The rooms where it happens

From: POLITICO Ottawa Playbook - Tuesday Jul 11,2023 10:01 am
A daily look inside Canadian politics and power.
Jul 11, 2023 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Kyle Duggan

Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it.

In today's edition:

→ The meeting at NATO that matters most

→ If Cabinet gets a reset, don't assume strong players will be shuffled

→ More details from Ottawa on a law rankling Meta and Google

DRIVING THE DAY

Security officers patrols at the venue of a NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, Monday, July 10, 2023. (Yves Herman, Pool Photo via AP)

Security officers patrols at the venue of a NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, Monday, July 10, 2023. (Yves Herman, Pool Photo via AP) | AP

SUMMITRY 101 — YVES BRODEUR knows where to find the action at NATO summits.

Brodeur was Canada's ambassador to the military alliance between 2011 and 2015. He choreographed the elaborate details that set the stage for then-prime minister STEPHEN HARPER's arrival in Chicago in 2012 and Wales in 2014.

— The state of play: World leaders in Vilnius are searching for consensus on massive questions that could reshape the global geopolitical landscape. The big headlines revolve around Ukraine's potential membership in the alliance.

— A day before the summit: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY urged NATO to offer his country a pathway into the club. The alliance is still negotiating the terms, POLITICO's LILI BAYER reports.

— Also in the works: Until Monday, Sweden's NATO accession wasn't a slam dunk. But the ground shifted quickly in the leadup to the summit. Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN tried to use Sweden's accession into NATO as a bargaining chip for Turkish membership in the European Union, POLITICO's GABRIEL GAVIN reports.

A game-changing trilateral meeting Monday between Erdoǧan, Swedish PM ULF KRISTERSSON and NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG produced a deal. Turkey agreed to support Sweden's application. POLITICO's Bayer has the details.

— Still out there: Hungary has also refused to back the bid, though Stoltenberg says Hungarian Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBAN has promised his country would not be the last holdout.

— So far unresolved: There's also the issue of members spending 2 percent of GDP on defense — a tricky one for the Canadian delegation, which wants to change the math on what counts as spending.

FOLLOW THE LEADERS — For all the diplomatic prep work in a frenzied pre-summit period, the thorniest issues don't get decided by ambassadors or ministers.

The final call on those falls to the bosses.

— Not all meetings are equal: Some are scripted. Others are spontaneous. Some are friendly. Others are frank. Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU's agenda could include all of the above.

Brodeur explains which rooms in Vilnius will matter most.

— The working dinner: This is one of the most reliably important gatherings — a staple of the alliance's summits that can be more freewheeling than the formal plenary sessions where leaders typically express solidarity.

Tonight, Lithuanian President GITANAS NAUSĖDA hosts NATO leaders at the country's presidential palace for a "social dinner."

These working dinners "tended to be open and frank," says Brodeur. "Sometimes harsh. It's a crucial moment during the summit" for leaders to exchange views. It's not for public consumption, and Brodeur has never heard of any leaks.

In Brodeur's time, each leader was allowed only a handful of guests. That roster could include a minister, ambassador or senior adviser. But a slightly larger group from each delegation had its ears on the proceedings from a "listening room." Their job was to solve impasses in real time.

— The bilats: One-on-one time is a key component of summitry for leaders who don't see each other often. They also offer a more intimate opportunity to practice the art of persuasion. "Generally speaking, the bilaterals are aimed at trying to convince a reluctant nation to endorse something that they don't want to," says Brodeur.

— Case in point: U.S. President JOE BIDEN's planned tête-à-tête with Erdoǧan (first reported by POLITICO's JONATHAN LEMIRE and ALEX WARD), in which Biden was reportedly planning to convince the Turkish leader to back Sweden's bid.

POTUS will also meet with Zelenskyy on Wednesday.

— Lemire and Ward on the goal: "Biden will look to convince Zelenskyy that removing a series of bureaucratic hurdles and reforms, in addition to a large security commitment by the U.S. and some NATO allies, was the most Kyiv could get in Vilnius this year."

— Bilats will be plentiful: Brodeur says diplomats spend weeks hammering out agendas with counterparts, and then write scripts to guide the leaders' conversation. Choreography is often the goal. Friendly leaders can go off-script. So can unfriendly ones.

Sometimes a PM or president will spontaneously corner a counterpart on the sidelines. Meetings can last five minutes, or they can stretch to 20. It can depend on the leaders' relationship, the issues at play, the venue, the agenda and even the time of day.

— The bottom line: NATO ambassadors don't sleep a lot during summits. Brodeur would typically return home between 1 and 2 a.m., and be back in action at 6 a.m.

