Playbook PM: Biden finally gets some good news

From: POLITICO Playbook - Friday Nov 05,2021 05:24 pm

Nov 05, 2021

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HILL LATEST — After weeks of frustration from many Democrats that President JOE BIDEN wasn’t being assertive enough (more on that from Laura Barrón-López, Chris Cadelago and Natasha Korecki), House leaders finally heard the words they’ve been waiting for.

“I’m asking every House member … to vote ‘yes’ on both these bills right now,” Biden said this morning. “Send the infrastructure bill to my desk, send the Build Back Better bill to the Senate.”

The question, notes Heather Caygle: Will it be enough? Here’s the state of play:

— Speaker NANCY PELOSI and her leadership team are still trying to whip votes among progressives for the bipartisan infrastructure bill (BIF) and among moderates for the Build Back Better package (BBB).

— At his press conference this morning, Biden said he planned to go “back to my office to make some calls,” working the phones to whip support on the Hill.

— But will a vote happen today? “I don’t know,” House Majority Leader STENY HOYER said before entering Pelosi’s office around noon. FWIW, the influential Congressional Black Caucus reportedly wants a vote today.

— The latest: “Senior Dems pretty pessimistic about chances of a vote now,” Heather tweeted. “There have been a lot of offers passed to mod group but enough of them are still refusing to budge Leadership has not pulled plug yet as CBC still pushing for vote.”

— Heather and Sarah Ferris report that Pelosi decided to barrel forward with votes even though there are still kinks to be worked out with the Senate, judging that the risks of waiting are greater than the risks of jumping the gun.

— Much of House moderates’ resistance to the BBB hinges on their insistence that the package receive a CBO score before they vote on it — although the bill will likely change in the Senate (making any CBO score out of date) and the bipartisan infrastructure bill could well add more to the deficit in the long run.

— If they stand by that demand, prepare to wait. House Budget Chair JOHN YARMUTH (D-Ky.) said a full CBO score might take until the week before or of Thanksgiving, per CNN’s Manu Raju.

REPRIEVE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE — After a week of bad news for Democrats, the White House landed a Friday pick-me-up: a strong October jobs report that offers hope for the nation’s economy heading into the holiday season and 2022.

— A turn-the-page moment: “Biden has spent months watching his poll numbers sink as the economy appeared to be losing altitude throughout the fall. That narrative may have changed Friday,” writes Megan Cassella.

— The top line: Employers added 531,000 jobs last month, and the unemployment rate ticked down from 4.8% to 4.6%, per AP’s Christopher Rugaber.

— The October gains were broadly distributed across various sectors of the economy.

— August’s and September’s weak reports were revised upward, with the Labor Department estimating an extra 235,000 jobs were added in those months.

— Consumer confidence rose in October.

— Wages were up 4.9% year over year.

— BUT, BUT, BUT: That wage gain is almost entirely canceled out by inflation, and the economy is still millions of jobs short of pre-pandemic levels. NYT’s Ben Casselman : “What we’re not seeing is a big increase in people coming off the sidelines, either to look for work or to take jobs. Both increased in October, but not the kind of flood that many employers were hoping for.”

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Biden took a victory lap at the White House this morning, tying the economic recovery to the American Rescue Plan passed in March and the administration’s vaccine rollout. “This did not happen by accident, or just because: We laid the foundation for this recovery,” he said.

THE COVID TREATMENT PICTURE — In what could be another major development for efforts to diminish Covid-19’s worst effects, Pfizer said today that its pill slashed the risk of hospitalization or death by 89%. Following Merck’s recent announcement of a similar pill, Pfizer plans to apply for emergency use authorization from the FDA. More from NPR

— NBC’s @BenjySarlin: “If you buy that the biggest drag on Biden right now is COVID and the economy, seems relevant we just got by far the best news on both in months.”

Good Friday afternoon. The funeral for former Secretary of State COLIN POWELL began at noon — you can watch live here.

TRIVIA TIME — Which U.S. presidents served as governor of Virginia before winning the nation’s highest office? Email us the answer at playbook@politico.com, and we’ll announce the winner in Monday’s Playbook PM.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON MUST-READ — Our own Ryan Lizza has a Q&A with GLENN YOUNGKIN’s top strategists, JEFF ROE and KRISTIN DAVISON, offering a candid look at the surprising strategy behind the stunner in Virginia. Some choice excerpts:

— Davison on the role of critical race theory: “I think what you’re seeing on Fox News — when there’s someone with a bit of fire coming out of their ears over CRT — we weren’t seeing that as much on the ground … That’s an easier issue to talk about on TV. That’s not what we focused on here.”

