Manchinema’s Christmas present to Dems: A blunt reality check

From: POLITICO Playbook - Thursday Dec 16,2021 11:26 am
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DRIVING THE DAY

It’s a fitting end to a year dominated by two Senate Democrats at the center of pretty much everything in 2021: JOE MANCHIN and KYRSTEN SINEMA have all but put the kibosh on two major proposals their own party was hoping to pass before the holiday break.

— FIRST: Manchin’s talks with President JOE BIDEN over Build Back Better hit a brick wall. Earlier this week, Senate Democrats were looking to the president to bring the stubborn West Virginia Democrat around. Instead, Burgess Everett, Alex Thompson and Jonathan Lemire report that their discussions have gone so poorly that they’re “straining their friendly relationship.”

“Frustration among White House aides with Manchin is high and growing. And while Biden likes Manchin personally, he too has grown tired of the elongated talks and will soon push him to make a decision and support the legislation, according to two White House sources,” the trio write.

That’s why Senate Democrats are now bracing for BBB talks to drag into next year, when they’ll need to move quickly before election season kicks into high gear and makes passage impossible. As Bloomberg’s Laura Litvan, Erik Wasson and Steve Dennis noted in their write-up of the latest Biden-Manchin drama, Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER didn’t reiterate his Christmas deadline Wednesday for the first time in a while.

— SECOND: Realizing the BBB challenges with Manchin, Senate Democrats this week did an about-face on their topic du jour. Instead of narrowing in on their $1.7 trillion social spending bill, they started eyeing a Senate rule change to enable passage of a long-stalled voting rights bill.

But just when it seemed like Manchin might be softening on this issue, Sinema (Ariz.) popped the balloon. In a statement to Burgess on Wednesday night, she reiterated that she’s against any change to Senate rules that effectively weaken the filibuster. When Republicans eventually take power, her office said, they could replace the Democrats’ changes with “a nationwide voter-ID law, nationwide restrictions on vote-by-mail, or other voting restrictions currently passing in some states extended nationwide.”

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SO NOW WHAT? Schumer filed cloture Wednesday night on 22 Biden nominees, a move that amounts to a white flag of sorts signaling that neither BBB nor voting rights will happen before the holidays. Schumer said about 150 nominees that should have been confirmed by now are on ice — so he’s using tarmac fever to force some action at least on this.

Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook, where it looks like you’ll actually get a holiday break this year. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri.

 

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BIDEN’S THURSDAY:

— 9:30 a.m.: The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief.

— 1:30 p.m.: Biden will award the Medal of Honor to Sgt. 1st Class ALWYN CASHE, Sgt. 1st Class CHRISTOPHER CELIZ and Master Sgt. EARL PLUMLEE in the East Room, with first lady JILL BIDEN, VP KAMALA HARRIS and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF also attending.

— 3 p.m.: Biden and Harris will meet with the White House Covid-19 response team about the Omicron variant.

Principal deputy press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 3:15 p.m. with deputy national climate adviser ALI ZAIDI.

HARRIS’ THURSDAY:

— 9:55 a.m.: The VP will also speak about the bipartisan infrastructure law and announce a lead pipe and paint action plan at the AFL-CIO headquarters, along with EPA Administrator MICHAEL REGAN.

— 4:20 p.m.: Harris will swear in BRIAN NELSON as undersecretary of the Treasury for terrorism and financial crimes.

THE SENATE is in. THE HOUSE is out.

