Time is short in the 44th Parliament

From: POLITICO Ottawa Playbook - Monday Jan 29,2024 11:04 am
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Ottawa Playbook

By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Kyle Duggan

Presented by Amazon Canada

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Welcome to Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it.

In today’s edition: 

→ The House is back and the pre-election calendar is already tightening.

→ The foreign interference public inquiry is in session today.

→ The U.K.'s tech secretary lands in Toronto for a three-day, three-city tour.

IN MEMORIAM

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh speaks during the state funeral for Ed Broadbent in Ottawa on Sunday.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh speaks during the state funeral for former leader and party statesman Ed Broadbent at Carleton Dominion-Chalmers Centre in Ottawa on Sunday. “We will never forget him," Singh said. "And Ed, we won’t let you down. And you’re still who I want to be when I grow up.” | Sean Kilpatrick, The Canadian Press

FINAL FAREWELL — Manitoba Premier WAB KINEW called the late great ED BROADBENT “a relentless force for good.”

NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH said: “We are so fortunate that he chose to spend his life in pursuit of his vision and his hope of justice and fairness for all.”

Broadbent died earlier this month at the age of 87. Follow this link to a Google doc where we gathered tributes to the politician and elder statesman best known as Ed.

Friends, family and political colleagues paid tribute to his life and legacy during a state funeral held in Ottawa on Sunday afternoon. NOJOUD AL MALLEES of The Canadian Press has details.

DRIVING THE DAY


IT'S ON — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU set a March 4 by-election date in Durham, Ont., where Conservative favorite JAMIL JIVANI takes on Liberal candidate ROBERT ROCK, a one-time Tory hopeful in the same riding. Trudeau's targeting of Jivani in a recent speech to caucus had Conservatives everywhere referencing "30 Rock".

COUNTDOWN CITY — It's about to get sloppy on Parliament Hill, where six weeks of blissful silence, new year's resolutions and family time will do zilch to create any residual warm and fuzzies. There's too much drama to play out before politicians enter pre-election mode.

Even if this Parliament goes the distance to 2025, the odds of which teeter between likely and uncertain, party war rooms will be revving their engines in no time.

Don't believe us? Look at the clock.

→ Days until the next election: 630, max.

This might be a lifetime in politics, but cut out extended seasonal breaks and constituency weeks. The parliamentary calendar is already tightening for a government that wants to make laws and a Conservative opposition bent on thwarting them at every turn.

→ Sitting days until the next election: Less than 200.

Sure, a government can ram through a lot with that kind of time.

But when MPs adjourn for the summer, they'll return to a DONALD TRUMP-sized distraction south of the border. Trump v. Biden will dominate the post-Labor Day discourse until voting day in November. There goes any attention of the nation on Canadian politics.

And even if the Liberal-NDP governing deal goes the distance into 2025, Team Trudeau will officially pivot to pre-election mode. Next year's federal budget could be a glorified campaign pamphlet. Less governing, more electioneering.

The best way to think about the parliamentary calendar? Focus on the next six months.

→ Sitting days until July: 69, max.

 

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OBSTACLES AHEAD — Sixty-nine in-House daily news cycles at most stand between MPs and the summer break. Every party has problems to solve.

Here's what to watch, starting now:

Liberal caucus

The best thing to happen to the governing caucus in December was the 30-hour voting marathon that Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE forced as part of a broader effort to derail the Liberal agenda until the holiday break.

Conservatives won the first night of that standoff in the House when Poilievre strolled in just before 1 a.m. to huge applause. But the Tory leader vanished for much of the next day, giving packed Liberal benches the opportunity to chant “Where is Pierre?” before the final vote.

Liberals needed it. They'd spent the fall divided in part over an unpopular carbon tax and intractable views on the Israel-Hamas war. That conflict has not abated, and those divisions will not dissolve. Liberals insist their caucus is representative of Canada, a country with no clear consensus writ large on the Middle East. Trudeau last week described tough internal convos as "a strength, not a weakness."

