FREQUENT FLYER — Saudi Arabia is a long way to go for a photo-op. Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY’s two-day stop in Riyadh last week produced a 128-word press release and a photo of her handshake with Saudi Foreign Minister FAISAL BIN FARHAN AL SAUD. From the Canadian readout: Joly “welcomed the progress” in normalizing Canada-Saudi bilateral relations. A safe comment. There was talk about advancing peace and security. And there was a mention of the role Canada could play in helping the Gulf state achieve its domestic Vision 2030 agenda to use oil revenues to transform the country’s economy beyond petrostate status. (China has interest in a role, too.) Another safe, albeit strategically vague, comment. — Trip log: Joly made stops in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Israel, Jerusalem and the West Bank. Cabmin YA'ARA SAKS joined Joly in Israel. Joly wraps her Middle East tour today with no plans for a media availability. — Invitation to guesswork: Joly did not deliver a speech before or during her Middle East trip, inviting questions about the point of it given that the generic statements in the readouts could have been delivered on a Teams call. Diplomacy is a bit tricky for Canada in the Middle East given the relatively fewer number of Parliaments in the region. There are 13 multilateral and bilateral parliamentary associations for MPs and senators to be involved with and none have a specific Middle East focus. Joly is expected to say more about her trip when the House returns. In the meantime, Playbook asked THOMAS JUNEAU, associate professor of public and international affairs at University of Ottawa, for insight on what she may have accomplished. “I’ve seen the tweets. Very nice statements,” Juneau said. “But more fundamentally, what was discussed and what is Canada trying to achieve? Is not any more clear to me than it is to you.” — Long shadows: Talk of normalizing bilateral relations exposes awkward terrain in Canada given Saudi Arabia’s track record on human rights. Discussion about Saudi Arabia has been a live wire for Canadian politicians for years, especially after STEPHEN HARPER’s Conservative government signed an arms export deal in 2014. Footage suggests the Canadian-made light armoured vehicles (LAVs) have been used by Saudi forces in crackdowns against its own citizens. Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU upheld the LAV deal amid fraught domestic debate and downplayed any political talk of bilateral relations. — Fresh thaw: Canada and Saudi Arabia restored diplomatic relations last year after a five-year dispute sparked by a Canadian government tweet supporting women’s rights. The 2018 murder of journalist JAMAL KHASHOGGI, which earned condemnation from parliamentarians on all sides, solidified Canada’s position. Sanctions came next. But recent tectonic shifts in geopolitics, from Russia’s war in Ukraine to fallout from the Israel-Hamas war, has forced Ottawa to look anew at old frontiers. Last May, Riyadh appointed AMAL BINT YAHYA AL MOALLIMI to Ottawa. Canada, in turn, sent JEAN-PHILIPPE LINTEAU to be its envoy in Saudi Arabia. Linteau has been hustling all over the country meeting women’s groups and business people. “He's also meeting a lot of educational institutions, which to me is very interesting and very important,” Juneau said. Before relations soured in 2018, the two countries saw quiet success in educational exchange programs and Riyadh funded roughly 15,000 Saudi students to study in Canada. — Context is key: Canada’s overtures come at a time when Saudi Arabia is booming. Juneau pointed to major social and economic reforms in the country — as well as in its foreign policy — have changed significantly in the past 3-5 years. — Aptitude tests: The image Canadians have of Saudi Arabia is five to seven years out of date, Juneau said. It has not moved past the embargo on Qatar, its spat with Canada and war in Yemen. “One thing that was a bit smaller, but to me might be the craziest is they actually kidnapped the Lebanese prime minister, slapped him around and forced him to resign on TV,” Juneau said. “That's insane. Like, that is completely insane. That's changed.” — Follow the money: Saudi Arabia is throwing a lot of money into soft power to change its reputation (LIV Golf and S-pop, anyone?). Juneau said that Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN understands that the gerontocracy that ruled for decades before he took power was not fulfilling the ambitions of an increasingly young and frustrated population. It’s partly true the money being poured into concerts, sports and wrestling can be dismissed as sports-washing, green-washing, he said, but that would miss the point. “All of the changes that he's making in sports and entertainment and tourism — and tourism not just for foreigners but tourism for Saudis, too — opening beach resorts on the Red Sea … These are real changes that are, to some extent, popular among young Saudis, who are a significant majority of the population. … It's not just the facade.” Democratic reform, he added, “that's not going to happen.”
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