Quiet before the storm

From: POLITICO Ottawa Playbook - Monday Nov 13,2023 11:01 am
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Ottawa Playbook

By Kyle Duggan

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Welcome to Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it.

In today's edition:

→ Canadian parliamentarians are headed to the Halifax International Security Forum in what could be record numbers.

→ A bird’s-eye view of the week ahead as Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU heads to APEC.

→ The common thread through the weekend talk show circuit.

DRIVING THE DAY

RAMSTEIN-MIESENBACH, GERMANY - SEPTEMBER 19: Canadian Defence Minister Bill Blair gives a statement to the media prior to the 15th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base on September 19, 2023 in Ramstein-Miesenbach, Germany. The group is an alliance of approximately 50 countries that are supplying Ukraine with military hardware for the ongoing war with Russia. (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

Defense Minister Bill Blair will address the Halifax International Security Forum later this week. | Getty Images

FLEX ON THE COAST — Canadian politicians are expected to make a big splash at the Halifax International Security Forum that kicks off toward the end of the week — and Playbook heard it may be their biggest showing ever at the annual defense confab.

Some 20 parliamentarians across partisan stripes are expected to attend the international event where military brass and ambassadors gather, following a push by Defense Minister BILL BLAIR.

An official in Blair’s office told Playbook they’ve tried to “expand the presence” of MPs to rep Canada, meet with key players involved in defense and security internationally and demonstrate “multi-partisan support for Ukraine.”

“I don’t know if it’s the largest delegation ever of MPs, but we’ve pushed for that,” the official said.

Support for Ukraine is expected to be a major part of the conversation at the conference.

— Main message: If Ukraine wins and VLADIMIR PUTIN fails, pretty well everything will become easier for the West in international affairs. Just take a look at the on-the-record panels listed, themed around Ukraine winning, such as “Victory in Ukraine = Indo-Pacific Possibilities” and “Victory in Ukraine = Example for Israel.”

— New this year: Get used to hearing about the CRINKs (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea), a term the security conference for democracies is introducing to discussions this year, casting them as the current crop of bullies on the block who want to tear down the global order.

— Still a rookie in the role: Blair will give his first annual speech, sort of like the defense minister’s state of the union, a chance to lay out the government’s defense priorities. He’s just 139 days into the new role following the summer Cabinet shuffle.

— What everyone’s really wondering (Seinfeld style): What’s the deal with the heavily touted yet now incredibly late defense policy update?

Blair said last week it’s being delayed again to set out long-term spending plans.

More than a few have raised eyebrows over where exactly military procurement and spending stands as headline after headline warn of departmental cutbacks amid international pressure for Canada to up its spending.

 

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THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING

Demonstrators hold signs as they march in opposition to the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) Summit, Sunday, Nov. 12, 2023, in San Francisco. Hundreds of business executives, foreign press and world leaders will descend on San Francisco for the highly anticipated global trade summit. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)

Demonstrators march in opposition to the APEC Summit on Sunday in San Francisco. | AP

GOLDEN GATE GABFEST — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU heads to San Francisco this week for the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation ministerial meeting, the first time the City by the Bay is hosting the event. So too are Foreign Affairs Minister MELANIE JOLY and Trade Minister MARY NG.

— On the PM’s APEC agenda: Talking with world leaders about “opportunities in the digital economy, sustainable economic growth, women’s economic empowerment, trade facilitation, and energy and food security.”

— If you’re going to San Francisco …  Don’t expect a gentle ride. Trudeau and Co. will have a hard time escaping certain thorny issues. The summit is being hosted on the home turf of big American tech giants, which Canada has rankled in a few ways through new online publishing and tax policies.

The JOE BIDEN administration is urging the international community behind the scenes to extend the moratorium on a global digital services tax … as Canada pushes in the other direction. Without a signed agreement, expect fireworks to fly come January. — Not just the U.S.: You also might have noticed Canada and India aren’t on the best of terms at the moment and that Canada’s Indo-Pacific strategy ran into a … hitch.

Ottawa is looking to diversify its engagement and trade with Indo-Pac countries while the India part of the strategy is on ice, following the drama unleashed by Trudeau’s international assassination allegation.

Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKENsaid the U.S. wants to see Canada and India move ahead in the investigation of the murder of Khalistan activist HARDEEP SINGH NIJJAR.