 

JOIN TODAY FOR A WOMEN RULE 2021 REWIND AND A LOOK AHEAD AT 2022: Congress is sprinting to get through a lengthy and challenging legislative to-do list before the end of the year that has major implications for women’s rights. Join Women Rule editor Elizabeth Ralph and POLITICO journalists Laura Barrón-López, Eleanor Mueller, Elena Schneider and Elana Schor for a virtual roundtable that will explore the biggest legislative and policy shifts in 2021 affecting women and what lies ahead in 2022. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
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President Joe Biden is pictured. | Getty Images

PHOTO OF THE DAY: President Joe Biden speaks to the press after touring areas damaged by Friday's tornado in Dawson Springs, Ky., on Wednesday, Dec. 15. | Scott Olson/Getty Images

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

There’s a gusher of Jan. 6-related news. Here are the most important stories:

NYT’s Tom Edsall has what is perhaps the most important read of the day in an essay titled, “How to Tell When Your Country Is Past the Point of No Return.”

He opens with this sobering sentence: “Political analysts, scholars and close observers of government are explicitly raising the possibility that the polarized American electoral system has come to the point at which a return to traditional democratic norms will be extremely difficult, if not impossible.”

NYT’s Katie Benner, Catie Edmondson, Luke Broadwater and Alan Feuer dig deep into how a small group of GOP lawmakers working with MARK MEADOWS “became key foot soldiers in [DONALD] TRUMP’s effort to overturn the election.”

The “band of loyalists”:

— Rep. SCOTT PERRY, who pressed DOJ to look into bogus election fraud allegations and “acted as a de facto sergeant” of the operation, which earned him the nickname “General Perry.”

— Rep. JIM JORDAN, “the pugnacious former wrestler who bolstered his national profile by defending Mr. Trump on cable television”

— Rep. ANDY BIGGS, “whose political ascent was padded by a $10 million sweepstakes win.”

— Rep. PAUL GOSAR, “an Arizona dentist who trafficked in conspiracy theories, spoke at a white nationalist rally and posted an animated video that depicted him killing Representative ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ, Democrat of New York.”

— Rep. LOUIE GOHMERT, “who was known for fiery speeches delivered to an empty House chamber and unsuccessfully sued Vice President MIKE PENCE over his refusal to interfere in the election certification.”

— Rep. MO BROOKS, “a lawyer who rode the Tea Party wave to Congress and was later sued by a Democratic congressman for inciting the Jan. 6 riot.”

Kyle Cheney takes a look at “the Jan. 6 puzzle piece that's going largely ignored,” Gohmert’s Dec. 27 lawsuit. Kyle writes, “Gohmert’s move forced Pence to publicly resist Trump’s subversion of the election, only a week before the fateful Jan. 6 joint session of Congress. When the Justice Department stepped in to defend Pence from the lawsuit on Dec. 29, it marked the first time Pence signaled he wouldn’t fold to Trump’s demands.”

WaPo’s Ashley Parker, Josh Dawsey and Jacqueline Alemany profile Meadows , “chief enabler to a president who was desperate to hold onto power,” and “a facilitator to conspiracy theorists.” They note that Trump’s last chief of staff “has provided a gold mine of information” to the Jan. 6 committee, but that he is also now in “legal jeopardy” and his relationship with Trump is threatened.

ABOUT THOSE TEXTS … Jordan forwarded a text to Meadows “on January 5 that was sent to him by JOSEPH SCHMITZ, a former Department of Defense inspector general. Schmitz’s text included a draft presentation arguing that Pence had the constitutional authority to object to the certification of election results from certain states,” CNN’s Ryan Nobles and Zachary Cohen report. Some of Jordan’s message was revealed by the Jan. 6 committee earlier this week, but it was attributed to an “unnamed lawmaker.”

QUITE THE CONUNDRUM — While the House on Tuesday night voted to charge Meadows with criminal contempt, the move “again puts at the feet of the Justice Department a political and legal conundrum,” WaPo’s Matt Zapotosky writes . “If prosecutors charge Meadows for failing to comply with a subpoena from the committee investigating the Jan. 6 breach, they could risk undermining the ability of the executive branch to keep officials’ discussions private — including in future administrations. They could also face Republican allegations that they’re abandoning precedent to unfairly target a political foe.

