Party time in the Bubble

By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Kyle Duggan

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Thanks for reading the Ottawa Playbook. I'm your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey, with Kyle Duggan and Zi-Ann Lum. Today, Liberals fill the bubble for their first in-person convention since before Covid. We have the lowdown on where drinks will go down. Plus, a glimpse into what it takes to make a simple bureaucratic name change.

SAVE THE DATES — Playbook Trivia is back. Get out your calendars and circle June 15 at the Metropolitain. Registration is open. Space is limited. RSVP via this Google Form. Please don't send your RSVP via email. Please do send news tips and gossip.

We’ll almost certainly hit capacity before 9 a.m. Don't delay!

— Wait, there’s more: We're also taking our show on the road.

Playbook Trivia Night is heading to Alberta. We'll be in Calgary on May 23 and Edmonton on May 24. There will be special guest quizmasters. More details — and RSVP links — next week.

RALLY TIME — The schmoozefest to end all schmoozefests kicks off in Ottawa today when 4,000-plus Liberals open their first biennial convention since 2019.

The three-day gathering has something for networkers, policy wonks, fundraisers, campaigners, and even future leadership aspirants. Playbook canvassed all the Liberals in our contact list to create a compendium of what's on the party's mind. Here's what we found.

— Call to action: Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will speak tonight at approximately 8 p.m. Watch for a line that galvanizes the party faithful — a chance for the leader to strike a fresh tone.

Trudeau's 28-minute speech at the recent Eurasia Group/BMO U.S.-Canada Summit is worth a rewatch.

— The specter: Tory leader PIERRE POILIEVRE won't be in the room, but nor will he be far. This is a man who makes Liberals wince.

— No elephant: Is there talk of a civil war that will divide the party and deliver an election to Poilievre? No. No, there is not. But the convention is a chance for post-Trudeau contenders — MÉLANIE JOLY? FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE? ANITA ANAND? MARK CARNEY? OTHERS? — to gladhand.

— Soft power: DAN ARNOLD, the former head of polling in the Prime Minister's Office who has attended every party convention since PAUL MARTIN was elected leader in 2003, hails from Alberta — a traditionally weak spot for Liberals.

Arnold says the confab offers delegates a chance to take their message directly to the party's powerbrokers. "It is good to have that prairie voice more in people's faces," he says, where they can have a "direct conversation in a hospitality suite with somebody in the PMO."

— ISO staffers: The convention is a massive networking event.

Delegates can pitch services to senior Hill staffers staring at glaring vacancies in ministers' offices, where pandemic burnout and general fatigue have thinned the ranks.

— Gear shift: The government has spent considerable resources responding to the war in Ukraine, countering the Inflation Reduction Act's green subsidies, and checking off items on a confidence-and-supply deal with the NDP.

Expect backroom chatter at the convention to focus on the need to transition from a reactive policy agenda to a proactive offer that would form the basis of an election platform.

THE NUMBERS IN THE ROOM — We have fresh survey results this morning from Abacus Data’s online tracking. As the Liberal convention gets underway, Abacus shows a tight horse race: Conservatives are at 33 percent, with the Libs at 31.

When they ask each other what isn’t connecting with voters, Liberals may want to memorize some of their wince-worthy numbers. Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU's negative impressions outweigh his positives by a score of 50 percent to 31.

Pollster DAVID COLETTO tells Playbook a Conservative win is currently the most likely outcome, but the Liberals’ shrunken-yet-still-pliable accessible voter pool of 46 percent shows “the door hasn't been completely shut” on a fourth-straight win.

“I wouldn't count it out at all," he says, "but the environment and the odds are going to be much harder for them this time than at any point in their mandate so far.”

Good thing nobody's talking about an election.

ON THE AGENDA — POLITICO will be all over the Liberal convention — not only the receptions, but scroll down for our cocktail schedule.

— Key sessions: Playbook noted three rooms to watch on the agenda.

→ Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY will reflect on the 2021 election with Ontario MP TIM LOUIS; GENEVIÈVE HINSE, chief of staff to Quebec lieutenant PABLO RODRIGUEZ; and former PMO pollster DAN ARNOLD.

→ Four MPs will talk about "winning new seats in non-urban areas," a glaring weakness for the Liberals in the past two elections: VANCE BADAWEY, LEAH TAYLOR ROY, JENNIFER O'CONNELL and MIKE KELLOWAY. Note: None of the MPs is from west of Toronto.

→ Three MPs will speak to delegates about getting out the vote: TALEEB NOORMOHAMED from Vancouver, MARK GERRETSEN from southern Ontario and KODY BLOIS from Nova Scotia.

— Team Hillary: How did the former senator, secretary of state and presidential runner-up end up delivering a Friday evening keynote?

A source familiar with convention planning said Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND called Clinton herself to make the ask. The pair have known each other for "years," the source said, and worked together to bring Afghan refugees to Canada in the U.S. in the summer of 2021.

JUST ANNOUNCED — India’s Commerce and Industry Minister PIYUSH GOYAL is coming to town, confirms International Trade Minister MARY NG’s office. Goyal’s official three-day program begins in Ottawa Monday for trade talks before traveling to Toronto for two days.

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in private meetings. At some point, he'll speak with European Commission President URSULA VON DER LEYEN. He'll speak to the Liberal convention at approximately 8 p.m.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in private meetings.

7:30 a.m. (12:30 p.m. BST) Governor General MARY SIMON and National Indigenous leaders will have an audience with KING CHARLES III. Simon will be joined by Assembly of First Nations National Chief ROSEANNE ARCHIBALD, Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami president NATAN OBED, and Métis National Council president CASSIDY CARON.

12:30 p.m. Ukrainian ambassador YULIA KOVALIV will testify at the Senate foreign affairs and trade committee.

2 p.m. NDP leader JAGMEET SINGH will take questions from reporters in the House foyer. He'll attend question period afterwards.

3:30 p.m. Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT and Tourism Minister RANDY BOISSONNAULT will hold a media availability on “the ongoing situation at Imperial Oil’s Kearl Oil Sands Processing Plant and Mine.”

COCKTAIL CIRCUIT — Of course there's a WhatsApp group chat.

700-ish fun-loving Liberals are monitoring it for up-to-date details on a bevy of receptions a short stroll away from the Shaw Centre convention space.

Playbook got a peek at the roster. Here's where Liberals are partying, and who's hosting. Drop us a line if there's anything we've missed.

THURSDAY

→ 5 p.m. at the Metropolitain: Sussex Strategy, the Forest Products Association of Canada

→ 7:30 p.m. at Sidedoor: Leafs fans can catch the game alongside iPolitics, Spark Advocacy, Edelman and Mainstreet Research

→ 8 p.m. at the Mondrian Building: Young Liberals presidential candidate LIAM OLSEN

→ 8 p.m. at the Clarendon Tavern: Liberal Party presidential candidate MIRA AHMAD and Intergovernmental Affairs Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC

→ 8 p.m. at Sens House: Liberal Party presidential candidate SACHIT MEHRA

→ 8:30 p.m. at Joy on Sussex: Prospective Ontario Liberal leadership candidate ADIL SHAMJI

→ 8:30 p.m. at Lowertown Brewery: National Capital Region MPs

→ 8:30 p.m. at the Lord Elgin's Pearson Ballroom: Team British Columbia

FRIDAY

→ 7:30 a.m. at Shaw Centre: Indigenous Electoral Endowment Fund breakfast — C$60 ticket

→ 3:30 p.m. at Rabbit Hole: Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY and Young Liberals

→ 4:30 p.m. at Albion Rooms: Liberal Party VP English candidate ROBBIE SCHUETT

→ 8 p.m. at Lord Elgin lobby: Métis Nation of British Columbia

→ 8 p.m. at Aulde Dubliner: Ontario Grits & Pints

→ 8:30 p.m. at Three Brewers: Prairies and North caucus

→ 8:30 p.m. at Shaw Centre: Judy LaMarsh fundraising cocktail — C$60 ticket

→ 9 p.m. at Lowertown Brewery: Young Liberals and LPC Quebec — C$20 ticket

NAME GAME — The briefing note is a true workhorse of government. Countless decisions from monumental to mundane are born in carefully crafted memos.