Trudeau’s comments Friday produced a new wave of negative press in India ahead of the summit. He said the country “violated the Vienna Convention” by “arbitrarily revoking the diplomatic immunity of over 40 Canadian diplomats in India.”“If bigger countries can violate international law without consequences, then the whole world gets more dangerous for everyone,” he said.

— Big items for the U.S.: Reporter QUEENIE WONGwrites in the LA Times that the major meeting of world leaders isn’t expected to produce “any major breakthroughs,” but a few issues are top-of-mind for Biden: U.S.-Chinese tensions, climate change, drug trafficking, the Israel-Hamas conflict and Russia’s war with Ukraine.

FROM FAINT HUM TO ROAR — This is the last parliamentary constituency “break” week before the annual Christmas countdown crunch that sends the nation’s political machinery whirring into overdrive.

— Soon to dominate the agenda: The state of Canada’s finances in tough economic times. The rush to introduce pharmacare legislation that will test the viability of the Liberal-NDP pact. And the Conservatives’ push for a carbon-tax carve-out for farmers as the bill that would do that, C-234, finds itself gummed up in the Senate.

— Bureaucrats duke it out: Circle Tuesday in your calendar for the one big event set to bring high-stakes parliamentary drama this week. The government’s Chief Technology Officer MINH DOAN is scheduled to appear before the government operations committee for a return serve following last week’s juicy twist in the ArriveCAN saga.

CAMERON MACDONALD, an assistant deputy minister at Health Canada, had told the committee Doan lied to MPs at an earlier appearance, when the government’s top IT guy said he wasn’t involved in the decision to hire GCStrategies to build the controversial C$54 million pandemic-era travel app.

Under fire in Question Period about the revelations last week, Trudeau called the allegations “extremely concerning.”CAMPBELL CLARK’s take in the Globe on the rarity of such a bureaucratic brawl: “This doesn’t happen in Ottawa.”

COMMUNITIES ON EDGE — Following a string of hate-related incidents, such as firebombings of Montreal synagogues and bullets fired into Jewish schools in that same city, antisemitism was a theme that coursed through the weekend political talk circuit, as the Israel-Hamas conflict stretches into its sixth week.

--> On Global’s West Block, Liberal House Leader KARINA GOULDtold MERCEDES STEPHENSON that “there’s a lot of sadness and fear out there,” and many, “particularly Jewish people right now, are feeling very worried here in Canada.”

“We’ve seen a huge rise in antisemitism. We’ve seen a huge rise in Islamophobia as well. And both of those things are, in many ways, two sides of the same coin.”

--> On CTV’s Question Period, Canada's Special Envoy on Preserving Holocaust Remembrance and Combatting Antisemitism DEBORAH LYONS said “we have to come together — all Canadian communities, all Canadian leadership — to address this almost unprecedented time of pain and suffering and confusion, and anxiety about the future.”

She appeared alongside AMIRA ELGHAWABY, Canada’s special representative on combatting Islamophobia.

--> Lyons also made it on ROSEMARY BARTON LIVE, where she said she’s only into the fourth week of her job, and she’s spent a lot of her time on the road hearing from Jewish communities across Canada. “This is not an Ottawa-bubble job.”

— Who’s saying what: Montreal Liberal MP ANTHONY HOUSEFATHERposted on X: “Nothing happening in the Middle East excuses antisemitic hate & threats & attacks in Canada.”

Conservative MP MELISSA LANTSMAN on the shots fired at the school on Sunday: “How many times does this need to happen before the Federal government takes concrete action? Enough with the words.”

Former Public Safety Minister MARCO MENDICINO, also on the gunshots: “These criminals need to be caught, stopped and cracked down on.”

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS


— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the Greater Toronto Area where he will visit a local grocery store at 10:40 a.m. before attending events to mark Bandi Chhor Divas and Diwali.

— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in San Francisco for the APEC finance ministers’ meeting and will head home later in the day.

12:30 p.m. Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE holds a press conference in Vancouver, B.C., ahead of an evening rally in Duncan.

MEDIA ROOM


RISHI SUNAK has just appointed DAVID CAMERON as Britain’s new foreign secretary. Our colleagues in London have the details on today's shock comeback.

— Timely reading from the Globe’s TIM KILADZE: How Canada — and Bay Street — squandered the chance to finance the critical minerals revolution.


