From Rosedale to The Rock

From: POLITICO Ottawa Playbook - Monday Oct 23,2023 10:01 am

Oct 23, 2023

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By Nick Taylor-Vaisey

Presented by the Canadian dairy, poultry and egg sector

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Welcome to Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it.

In today's edition:

→ We rev the engines for another season of budget speculation.

→ A consequence of defense spending restraint: fewer ceremonial gun salutes.

→ Playbook pays a weekend visit to Tree No. 1 — the first of 2 billion.

THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING

FES SEASON — Time to pull out your calendars, launch your office pool and start the countdown until Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND's Fall Economic Statement — the fiscal update, in fishbowl jargon, which brings revised spending plans and deficit projections that get Hill watchers all worked up.

— Narrowing down the date: Freeland, who met private sector economists last Friday, hasn't announced FES Day. She has a narrowing window of weeks to table the statement. We can likely rule out this week. That leaves only six. We sketch out a few options.

We also cut out Fridays from our prognostication because finance ministers don't drop FESes at the end of the week.

→ Oct. 30-Nov. 2: Have an inkling this could be the week? Tell us, tell us, tell us why. Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY is delivering a pair of foreign policy speeches: Oct. 30 at the Economic Club of Canada, in Toronto; and Nov. 1, at the Montreal Council on Foreign Relations. The Sustainable Finance Forum, featuring keynote speakers MARK CARNEY and ANITA ANAND, runs Nov. 1-2 at the Shaw Center.

→ Nov. 6-9: The gossip in our texts has only focused on this window, which falls before a break week that gives Cabinet ministers the opportunity to fan out for a show-and-tell roadshow. That's if they have anything new to show off — and want to horn in on headlines coming out of the APEC Summit in San Francisco that runs Nov. 11-17.

→ Nov. 20-23: Maybe you've taken this window in your office pool? We're all ears.

→ Nov 27-30: The annual U.N. climate conference (COP28) opens Nov. 30 and runs through Dec.12 in the United Arab Emirates.

Are you CHRYSTIA FREELAND? Do you want to let us in on any secrets related to fiscal and economic matters? Mi inbox, su inbox.

A message from the Canadian dairy, poultry and egg sector:

Canada’s innovative system of supply management supports sustainability, enables innovative solutions, promotes Canada’s food sovereignty, and drive economic activity that builds strong communities. Supply management is a testament to the strength and resilience of Canadian agriculture sector. Stand with Canada’s farmers by supporting Bill C-282, An Act to amend the Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development Act (supply management). Click here to learn more.

MORE COMPLEXITY — Don't expect any cross-party unanimity this week on what Canada should do or say about the Israel-Hamas conflict.

A letter co-signed Friday by more than 20 Liberal, NDP and Green MPs called for a ceasefire. No Tory or Bloc Québécois MPs joined them.

The division among Liberals on the ceasefire question is particularly pronounced, though the party's MPs insist their big tent can handle tough conversations.

— Case study: Liberal MP BEN CARR and several colleagues posted a photo of one of those intraparty confabs on Thursday.

"Today, I met with my Arab, Muslim, Jewish, and Israeli colleagues from the Liberal caucus," he wrote. "We may not agree on all next steps in relation to this crisis in the Middle East, but we share a belief in the power of relationship and dialogue. I urge Canadians working through this together to hold near the values of kindness, compassion, and humility."

— In the room: OMAR ALGHABRA, SALMA ZAHID, ARIF VIRANI, KARINA GOULD, TALEEB NOORMOHAMED, JULIE DABRUSIN, RACHEL BENDAYAN, ANTHONY HOUSEFATHER, SHAFQAT ALI, FAYÇAL EL-KHOURY, LENA METLEGE DIAB, YA'ARA SAKS.

— In the weeds: Defense Minister BILL BLAIR announced Saturday that an Israeli strike was not likely the cause of a deadly hospital explosion in Gaza on Oct. 17.

"The more likely scenario is that the strike was caused by an errant rocket fired from Gaza. We will continue to provide updates as new information becomes available,” Blair said in a statement, crediting the review and analysis to Canadian Forces Intelligence Command.

A Sunday statement from the Department of National Defence, citing "open source and classified reporting," elaborated on the Canadian conclusion:

"This assessment is informed by an analysis of the blast damage to the hospital complex, including adjacent buildings and the area surrounding the hospital, as well as the flight pattern of the incoming munition," read the statement.

Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU had been criticized for earlier comments on the hospital explosion. When first asked about the “Israeli strike,” Trudeau called it “horrific and absolutely unacceptable.” The prime minister had refused to assign blame for the incident and tapped Blair to consult in-house experts.

— Conservatives are already asking: Why did it take several days for the government to reach the same conclusion as several allies, including U.S. President JOE BIDEN?

— The Quint + PMJT: Trudeau posted a readout of a conversation with Biden, French President EMMANUEL MACRON, German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ, Italian PM GIORGIA MELONI and British Prime Minister RISHI SUNAK.

AKA the same group of five world leaders that posted a joint statement in the aftermath of Hamas' attack on Israel sans Trudeau — which the government insisted was not a snub.

DONOR CIRCUIT — JUSTIN TRUDEAU and PIERRE POILIEVRE are both hitting up supporters for party war chest injections.

— Across the river: Trudeau will headline a Tuesday evening fundraiser hosted by Government Whip STEVEN MACKINNON at the Gatineau airport — a venue only a short drive from the Ottawa River, where MacKinnon has for years pushed for a new bridge.

Treasury Board President ANITA ANAND and Procurement Minister JEAN-YVES DUCLOS will join the party’s party. MacKinnon served as Anand's parliamentary secretary when she was procurement minister.

The price of entry to the shindig: a C$1,500 donation.

— GTA suburbs: Innovation Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE will be in Aurora on Thursday. Newmarket–Aurora MP LEAH TAYLOR ROY hosts the minister for "cocktails, conversations, and canapés" at Magna Golf Club. Former Cabmin JEAN AUGUSTINE and former Newmarket mayor TOM TAYLOR are honorary event chairs. Noted on the club's website: "the use of mobile devices is discouraged."

— From Rosedale to The Rock: Poilievre lands in cushy Rosedale on Wednesday for a 6:30 p.m. mansion fundraiser, the Conservative leader's most recent foray into the kind of home that tends to attract top-dollar donors (not that there's anything wrong with that).

Poilievre won't be in Ottawa for the rest of the workweek. He's leading a 6 p.m. rally at a community center in Windsor, N.S. — a riding that is an electoral tossup, says 338Canada.

Friday will find the Tory leader inside the St. John's Delta Hotel, where he'll host another rally. He'll rile up a crowd in the heart of SEAMUS O'REGAN's riding — an unlikely pickup, but one of the few safe Liberal seats in a province with several Tory targets.

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TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Ottawa with "private meetings" on his public itinerary.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Ottawa with "private meetings" on her public itinerary.

10 a.m. Housing Minister SEAN FRASER will update reporters on the progress of the federal Housing Accelerator Fund.

3:30 p.m. RCMP Commissioner MICHAEL DUHEME is at the House Privacy and Ethics Committee this afternoon for a "briefing session" on the RCMP’s choice not to pursue a criminal investigation in relation to the SNC-Lavalin affair.

3:30 p.m. Guelph Mayor CAM GUTHRIE is a witness at the House finance committee's study on policy decisions and market forces that have led to spikes in home sales and rentals. Canadian Real Estate Association CEO MICHAEL BOURQUE is on board to appear.

4 p.m. Public Safety Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC will pay a visit to the Senate national security committee, where senators are studying Bill C-21, the gun control bill.

For your radar

THE SOUND OF SILENCE — The Canadian Armed Forces are struggling mightily to recruit, train and retain personnel. The pandemic worsened a pre-existing problem. It's gotten so bad that the military doesn't have enough people to offer most visiting dignitaries in Ottawa a gun salute.

A scaled-down list of ceremonial offerings was detailed in a tasking order circulated by Chief of the Defense Staff Gen. WAYNE EYRE in August.

"The CAF has been hampered by numerous deficiencies that have impacted the composition and readiness of the CAF, and which have been compounded by the global pandemic," read the order, obtained by POLITICO.

He ordered ceremonial military honors to be scaled down to a "sustainable level" until 2025.

— There's that R-word: The word of the moment in federal budgetary circles is restraint. Same goes for a resource-thin military forced to reckon with a lack of people.

The Department of National Defence has been trying to solve the problem for more than a year. A directive published by Eyre and Deputy Minister BILL MATTHEWS on Oct. 6, 2022 laid out the scope of the challenge — and the need to rebuild.

"These strains continue to imperil the force size available for operations and have resulted in a significant loss of experience and expertise within the CAF, creating a requirement to recover and rebuild (reconstitute) the organization," read that directive.

Don't expect too many gun salutes before 2025.