But the caucus's spectrum of views hasn't offered clear direction to a government criticized for muddled positions on the war.

→ Legislative hangovers: Bill C-234, a private member's bill that would take the federal carbon levy off various farming activities, is top of the House agenda today. The Senate amended the bill in December for the House's consideration.

Last month, the government thwarted an attempted Tory vote marathon on C-50, the sustainable jobs act focused on the energy transition. That lengthy list of 205 Tory amendments is still on the notice paper — and could force hours of votes.

The Tories also recently placed five "concurrence" motions on the House order paper — another attempt to gum up the House by forcing debate on committee reports.

Conservative votes

On complex policy debates, it's usually Liberals who end up on their heels. One knock against the federal carbon levy is it's nearly impossible to describe it in a few sentences. Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT has conceded that Poilievre's "axe the tax" slogan is an easier sell.

But on two key issues, Tories enter 2024 having to explain themselves.

→ Ukraine: They voted against a revamped trade deal with Ukraine, excoriating an apparent carbon tax tucked into the text. There is no tax. Conservative MP SHUV MAJUMDAR explained his party's rationale to PAUL WELLS last year.

"[Canada] never had detailed discussions around how taxes would be aspirationally imposed in any jurisdiction, in any trade agreement," he said, accusing the Liberals of playing "garbage games" while European allies remain dependent on Russia's energy exports.

A reasonable argument. But who's doing the explaining now?

→ Replacement workers: Conservatives managed to get through 2023 without taking a solid position on C-58, the bill that would ban replacement workers during labor stoppages in federally regulated workplaces. Word is the issue split caucus, but the bill will come to a vote.

Conservatives intent on making inroads with blue-collar voters risk looking indecisive on a signature Liberal-NDP priority.

NDP red line

This is the winter and spring of pharmacare for New Democrats whose future campaign stump speeches depend on claiming credit for transformative policy. NDP MP DON DAVIES is pushing for a framework to eventually implement national pharmacare, but he doesn't expect big-ticket spending anytime soon.

The fate of the supply-and-confidence deal backstopping the NDP's support of the government on key House votes could depend on this single priority. Few insiders are predicting a premature end to the deal this spring, but the stakes are ratcheting up.

DAVID THURTON of CBC News reported Friday that New Democrats are pushing the government to "begin covering a handful of essential medicines" in advance of a broader program.

Singh recently described Liberals in rather unflattering terms on the file: "They are just slimy. They break their promises. They say one thing and they try to get out of it."

A March 1 deadline for introducing legislation that at least tip-toes into national pharmacare is four sitting weeks away. The bargaining window is narrowing.

THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING

INQUIRY MINDS — Playbook will be in the room for the opening moments of the Public Inquiry into Foreign Interference in Federal Electoral Processes and Democratic Institutions — that's PIFI for short.

Today's hearing, the first of five this week before a second round in March, gets underway in Salon "A" of the Library and Archives Canada HQ at 395 Wellington St.

The room is named after MARGARET AVISON, a librarian and social worker who wrote award-winning poetry on the side. Here's a stanza from "A Seed of History" that got us thinking about the inquiry about to unfold.

One brilliantly cold Alberta day
the teacher wrote on the blackboard
'1928' — for the first time. Everything was changing
so that the blue-and-pink map of Canada
still on the wall was a welcome
constant, in the excitement of this
January newness.

— Today's agenda: Opening statements, mostly, from Commissioner MARIE-JOSÉE HOGUE, commission counsel, and participants with standing.

— The rest of the week's witnesses: Université de Montréal's PIERRE TRUDEL, University of Calgary's MICHAEL NESBITT, Carleton University's LEAH WEST, former CSIS Director RICHARD FADDEN, former CSIS assistant director ALAN JONES, CSIS director DAVID VIGNEAULT, Communications Security Establishment deputy chief of signals intelligence ALIA TAYYEB, deputy national security and intelligence adviser DAN ROGERS and Public Safety Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC.