“Decline to do so, however, and federal prosecutors could hamstring lawmakers’ investigation into a brazen attack on the seat of American democracy, while facing blistering criticism from Democrats and liberal groups.”

CNN’s Holmes Lybrand reports on a new arrest: “Two Texas men, LUCAS DENNEY and DONALD HAZARD, who prosecutors say formed their own militia group called the ‘Patriot Boys of North Texas,’ were arrested Monday for allegedly assaulting police officers during the January 6 riot at the US Capitol.”

CBS’ Eleanor Watson and Robert Legare report, “More than 80 of the defendants charged in relation to the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol have ties to the U.S. military — most of those with a military background were veterans.

Military.com’s Konstantin Toropin reports, “A National Guardsman who was part of the mob that rampaged through the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6 has been sentenced to probation and a fine for his actions, but will avoid jail time, court records show. His state says he’s still in the Guard.”

 

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CONGRESS

PRESSURE BUILDS ON MCCARTHY TO OUST CHENEY, KINZINGER — As the Jan. 6 committee bears down on Trump, allies of the former president are demanding that KEVIN MCCARTHY lower the boom on the panel’s two Republican members. About 50 outside groups and top confidants of the former president — including DAVID BOSSIE, MATT SCHLAPP, KEN CUCCINELLI and TONY PERKINS — called on the House minority leader to oust Reps. LIZ CHENEY (Wyo.) and ADAM KINZINGER (Ill.) from the GOP Conference. Read the letter here

House conservatives have been agitating all year for McCarthy to take this action — which would likely result in the pair losing their committee posts — but he has refused. McCarthy allies argue that such a move would make Cheney and Kinzinger martyrs. Plus, House Democrats could reseat them back on their panels anyway.

There’s an additional concern in McCarthy world: Do they really want to punish two GOP members for following their conscience while allowing rank-and-file representatives like MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (Ga.) and LAUREN BOEBERT (Colo.) to escape public rebukes for their own controversial comments?

But sources involved in drafting the letter tell us “this is just the beginning” of efforts by Trump allies to pressure the minority leader. In short, they want retribution. “This will be a moment that might determine if he is the next Speaker,” one of the organizers of the letter told Playbook on Wednesday night. “The last thing McCarthy needs or wants is for President Trump to turn his attention from MITCH MCCONNELL to him. Trump could view it as McCarthy enabling Cheney.”

CONGRESSIONAL HOLD-EM –– Sarah Ferris and Nicholas Wu take a look at how Congressional leaders on the left plan on making sure their base understands that the $1.7 trillion social policy bill they passed is “just about the best-case scenario.” The leader of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, Rep. PRAMILA JAYAPAL, told the pair “What we’re trying to do is make sure it stays as good as possible. We are now counting on the Senate to make sure to preserve it.”

“Senior liberal Rep. JAN SCHAKOWSKY (D-Ill.) summed it up: ‘You got to know when to hold and know when to fold.’”

INFLATION WATCH

The Federal Reserve, citing “elevated inflation pressures and a rapidly strengthening labor market,” moved up its timeline — from June to March — to end programs to aid the economy ahead of a likely series of interest rate hikes later next year.

Victoria Guida notes that the “move marks a striking turnaround for Fed Chair JEROME POWELL , who only months ago was dismissing the surge in inflation as ‘transitory,’” and “underscores how rapidly the Fed has pivoted on inflation in the face of a few months of hotter-than-expected price spikes, which have begun spreading out beyond those sectors most directly hurt by supply chain bottlenecks.”

WSJ’s Nick Timiraos calls it “a major policy pivot that showed much greater concern about the potential for inflation to stay high,” and reports that Fed officials now predict three rate hikes of a quarter percentage point in 2022.

NYT’s Jeanna Smialek wonders whether the change had anything to do with Powell securing a second term:

“Mr. Powell’s public shift to sounding more concerned about inflation came shortly after President Biden announced on Nov. 22 that he would appoint him to a second term as chair, saying he believed Mr. Powell would focus on both the need to control inflation and fostering a strong economy that creates jobs and pushes wages higher.

