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A daily look inside Canadian politics and power. | | | | |  | | By Maura Forrest | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Maura | Follow Politico Canada Welcome to Ottawa Playbook. I’m your host, Maura Forrest, with Nick Taylor-Vaisey. Today, we bring you some internal documents that kinda sorta predicted how hard it would be to plant two billion trees. Public servants are placing bets on when the PSAC strike will end. And the blue check marks are gone — sort of. |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
Federal Liberal leader Justin Trudeau plants a tree with his son Hadrien (right) at the Frank Conservation Area in Plainfield, Ont. on Sunday, October 6, 2019. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn | Frank Gunn, The Canadian Press |
LIKE NAILING JELL-O — It turns out planting trees isn’t that easy to do.
It seems like only yesterday that Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU planted a maple sapling with his two sons during a campaign stop near Belleville, a plug for his 2019 election promise to plant two billion trees in a decade. Playbook returned to visit that tree during the 2021 campaign and reported that it was still going strong. But alas, the same cannot be said for the election promise. On Thursday, the federal environment watchdog released an audit euphemistically claiming Canada is “unlikely” to meet its 2 Billion Trees target “unless significant changes are made.” But the actual findings are a fair bit more damning than that. JERRY DEMARCO’s report calculated that all the agreements Ottawa had signed by October 2022 amounted to just 76.2 million trees to be planted by 2031. That’s 3.8 percent of two billion. — What’s the hold-up? One of the big problems DeMarco flagged is that the federal government needs the provinces and territories to get on board, and at the time of the audit, Ottawa hadn’t managed to sign long-term funding agreements with any of them. This is a “major program risk,” DeMarco wrote, since the government is counting on the provinces and territories to plant 1.34 billion of the two billion trees. We’ll let you do the math. Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON was quick to point out Thursday that he has since signed agreements with six provinces and territories. The most recent of those, with British Columbia, was announced earlier this week, and it will add another 37 million trees to the tally. But that’s only a two-year arrangement. Wilkinson’s office didn’t respond to Playbook’s request for more information about the five other funding deals. The government says it has agreements “signed and under negotiation” for more than 260 million trees overall — not just with provinces. — Early warning: As it turns out, Ottawa knew at least as far back as 2021, the year the program was launched, that it was risky to rely so heavily on provinces. A little while ago, Playbook got its hands on internal documents from Natural Resources Canada pointing out that the “level of [provincial and territorial] ambition and willingness to co-deliver will vary” and the program “may have to adjust [its] delivery model across jurisdictions.” One document observes that legal reviews of multiyear proposals could delay agreements with the provinces. Elsewhere, a table from December 2021 documenting the program’s progress notes that provincial Treasury Board processes to match federal funding could cause further delays. The documents were obtained through an access-to-information request. Another internal document, which lists “principal risks and challenges” to the program, notes that “the success of the 2BT program hinges on cost-sharing partnerships, particularly with [provinces and territories] as most trees are expected to be planted on Crown lands under PT jurisdiction.” Later, the report observes that “with limited program delivery staff,” the reliance on partnerships increases “the risk of uncertainty for program outcomes.” — So here we are: Ottawa nearly hit its target of 30 million trees planted in 2021. We won’t know the final numbers for 2022 until this summer, but DeMarco estimated it won’t be more than 16.5 million. The government had planned for 60 million. Wilkinson still says he’s “fully committed to getting it done.” But it is perhaps telling that the government’s 2 Billion Trees website says this right near the top: “If you are a provincial or territorial government looking to be involved, contact the 2BT program team.” It links to this email address: 2btrees-2garbres@nrcan-rncan.gc.ca. So, hey — if you happen to know any provinces or territories, maybe do Ottawa a solid and pass along the message. Did someone forward Ottawa Playbook your way? Click here to sign up for your own edition. It’s free! | | TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS | |
— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will join Ontario Premier DOUG FORD and Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE in St. Thomas at 10:30 a.m. to celebrate Volkswagen’s plan to build its first North American EV battery plant in the city. A media availability will follow. At 2:30 p.m., the prime minister will hold a town hall with college kids in London.
— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Toronto for private meetings. — NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will be in Toronto to attend Eid celebrations. At 11 a.m., he will deliver remarks at the 2023 OPSEU convention. — Defense Minister ANITA ANAND and Chief of the Defense Staff Gen. WAYNE EYRE will visit the Ramstein Air Base in Germany to attend the 11th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. Over the weekend: — Agriculture Minister MARIE-CLAUDE BIBEAU will attend the G-7 agriculture ministers’ meeting in Japan on Saturday and Sunday. — German President FRANK-WALTER STEINMEIER will arrive in Canada on Sunday for a four-day visit, during which he will meet with Trudeau and travel to Ottawa, Vancouver and the Northwest Territories. | | | For your radar | | | 
Twitter announced plans to begin removing users' verified checkmarks from accounts starting April 1. Users could then obtain a "verified" checkmark by paying a monthly fee. | ilgmyzin/Unsplash.com |
FOR THE BIRDS — Well, the blue check marks are gone. For some of us, anyway. Twitter finally delivered yesterday on ELON MUSK’s promise to remove the verified checks from users who don’t pay for Twitter Blue. Much tweeting ensued.