— This or that: So it was in a note written for DAVID MORRISON, the deputy minister of foreign affairs, which fell into Playbook's hands. PAUL THOPPIL, the assistant deputy minister for the department's Asia-Pacific branch, sought clearance for a name change.

The new moniker: Indo-Pacific.

— The logic: Ottawa is slowly implementing a new Indo-Pacific Strategy. But that emerging global region is not perfectly synonymous with the Asia-Pacific. Afghanistan, for instance, might be considered part of the latter — but not the former. This introduced the potential for brand and boundary confusion among bureaucrats whose work encompassed the region.

Spoiler: Morrison approved the change. But not without accepting a few risks.

— 'Minimal' risks: Thoppil flagged the Afghanistan question. A name change "could be seen as downplaying Canada's engagement" in the troubled nation, he wrote. Then again, Afghanistan is "not generally considered" to be part of the Asia-Pacific.

The department might also be getting ahead of its stakeholders, Thoppil warned, including the influential Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. Again, the senior bureaucrat swatted down the risk, saying a name consistent with the broader strategy would not likely rock the boat.

Not making the switch came with its own risks, including sending "incoherent and contradictory signals to external partners" and "risk undermining, at a superficial but important level, wider buy-in to Canada's Indo-Pacific strategy."

It's possible they overthought this one. Either way, GEDS is all caught up.

— The Globe reports: ALEXANDRE TRUDEAU rejects suggestion foundation donation was Chinese foreign interference.

— “The UCP is running a separatist campaign, but not the one you’d expect,” writes DON BRAID of the Calgary Herald. “This is a campaign to separate party Leader DANIELLE SMITH from her past.”

— The Decibel pod features MATT MCCLEARN on the missing two billion trees Trudeau promised.

— From the Ottawa Citizen, the saddest chapter yet in the saga of 24 Sussex. The National Capital Commission is "stripping it bare" as part of the "decommissioning" process.

— TVO's STEVE PAIKIN recalls his dinner with GORDON LIGHTFOOT.

Birthdays: HBD to Senator MICHAEL MACDONALD and Global News chief MERCEDES STEPHENSON. 

HBD + 1 to Syntax Strategic's LINDSAY CAMPBELL.

Do you have a birthday coming up? Does a colleague? Send us the dates and we'll tell the world.

Spotted: Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE and his DM SIMON KENNEDY at Riviera for a working dinner with Toyota Tsusho President/CEO ICHIRO KADHITANI.

Former diplomat ARTUR WILCZYNSKI, defending the honor of former Trudeau Foundation CEO MORRIS ROSENBERG. Concurring: U.N. ambo BOB RAE, retired ethics watchdog MARIO DION.

WYATT SHARPE, seeking an interview with ELON MUSK.

Movers and shakers: The Senate has two new members: JANE MACADAM and IRIS PETTEN. The PM named their appointments Wednesday, filling vacant seats in Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador, respectively.

NEIL BRODIE has joined H+K to lead the firm’s federal procurement team … MAREK HOLMES is repping the Coalition of Canadian Northern Air Services, which is prioritizing "ongoing pilot shortages, costs and declining services and increased costs to remote communities."

From the ethics files: Tourism Minister RANDY BOISSONNAULT recused himself from Cabinet deliberations over THOMAS ANTHONY RUTH's appointment to Canada Post's board of directors. Ruth is a "former client."

If you’re a , don’t miss our latest policy newsletter by ZI-ANN LUM: David Cohen on Canada’s ‘hissy fit.’ 