“That timing fueled speculation about whether Mr. Powell turned toward fighting inflation and putting less primacy on keeping borrowing cheap once he had secured reappointment — or that his reappointment gave him a new mandate to act more boldly, knowing he would be around to carry out the plan.”

Bloomberg’s Chunzi Xu says that Biden’s efforts to lower gasoline prices may be thwarted by “surging gasoline demand.”

CNN’s Katie Lobosco and Tara Subramaniam take a deep look at the politics and policy of Build Back Better and inflation.

THE PANDEMIC

TESTING, TESTING — Administration officials “are privately warning Covid-19 test makers and laboratories that demand for tests could double or even triple over the next two months as cases surge across the country,” sources tell David Lim and Adam Cancryn.

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

Florida GOP Gov. RON DESANTIS announced the “Wrongs to Our Kids and Employees (WOKE) Act” to “fight back against woke indoctrination” and “take on both corporate wokeness and Critical Race Theory.” The bill, in the vein of the Texas anti-abortion law SB-8, allows parents to sue school districts if they teach ‘critical race theory’ in classrooms,” Andrew Atterbury reports.

San Francisco Mayor LONDON BREED announced new anti-crime policies in San Francisco and said it was time to stop tolerating “all the bullshit that has destroyed our city.” She added, “It’s time the reign of criminals who are destroying our city, it is time for it to come to an end. And it comes to an end when we take the steps to be more aggressive with law enforcement,” KPIX reports.

South Dakota GOP Gov. KRISTI NOEM said “she would propose a bill to ban transgender women and girls from participation in female school sports leagues,” the AP reports. “The proposal, which will be considered during the legislative session in January, revives a debate in the Capitol that split Republicans last year. A similar bill ultimately died in March after the governor issued a “style and form veto” against it.”

Texas A.G. KEN PAXTON said he would investigate drug companies “that allegedly promoted hormone-blocking drugs for children with gender dysphoria, even though the drugs have not been approved for this purpose.”

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Bret Stephens argued that Joe Biden shouldn’t run for reelection because of his age — “[o]ften cogent, but sometimes alarmingly incoherent” — and noted that “it’s now considered horrible manners to raise concerns about Biden’s age and health.”

Angelina Jolie was spotted leaving Nancy Pelosi’s office.

Donald Trump endorsed Lauren Boebert for reelection.

Joe Biden told a Packers fan in Kentucky, “Tell your quarterback he’s got to get the vaccine.”

Joe Manchin told a reporter, “You’re bullshit.”

Donald Trump’s quest for more powerful shower heads was nixed by Biden’s Energy Department.

LOBBYIST GETS TOASTED — One of Washington’s longest-practicing lobbyists, Tom Quinn, celebrated his 84th birthday Wednesday night at the Dubliner, which included a serenading by Joe Crowley. “Since I lost my original day job, I can’t afford to lose this one,” the former congressman from New York said before leading the raucous crowd in song on his guitar. Quinn has been around for so long, even Crowley struggled to nail down his age. “This is just the warm-up for my 85th,” Quinn told Tara. The entire delegation of his home state of Rhode Island was in attendance, including Democratic Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse and Jack Reed and Democratic Reps. James Langevin and David Cicilline. Other guests included: Sens. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Rep. Jim Costa (D-Calif.), Tom McMillen, Greta Van Susteren, John Coale, Joe Paolino, Steve Clemons, Francesca Craig, Lynly Boor, Jill Kelley, Natalie Khawam, Gerry Harrington, John McCarthy, Ryan Williams, James Hooley, Phil Rucker, John Arundel, Jeff Dufour, Ben Terris, Yebbie Watkins, Lyndon Boozer, Billy Tranghese and Julie Chase.

