Back to work

From: POLITICO Ottawa Playbook - Monday May 01,2023 10:01 am

May 01, 2023

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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. I’m your host, Maura Forrest. The federal public service strike is over — well, mostly. Also today, Alberta's provincial election campaign (officially) gets underway. And Canadians’ attitudes to vaccines have changed since the pandemic. We’ll tell you how.

Your Playbook host is on leave as of today, awaiting a new arrival. POLITICO Canada is delighted to announce KYLE DUGGAN will join the team, starting Tuesday.

THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING

BACK TO WORK — The union's official announcement landed at 1:28 a.m. The Public Service Alliance of Canada has reached a tentative agreement with the federal government that will see 120,000 public servants back on the job today, following a strike that lasted nearly two weeks.

According to the union, the contract includes a 12 percent wage increase over four years. PSAC had previously demanded 13.5 percent over three years, while the government had offered nine percent. The Treasury Board announced Saturday it had "enhanced" its offer, but didn't provide details. The union says it negotiated a fourth year in the agreement "that protects workers from inflation."

PSAC says it also obtained new language about remote work, which was another major sticking point. The union says managers will have to negotiate remote work requests individually, not by group, and will have to provide written responses to requests.

The union had wanted the right to remote work to be enshrined in the collective agreement, but Treasury Board President MONA FORTIER said decisions around telework are a management right.

— For more detail: Here's the Ottawa Citizen's CATHERINE MORRISON with a closer look at the tentative deal.

— Left out: Roughly 35,000 Canada Revenue Agency employees are still on strike today. The union says they're still fighting for higher wages and the right to remote work. Revenue agency workers have asked for a 22.5 percent pay hike over three years.

— What's next: PSAC says members will soon be invited to participate in online ratification votes.

— Meanwhile: The nearly two-week-long strike means “thousands of people are in immigration limbo amid canceled hearings and stalled applications,” ANNA MEHLER PAPERNY reports for Reuters.

— Related reading: Most non-essential public servants showed up on picket lines, despite earlier reporting that showed only a third of PSAC members cast a ballot in the strike vote, MARK RAMZY reports for the National Post.

But KATHRYN MAY’s latest edition of the Functionary newsletter throws a wrench in that tidy narrative. “With hybrid work, public servants can dodge being called a scab by doing their picket duty at the office in the morning, head home, check in with their managers and go to work,” she reports.

— Picket predictions: News about movement in the negotiations late last week clearly shifted the mood on the public service subreddit, where there was an ongoing tournament to predict when the work stoppage would end. For several days last week, a majority of voters were betting on the strike lasting into this week.

But on Saturday, 26 percent of redditors guessed the strike would end over the weekend, compared to 29 percent who said it would last till the end of the week.

Hillary Clinton speaks to the reporters at United Nations headquarters.

Former secretary of state Hillary Clinton will speak Friday at the Liberal national convention in Ottawa. | Seth Wenig/AP Photos

COME TOGETHER — On Thursday, Liberals from across the country will descend on Ottawa for a three-day national convention to debate policy, elect a new president and hear from Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU about why he’s still the right guy for the job after a decade as Liberal leader.

The big headline last week, of course, was that HILLARY CLINTON will be at the Shaw Centre on Friday for an on-stage conversation with Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND. But she won’t be the only Democrat in town. The list of guest speakers includes several Democrats with expertise in online fundraising, including PATRICK FRANK, GARIMA VERMA, MICHAEL WHITNEY and RYAN THOMPSON.

Trudeau will address party faithful on Thursday evening. Former prime minister JEAN CHRÉTIEN will be a keynote speaker on Friday.

— New directions: Party members will also debate and vote on 36 policy resolutions at the convention — though there’s no requirement for the government to act on those that pass. This year’s list includes proposals for “transitional professional development” programs for oil and gas workers, and for a fund to pay for the closure of major commercial streets to car traffic in Canadian cities.

One resolution would have the government dispose of 30 percent of federal lands and property that could be used for affordable housing. Another would have the government push for a “free movement area” between Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand. There’s also a resolution from the party’s Quebec wing calling for “a clear, costed proposal for a return to balanced budgets.”

There are also proposals to lower the voting age to 17, make voting mandatory and establish a “citizens’ assembly on electoral reform to continue the work started in 2014.” (You may recall that work was then halted by a certain JUSTIN TRUDEAU in 2017.) The CBC’s AARON WHERRY has more on those resolutions here.

— Also on the agenda: The Liberals will hold elections for the party’s national board and executives of four national commissions. SACHIT MEHRA and MIRA AHMAD are vying to replace SUZANNE COWAN as party president.

— Related reading: MARK CARNEY will attend the convention — though he won’t be speaking — and told CTV’s VASSY KAPELOS he believes the party is “on the right track.”

Britain’s King Charles III waves.