Tweeters in the Hill bubble were quick to notice a common thread among many of the politicians who still had their blue check marks by day’s end — and who are presumably shelling out money for them. PIERRE POILIEVRE was the only one of the four major party leaders to still have that little blue check, and the Conservative Party was the only one of the four major parties. Several Conservative MPs — MELISSA LANTSMAN, MICHAEL CHONG, GARNETT GENUIS, MICHELLE REMPEL GARNER (who had this to say about her reasons) — had also retained the blue check. But many others — JASRAJ SINGH HALLAN, ANDREW SCHEER, MICHAEL BARRETT — had not. Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH and Saskatchewan Premier SCOTT MOE were also still verified, but Ontario Premier DOUG FORD and Quebec Premier FRANÇOIS LEGAULT were not. — But but but: Lest you think that only Conservative politicians are willing to send Musk their cash, Playbook also noticed that Liberal MP NATE ERSKINE-SMITH still has his blue check, as do Edmonton mayor and former Liberal cabmin AMARJEET SOHI and Montreal Mayor VALÉRIE PLANTE. — Why does this matter? The latest change may prompt another wave of Twitter users to quit the platform, or to at least vaguely suggest they’ll use it less. The CBC, of course, hasn’t tweeted since earlier this week, when Twitter labeled it “government-funded media” — a label that, incidentally, also disappeared on Thursday. Earlier this week, Liberal strategist DAVID HERLE announced he’d no longer be personally posting on the platform, due to Musk’s “political agenda.” But the reality is we’re mostly still there, because we can’t look away. Case in point: Herle is still promoting his podcast on the site, and last we checked, his account still had that little blue check. So maybe it doesn’t matter at all. PICKET PREDICTIONS — Every day, redditors are placing bets on how long the Public Service Alliance of Canada will be on strike. On Wednesday, 55 percent of prognosticators guessed the work stoppage would extend to at least April 24. On Thursday, a plurality of 46 percent said the strike wouldn't end before April 25. — How will it end? 45 percent of Reddit voters are betting on a negotiated settlement. A mere 15 percent think the government will force them back to work via legislation. | | | WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN | | | 
Britain's King Charles III pays a visit to The Felix Project in Poplar, East London, to recognise the staff, volunteers and partner organisations who work to provide meals to some of London's most vulnerable people, Wednesday Feb. 22, 2023. (Victoria Jones/PA via AP) | AP |
Who’s up: CHARLES THE THIRD, who still gets to eat quiche even if he’s no longer the Defender of the Faith.
Who’s down: Quebec’s CAQ GOVERNMENT, which broke its longstanding promise to build a car tunnel between Quebec City and Lévis this week, but at least feels really, really bad about it. | | HALLWAY CONVERSATION | |
MISSING THE MARK — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU said the quiet part out loud when he told NATO officials Canada would never meet the military alliance’s two percent target for defense spending, per a story in the Washington Post this week.
The story made waves when it broke on Wednesday, and it’s given the Conservatives lots of fodder for Question Period. Then again, the Liberal government has never made a commitment to hit the NATO target, so it’s perhaps not shocking that Trudeau said explicitly what his budget decisions have implied for years. Playbook spoke with RICHARD SHIMOOKA, a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, about the story and why it should matter to Canadians. This interview has been edited for length and clarity. Is there anything about this story that surprised you? No. Flat-out no. We're not going to reach two percent. We've known that for ages. The Government of Canada has never said we're going to reach two percent. And it’s absolutely clear that our allies are not happy about this. I've heard “freeloader” being thrown about by senior people within the U.S. government. That's what they see us as. In part, the Conservative government did not fully spend on certain areas — they did cut back. But the vast bulk of this is due to what has happened since the Trudeau Liberals, who haven’t spent even close to what was required. And now we see the real consequences of it. Why should the average Canadian care about our defense spending? Our prosperity is heavily based on the idea that there is international trade, that there is a stable global order that allows us to have free movement of people. And that prosperity doesn't come for free. In a very granular sense, if you think about trade deals, I think our allies become less willing to make concessions when they see you're enjoying all the benefits of the system, but at the most basic level, you're not paying for it. As a last argument, the moral side of it is that Canada has always seen itself as a good partner, as a good ally. And in a lot of cases, Canada's no longer seen like that. Does reaching the two percent target matter in and of itself? It's not some sort of magical number. But what happens with two percent is that you start seeing a lot of the numbers aligned to make the military sustainable. What Canada has generally done is basically push back the procurement and focus a lot of its budget on personnel and operations and maintenance. We have so many systems that are past 20 years of age and really require replacement. And we're just kind of keeping it going through paying more to keep them operating. You always have to be replacing equipment that's getting old. So when your budget hits two percent, you actually start spending enough on procurement, and then you start replacing things as required. | | MEDIA ROOM | |
— The Liberals agreed to subsidies that could top C$13 billion over a decade, effectively matching incentives in the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act, to persuade Volkswagen to build an electric vehicle battery plant in Ontario. Bloomberg’s BRIAN PLATT got the scoop.