SPOTTED at the fifth annual holiday veterans tribute and “Songs of the Season” event organized by Kirsten Fedewa and the Coalition to Salute America’s Heroes at the Capitol Hill Club on Tuesday night: Anthony Kearns, Kevin Corke, Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska), retired Gen. Chuck Wald, Col. James Tierney, Capt. Miles Kirwin, Matt Cary, John Magill, Mark Holman, Jax Scott and Finbar Brown.

SPOTTED at Best Friends Animal Society’s holiday party Wednesday night at Jackie’s in Navy Yard, where guests were greeted by bulldog/poodle mix rescue puppies from Homeward Trails Animal Rescue: Christina Robbin, Matt Shirley, Igor Bobic, Julie Jarvis, Olivia Petersen, Kirk Bado, Danielle Fulfs, Dahvi Cohen, Mary Hurrell, Nicole Myers, Callie Strock and Sarah Lee. Pic

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Brandi Hoffine Barr is now senior director of Policy Communications at Peloton. She previously was in policy comms at Facebook.

MEDIA MOVES — Michael Schaffer, the award-winning editor of Washingtonian Magazine, is joining POLITICO Magazine. He will “write a weekly reported column that takes readers inside Washington — the personalities and institutions that animate it” — as well as serve as a senior editor, per an announcement this morning. … Former acting DNI Ric Grenell is joining Newsmax as a national security contributor and executive for international partnerships. Announcement

NEW NOMINEES — The White House announced several new nominations: Caroline Kennedy as ambassador to Australia, Michelle Kwan as ambassador to Belize, Robert Wood as alternate representative for special political affairs at the U.N., Frank Calvelli as assistant secretary of the Air Force for space acquisition, Franklin Parker as assistant secretary of the Navy for manpower and reserve affairs, Michael Morgan as assistant secretary of Commerce for environmental observation and prediction, LaWanda Toney as assistant secretary of Education for the Office of Communications and Outreach, Marvin Adams as deputy director for defense programs at DOE, and Summer Mersinger and Caroline Pham as CFTC commissioners.

TRANSITIONS — Jim Carter has been named director of the Center for American Prosperity at the America First Policy Institute. He most recently was VP of government affairs at Emerson, and is a Bush administration alum. … Ben Needham is joining the ACLU as deputy director in the national political advocacy department. He previously was director of strategic initiatives at the Human Rights Campaign. … Emilie Kao and Roger Severino will rejoin the Heritage Foundation as visiting fellows in the DeVos Center for Religion and Civil Society. Kao previously joined the Alliance Defending Freedom earlier this year. Severino is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center and previously was director of the Office for Civil Rights at HHS.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Amy Brundage, managing director at SKDK, and Mike Callahan, head sailing coach at Georgetown University, on Monday morning welcomed Joanie Grace Callahan, who came in at 6 lbs, 10 oz.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: CNN’s Phil Mattingly, Liz Turrell and Jason SeherLesley Stahl (8-0) … National Journal’s Zach CohenMelissa Kiedrowicz Ellison … former Rep. Norm Dicks (D-Wash.) … Adam BrombergPeter Orszag … Bloomberg’s Rebecca RaineyMatt MarianiAllison Herwitt of Sen. Chris Murphy’s (D-Conn.) office … Kelsey KnightJenni LeCompte of Finsbury Glover Hering … John Bailey … DOJ’s Matt Klapper … FCC’s Kate BlackJody Murphy of End Citizens United … Caroline Champion of FlexPoint Media … Kezia McKeague of McLarty Associates … Amber Smith of Beacon Rock Strategies … Tom JoannouCarol Browner Heather King … Sony’s Christina MulvihillChris Frech … Boston Globe’s Liz GoodwinAmy SiskindSusan EstrichClay BlackElisa Beneze … former Rhode Island Gov. Don Carcieri Jake Sherman Judith Giuliani Jano CabreraSusan Liss … former Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn

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