Playbook PM: Manchin draws a line

From: POLITICO Playbook - Thursday Sep 30,2021 05:52 pm

Sep 30, 2021

By Rachael Bade, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

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SCHUMER’S SECRET AGREEMENT WITH MANCHIN — Burgess Everett this morning has the hottest scoop of this entire reconciliation saga to date: a proposed deal Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) made to Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER for a $1.5 trillion reconciliation bill, laid out in a one-page, July 28 document signed by both men.

Why this matters: This story comes as progressives have publicly fumed about broken promises by their colleagues. Many members took Democratic leadership’s proposed two-track process to mean the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill (aka BIF) would pass in tandem with a $3.5 trillion reconciliation package that contained much of the party’s broader policy agenda. (In fact, that impression is why many progressives agreed to BIF in the first place.)

The document shows that even as progressives operated under that assumption, Schumer knew in July that Manchin was uncomfortable with a $3.5 trillion package — he wanted something less than half that size.

“The West Virginia senator has been distributing the document to Democratic colleagues and leaders in recent days to underscore that he has outlined his red lines,” Burgess writes. “Senator Manchin does not guarantee that he will vote for the final reconciliation legislation if it exceeds the conditions outlined in this agreement,” the document reads in bold text.

As WaPo’s Mike DeBonis tweeted: “Short term implication: Chuck’s got some ’splaining to do.”

The agreement refutes progressives’ suggestions that Manchin has been unclear or elusive about what he wants in reconciliation. Indeed, the document lays out many specifics — not that many in the party will like them …

What Manchin wants:

•	A $1.5 trillion top line for the reconciliation package.
•	A corporate rate of 25%, a top income tax rate of 39.6% and a capital gains tax rate of 28%.
•	For any revenue from the bill “exceeding” $1.5 trillion to be spent on deficit reduction.
•	Means-testing so that new federal programs are aimed toward low-income Americans.
•	Jurisdiction, as chair of the Senate Energy Committee, over any clean energy standards (despite being from a heavily coal-reliant state).
•	“Innovation not elimination” of energy sources (read: continued support for coal) and support for technology capturing carbon emissions from power plants to store underground (which is good for coal).
•	Assurances that fossil fuel subsidies won’t be repealed if new credits are issued for renewable power, and that any electric vehicle subsidies be extended to also include hydrogen-powered vehicles (which is good for coal).
•	For debate on the package not to start until Oct. 1.

To be clear: Schumer’s office says that in signing the document, the majority leader was not agreeing to the terms, but acknowledging that he understood what the West Virginia Democrat would accept in a package — though Schumer wrote below his signature that he would “try to dissuade Joe on some of these.”

Must-read quote from Manchin, speaking to a gaggle of reporters this afternoon: “I’ve never been a liberal in any way, shape or … form. There’s no one who’s ever thought I was. I’ve been governor, I’ve been secretary of state, I’ve been in the state legislature, I’ve been a U.S. senator — and I have voted pretty consistently all my whole life. I don’t fault anyone who believes that they’re much more progressive and much more liberal. God bless them! … I guess for them to get theirs, elect more liberals.” Pic of the swarm of reporters around Manchin

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PELOSI OPTIMISTIC ABOUT BIF ODDS — It sure seems like Speaker NANCY PELOSI still doesn’t have the votes to pass the BIF today as intended. But at a press conference this morning, she sounded optimistic about the chances of passing it by the end of the day.

“I think we’re in a good place right now,” Pelosi said. “We’re making progress. … I’m only envisioning taking it up and winning it.”

But there’s something else she said that has set Washington aflutter: Amid progressive fears that if the BIF passes they could end up with no reconciliation bill, Pelosi tried to reassure that a reconciliation package will “for sure” happen, calling it the “culmination of my service in Congress.”

— Hold up: Does that mean Pelosi is retiring? Asked whether the “culmination” comment meant she was coming to the end of her tenure, Pelosi said, “Get out of here.”

“Think positively, OK?” she concluded as she put her mask back on.

— On the same page as Pelosi: Rep. JOSH GOTTHEIMER (D-N.J.), who emerged from the speaker’s office shortly after noon and declared “it’s happening today; we’re moving forward,” per Nicholas Wu.

There wasn’t much optimism elsewhere in Washington, though.

— House Majority Leader STENY HOYER, asked if he was confident about BIF passing today: “Nope.”

— Energy Secretary JENNIFER GRANHOLM said on CNN that “it’s not some major cataclysm if there isn’t a vote today.” (She added that “a version” of reconciliation will get passed at some point.)

