Playbook PM: It’s still the Trump show

From: POLITICO Playbook - Friday Oct 15,2021 05:17 pm

Oct 15, 2021

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CLINTON UPDATE — Principal deputy press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE said aboard Air Force One that President JOE BIDEN plans to speak with the hospitalized former President BILL CLINTON later today. USA Today reports that Clinton “has been walking around, reading, texting and joking with hospital staff.”

THE SHOW THAT DOESN’T END — Nearly nine months after he left office, former President DONALD TRUMP remains the sun around which at least several of the American political system’s planets orbit. It’s not just his enduring influence atop the Republican Party, where he’s successfully marshaling an entire political operation to pivot some of its messaging toward his pet conspiracy theories; it’s also his irresistibility as a foil — and a turnout machine — for his opponents.

At the end of a very quiet week in Washington, as Biden heads to Connecticut to promote his agenda this afternoon, we got a few reminders of Trump’s enduring sway around the country:

— In Virginia, the Trump-era hangover and the ongoing chaos of the pandemic have contributed to voter fatigue, and Democrats are grappling with a lack of enthusiasm among their base in the gubernatorial election, NYT’s Jonathan Martin reports. To juice turnout, TERRY MCAULIFFE is trying to tie Republican nominee GLENN YOUNGKIN more closely to the former president — and it might be just the thing that helps him eke out a win. Among early voters J-Mart interviewed in Fairfax, few people were focused on policy specifics: Instead, “every McAuliffe voter cited Mr. Trump as a reason for supporting the Democrat.”

— In Nevada, a continuing Republican civil war precipitated by Trump’s ascent has plunged the state GOP into turmoil, David Siders reports . Lawsuits are flying between warring factions, a rebellion from the Trumpist wing has led to a mass resignation of Washoe County party officials, and in Clark, the state’s largest county, one group controls the GOP website while an opposing group is recognized by the state party. It’s all a microcosm of the broader fissures dividing Republicans, but David writes that the disputes in Nevada are “especially bitter and long-lasting” — and they could threaten the party’s prospects in the crucial swing state next year.

— What would Trump actually do if he mounted a successful comeback in the next presidential election? Meridith McGraw reports that the former president’s allies are hoping to turn his lies about 2020 into a policy agenda focused on election laws. The Trump-aligned America First Policy Institute foresees a potential “election integrity” package if states haven’t already passed enough of their own laws on the matter, though the details remain unclear at this point.

Happy Friday afternoon.

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POLITICS ROUNDUP

REDISTRICTING ROUNDUP — The Virginia redistricting commission today posted a new possible congressional district map, which Dave Wasserman calls “a dream GOP map that would give Republicans a chance to win 6/11 seats in a Biden +10 state.”

— Illinois Democrats unveiled their new map, which seeks to turn the state’s congressional delegation from a 13D-5R breakdown into 14D-3R as its numbers shrink. The Chicago Sun-Times’ Lynn Sweet has the details.

MUCK READ — The nobly named American Breast Cancer Coalition “appears to be a scheme to extract millions of dollars in donations, mostly from small contributors,” report The Daily Beast’s Roger Sollenberger and OpenSecrets’ Anna Massoglia . The political group-cum-charity is considered a “scam PAC,” but this one hasn’t registered with the FEC — instead it has (legally) registered as a 527 political group with the IRS. That’s part of a new trend of scammers shifting strategies to gain even more secrecy. The ABCC has raised more than $3.5 million.

CASH DASH — Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK (D-Ga.) raised $9.5 million in the third quarter, per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

— National Journal’s Kirk Bado rounds up the biggest Q3 hauls reported by House candidates so far. At the top of the list: Rep. LIZ CHENEY (R-Wyo.) and the woman who replaced her as GOP Conference chair, Rep. ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.).