The military will "provide restrained support to ceremonial, official, and international events, summits, and official or state ceremonies involving distinguished personages within the NCR," reads the tasking order. "This will include temporarily ceasing activities that are deemed non-essential and have a considerable requirement for personnel."

— By the numbers: A long list of dignitaries used to get the cannon treatment on arrival:

→ Then: The king and his consort, other members of the royal family, foreign royalty and heads of state, the governor general and her Commonwealth counterparts, lieutenant governors, the prime minister and his counterparts, the U.S. vice president, ambassadors and high commissioners, the defense minister and his counterparts, Commonwealth defense organizations, and senior military brass.

→ Now: The guns go kaboom only for visiting members of the royal family.

— The music hasn't died: The Canadian Armed Forces Band will still play for VIP visitors. But the military complement for ceremonial events is vastly reduced.

VIPs used to be greeted by up to 100 personnel. Now, only 23 will show up for the royal family — and everyone else gets 17.

A maple tree planted by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stands in a glade in a conservation area near Plainfield, Ont.

This isn't just any maple tree. This one was planted by a prime minister. | Nick Taylor-Vaisey/POLITICO

TREE NO. 1 — It's been four years since Trudeau and his kids, Xavier and Hadrien, planted a tree in a rural conservation area a short drive north of Highway 401 near Belleville, Ont.

That was the first of 2 billion trees the prime minister promised his government would get planted in 10 years. Much has gone sideways since that picturesque campaign pledge in 2019.

The pandemic broke pretty much every graph.

Economic growth evaporated, roared back, and then flattened. Covid brought stunning deflation, skyrocketing inflation, and now stubborn inflation. Federal deficits exploded before falling closer to earth, though they still run into the tens of billions on an annual basis. Public debt charges were historically low until rock bottom interest rates climbed sharply.

But that solitary maple tree, planted before the world went mad? Steady as she grows, Playbook confirmed on a weekend visit.

Note the height change since our earlier trip, a week before 2021 election day:

A fledgling maple tree is seen in the woods.

Trudeau planted this fledgling maple tree on a campaign stop in 2019 near Plainfield, Ontario. | Nick Taylor-Vaisey/POLITICO

— Tree counter: In August, the government claimed to have planted 110 million trees, "exceeding" targets and achieving 5.5 percent of the 10-year goal. Le Devoir's BORIS PROULX ran the numbers and reported that Ottawa was counting trees from other planting programs in the 2 Billion Tree initiative. JERRY DEMARCO, commissioner of the environment and sustainable development, called that "creative accounting."

The feds expect provinces and territories to plant half the trees, and have signed seven agreements in principle with them so far. They haven't inked deals with the two largest provinces — a glaring gap on the map. Forests cover two-thirds of Ontario and half of Quebec.

— Reality check: The federal website tracking the planting urges patience. "Not a sprint but a marathon," reads a header that describes the care that must be taken in getting the planning just right. "Trees," the same site reminds us, "do not appear overnight."

A message from the Canadian dairy, poultry and egg sector:

MEDIA ROOM

— Global's DAVID AKIN obtained six months of government-commissioned polling that painted a bleak picture for the Liberals. The surveys from January to June showed an increasing share of Canadians who say the government is on the wrong track. Only in Quebec did a majority of respondents say the feds were on the right track.

— Over at The Writ, ÉRIC GRENIER's latest projection offers more bad news for Liberals. But Grenier slapped an asterisk on his crystal ball: "Forecasting 24 months ahead requires some allowance for the unpredictable. That’s why I’m classifying the next election as a Lean Conservative rather than a Likely Conservative."

— Is the NDP "election-ready"? CBC's DAVID THURTON talked to party insiders about improving finances and road-tested messages.

— Nunavut holds municipal elections today. Nunatsiaq News breaks down the ballots.

— Bank of Canada Governor TIFF MACKLEM is expected to keep interest rates where they are at his scheduled rate announcement on Wednesday.

— ICYMI: The Globe's ADAM RADWANSKI went deep on the Canada Growth Fund. Or, as he calls it, "Ottawa’s mysterious C$15 billion green financing agency."

— From POLITICO's ADAM WREN: He was once a favorite of the right. Now, MIKE PENCE can’t get a crowd of 15 to a pizza ranch.

PROZONE

For POLITICO Pro s, our latest policy newsletter from ZI-ANN LUM: Team Trudeau feels weight of Israel-Hamas war

— Pipeline damage probe centers on Chinese ship, Finland says

— Joe Biden asks Congress for $1.2B to stop fentanyl at the border.

— Beijing curbs graphite exports as big powers clamp down on critical minerals.