Further reading: The Toronto Star's STEPHANIE LEVITZ on what's at stake at PIFI.

 

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MIND ON THE MONEY — It’s no secret the Conservatives have the fullest political war chest in town, nor that they consistently out-fundraise the governing party. But they could be about to outdo themselves this week — or at least win some wow-factor buzz.

Federal political parties must file their last quarterly financing report for 2023 this week and, as CHRISTIAN PAAS-LANG wrote for CBC News in November, the CPC appears on track to break their record.

— Why that’s rare: The party tends to set records in election years. The last record was set in 2019 at C$30.9 million.

Under fundraising giant PIERRE POILIEVRE, the party raised C$23 million during the first three quarters — as much as it brought in for all of 2022.

— Beyond the topline: ÉRIC GRENIER popped open the hood in August on the first six months of regional data, and found the Conservatives’ supercharged fundraising figures indicate Poilievre is both energizing and expanding his base.

THE MAID CLOCK — Time is running out before a controversial deadline on medical assistance in dying. On March 17, eligibility for the procedure will automatically expand to people who suffer solely from mental illness.

The government has repeatedly extended a temporary exclusion of mental illness from the list of eligibility criteria. Doing so again would require legislation.

Health Minister MARK HOLLAND has only four sitting weeks until that deadline, which means introducing and prioritizing a bill in short order — and shepherding it through a House where debate hours are in high demand.

Where the leaders are

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the National Capital Region. Trudeau will meet British Columbia Premier DAVID EBY at 4:30 p.m. (Eby will separately meet "federal government members" at 10:30 a.m.)

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND will hold a 12:45 p.m. press conference on the government's economic plan. She'll be joined by Housing Minister SEAN FRASER, Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE, Treasury Board President ANITA ANAND and Immigration Minister MARC MILLER. Freeland will also attend question period.

HALLWAY CONVERSATION

Britain's Michelle Donelan, Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology, right, greets Canada's Francois-Pillipe Champange, Minister for Innovation, Science and Industry as he arrives at the AI Safety Summit in Bletchley Park, Milton Keynes, England, Wednesday, Nov. 1, 2023. (AP Photo/Alastair Grant)

Britain's Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology Michelle Donelan, at right, welcomes Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne to the AI Safety Summit in Bletchley Park, England, in November 2023. | AP

THE BRITISH ARE COMING — MICHELLE DONELAN, the U.K.'s secretary of state for science, innovation and technology, wakes up in Toronto today to launch a three-day Canada tour focused on AI collaboration.

The tech secretary’s whirlwind visit will also hop to Ottawa and Montreal, where she’ll meet AI academic YOSHUA BENGIO — the pen-holder of an upcoming report for the U.K. government on the state of AI safety.

— Industry stops: Donelan will visit the offices of Google DeepMind and Cohere.

— Announceables: Tomorrow, Donelan meets Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE for an AI catchup. They'll launch an “expert exchange” between the two countries that will fund travel, visa and moving costs for 35 AI researchers between Canada and the U.K.

Donelan spoke to Playbook and POLITICO U.K. tech reporter TOM BRISTOW ahead of the visit. (We spoke before the Brits hit pause on free-trade talks with Canada.)

This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

Are you watching Canada's AI legislation, Bill C-27 , and are there any lessons you're learning from Champagne's experience?

We'll be talking to Minister Champagne about that and a host of other topics, and we're keeping abreast of the situation across the world and different governments' responses. There isn't a one-size-fits-all. Every country needs to carve out the response that is right for their economy and approaches.

It's important that we utilize the wealth of regulation and regulators that we have across the board already, and we make sure that they have the skills, the resources and the understanding to be able to respond to what is coming and what is already in existence.

That's why we're not just rushing to legislate. Instead, we're trying to get a balance between our approach on safety and our approach on innovation, which we think is absolutely crucial if we're going to drive the jobs in the U.K., spur the industry on to innovate, and get those benefits for our public services and for our businesses.