— Meanwhile, the White House doesn’t mind a bit that progressives are threatening to tank the BIF, seeing it as a valuable tool to force Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (D-Ariz.) and Manchin to get on board with reconciliation. Natasha Korecki and Chris Cadelago write that “the idea that [the administration] would be comfortable with an effort by a portion of its own party to delay and put into question one of the president’s most important initiatives would have been unheard of in previous administrations. These, however, are not normal times.”

HEADS UP — Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN this morning said she would support eliminating the debt ceiling.

Good Thursday afternoon. Today is ridiculous. But it’s ALMOST Friday …

RECONCILIATION

In light of the Manchin top line for a reconciliation package in the $1.5 trillion range, where do things go from here?

— Three ways that Dems could downsize their ambitions to win over the centrist Senate holdouts, via NYT’s Jonathan Weisman and Emily Cochrane: (1) use budget tricks to trim costs a bit; (2) shrink it way down to a $900 billion extension of the American Rescue Plan’s health and child care benefits; or (3) focus on extending those benefits plus big climate change provisions for a $1.5 trillion middle-ground option.

— Count aggressive prescription drug pricing reforms (likely) out of the reconciliation bill. Alice Miranda Ollstein and Megan Wilson report that in order to win moderates’ support, Dems are considering dropping “efforts to have the government directly negotiate the prices for medicines in private insurance plans and make fewer drugs subject to negotiations in Medicare.” But if the ongoing negotiations shrink the scope of that plan, it could provoke progressives’ ire — and undermine an important revenue source in the bill: the savings in drug costs.

— Education Secretary MIGUEL CARDONA told our Juan Perez Jr. on the road in Detroit that he’s worried that the free community college proposal will get axed from the bill.

SINEMATOGRAPHY — Back home in Phoenix, NYT’s Jack Healy and Emily Cochrane find that Democratic base voters are frustrated with Sinema’s centrism and especially concerned about what her views could mean for climate change. Amid regular protests outside her office, there’s talk of a vote of no confidence or a primary challenge in 2024 — but there are also plenty of Arizonans just tuning out the noise and confusion from Washington.

— NBC’s Alex Seitz-Wald and Sahil Kapur round up multiple ongoing efforts to primary Sinema, including some backed by well-funded progressive networks.

— Newsweek’s Adrian Carrasquillo scoops that a PAC urging Rep. RUBEN GALLEGO (D-Ariz.) to mount a primary effort against Sinema already has $1 million in commitments. CHUCK ROCHA’s leading the effort.

INTRODUCING CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO’s new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. GET A FIRST LOOK AT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.

CONGRESS

THE POWER OF ONE — Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) blocked rapid passage of the bill to spend $1 billion on Israel’s Iron Dome defense system because he wants to pay for it with aid originally intended for Afghanistan, Andrew Desiderio, Alexander Ward and Anthony Adragna scooped. (Yes, that’s the bill progressives in the House almost derailed — to much GOP criticism — last week.)

MUCK READ — A new watchdog report from Issue One and Campaign Legal Center finds dozens of members of Congress exploiting leadership PAC loopholes to spend campaign contributions on luxury travel without breaking the law. NBC LX’s Noah Pransky reports that the worst offenders include Paul, Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) and Reps. Gottheimer, SETH MOULTON (D-Mass.), GWEN MOORE (D-Wis.) and MIKE KELLY (R-Pa.). Former Rep. GEORGE HOLDING (R-N.C.) was the biggest outlier last cycle, spending just 2% of his leadership PAC revenue on making donations to other candidates and political groups.

ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL — Roll Call’s Jessica Wehrman has a pretty striking story about Rep. DON YOUNG’s (R-Alaska) participation in the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee — or lack thereof. The last time he voted in a markup for the committee was March 2019, even as the committee has recently worked through major surface transportation legislation. He’s taken part in just one Natural Resources Committee roll call vote since September 2019. “I am working,” Young said.

AFTERNOON WATCH — Our colleagues Matt Wuerker, Dan Ashwood and Krystal Campos have a great update to a classic “Schoolhouse Rock!” segment. Here’s “I’m Just a Bill,” the 2021 edition.

THE WHITE HOUSE

GETTING BENCHED — The White House put out 10 new federal judicial nominations this morning, bringing Biden’s total so far to 53. With a continuing focus on racial, gender and professional diversity, the list includes several people who would be historic firsts. CNN’s Jeremy Diamond breaks down the nominees.

POLITICS ROUNDUP

2022 WATCH — Could Biden’s slide in the polls have reached its nadir? A new NPR poll finds his approval rating ticking back up — and, in particularly good news for his party, Democrats up 8 points on the generic congressional ballot. But NPR notes that it’s geographically polarized — and Republicans lead in the South and Midwest, where much of the House battle will be fought.