— AI and the end of photographic truth.

— Carbon removal looks more promising by the day. Is methane next?

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to former politician GLENN THIBEAULT, Manitoba politician RANA BOKHARI and public affairs consultant ROBIN SEARS.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.

Spotted: At a Saturday night bash marking Liberal MP HEDY FRY's 30th anniversary as a parliamentarian, video tributes from JEAN CHRÉTIEN, JUSTIN TRUDEAU and a singing BOB RAE. MARCUS MOSELY, singing gospel music. KENDALL GENDER of Canada's Drag Race, netting a C$20 tip from Fry during her performance. Drag queen JOAN-E, praising Fry for getting out the gay bar vote on Davie Street. Fry's sons, DOUG and city councilor PETE. Citizens' Services Minister TERRY BEECH, accompanied by his daughters.

Sen. CLÉMENT GIGNAC, calling for a new fiscal anchor in the Fall Economic Statement, instead of "nice intentions" to "reduce deficits over time."

Movers and shakers: She's running (for a party nomination). LESLIE CHURCH, a long-serving Liberal staffer who most recently worked as CHRYSTIA FREELAND's chief of staff, is launching her campaign for the Toronto–St. Paul's Liberal nomination this coming Sunday in a room full of supporters in a Forest Hill home.

CONNOR LUND, a Queen's Park aide since 2021, is now a consultant at MICHAEL DIAMOND and CHRIS CHAPIN's Upstream Strategy Group.

— ALAN LARSON, a former American diplomat who is now a senior international policy adviser at Covington & Burling in Washington, is lobbying for Ukrainian investment firm SCM Consulting. The owner of the company is billionaire oligarch RINAT AKHMETOV, the richest person in Ukraine.

SCM wants to push Ottawa for "measures designed to allow Russia to be held accountable for damage inflicted in the course of its ongoing military operations on Ukrainian territory." Russian forces have bombed facilities run by SCM's mining and steel subsidiaries.

Larson's targets are the Prime Minister's Office, MPs and senators, the Department of Finance, and Global Affairs Canada.

A message from the Canadian dairy, poultry and egg sector:

Supply management has provided countless benefits to farmers and Canadians alike for over five decades. In an era of volatility and change, this innovative system acts as a stabilizing force in our agriculture sector. It offers Canadian farmers a stable market for their products, allowing them to plan for the future. This stability reaches well beyond the farm, fostering strong communities from coast to coast to coast.

Supply management provides a dependable supply of high-quality food on our store shelves while fostering innovation, sustainability, and domestic self-sufficiency. An economic powerhouse, it generates over 339,000 jobs, contributes $30.1 billion to Canada’s GDP, and delivers $5.95 billion in tax revenue each year.

This system serves as the foundation for our agricultural success. Stand with Canada’s farmers by supporting Bill C-282, An Act to amend the Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development Act (supply management). Click here to learn more.

On the Hill

11 a.m. The House human resources committee meets to study the Canada summer jobs wage subsidy program.

11 a.m. The House health committee meets to take Bill C-293 through clause-by-clause consideration.

11 a.m. Eight department officials from public safety, the Canada Border Services Agency, RCMP, and the RCMP’s civilian review and complaints commission have a date with the House public safety committee as MPs take Bill C-20 through clause-by-clause consideration.

3:30 p.m. The House science and research committee meets to study the use of federal grants with Canadian universities that have partnerships with the Chinese government.

3:30 p.m. Animal biosecurity preparedness is on the agenda for the House agriculture committee.

3:30 p.m. The House transport committee meets to study Bill C-33.

4 p.m. Public Safety Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC will pay a visit to the Senate national security committee where senators are studying Bill C-21.

5 p.m. Official Languages Commissioner RAYMOND THÉBERGE will be up at the Senate official languages committee.

Behind closed doors: The special Canada-China committee meets; the House status of women committee meets to discuss menstrual equity and pre-budget consultations; the Senate human rights committee will review a draft report of its study on discrimination in the Canadian Human Rights Commission.

TRIVIA

Friday’s answer: President JAMES MONROE signed the treaty that established the boundary between U.S. and Canadian territories at the 49th parallel.

Props to RODDY MCFALL, DARRYL DAMUDE, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, MATT DELISLE, BOB GORDON, GORDON RANDALL, STEPHEN KAROL, PATRICK DION, ROBERT MCDOUGALL and GEORGE SCHOENHOFER.

Monday’s question: On what date did the Senate meet for the first time?

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Emma Anderson and Luiza Ch. Savage.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

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