In other Pro headlines:
— World Bank taps Banga as next leader.
— Inside Congress's scramble to build an AI agenda.
— Future of fossils fuels dominates climate talks.
— NATO warns Russia could target undersea pipelines and cables.
— The Fed might be done with interest rate hikes: What you need to know.

→ Find the latest House committees here

→ Keep track of Senate committees here

9 a.m. The Senate agriculture and forestry committee meets to continue studying soil health.

9 a.m. The Senate fisheries committee meets to discuss the government’s response to its fourth report.

9:30 a.m. Mental Health and Addictions Minister CAROLYN BENNETT makes a research funding announcement at the Children’s Hospital of Eastern Ontario.

10 a.m. Registration opens at the Liberal Party of Canada’s national convention in Ottawa.

11 a.m. Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY is due at the House foreign affairs committee to talk about main estimates. MPs move onto a separate topic in the second half: a briefing by International Criminal Court Chief Prosecutor KARIM KHAN and IRWIN COTLER.

11 a.m. Merritt Mayor MICHAEL GOETZ and Princeton Mayor SPENCER COYNE will appear at the House transport committee’s study of adapting infrastructure to climate change.

11 a.m. The House health committee continues its study of medical oversight for breast implants.

11 a.m. The House finance committee resumes its Tuesday meeting.

11 a.m. Make way for more Ontario MPs at the procedure and House affairs committee study on the province’s electoral boundaries. On the witness list: VANCE BADAWEY, TONY BALDINELLI, PETER FRAGISKATOS, CHARLIE ANGUS, CAROL HUGHES, VIVIANE LAPOINTE, MARC SERRÉ and TERRY SHEEHAN.

11:30 a.m. Clause-by-clause consideration of Bill C-22 is on the Senate social affairs committee’s agenda.

11:30 a.m. ISED Deputy Minister SIMON KENNEDY and Finance Deputy Minister MICHAEL SABIA drop by the Senate banking committee’s study of business investment in Canada.

11:30 a.m. Cultural diplomacy is the first panel at the Senate foreign affairs committee before the topic shifts to the situation in Ukraine with Ukrainian Ambassador YULIA KOVALIV.

11:30 a.m. The Senate legal and constitutional affairs committee meets.

12 p.m. Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister MARC MILLER and First Nations chiefs forming the Regroupement Petapan hold a press conference in the Sir John A. Macdonald Building to discuss the Petapan Treaty project.

3:30 p.m. The House status of women committee meets to continue their study of human trafficking of women, girls and gender diverse people.

3:30 p.m. Non-tariff barriers up for discussion at the House international trade committee. MPs will hear from the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance, Canadian Cattle Association and International Cheese Council of Canada.

6:30 p.m. The House veterans affairs committee meets to continue their study on the experiences of women veterans.

6:30 p.m. The evening block at the House finance committee features Canadian Medical Association President Dr. ALIKA LAFONTAINE.

— Behind closed doors: The House fisheries committee meets to receive drafting instructions for its pinniped populations study and to talk about “committee business”; the House environment committee discusses its fossil fuels subsidies report; “committee business” is on the agenda at the House public accounts committee’s subcommittee on agenda and procedure; the Senate energy committee meets to review a draft agenda.

Wednesday’s answer: MATTHEW DUBÉ was the only member of the "McGill 4" to be re-elected in 2015.

Props to JOSHUA ZANIN, BOB GORDON, GEORGE SCHOENHOFER, JOANNA PLATER, ANNE-MARIE STACEY, GREG MACEACHERN, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, LAURA PAYTON, SARAH ANDREWS and MARC LEBLANC. 

Today’s question: On this day in 1910, the Naval Service Act established the Royal Canadian Navy. To which country did Canada look for support before that date?

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Correction: ANTHONY VALENTI was misspelled in Wednesday’s newsletter.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com

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Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey Sue Allan @susan_allan Maura Forrest @MauraForrest Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa

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