— Roe on Dems’ problems: “The Republicans have been revolutionaries for most of the 2000s. And then they lost mightily because of it. … Democrats now are the revolutionaries. It just took them 10 months what took us 10 years.”

(IR)RECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES

SALT IN THE WOUND — If Democrats end up including a restoration of the state and local tax deduction in their reconciliation bill, the legislation could wind up actually lowering taxes for the wealthy overall, reports The Daily Beast’s Sam Brodey. That’s according to an analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. It would be a pretty stunning turnaround for a party that has staked much of its political identity on making the rich pay their fair share.

ANNALS OF INFLUENCE — WaPo’s Yeganeh Torbati and Jonathan O’Connell have a detailed examination of how the pharmaceutical industry pumped likely record amounts of money into its campaign to keep prescription drug cost-reduction efforts out of Democrats’ reconciliation bill. That encompasses $23 million in lobbying by PhRMA in the first three quarters of the year, plus additional alliances with “groups whose funding sources are hidden.” Mailers and attack ads have blanketed the districts of battleground House Democrats.

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

POLITICS ROUNDUP

WHOA — DOJ is examining people with links to Project Veritas in its investigation of how ASHLEY BIDEN’s diary was stolen and made public shortly before the 2020 election, NYT’s Michael Schmidt, William Rashbaum, Precious Fondren and Adam Goldman report. Federal agents conducted two searches Thursday, including at what seems to be SPENCER MEADS’ apartment, and have recently questioned “at least one person who worked for Project Veritas.”

CLOUDY FORECAST FOR SUNRISE — Six months ago, the Sunrise Movement’s band of youth activists trying to save the world from climate catastrophe were feeling hopeful. Now, their dreams of the U.S. taking radical action to cut emissions having been stamped out, Sunrise is facing a turn toward the pragmatic, writes Ruairí Arrieta-Kenna in a big POLITICO Magazine feature.

In some ways, it’s simply the story of the powerful intransigence of Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.). But it’s also “a real-time test of the limits of the progressive wave of the past few years,” he writes, and of an organization “attacked by pundits for impeding its own cause, wading into diffuse non-climate causes of the activist left, racked by internal conflict and out of options to deal with Manchin.”

VOTING RIGHTS WATCH — Eight big corporations that have publicly supported voting rights reform have also given thousands to the Senate Republicans who are blocking it from advancing, NBC’s Jane Timm reports, citing a new analysis from Accountable.US. That includes Amazon, Dell, Facebook and Microsoft.

UNDER THE RADAR — Daniel Nichanian has a really interesting roundup of Tuesday election results you might have missed that offer important clues about the political landscape around the country. Among the takeaways: Winding down the war on drugs continued to make progress; Tucson, Ariz., hiked its minimum wage; Boston opted for participatory budgeting; Republicans picked up a Pennsylvania state Supreme Court seat; St. Paul, Minn., adopted rent control; and much more.

2022 WATCH — Post-Virginia, Republicans are planning to make “race and diversity curricula” in public schools a centerpiece of their midterms strategy, report AP’s Thomas Beaumont, Aaron Morrison and Will Weissert. Democrats remain divided over how — and whether — to respond to the attacks.

THE WHITE HOUSE

VP FILES — Progressive activists are feeling increasingly frustrated with VP KAMALA HARRIS over the administration’s action (or lack thereof) on issues like immigration, voting rights and abortion, reports USA Today’s Matt Brown . As high expectations crash into the reality of governing, Harris has come in for particular criticism because she’s often set out to be an intermediary between the administration and progressives. “Central to many advocates’ critiques is a sense that the administration is open to communication on major issues but won’t take more strident public stances for fear of backlash.”

FED UP — Both Fed Chair JEROME POWELL and LAEL BRAINARD, the likeliest candidate to replace Powell if Biden opts not to renominate him, met with the president at the White House on Thursday, per Bloomberg.

CONGRESS

FOLLOWING THE MONEY — Controversial multilevel marketing businesses are pinning their donations — and political hopes — largely on Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (D-Ariz.), hoping to prevent her from signing onto the PRO Act, Democrats’ big labor bill, reports Hailey Fuchs. These companies typically donate to Republicans or not at all, but Sinema is one of just three Senate Democratic holdouts on the PRO Act (and the other two have already expressed some support). Hailey writes that the bill poses “an existential threat” to these companies, since it “would make it more difficult to classify workers as independent contractors.”