— Are aliens real? POLITICO asked the Pentagon’s outgoing UFO chief. “That is a great question,” SEAN KIRKPATRICK replied. “I love that question.”


— From DAVID THURTON at CBC News: What would it take for Canada to hit its climate targets?


— When the PM and President JOE BIDEN next meet, they will have something to commiserate over: their dismal standings in polls, NYT correspondent IAN AUSTEN writes in his Canada Letter. 


— Is it time for Trudeau to go? ALTHIA RAJ talks it out on the latest episode of her pod.


— And a bigger take on the same question from EVAN SOLOMON at GZERO: Biden and Trudeau: Stay or go?


— ICYMI, ANDREW POTTER has started a substack dedicated to the forgotten history of Generation X.

PROZONE

For POLITICO Pro s, our latest policy newsletter by ZI-ANN LUM: Critical worries at Raw Materials Week. 

In other news for Pro readers:

U.S. Treasury pushing to extend pause on digital services taxes.

COP28 host UAE pushes oil producers for climate pledges.

Acting White House cyber czar to step down next week?

White House tried, and failed, to persuade JOE MANCHIN to make another Senate run.

The power grabs that will determine control of U.S. Congress.

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to longtime Quebec Liberal PIERRE ARCAND, former MP LAURIN LIU and Ottawa city councilor RILEY BROCKINGTON.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way. 

Spotted: Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU and Veterans Affairs Minister GINETTE PETITPAS TAYLOR placing wreaths and shaking hands at the National War Memorial in Ottawa on Remembrance Day.

A status update from Liberal MP YVAN BAKER: “She said 'Oui'!” And a corresponding one from former MPP AMANDA SIMARD: “Soirée particulièrement spéciale.”

Canada’s Ambassador to the U.N. BOB RAE, cheering on women’s tennis.

Canada’s former ambassador to the U.N., LOUISE BLAIS, questioning why the government made a “devastating decision for Canada’s standing in the world” in a recent U.N. vote on Israeli settlements.


Rep. Brian Higgins (D-N.Y.) and other House members hold a press event on the U.S. Capitol steps to denounce the recent race-motivated shooting in Buffalo, N.Y., May 19, 2022. Higgins represents the district in which the shooting took place. (Francis Chung/E&E News/POLITICO via AP Images)

Rep. Brian Higgins announced a career update on Sunday. | AP

Departures: Rep. BRIAN HIGGINS (D-N.Y.) has announced plans to resign from Congress in February, after serving 19 years in the U.S. House of Representatives. “It's just a time for change, and I think this is the time,” he said Sunday.

Movers and shakers: MICHAEL MILLOY, the 13-year-old son of former Liberal cabinet minister JOHN MILLOY, just finished up two weeks working as a page at Queen's Park.

Personnel snapshot: The Hill Times’ LAURA RYCKEWAERT has a full accounting on who’s doing what in PMO after some changes earlier this fall.

 

Tune in as international security leaders from democracies around the world discuss key challenges at the 15th annual Halifax International Security Forum live from Nova Scotia. As an official media partner, POLITICO will livestream the conversation beginning at 3 p.m. on November 17. The Forum's full topical agenda can be found here.

 
 
On the Hill

— The House is adjourned until Monday, Nov. 20.

— Monday is a federal statutory holiday as Remembrance Day falls on a Saturday.

— Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY is in San Francisco for Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings, along with Trade Minister MARY NG.

8:45 a.m. The House finance committee will be in Quebec City, continuing its pre-budget consultation tour outside of the Ottawa bubble. Aluminium Association of Canada president and CEO JEAN SIMARD and Équiterre’s MARC-ANDRÉ VIAU are on the witness list.

TRIVIA

Friday’s answer: In 1984, JOHN TURNER’s campaign plane was nicknamed the "Derri-Air,” following scandalous bum-patting incidents.

Props to SHEILA GERVAIS, JIM ARMOUR, JENN KEAY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, JOANNA PLATER, DOUG SWEET and JOSEPH PLANTA. 

Bonus: PATRICK DION wrote in with another correct answer: “The Flying Circus.”

Monday’s question: Another nickname head-scratcher: What did critics dub Parliamentary News Service (PNS), the satellite TV service used by the Progressive Conservative Party to reach viewers outside of Ottawa without having to deal with the pesky Parliamentary Press Gallery?

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Emma Anderson and Luiza Ch. Savage.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

 

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