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is at the NATO summit in Vilnius.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELND is in Belle Plaine, Saskatchewan.

— The Assembly of First Nations holds its annual general assembly through July 13.

7 a.m. (2 p.m. local time) Trudeau will attend a meeting of the North Atlantic Council.

12 p.m. Innovation Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE is at General Dynamics Mission Systems in Sherbrooke, Que., to announce "further investments to develop the Canadian aerospace industry." He'll be joined by Quebec Economic Development Minister PASCALE ST-ONGE and Sherbrooke MP ÉLISABETH BRIÈRE.

1 p.m. (11 a.m. MT) Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN  WILKINSON will be in Drumheller, Alberta, for a Smart Renewables and Electrification Pathways Program (SREPs) announcement.

1:30 p.m. The Canadian Ombudsperson for Responsible Enterprise will hold a news conference announcing the launch of investigations into allegations that two Canadian companies "benefited from the use of Uyghur forced labor in their supply chains and operations in China."

2 p.m. (8 p.m. local time) Trudeau will attend a dinner given by Lithuanian President GITANAS NAUSĖDA.

3 p.m. The Canadian Transportation Agency will hold a virtual technical briefing on the CTA's next steps in the area of air passenger protection — specifically, how the CTA plans to implement budget bill provisions that called on the agency to "simplify and strengthen the Canadian air passenger protection regime."

3:15 p.m. (1:15 p.m. CST) Freeland will tour a mine and meet with workers.

Talk of the town


CABINET RESET — Welcome to Playbook’s midsummer stocktake. This week, we’re looking at JUSTIN TRUDEAU's 38-minister Cabinet — putting ministers under the microscope and dispensing miscellaneous notes to shuffle-watchers.

Agree with the punditry? Disagree? Let us know what’s missing.

— First up, PASCALE ST-ONGE: The minister for sport is also responsible for Quebec economic development.

St-Onge's portfolio hasn't traditionally been synonymous with headlines (with the odd exception), but she was center stage when Hockey Canada faced sexual assault allegations involving the 2018 and 2003 World Junior teams. This spring, the minister unveiled reforms meant to ensure safer sports in Canada.

St-Onge also responded forcefully when the nation's governing body for soccer ran into financial difficulties. She attached conditions to Canada Soccer's federal funding.

"She came out with the puck," SCOTT REID, a longtime politico and panelist on the Curse of Politics pod, tells Playbook. "Then took on the mansplainers wrecking women’s soccer. A star in the making. Watch out."

A star she may be, political commentator EVAN SCRIMSHAW tells Playbook. But staying put might be the smart move if the government craves stability.

"This is probably where her talents are best served," he says. "Moving her would endanger the cross-partisan consensus that the government’s handling this well — and would limit the utility of any federal response to the NHL’s allegedly imminent report into the 2018 allegations."

— Next, JEAN-YVES DUCLOS: Scrimshaw calls Duclos the Minister For Stability And Competence. The health minister stickhandled the negotiation of federal-provincial health funding agreements — a deal that diffused tensions with provinces that demanded billions of new federal dollars for their overtaxed healthcare systems.

The significant cash injection appears to have shielded the government from front-page firefights with the premiers. Health care is on the agenda at premiers' summer meetings, but CBC News reported the issue "won't dominate" the meetings.

If the PM is looking for a minister who doesn't create headaches that preoccupy the Prime Minister's Office, Duclos fits the bill — especially, Scrimshaw says, if the new gig is a portfolio "in need of a dose of technocratic competence."

— Chair chairs: SEAN MURPHY, a senior consultant at Earnscliffe who worked in the Tory whip's office for a decade, advises shuffle-watchers to pay attention to the Liberal MPs who head up House committees.

"Look to the committee chairs for clues," he writes. "Any chairs that are set to retire or due for a promotion? Those vacancies likely become the soft landing for ministers who find themselves on the outs. See: BARDISH CHAGGER and MARC GARNEAU after the 2021 election."

For your radar

Attendees visit the Meta booth at the Game Developers Conference 2023 in San Francisco on March 22, 2023.

The Angus Reid Institute says three-in-five Canadians want tech firms to compensate media companies. | AP Photo/Jeff Chiu

 WAITING GAME — Ottawa laid out next steps for its controversial online news act that has it locked in a duel of words with Meta. Although the details are vague and a bit … meta.

Officials are drawing up rules that set out which platforms fall under the act and the conditions for getting exemptions. The act will force Meta and Google to negotiate deals to compensate news organizations for linking to their content.