POLICY CORNER

CLIMATE FILES — The Energy Department today is announcing its biggest ever investment in carbon removal technology, an effort to slash the costs of sucking greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere by the end of the decade, NYT’s Brad Plumer reports from Glasgow. “As part of its new effort, the Energy Department plans to direct scientists at its national labs to research different approaches and to fund demonstration projects so that engineers can figure out how to reduce costs.”

JUMPING THE GUNS — Myah Ward has a new story about how Biden became a more forceful advocate for gun violence prevention — and the ascendance of “community violence intervention” as a policy concept. The idea is to address the root causes of gun violence with a more holistic and proactive approach. With gun control measures going nowhere in Congress, investing in CVI remains one of the only steps legislators can take. The question now: Will $5 billion slated for CVI in the reconciliation bill make it through the meat grinder of the next few weeks?

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

HAVANA SYNDROME LATEST — The State Department is tapping veteran diplomats JONATHAN MOORE and MARGARET UYEHARA to head its response to reports of the mysterious “Havana Syndrome” and will also roll out “new technology” to try to better understand it, reports McClatchy’s Michael Wilner. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN made his first Havana Syndrome speech today to announce the changes, which also include “a new partnership with Johns Hopkins University that will enhance care options for diplomats experiencing symptoms.” Wilner reports that the administration thinks it’s getting closer to an answer.

DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — Lawmakers in both parties are stepping up pressure on the Biden administration to jettison traditional U.S. “strategic ambiguity” around Taiwan and more forcefully defend the island from China. Andrew Desiderio reports that there’s even talk of sending Biden a preemptive war authorization for any potential conflict, though that would risk provoking China. The administration seems loath to make any significant changes to its posture.

TRADE WARS — While much of the steel and aluminum industry celebrated the Biden administration’s move to wind down tariffs with the EU, small importers are worried that a complicated new quota system could prove onerous, reports WSJ’s Josh Zumbrun.

BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.

VALLEY TALK

FACEBOOK FILES — In the latest installment of the damaging revelations about the social media behemoth, WSJ’s Georgia Wells, Deepa Seetharaman and Jeff Horwitz report that “1 in 8 of its users report engaging in compulsive use of social media that impacts their sleep, work, parenting or relationships.” That looks a lot like internet addiction, and Facebook’s internal research found it was worse on their platform than any other major one. The percentage is a bit lower — 1 in 10 — in the U.S., but we’re still talking about potentially more than 360 million people worldwide.

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

FOR YOUR RADAR — Opening statements began today in the trial of the three men accused of killing AHMAUD ARBERY. The judge ruled this morning that the defense cannot disclose Arbery was on probation at the time of his death, and that prosecutors are allowed to show TRAVIS MCMICHAEL had a Confederate flag license plate. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has live updates.

PLAYBOOKERS

IN MEMORIAM — “Delaware’s first and only female governor, Ruth Ann Minner, dies at 86,” by the Delaware News Journal’s Ryan Cormier and Esteban Parra: “She dropped out of high school at 16 to help out on her family farm. At 32, she was widowed and was suddenly left to raise three sons on her own while working two jobs and earning her GED. She later remarried and built a family towing business with her second husband, who died of lung cancer in 1991. A decade after his death, she would be sworn in as a history-making 72nd governor of the state.”

OUT AND ABOUT — Cory Horton and Clifton Williams hosted a reception to welcome and congratulate newly sworn-in Rep. Shontel Brown (D-Ohio) on Thursday night at Taft Advisors’ D.C. office. SPOTTED: HUD Secretary Marcia Fudge, House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.), Reps. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio), Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) and Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), Antjuan Seawright, Jennifer Stewart, Marcus Mason, John Mason, Ashley Hayes, Robert Harris, Eriade Williams, Moyer McCoy, Brandon Webb and Tasha Cole.

— The Hispanic Lobbyists Association’s Día de los Muertos-themed Avanza Awards cocktail reception on the Wharf on Thursday night honored Reps. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas) and David Valadao (R-Calif.), Estuardo Rodríguez, Grisella Martinez and Maria S. Gomez. They also took a moment of silence to remember the late Patricia Rojas-Ungár of the Outdoor Industry Association. Also SPOTTED , among others: Reps. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), Norma Torres (D-Calif.) and Teresa Leger Fernandez (D-N.M.).

BONUS BIRTHDAY: Target’s Molly Cagle