You hosted an AI summit last year that pushed governments to prioritize AI. How difficult is it to think domestically and globally on such a rapidly moving sector?

We wanted to bring everybody together to ensure that everybody was prioritizing this agenda and that we were working together to get a handle on it. This is an emerging area, the fastest emerging technology we've ever seen. To be able to to grip those risks and put in place those necessary guardrails, we need to be sharing expertise, we need to be sharing knowledge, we need to be working as a team on this agenda.

MEDIA ROOM

— Top of POLITICO this hour: ‘F---ing lunatics': Deadly Jordan attacks spur open GOP feud.

— “Canadian institutions have a choice: to transcend political debates, or to be consumed by them,” STEPHEN MARCHE writes in the Globe.

RACHEL AIELLO of CTV News reports: “Trudeau and Singh's teams are quietly planning electoral reform legislation.” Political scientist DUANE BRATT points out in a thread on X that many of these proposed changes “were explicitly part" of the Liberal-NDP supply and confidence agreement.

— Executive director of The Hub RUDYARD GRIFFITHS had strong words on the latest Roundtable pod for any Conservatives who took delight in TUCKER CARLSON’s gigs in Alberta. “When you’re sitting in the hall with those 8,000 people cheering and jeering at the idea of [Steven] Guilbeault getting a target on him, remember: You put cash in Tucker’s pockets. He sold you. You’re a product,” Griffiths said. “Don’t be naive about this whole industry, these anger factories on the right. You are chum — grist for highly profitable online businesses and monetization models, like those events in Calgary and Edmonton. I’m sorry, it’s the truth. “

— The Star’s RAISA PATEL went door knocking in Edmonton Centre with NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH. “In Edmonton — where the Liberals hold one seat, the NDP two, and the Conservatives six — the New Democrats see a perfect opening,” she writes. (338Canada currently projects the New Democrats holding onto both seats, but making no further inroads in the city.)

— Also in the Star, ALTHIA RAJ writes: “There’s much more to the Emergencies Act ruling than a rebuke of Justin Trudeau's government.”

PROZONE

For POLITICO Pro s, our latest policy newsletter by ZI-ANN LUM: Canada loses a trade bragging right

In other news for Pro readers:

JOE MANCHIN vows LNG hearing following Biden's export pause.

WTO deal to resolve U.S. dispute settlement grievances in doubt.

AI can help gas cars cut emissions. But privacy concerns persist.

California lawmaker behind journalism bill is ‘optimistic’.

U.S. Department of Energy picks 49 projects to slash industrial CO2.

Playbookers

Birthdays: HBD to Liberal MP ADAM VAN KOEVERDEN and to ANUSHKA KURIAN, who starts tomorrow as Rogers' senior manager of government relations.

HBD + 2 to HARTLEY WITTEN, press sec to Labor Minister SEAMUS O'REGAN. Belated greetings also to writer and author DAVID MOSCROP, and Impact Public Affairs' DYLAN HELLWIG.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way. 

Spotted: Conservative MP BRANDEN LESLIE introducing his newborn, MAEVE GRACE LESLIE: “More than ever, I’m reminded that my duty as an MP isn't just to think about today, but to plan for tomorrow. Now I know exactly why we are doing it.”

PMO senior adviser SUPRIYA DWIVEDI and conservative commentator RAHIM MOHAMED, arguing about we're not quite sure what on X … Dwivedi also took on JENNI BYRNE and got sexually explicit with the Conservative meme-factory CANADA PROUD.

Trudeau named entrepreneur MOHAMMAD AL ZAIBAK to the Senate, filling an Ontario vacancy.

Winnipeg South Centre MP BEN CARR, in a Jets jersey to watch AUSTON MATTHEWS score his 40th goal of the season.

Timmins-James Bay MP CHARLIE ANGUS celebrating Robbie Burns Day at the Haileybury Legion: “An incredible night of music and feasting.”