AD WARS — The 2022 election cycle could see a record-breaking $8.9 billion spent on midterm ads, per a new report from AdImpact. Spending thus far this year has already jumped 61% from the same point in 2019. More from Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser

TRUMP CARDS

LATEST ALFA BANK TWIST — After JOHN DURHAM indicated that four computer scientists who originally theorized a DONALD TRUMP-Alfa Bank link didn’t really believe it, prompting widespread conservative outrage, the people in question are pushing back, NYT’s Charlie Savage and Adam Goldman report.

THE PANDEMIC

SIGNAL BOOST — The Biden administration is divided over how widely to roll out booster shots of the Covid-19 vaccine, Erin Banco reports. Some officials want to focus on preventing severe disease and hospitalization, while others want to give boosters to everyone to protect against mild-to-moderate disease as well. (Of course, this is somewhat academic: Plenty of folks are already getting boosters outside of CDC recommendations.) A year and a half into this, “officials said they are still struggling to develop a long-term pandemic strategy.”

POLL OF THE DAY — Biden’s vaccine (or negative test) mandate gets a thumbs up from 51% of Americans, compared to 34% who disapprove of it, in a new AP/NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll. That breaks down along familiar partisan lines.

STRIKING STATISTIC — Covid-19 death rates in rural areas of the U.S. are now twice as high as in urban areas, Kaiser Health News’ Lauren Weber reports.

HOPEFUL SIGN — Covid cases are down by a quarter in the U.S. over the past two weeks, per Axios.

BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

PULLOUT FALLOUT — The Pentagon and State Department are sniping at each other about who recommended what timing during the final August withdrawal from Afghanistan, Lara Seligman reports. After Axios reported that Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. MARK MILLEY blamed State for waiting too long, Foggy Bottom officials told Lara “that Milley never pushed for an earlier evacuation in the days before Kabul fell.”

IT’S ALL IN YOUR HEAD? — A secret report from a State Department advisory board concludes that the “Havana syndrome” reports are likelier to have been caused by insects than by directed energy weapons and says that “‘psychogenic’ mass psychology effects may have played a role,” BuzzFeed’s Dan Vergano reports.

POLICY CORNER

DOUBLE-EDGED GUN — Parts of the U.S. military are increasingly embedding technology in their guns to make it easier to keep track of them — even as it poses possible security risks, an AP investigation by James LaPorta, Justin Pritchard and Kristin Hall finds in the second installment of their AWOL Weapons series. The RFID tags could help “even low-tech enemies … identify U.S. troops at distances far greater than advertised by contractors who install the systems,” they write.

Some Pentagon strategy planners weren’t even aware this is happening. A spokesperson told the AP that the services weren’t tagging guns due to security risks — and then, once the AP showed DOD that some Army and Air Force units are indeed using the technology, “the Pentagon revised its statement and said it allows service branches to explore innovative solutions.”

SCOTUS WATCH — The Supreme Court today said it will take up a case involving Boston’s refusal to have a Christian flag fly outside City Hall, Josh Gerstein reports. Other cases it agreed to hear include Cruz’s challenge to a campaign finance law, sentencing reductions under the 2018 criminal justice reform bill, and art stolen by Nazis.

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

THE UNEMPLOYMENT PICTURE — New jobless claims rose again this week to 362,000, higher than expected — a sign that “hiring may be slowing at a time when concerns are growing about the pace of the economic recovery and the impact the pandemic may have heading into autumn,” per CNBC.

SHORT SUPPLY — WaPo’s David Lynch in Los Angeles and Joliet, Ill., takes a big-picture look at the country’s broken supply chains, which he attributes not just to the pandemic but to “weaknesses in the nation’s transport plumbing: investment shortfalls at key ports, controversial railroad industry labor cuts, and a chronic failure by key players to collaborate.”

IMMIGRATION FILES — Thousands of Haitians were deported amid a surge at the southern border this month, but thousands more were allowed to stay in the U.S. — especially if they had loved ones already here. NYT’s Miriam Jordan, reporting from Hamilton Township, N.J., examines what happens next for this group, through the story of one family that arrived months earlier than the Texas crush and the church that’s helped them.

PLAYBOOKERS

MEDIA MOVE — Lulu Garcia-Navarro is joining the NYT’s opinion audio team “to anchor a new podcast that will explore the personal side of opinion.” She most recently hosted NPR’s “Weekend Edition.” Announcement

TRANSITIONS — Megan Gall is launching Blockwell Consulting LLC. She’s a quantitative political scientist who most recently was at the Leadership Conference Education Fund and is a Lawyers’ Committee and NAACP Legal Defense Fund alum. … Farida Mohamedshah will be SVP of scientific and regulatory affairs at the National Confectioners Association. She previously was director of food, health and nutrition at the Institute of Food Technologists.

BONUS BIRTHDAY: Jeff MacKinnon

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