— Canada’s spy agency warned in mid-2020 that the Covid-19 pandemic would spark a wave of conspiracy theories and violent extremism, PETER EDWARDS reports for the Toronto Star. — For the Hub, TREVOR TOMBE argues against an emissions cap for the oil and gas sector. — Immigration Minister SEAN FRASER is the latest Trudeau Cabinet member to join DAVID HERLE in conversation — an episode of the pod that runs almost 90 minutes. — Google executives told a parliamentary committee they haven’t made a decision about whether to block news content from search results in response to the Liberals’ online news bill, the National Post’s ANJA KARADEGLIJA reports. | | PROZONE | |
For POLITICO Pro s, via NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY and SUE ALLAN: Speed read the budget bill.
And ZI-ANN LUM reports: Imperial Oil in damage control over Alberta tailings leaks. In other news for Pro s: — Covid fallout: A worldwide drop in trust in vaccines. — The U.S. Forest Service creates first ever inventory of old-growth, mature forests. — Canada one-upped IRA subsidies to land Volkswagen deal. — Lawmakers introduce bill to strengthen U.S. cyber support to Taiwan. — Manchin grills Granholm over 'budget busting' electric vehicle rules. | | PLAYBOOKERS | |
Birthdays: HBD today to former MP ANDY MITCHELL … and journalist extraordinaire BRIAN STEWART celebrates his 81st birthday.
Celebrating Saturday: Former CBC News Network anchor SUHANA MEHARCHAND, LOUISE HAREL, MARY FRAGEDAKIS, GHISLAIN MALTAIS, VAL MEREDITH and CÉLINE HERVIEUX-PAYETTE. Sunday birthdays: MP BERNARD GÉNÉREUX, DOUGALD LAMONT and ELI EL-CHANTIRY. Send birthdays to ottawaplaybook@politico.com. Spotted: ANDRÉ PICARD, celebrating 36 years at the Globe and Mail. Global’s MACKENZIE GRAY, doing some back-of-the-envelope math to calculate when PSAC’s strike fund will run out (TL;DR it’s soon). HAN DONG, seeking C$15 million in damages in his defamation lawsuit against Global News. Movers and shakers: NAVDEEP BAINS is joining Rogers Communications Inc. as chief corporate affairs officer, shortly after ruling out a run for the Ontario Liberal leadership. The move comes just after Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE approved Rogers’ takeover of Shaw Communications Inc. late last month. Champagne took over as industry minister in 2021 from none other than one NAVDEEP BAINS. Media mentions: Buzzfeed News is shutting down, part of a 15 percent reduction in the company’s workforce. Farewells: WARREN STEINLEY paid tribute to the life of Saskatchewan MLA DEREK MEYERS in the House on Thursday. “I consider Derek my ‘where and when’ friend,” Steinley said. Ball hockey tournament? “I am in. Where and when?” Door-knocking in February at minus 30? “I am in. Where and when?” Meyers was 45 when he died of cancer last month. MELISSA LANTSMAN spoke in the House in memory of former MP JOHN OOSTRUM, who died last month. “We recognize John's service to Canada and to the Toronto area,” she said. | | | On the Hill | |
→ Find upcoming House committees here
→ Keep track of Senate committees here 8:45 a.m. RAPHAËL GLUCKSMANN, French socialist lawmaker and European Parliament member, will be at the House ethics committee to aid MPs’ study of foreign interference. 8:45 a.m. The Ukrainian Canadian Congress’s IHOR MICHALCHYSHYN will be at the House national defense committee to offer a briefing on the war in Ukraine. 8:45 a.m. The House human resources committee meets to study Bill C-35. 1 p.m. The subcommittee on international human rights of the House foreign affairs committee will hear from witnesses about the Chinese government's residential boarding schools in Tibet. — Behind closed doors: The House natural resources committee reviews a draft report of its study on federal assistance for various industries; the House official languages committee meets to discuss draft reports for two studies. | | TRIVIA | |
Thursday’s answer: When asked if he ever smoked pot, JACK LAYTON told Much Music: “Yes, and some might say I never exhaled.”
Props to GEOFFREY HALL, CHRISTOPHER LALANDE, KATE DALGLEISH, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, NANCI WAUGH, DOUG RICE, GEORGE SCHOENHOFER, ALYSON FAIR, JOE BOUGHNER, TISHA ASHTON, PATRICK DION and BOB GORDON. Think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best. Friday’s question: Who was WOP MAY — and how is he connected to this day in history? Playbook wouldn’t happen: Without Luiza Ch. Savage and Sue Allan. Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |  |
