BRODIE knows something about winning elections. The University of Calgary professor and former chief of staff to STEPHEN HARPER has watched politics for decades from his perch in the city. If it's close in the southwest quadrant of the city, Brodie wrote to us, that's in part due to Notley's rehabilitation after a bruising four years in power. "Rachel Notley has repaired her public image and is reassuring voters she won’t hike taxes and provoke the devastating job losses these ridings suffered after she won in 2015," writes Brodie. "She has better known candidates this time, and she has courted thousands of public sector workers in southwest Calgary who have a beef with UCP’s effort to rein in Alberta’s government salaries." — Turnout matters: Brodie echoed Razavi's emphasis on getting out the vote. "The NDP’s 2015 victory was helped by extraordinarily low voter turnout in southwest Calgary," he said. "If the UCP can polarize its voters against the prospect of another NDP government, enough may turn out to the polls to stave off defeat." What are you seeing in Alberta? Drop us a line here.
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