Britain’s King Charles III waves as he arrives for a visit to the new European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in London, on March 23, 2023. | Pool photo by Kirsty Wigglesworth

I’M JUST A POOR BOY, NOBODY LOVES ME — Trudeau will duck out early from the Liberal convention to attend KING CHARLES’ coronation at Westminster Abbey in London on Saturday. It’s probably a safe bet that his hotel room will cost less than C$6,000 per night, and that he won’t bust out any QUEEN renditions in hotel lobbies. Still, we can dream.

A celebration of the coronation will take place Saturday on Parliament Hill, with speeches, music and a 21-gun salute. The Peace Tower and other federal buildings will be illuminated in emerald green through the weekend.

If that doesn’t sound like much, it’s worth noting that a recent poll from the Angus Reid Institute found three in five respondents opposed even recognizing Charles as King. But Trudeau, when asked last week about declining support for the monarchy, gave his stock answer: Canadians have bigger fish to fry.

"There are obviously a number of people who feel that a different system would serve us better,” he said. “But what those people can't do is agree on what alternative would be better.”

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TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will attend Question Period at 2 p.m. He will also speak with Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY.

— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Ottawa for private meetings, and will attend Question Period at 2 p.m.

— Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET is in Quebec’s Saguenay—Lac-Saint-Jean region, and will hold a press conference in Jonquière at 11:30 a.m.

9 a.m. Mental Health and Addictions Minister CAROLYN BENNETT will be in Toronto to announce funding to support the mental health of 2SLGBTQI+ communities.

For your radar

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith speaks at an event.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith speaks at the Canada Strong and Free Network in Ottawa on Thursday, March 23, 2023. | Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press

TO THE POLLS — You could be forgiven for thinking Alberta’s election campaign has been underway for some time. In fact, it’s expected to officially kick off today. Albertans will go to the polls May 29 to either return Premier DANIELLE SMITH to office or to give NDP Leader RACHEL NOTLEY a second kick at the can.

Polls show Smith’s United Conservative Party and Notley’s NDP in a dead heat, though the smart money may still be on the UCP. 338Canada founder and POLITICO contributor PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER recently wrote that the election is Smith’s to lose because of all the seats Notley would need to flip in Calgary.

But it’s the two leaders who will make this campaign interesting, as much as the horse race. Both are household names across the country. Both have held the province’s top job. And both have baggage to overcome.

Smith’s push for provincial autonomy has been controversial, and she’s now facing an ethics investigation. Notley introduced an unpopular carbon tax when she was premier, and Smith paints her as a Trudeau ally every chance she gets.

— As the campaign kicks off, here’s some reading to get you caught up on what’s at stake:

For the National Post, TYLER DAWSON has this long-read on the “two faces of prairie populism.”
The Toronto Star’s KIERAN LEVITT paints the campaign as a “tale of two political comebacks.”
Meanwhile, the Globe and Mail’s CARRIE TAIT has this deep dive on how Take Back Alberta, a movement that capitalized on anger over Covid-19 restrictions, is gaining influence within the UCP.
And for the Line, JARED WESLEY and KEN BOESSENKOOL argue that Smith “is not a conservative.”

MEDIA ROOM

— The Toronto Star’s STEPHANIE LEVITZ and ROBERT BENZIE offer a fascinating inside look at the “deepening rift” between PIERRE POILIEVRE and DOUG FORD.

— U.S. Homeland Security Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS told the CBC’s ROSEMARY BARTON that the Biden administration has asked Ottawa to reimpose visa requirements for Mexican nationals to stem the flow of illegal crossings from Canada into the United States.

— The federal government has ended evacuation flights out of Sudan due to fighting near the airfield north of Khartoum, Defense Minister ANITA ANAND confirmed Sunday. Meanwhile, CBC reports that some Canadians who’ve left the country say Canada’s evacuation efforts were weak and disorganized.

— Public Safety Minister MARCO MENDICINO told Global’s MERCEDES STEPHENSON the government will introduce bail reform legislation this spring.

— If we’re lucky, AI will cause “only brief moments of isolated confusion in our political sphere,” COLIN HORGAN writes for the Walrus. “If we’re not, there’s a risk it could upend politics — and society — permanently.”

PAPER TRAIL

A nurse gives a Covid-19 vaccine to a patient.

Canadians' attitudes toward vaccination have shifted since the Covid-19 pandemic. | Helen H. Richardson/The Denver Post via AP

PANDEMIC LEGACY — If you want Canadians to get vaccinated, leave masks out of it. That’s one of the key messages from a public opinion survey conducted ahead of Health Canada’s latest flu vaccine campaign.

The survey is one of two government-commissioned reports, recently made public, that shed light on how the Covid-19 pandemic has changed attitudes toward vaccines.

Health Canada tested three “creative concepts” for its 2022 seasonal flu campaign, designed to encourage vulnerable people to get the annual flu shot. The results showed “many participants reacting strongly and negatively” to the third concept, which showed images of a mask and claimed it was more important than ever to get the flu shot now that fewer people are masking up.

“This concept elicited mixed and strong reactions, and it presents serious risks in terms of message confusion and dismissal,” reads the report, completed by Narrative Research Inc. for C$74,000.

Focus group members found the ad campaign was “bossy,” “demanding” and “guilting,” and some felt it was trying to shame people who’ve stopped wearing masks.