THE WHITE HOUSE

FIRST LADY FILES — First lady JILL BIDEN is jumping onto the campaign trail today, stumping for McAuliffe and New Jersey Gov. PHIL MURPHY, ABC’s Quinn Scanlan and Molly Nagle report.

THE MIDTERM PREDICAMENT — Much of the Democratic Party’s conventional wisdom these days seems to be that passing their infrastructure and reconciliation bills is key to saving their political prospects in next year’s midterms. The Atlantic’s Ronald Brownstein takes a look at history and contemporary focus groups and concludes: Don’t count on it. “The lesson of history is that it is extremely difficult for presidents to translate legislative success in their first year into political success in the midterm elections of their second year,” Brownstein writes — though they can help with reelection bids two years later. And voters today seem to care much more about getting the pandemic under control than Build Back Better.

GAFFE ALERT — The L.A. Times’ Erin Logan and Noah Bierman break down what happened with a recent YouTube video where VP KAMALA HARRIS talked with kids at her residence about science and space. “It should have been the safest of political appearances,” but instead the video has grown controversial in the conservative media world amid revelations that the kids were paid actors. It’s not the first unforced error from Harris’ operation, and she “recently enlisted two veteran Democrats to help stabilize her communications efforts.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

IT’S OFFICIAL — Fully vaccinated foreigners will finally be able to enter the U.S. beginning Nov. 8, relaxing an unprecedented year-and-a-half-long set of restrictions, Reuters’ David Shepardson scooped. That aligns the U.S. more closely with other countries that opened up sooner. Still to be decided: what exemptions the U.S. might allow, particularly for children.

FROM RUSSIA, WITH LOVE — Russia said today that it pushed the USS Chafee out of its territorial waters in the Sea of Japan, with the two warships coming within 60 meters of each other, per Radio Free Europe.

HACK ATTACKS — $590 million in ransomware payments were reported in the U.S. in the first half of 2021, a higher total than the entirety of 2020, per WSJ’s Ian Talley. The new Treasury data accompanied guidance for how companies should protect themselves.

DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — Lawmakers from both parties are out with a new draft bill that would seek to address China’s economic coercion abroad by creating an interagency task force, per Axios’ Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian.

INTRODUCING CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO’s new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. GET A FIRST LOOK AT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.

PANDEMIC

BREAKING — The FDA is holding off on approving the Moderna Covid-19 vaccine for teens to review more data about whether it could lead in rare cases to the heart condition myocarditis, WSJ’s Felicia Schwartz scooped. “So far, the regulators haven’t determined whether there is an elevated risk … The delay could be several weeks, but the timing is unclear.”

POLICY CORNER

IMMIGRATION FILES — After the Supreme Court forced the Biden administration to restore the Trump-era “Remain in Mexico” policy, DHS said late Thursday that it’s preparing to do so by the middle of next month if Mexico assents to the change, WaPo’s Nick Miroff reports. “Biden officials told reporters Title 42 will remain the primary enforcement mechanism for illegal border crossings, regardless of whether Mexico allows for the reimplementation of” the Remain in Mexico policy.

— Harris’ emphasis on the Northern Triangle as part of her mission to address the root causes of migration to the U.S. has gotten more complicated as South American and Caribbean immigrants also swell the ranks at the border, CNN’s Priscilla Alvarez reports. “The Biden administration is looking at how it can apply its plan to tackle root causes of migration to the hemisphere, like matching people to jobs where there are labor shortages in the region.”

INFLATION WATCH — Rising rents are one of the drivers of high inflation, posing both policy and political problems for the Biden administration, writes NYT’s Jeanna Smialek. Rents have been buoyed by high demand thanks to the pandemic, as people looked for more space and higher home prices kept ownership out of reach for many Americans. Those and other factors “created a perfect storm” for rents, which could be particularly thorny for the Fed because they tend to move slowly and stay high.