Heritage Minister PABLO RODRIGUEZ painted a contrast between the two tech firms last week when he said the government is “deeply convinced that Google’s concerns will be resolved through regulations.”

— Ottawa sets target: According to a government backgrounder released Monday, it will be up to Rodriguez to set a financial threshold for contributions based on a platform’s estimated Canadian revenues, “specific to each platform and their position within the news marketplace.”

Quote of note: “Looks like a tax on revenues,” tweets University of Ottawa law professor MICHAEL GEIST, who has criticized the bill as a threat to freedom of expression.

What’s next: There’s no short-term deadline for producing draft regulations, but there’s a clear final deadline for the legislation to come into force: Dec. 19.

— Access denied: Three-in-five Canadians want tech firms to compensate media companies,according to an Angus Reid poll. Yet just as many fret about losing access to Canadian news through Facebook and Google.

Around half of Canadians want the government to fold in its fight with the Silicon Valley firms. Very few pay for news subscriptions.

MEDIA ROOM

— An update on ELIZABETH MAY’s homepage announces that she spent time in Saanich Peninsula Hospital, “undone last week from sheer overwork, fatigue and stress.” She was discharged Saturday and is home resting, her husband writes.

— The owners of the Toronto Star and Postmedia ended conversations about a potential merger.

— CP's STEPHANIE TAYLOR reports that senior public servants had no reason to believe that Public Safety Minister MARCO MENDICINO was in the dark about PAUL BERNARDO's prison transfer in May.

DAVID PUGLIESE's latest lede on Canada's next generation of fighter jets: "Canadian aerospace companies have been told there are no guarantees they will receive work as part of an economics benefits package related to the C$19-billion F-35 fighter jet purchase."

ADAM RADWANSKI is on the Globe’s Decibel pod to discuss Canada’s multi-billion dollar bet on the electric vehicle market.

The Walrus features an excerpt from “Unbroken,” a memoir by CBC journalist ANGELA STERRITT.

— Who is First Nations, and who isn’t? “Self-identification just doesn’t cut it anymore,But I find myself reluctant to be in the position of gatekeeper,” DREW HAYDEN TAYLOR writes at TVO.org.

Top of POLITICO this hour: DONALD TRUMP wants classified documents trial delayed until after 2024 election.

PROZONE


For POLITICO Pro s, our latest policy newsletter: Rodriguez shares roadmap for online news act.

In news for POLITICO Pro s:
Last week was the hottest in recorded world history, U.N. agency says.
The wish list for the EU's greening transport package.
EU signs off on data transfers deal with U.S.
The hunt to fix carbon offsets.

PLAYBOOKERS


Birthdays: HBD to Minister of Fisheries and Oceans JOYCE MURRAY, academic MICHAEL GEIST, former MPs BOBBIE SPARROW and ROBERT SOPUCK. HBD + 1 to PMO press secretary ALISON MURPHY.

Spotted: A bus-based ad campaign in Vilnius, urging NATO to accept Ukraine as a member … Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH, posing for a photo with a man in an anti-LGBTQ shirt (and releasing a statement that says she didn't read the shirt).

Movers and shakers: JEAN-FRANÇOIS HOULD is no longer heading up the Quebec government's office in Washington. Hould has returned to the province's Chicago office, where he worked for nearly two years from 2017 to 2019.

The Walt Disney Company wants to lobby the federal government on the economic impact of Bill C-11, the Online Streaming Act. JASON BADAL, VP and general manager of direct to consumer, is the name on the listing. An online bio says his Disney job focuses on "driving growth of the Disney+ streaming service in Canada while seeking net new content for Canadian s."

Alstom, the French multinational rail transport manufacturer — the makers of Ottawa's LRT — posted a meeting with ANTHONY LAPORTE, Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND's director of strategy and outreach.

ROCCO ROSSI joined the advisory board of the Canada EU Trade and Investment Association.

Media mentions: The Walrus is accepting applications for the CIBC Digital Fellowship for Emerging Black Journalists, a full-time, one-year, paid position.

TRIVIA


Monday’s answer: Canada’s ninth prime minister was ARTHUR MEIGHEN. 

Props to KEVIN BOSCH, MATTHEW MCLEISH, ALLAN FABRYKANT, JEFF VALOIS, SARA MAY, LAURA JARVIS, GERMAINE MALABRE, DARREN MAJOR, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, GUY SKIPWORTH, CHARLIE SKIPWORTH and GEORGE SCHOENHOFER.

Today’s question: What is the name of the U.S. National Park located in Canada?

Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com.

Have a stumper for Playbook’s trivia players? Send it our way.  

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: Luiza Ch. Savage, Sue Allan and Emma Anderson.

 

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