Home stretch in the House

From: POLITICO Ottawa Playbook - Monday Jun 19,2023 10:53 am

Jun 19, 2023

By Kyle Duggan with Philippe J. Fournier

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Welcome to Ottawa Playbook. I’m your host, Kyle Duggan, with poll analyst PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER. We’re watching the buzzer beaters on Parliament Hill and have eyes on today’s by-elections. And with barbecue season set to begin, we check in on the state of public opinion.

THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING

Parliament Hill, Canada

The House is poised to adjourn this week. | POLITICO Canada

HOME STRETCH — The last week or so of sitting days always make for a funny time in Parliament.

MPs are beyond squirmy and fed up.

Reporters eager for a break suddenly become intensely interested in procedure.

And the Senate gets an unusual amount of attention.

The House is poised to adjourn this week — Wednesday, the going speculation suggests.

Or Tuesday: “Why would Trudeau want to be in the House on Wednesday?”

Or Thursday: Punt the vote on the last opposition motion to fall.Did we mention Wednesday? Any day, really, would be just in time.

MPs have been more than cranky with each other, with the long days dotted with hijinks and outbursts. The taunting, the loading of rhetoric, the … emailing of shots across the bow to MPs across the aisle. Even flipping the bird in the House.

Last call for petty June antics before we all race to a patio.

BILLS, BILLS, BILLS — It’s too early for an accurate estimate on what could be up for royal assent in the closing days, although somewhere around eight bills might be in the ballpark or approaching it (three are already awaiting assent).

As for the Commons, Government House Leader MARK HOLLAND’s weekly preview mentioned Bill S-8, government legislation launched from the Senate that would strengthen Canada’s sanctions regime.

At report stage in the House, the bill would make Russian officials involved in the war against Ukraine, along with other foreign nationals Canada has sanctioned, inadmissible to the country.

With time allocation moved in the House, the Senate could make short work of this, if it makes it there, since it was not drastically overhauled in the House and isn’t very politically contentious.

Bill C-18 is at message stage. It’s the government legislation that has raised the ire of social and search companies Google and Meta for forcing them to negotiate compensation deals with news organizations over sharing of news links.

Reporters will be watching for whether and when the social media firms escalate their news blocking after testing it on a small portion of users once it clears Parliament.

— What else: Holland also mentioned two priority bills nowhere near ready for the Senate: C-40 and C-33, both at second reading debate.

LAST DRIPS OF COMMITTEE INTRIGUE — Later today, Whitecap Dakota Chief DARCY BEAR appears to talk Bill C-51. It will recognize the Saskatchewan First Nation as Indigenous and grant it self-governance.

Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister MARC MILLER appears afterward.

— Circle Tuesday in your planner: Over at the House ethics committee, the opposition will scrutinize former industry minister NAVDEEP BAINS’s latest gig as top corporate affairs officer at Rogers.

Witnesses include Lobbying Commissioner NANCY BÉLANGER and LYNE ROBINSON-DALPÉ from the ethics commissioner’s office.

PROC meanwhile will get rare appearances from ex-Global News journalist SAM COOPER and former CSIS director WARD ELCOCK, there to talk foreign interference.

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TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will be in Halifax with Immigration Minister SEAN FRASER and Emergency Preparedness Minister BILL BLAIR. At 12:40 p.m. local time, they’ll meet with fire fighters.

Later in the afternoon in Antigonish, the PM will meet with Nova Scotia Premier TIM HOUSTON.

In the evening, Trudeau will deliver remarks at the Atlantic Economic Forum.

— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Ottawa and will attend QP; she’ll otherwise be in private meetings.

11 a.m. Veterans Affairs Minister LAWRENCE MACAULAY is at the Canadian War Museum this morning to unveil the chosen design for the National Monument to Canada’s Mission in Afghanistan.

11 a.m. (9 a.m. MT) Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON and Intergovernmental Affairs Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC meet with Calgary Mayor JYOTI GONDEK for an announcement related to zero-emissions buses.

1:30 p.m. (7:30 p.m. GMT+2) Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE makes an announcement related to sustainable aviation during a reception at Ambassador STÉPHANE DION’s official residence in Paris. Champagne is in the city this week to attend the Paris Air Show.

4 p.m. (2 p.m. MT) WILKINSON and LEBLANC meet with Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH and Economy Minister BRIAN JEAN in Calgary.

For your radar

DECISION DAY — There are four federal by-elections today.

Last week in this space, 338Canada analyst and POLITICO contributor PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER previewed the races for Ottawa Playbook readers.

His advice: “Don’t expect many surprises. Though, how the main parties do could offer some pointers on voter enthusiasm.”

Some related reading on the races:

— STEPHEN WENTZELL spoke with Green Party co-leader JONATHAN PEDNEAULT, who described his decision to run in NDG-Westmount “the right fit at the right moment.”

— On The House, KATE MCKENNA reports that language politics is at centerstage in the Montreal federal byelection.