CLIMATE FILES — A new White House report today is spelling out Wall Street-related climate change rules, “including forcing financial firms to more directly address the risks of climate change, creating new protections for savings and pension plans and making climate change more a factor in federal budgeting and procurement,” report WSJ’s Timothy Puko and Paul Kiernan . Such moves are widely considered less impactful than changes Congress could make through legislation, but the Biden administration is seeking to show progress ahead of the upcoming U.N. conference in Glasgow.

— BARACK OBAMA is also heading to Glasgow, planning to “meet with young activists and deliver remarks putting the threat of the climate crisis into broader context,” per CNN’s Jeff Zeleny and Kate Sullivan.

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

THE LATEST ARREST — Capitol Police officer MICHAEL RILEY was charged with obstruction of justice for allegedly telling an insurrectionist to delete relevant Facebook posts and messages. More from CNBC

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BEYOND THE BELTWAY

THE TEXAS LANDSCAPE — The Justice Department intends to ask the Supreme Court to overturn a 5th Circuit ruling that allowed Texas’ near-total abortion ban to stay in place, sending the controversial bill back to the high court.

— One under-discussed aspect of the law: It’s also made it next to impossible for many teens to terminate a pregnancy. In Texas, children under 18 have to get permission from a judge to get an abortion without parental consent/notice. But the new six-week timeline is usually too abbreviated for someone to go through that court process successfully in time, report AP’s Astrid Galvan and Lindsay Whitehurst.

— What’s behind the new DOJ investigation into conditions at Texas’ youth detention facilities? “[N]early a dozen staff members have been arrested on charges of sexual abuse against juveniles, and complaints about mayhem inside the facilities — gang wars, fights and suicide attempts — are common,” report NYT’s Edgar Sandoval and Tim Arango from San Antonio.

COURT WATCH — The latest installment of the WSJ’s investigation into federal judges’ hidden financial interests finds that 61 judges or their families traded stocks “of companies that were litigants in their courtrooms” while the cases were ongoing. Coulter Jones, Joe Palazzolo and James Grimaldi report that “[j]udges themselves appear to be at odds over whether it is OK to sell all of a stock and stay on a case.”

FOR YOUR RADAR — Parkland mass shooter NIKOLAS CRUZ is expected to plead guilty in court today on all counts instead of going to trial. More from WSVN

AFTERNOON READ — Sheriff MARK LAMB cuts quite a figure in Pinal County, Ariz., where he’s making a name for himself as a charismatic national player in a Trumpy mold: defending law enforcement, getting tough on immigration and enforcing laws he doesn’t like selectively. Jessica Pishko has a big POLITICO Magazine profile of Lamb, who says he doesn’t have higher political ambitions. “To spend time with Lamb is to realize just how far a lawman can drift from the law itself — and how little people seem to care, as long as he says the right stuff on TV.”

PLAYBOOKERS

Kasie Hunt underwent brain surgery to remove what ended up being a benign tumor, and still has several more weeks of recovery ahead.

SPOTTED at the Richard Nixon Foundation’s 2021 Architect of Peace Award ceremony at the Nixon Library on Thursday night, where former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former national security adviser Robert O’Brien were jointly honored for their work in the Trump administration: Rep. Young Kim (R-Calif.), Pete and Gayle Wilson, Hugh Hewitt, John Campbell, Jon Voight, Mary Hart, Pat Cipollone and Burt Sugarman. Pics

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Ed Chung is now VP of initiatives at the Vera Institute of Justice. He most recently was at the Center for American Progress, and is a DOJ and White House alum.

TRANSITIONS — Lyle Goldstein is joining Defense Priorities to lead a new Asia Engagement program. He previously was a research professor at the U.S. Naval War College. … Erin Robinson is now director of outreach and strategic campaigns at the Georgia Budget and Policy Institute. She previously was campaign manager for early childhood policy at CAP. … Bridgette Gray is joining Opportunity@Work today as chief customer officer. She previously was chief impact officer at Per Scholas.

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