A “stay tuned” promo for DIMITRI SOUDAS — on FRED DELOREY’s iPolitics pod this morning to “demystify Quebec’s current political landscape.”

Movers and shakers: Former Toronto city councilor KAREN STINTZ, spotted recently at a Conservative fundraiser, is expected to seek the party nomination in Eglinton-Lawrence — a potential midtown battleground in the next election. The Star's DAVID RIDER got the scoop.

Elsewhere in town, DONALD STEWART is the Tory candidate in the upcoming Toronto-St. Paul's by-election. Stewart once served a stint as managing director of JENNI BYRNE + Associates Capital Markets.

RANDALL ZALAZAR, a longtime aide to Liberal MP GEORGE CHAHAL (dating to Chahal's time as a Calgary city councilor), starts today as the Canadian Chamber of Commerce's director of government relations.

In memoriam: Former Nova Scotia MLA and Speaker GEORGE DOUCET has died. From his obituary: “George retired many times, but it never stuck for long.”

 

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  4. Thousands of Amazon employees have participated in Career Choice, which empowers them to learn new skills in industries including transportation, technology and logistics.
  5. Amazon MGM Studios contributed $1.4 billion in estimated value added to the Canada GDP between 2021 and 2022, with more than 30 scripted and unscripted productions during this period.

 
ON THE HILL

Find House committees here.

Keep track of Senate committees here.

— Slovak Republic President ZUZANA ČAPUTOVÁ arrives in Ottawa for a four-day state visit, including a delegation of 28 business representatives from energy and technology companies.

9:30 a.m. Canadian Labor Congress President BEA BRUSKE will hold a press conference in West Block to put pressure on the government to quickly pass Bill C-50 and Bill C-58.

10 a.m. Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY, Deputy Leader JONATHAN PEDNEAULT and MP MIKE MORRICE also hold a press conference in West Block on Bill C-50. They'll also talk legislative priorities in the days ahead.

11 a.m. The House justice committee will interrupt its study of Bill C-40 to focus instead on the merits of launching a study into “the prime minister’s failure to fill judicial vacancies.”

11 a.m. The House national defense committee will play host to four department officials from foreign affairs and national defense for a briefing on the Indo-Pacific region.

11 a.m. The House government operations committee will meet to discuss “committee business” fit for public broadcast before taking 30 minutes to talk in-camera.

11:30 a.m. Employment Minister RANDY BOISSONNAULT will hold court at a Canadian Club of Ottawa event at the National Arts Centre. His keynote will be on the future of work.

3:30 p.m. Energy and Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON will headline the House natural resources committee and take questions on Bill C-49.

3:30 p.m. The House public safety committee will start its meeting with a technical briefing on Bill C-26 behind closed doors. The cameras will turn on in the second half when MPs launch a study on the same bill.

3:30 p.m. The House human resources committee will meet to continue taking Conservative MP ROSEMARIE FALK’s private member’s bill, C-318, through clause-by-clause consideration.

6:30 p.m. It’s academics’ day at the special committee on the Canada-China relationship featuring six professors and China program directors from across the country.

Behind closed doors: The House veterans affairs committee has “committee business” to discuss; ditto for the House foreign affairs committee; the House official languages committee will meet to review a draft copy of their study on increased Francophone immigration; the House health committee will go over a draft report of their study on the Patented Medicine Prices Review Board.

We're tracking every major political event of 2024 on a mega-calendar. Send us events and download the calendar yourself for Google and other clients .

TRIVIA

Friday’s answer: According to revamped lobbying guidelines the maximum value of a “low-value gift” for public office holders is C$40.

Props to SARAH ANSON-CARTWRIGHT, LAURA JARVIS, BOB GORDON, MATT DELISLE, PAUL MCCARTHY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, WILL BULMER, JIM CAMPBELL, ALYSON FAIR and JOHN ECKER. 

Today’s question: On this date in 2002, GEORGE W. BUSH deployed the phrase “axis of evil” in his State of the Union address. Who is credited with coining that term?

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

 

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