— From AARON WHERRY at CBC News: Suddenly, the World Economic Forum is a ballot box issue in a Manitoba byelection.

— The Star’s CHANTAL HÉBERT says the results will not alter House dynamics. “But they will provide a reality check on some of the assumptions that underpin the strategies of the main parties.”

— CP's MICKEY DJURIC: What observers are watching for.

— For your radar: Trudeau has called a byelection in Calgary Heritage for July 24 — that’s the riding left vacant when Conservative MP BOB BENZEN resigned.

FROM THE DESK OF 338CANADA

POLLS, POLLS, POLLS — Here’s Philippe on a flurry of new polls ahead of summer break:

Federal

Abacus Data has measured a significant dip in support for Trudeau’s Liberals. At 28 percent from coast to coast, it is the lowest Abacus has found the party since 2015, says CEO David Coletto.

— Conservative numbers: The personal numbers for PIERRE POILIEVRE continue to sour. The Conservative leader’s negative impressions have reached 40 percent, up six points since he took over the party last fall. His positive impressions have hovered around the 30 percent mark and now sit at 32.

— The PM's ratings: Liberal support may be eroding with an increasingly unpopular leader — Trudeau’s negative impressions stand at 49 percent against 30 percent position impressions — but Poilievre has yet to capitalize on it.

The CPC still hovers around its 2021 results both federally and in seat-rich Ontario and Quebec. See all federal polls here.

Manitoba

Manitoba will hold an election Oct. 3 in which the Progressive Conservatives will try to win a third consecutive majority.

Since BRIAN PALLISTER’s exit in 2021, new PC Leader and Manitoba Premier HEATHER STEFANSON has consistently trailed the Manitoba New Democrats.

The newest Angus Reid Institute poll, released this week, suggests Stefanson has her work cut out for her.

The province-wide numbers show a relatively close race (44 percent for the NDP against 39 percent for the Progressive Conservatives), but the regional breakdown gives the NDP a major advantage. With a 25 point-lead in Winnipeg (54 percent to 29 percent), the NDP could sweep most of the seats in the Manitoba capital and its surrounding suburbs.

— As it stands: The NDP are favored to take the reins of the legislature and WAB KINEW could become premier this fall. See Manitoba polls here.

Quebec

In the latest Léger poll out of Quebec, Premier FRANÇOIS LEGAULT’s Coalition Avenir Québec leads by double digits, including massive leads in suburban Montreal and among Quebec’s dominant francophone demographic.

However, Léger measures the Parti Québécois at 23 percent, 7 points ahead of third-place Québec solidaire. The PQ has closed the gap in Quebec’s rural regions — to 11 points from 31 points last fall. And in the Quebec City region, the PQ leads the CAQ by three points (30 to 27 percent).

While Legault has spent most of his premiership treating left-wing Quebec solidaire as his main rival, the three Parti Québécois MNAs have proven a force in the spring session. See Quebec polls here

Ontario

The latest Ontario survey from Abacus has Premier DOUG FORD’s PC comfortably ahead of its rival, with 36 percent of support across the province, 9 points ahead of the still leaderless Ontario Liberals. The official opposition NDP stands at 26 percent.

Now entering his sixth year in power, Ford remains firmly in command thanks to a still divided opposition. Abacus reports that Ford’s personal numbers have returned to pre-pandemic levels. Among the poll’s respondents, 47 percent hold a negative impression of Ford, while only 31 percent see the premier favorably. New NDP leader MARIT STILES has yet to make an impression: 29 percent of Ontarians do not know her — against 1 percent who do not know Ford. See Ontario polls here.

MEDIA ROOM

— Top of the Globe this morning: McKinsey pitched Purdue Pharma Canada on plan to boost opioid sales in 2014, memo reveals.

— Is Canadian politics getting nastier? On the It’s Political pod, ALTHIA RAJ puts the question to MPs and insiders.

— From POLITICO's PHELIM KINE: Blinken’s day one in Beijing yields agreement for more meetings.

— ARNO KOPECKY in The Walrus warns that every time the words “the new normal” are attached to a catastrophe, the words mean a little less.

— Institute for Research on Public Policy CEO JENNIFER DITCHBURN is on the latest Hot Room pod to talk about the lessons that emerged during last week’s conference on the Covid-19 pandemic.

— The Globe’s MARCUS GEE writes on the no hopers in Toronto’s mayoral race, “a collection of eccentrics, cranks, grifters, strivers, activists, idealists and egotists who are running for mayor knowing full well they have zero chance of coming out on top.”

— Finally, in case you missed it from the Star's STEPHANIE LEVITZ: Can Mendicino keep his job?

PROZONE

For POLITICO Pro s, our latest policy newsletter from ZI-ANN LUM and KYLE DUGGAN: Canada-U.S. asylum treaty court case isn't over.

In other news for Pro s:

— Are you an energy official? The U.N. wants to know.

— Railroad industry sues California over new rules on emissions.

— Russian cybercrime gang hacks federal agencies.

— U.S. lodges labor complaint against Mexican mine.