— Think of the children: A second survey found that parents’ attitudes toward vaccinating their children have changed since 2017, the last time a similar study was conducted. Just under 40 percent of respondents said they accept all recommended vaccines for their kids and have no concerns about them — that’s down from 48 percent six years ago.

Another 19 percent of parents said they have refused or delayed getting some vaccines for their kids, and three percent refuse all vaccines. Those two groups combined have nearly doubled from 12 percent in 2017 to 22 percent in 2022.

About one in five respondents said they’re more concerned about regular childhood vaccinations since the pandemic.

— Changing fears: Among parents with doubts about vaccines, about four in 10 cited concerns about side effects, and three in 10 worry about allergic reactions. Three in 10 said they worry vaccines haven’t been sufficiently tested — that figure has doubled since 2017.

On the other hand, only four percent are worried vaccines could cause autism, down from 10 percent in 2017.

The survey was conducted by EKOS Research Associates for C$113,000. A total of 1,228 people were surveyed. A randomly recruited sample of that size would carry a margin of error of 2.8 percent.

PROZONE

For POLITICO Pro s, our latest policy newsletter from ZI-ANN LUM: The ‘us + anyone else’ speech.

In other news for Pro s:

— Cheap oil vs. values: Trudeau sets the stakes.

— Canada and the U.S. to work together against ‘ghost guns.’

— House votes to rescind Biden’s solar tariff moratorium.

— California to phase out gas-powered truck and bus fleets to meet climate goals.

— Never mind that huge climate law — some greens are bashing Biden.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to senators MARY JANE MCCALLUM and PIERRE DALPHOND. Musician and broadcaster TOM POWER also celebrates today.

HBD + 1 to SCOTT REID.

Spotted: ERIN O’TOOLE, bringing the country together… against Toronto.

Convoy-esque vehicles, celebrating the reopening of Wellington Street in front of Parliament Hill.

NOBLE, the new royal horse presented Friday to KING CHARLES by RCMP interim commissioner MIKE DUHEME.

Movers and shakers: BEN CARR is the Liberal candidate for Winnipeg South Centre and will seek to fill the seat formerly occupied by his father, JIM CARR, who died in December.

Meanwhile, BRANDEN LESLIE has won the Conservative nomination for Portage—Lisgar, the seat vacated by former interim leader CANDICE BERGEN. The Conservatives have held the seat since the party’s creation in 2003.

And erstwhile Conservative leadership contender ROMAN BABER will seek the Conservative nomination in York Centre, currently held by Liberal MP YA’ARA SAKS, the Toronto Star’s STEPHANIE LEVITZ reports.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.

On the Hill

— Find the latest House committee meetings here.

— Keep track of Senate committees here.

11 a.m. The House fisheries and oceans committee will continue its study of pinnipeds.

11 a.m. The joint committee for the scrutiny of regulations meets to review statutory instruments.

11 a.m. The House status of women committee continues its study of human trafficking.

11 a.m. The House heritage committee meets to continue its study of safe sport in Canada.

11 a.m. Representatives of the Canadian Nuclear Association and the Canadian Chamber of Commerce are among the witnesses due at the House international trade committee.

3:30 p.m. Public Policy Forum testimonial award recipient HAROLD CALLA, executive chair of the First Nations Financial Management Board, will be at the House Indigenous and northern affairs committee’s meeting studying Bill C-45.

3:30 p.m. The House immigration committee meets to take Bill S-245 through clause-by-clause consideration.

3:30 p.m. The House veterans affairs committee will hear from three department witnesses from national defense in relation to its study probing the experience of women veterans.

3:30 p.m. The House industry committee continues its study of Bill C-34, which would amend the Investment Canada Act.

3:30 p.m. Bill C-290 is up for study at the House government operations committee.

4 p.m. Former Ottawa police chief PETER SLOLY will be at the Senate human rights committee to discuss anti-Black racism, sexism and systemic discrimination in the Canadian Human Rights Commission.

4 p.m. Disinformation and national security are up for study at the Senate national security committee.

5 p.m. The Senate official languages committee meets to study matters relating to minority-language health services.

— Behind closed doors: Auditor General KAREN HOGAN will be at the House public accounts committee to discuss her office’s report related to Covid-19 vaccines;

the House environment committee meets to review its report on fossil fuel subsidies, preceded by a meeting of its subcommittee on agenda and procedure to discuss committee business; the House justice committee reviews its extradition law reform report; the House agriculture committee meets to go over drafts of two upcoming reports; the special Canada-China committee meets to discuss a draft report.

TRIVIA

Friday’s answer: LESTER B. PEARSON was nicknamed “Herr Zig Zag” by the Swiss for his hockey skills while he studied at Oxford University in the 1920s.

Props to RYAN HAMILTON, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, JOSHUA ZANIN, NANCI WAUGH, DOUG RICE, GEORGE SCHOENHOFER, GORDON RANDALL and BOB GORDON.

Monday's question: What political party governed Alberta for the first 16 years after it became a province in 1905?

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com.

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