— Dairy Farmers of America splits with leading dairy trade group.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: CHRIS BALL of Bounce Strategies, author and philosopher JOHN RALSTON SAUL and BORIS JOHNSON.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.

Spotted: BEVERLEY MCLACHLIN and FRANK MCARDLE taking in King Lear at the Stratford Festival.

Sport Minister PASCALE ST-ONGE on CTV, urging politicians to stand up for LGBTQ2S+ rights and against “what we're seeing right now.” … PETER BEVAN-BAKER, using the annual general meeting of the P.E.I. Green Party to resign as party leader.

Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE hanging out with F1 drivers LEWIS HAMILTON, MAX VERSTAPPEN and FERNANDO ALONSO in Montreal.

Movers and shakers: The Business Council of Canada has a new special adviser: HEATHER EXNER-PIROT, whose expertise focuses on the “energy transition, Arctic development and security and Indigenous economic reconciliation.”

Media mentions: The Michener Award finalists from the past two years were honored Friday at Rideau Hall. The 2021 Michener was presented jointly to CBC SASKATOON: Inside the failed push to make the Catholic Church pay for its residential school abuses and THE GLOBE AND MAIL: Residential Schools. The winner for 2022 is THE GLOBE AND MAIL: Hockey Canada’s Secret Funds.

The Michener-Deacon Fellowship was awarded to MOLLY THOMAS for her investigative project on education in Afghanistan. L. Richard O’Hagan Fellowship goes to SARAH TRICK and ALANNA KING to create a new media style guide on disabilities.

CBC anchor DWIGHT DRUMMOND was recognized with an honorary degree from Toronto Metropolitan University.

Farewells: The life of EGBERT GAYE was celebrated in Westmount, CBC News reports. The founder and managing editor of Montreal Community Contact was 67 when he died earlier this month. “We honor the trailblazers,” poet ROEN HIGGINS told mourners. “We want them to see that we can also be great amongst the others, and that's what he stood for.”

On the Hill

— Find the latest House committee meetings here.

— Keep track of Senate committees here.

11 a.m. Veterans Affairs Minister LAWRENCE MACAULAY is at the Canadian War Museum to unveil the chosen design for the National Monument to Canada’s Mission in Afghanistan.

11 a.m. Judge ROSEMARIE AQUILINA, circuit court judge in Michigan, is a witness at the House Canadian heritage committee’s meeting studying safe sport in Canada.

11 a.m. It’s election day at the joint committee on the Library of Parliament. Joint chairs will be named by committee’s end.

11 a.m. The first 90 minutes of the House public accounts committee will study the auditor general’s report on access to safe drinking water in First Nations communities. The cameras turn off for the last 30 minutes when Interim Law Clerk and Parliamentary Counsel MICHEL BÉDARD will brief MPs.

12 p.m. It’s the Canada Revenue Agency’s turn in the spotlight at the House international trade committee’s meeting studying the impacts of the Underused Housing Tax on Canadian border communities.

3:30 p.m. Bill C-34 undergoes clause-by-clause consideration at the House industry committee meeting.

3:30 p.m. The House veteran affairs committee meets to launch its study, during the last sitting week until September, looking into the backlog at the Veterans Review and Appeal Board.

3:30 p.m. MPs on the House citizenship and immigration committee meet to continue their study of an exploitation scheme targeting certain international students.

3:30 p.m. The House government operations committee meets to take Bill C-290 through clause-by-clause consideration.

4 p.m. The Senate human rights committee has a meeting on its calendar.

4 p.m. MPs SAMEER ZUBERI, ADAM CHAMBERS and GARNETT GENUIS host a panel discussion in the Wellington building about “Canada's Leadership Role in Ending the Rohingya Crisis.”

6 p.m. The Senate legal and Constitutional affairs committee meets to study Bill S-12.

6:30 p.m. The House Canada-China committee meets to hear from department officials from finance and foreign affairs.

6:30 p.m. The House agriculture committee meets to study Bill C-280.

Behind closed doors: The House environment committee meets to discuss their report about clean tech.

Talk of the town

JOIN US IN WASHINGTON — Calling all Canada-U.S. geeks in D.C. Join us to play Ottawa Playbook Trivia on June 26 at Penn Social's Little Pen Coffeehouse.

Registration is open. Space is limited. RSVP via this Google Form.

Doors open at 7 p.m. First question at 7:30. We'll have a special guest quizmaster: Ambassador KIRSTEN HILLMAN.

TRIVIA

Friday’s answer: ANNE W. CORDELL of Brooklyn, New York, sent a note of congratulations and an offer of dance lessons to LOUIS ST. LAURENT.

Writes J.D.M. STEWART, who sent the question our way: “The response from the PMO thanked Ms. Cordell for the offer but declined saying it ‘was doubtful he would have much time to take advantage of them.’”

Monday’s question: A president once said of a Canadian PM that he “never wanted to see the boring son of a bitch again.” Name the president and the prime minister.

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: Luiza Ch. Savage, Sue Allan and David Cohen.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

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