Playbook PM: Manchin whisperer reveals what really went wrong

From: POLITICO Playbook - Monday Dec 20,2021 06:56 pm

Dec 20, 2021

By Ryan Lizza, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

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STEVE CLEMONS, a good friend of Playbook, knows JOE MANCHIN as well as anyone in Washington. When Steve was recently honored by the French, Manchin was there to celebrate. When Manchin recently sat down with a group of Washington insiders for an off-the-record dinner in a private room at Cafe Milano, it was Steve who hosted it. At a recent soiree at the French ambassador’s residence, Clemons was the guy guiding the senator around the first floor of the Kalorama mansion and acting as a kind of gatekeeper for the dozens of revelers in black tie who wanted face time.

So when Steve writes about the senator, it’s worth paying attention. His new dispatch for The Hill, posted this morning, is titled, “White House incivility is what ‘lost’ Joe Manchin.” Anyone following the Biden-Manchin drama closely will want to read every word of this piece.

According to Steve, the key moment when the White House lost the West Virginia Democrat was on Thursday, when, in Manchin’s view, President JOE BIDEN broke a non-aggression pact that the two men had negotiated after agreeing that the Build Back Better package wouldn’t move until after Christmas.

Steve writes:

“But then – bang! – the White House released a statement blaming Manchin for the delay. It tried to strike a positive tone about the future, but it targeted Manchin specifically and alone. …

“I know Manchin. He believes in civility above all things. … When I saw Manchin’s name in the presidential statement, I knew he would perceive it as a breach of process, a breach of spirit, a breach of Joe and Joe working this out so that politicians from Scranton and Charleston could find a way to align with those from Brooklyn and San Francisco.

“Given the protests that Manchin’s family has experienced at his home, which is a boat in Washington Harbor — with folks harassing him, his wife and grandson by kayak around his boat and the gate to the marina — I knew this presidential statement was personalizing the game. It put his family at risk, in my view. Everyone knows Manchin and [Sen. KYRSTEN] SINEMA are the two Democrats the White House must negotiate with because it has given up on Republicans — but to specify Manchin in a presidential statement meant the terms of the dealmaking had changed.

“The question now is ‘Who lost Joe Manchin?’ Was it the president who veered away from his own famous framework for dealing with difficult leaders? How could the White House not know that getting uncivil with Manchin — who believes in civility even with his biggest antagonists, who had a three-hour dinner with progressive leader Rep. PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-Wash.) and then spoke publicly about how valuable it was to know her better than he did previously — would be so destructive?”

There will be a lot of observers who roll their eyes at this civility excuse and laugh at the idea that Manchin and his family were put at risk. But what matters is that this is what Manchin seems to believe.

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Manchin himself is leaning into the civility excuse. Here’s how he described his rebellion against the White House in a local radio interview with HOPPY KERCHEVAL this morning, per Burgess Everett:

“‘I knew what they could and could not do. They just never realized it, because they figure surely to God we can move one person. Surely, we can badger and beat one person up,’ Manchin said on West Virginia MetroNews, his first response to the blowback he’s taken from the White House and Democrats for tanking Biden’s signature legislation.

“He added: ‘Well, guess what? I’m from West Virginia. I’m not from where they’re from, [where] they can just beat the living crap out of people and think they’ll be submissive.’”

Both Clemons and Manchin target White House officials, rather than the president himself.

“I just got to the wit’s end. And they know the real reason what happened. They won’t tell you, and I’m not going to tell you,” Manchin said in the radio interview today. “It’s not the president, it’s the staff. They drove some things and they put some things out that were absolutely inexcusable.”

Our big takeaway from these new Manchin revelations this morning? This was as much personal and cultural as it was ideological.

NEW POLL: SENATE DEMS MOVING ‘TOO SLOW’ ON BBB — We have some fresh numbers just in from the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll that we wanted to share. Here are the highlights:

— A plurality of the public believes that both Democrats in Congress (41%) and Biden (42%) have accomplished less than expected.

— Build Back Better remains popular (45% support, 40% oppose).

— A plurality (45%) believe that Democrats in the Senate are moving too slow to pass BBB. (Only 9% say they are moving too fast.)

— The expanded child tax credit payments, which are about to expire, are popular (49% support, 38% oppose), but a majority (51%) also says they should not be made permanent. Toplines … Crosstabs

Good Monday afternoon. D.C.’s indoor mask mandate is back through Jan. 31, Mayor MURIEL BOWSER announced today. She’s also toughening a vaccine (+ booster) mandate for city workers and newly offering free at-home rapid tests at some city libraries.

CONGRESS

BIG BLOW FOR DEMS — Rep. STEPHANIE MURPHY (D-Fla.), one of the House’s moderate leaders, won’t seek reelection after four years in Congress, Sarah Ferris scooped today. She said it was a decision based on her family and needing to spend more time with her young kids, not politics, though she didn’t rule out future runs for office. Video announcement

FUN READ — For POLITICO Magazine, Nancy Scola profiles Rep. KEN BUCK (R-Colo.), the rare anti-Big Tech congressman who’s actually trying to live out his ideals. He doesn’t use Facebook or Amazon or even Google — he searches the internet via DuckDuckGo (or leans on his staff). Oh, and he’s the ranking member on House Judiciary’s antitrust subcommittee, one of Silicon Valley’s top legislative overseers.

POLITICO TECH AT CES 2022 - We are bringing a special edition of the POLITICO Tech newsletter to CES 2022. Written by Alexandra Levine and John Hendel, the newsletter will take you inside the most influential technology event on the planet, featuring every major and emerging industry in the technology ecosystem gathered together in one place. The newsletter runs from Jan. 5-7 and will focus on the public policy related aspects of the gathering. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage of the Summit.

MANCHIN-BIDEN FALLOUT

REACTION FROM THE LEFT — On “Morning Joe” this morning, Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-N.Y.) said Manchin’s move “represents such an egregious breach of the trust of the president” and also proved progressives right in their attempt to link the BBB with the bipartisan infrastructure bill. She also called for structural reforms to the Senate.

“It’s really up to leadership in the Democratic Party who made the decision to get us to this juncture and how we’re going to move forward. I think right now that leaders and Democratic leadership have a very large number of tools at their disposal — the president, particularly — and it’s really about time that we take the kid gloves off and we start using them to govern for working families in this country.”

MORE: The Hill’s Scott Wong, Amie Parnes and Morgan Chalfant capture the Democratic infighting today : Rep. VERONICA ESCOBAR (D-Texas) says Manchin’s move is “calamitous for our planet.” Meanwhile, an anonymous Dem lawmaker blasts the White House on everything from Manchin to Afghanistan and says, “I do think [Biden] needs to clean house if we have any chance of salvaging 2022. There have to be consequences.”

TRUMP CARDS

THE INVESTIGATIONS — DONALD TRUMP sued New York A.G. TISH JAMES in federal court today to try to stop her investigations into his business and participation in a criminal inquiry, saying they were politically motivated. The lawsuit taps into James’ long history of criticizing Trump and says she’s violating his constitutional rights. More from the NYT … The lawsuit

NOT PLAYING TO THE CROWD — Trump revealed Sunday that he’s gotten his Covid-19 booster shot, per Newsweek.

POLITICS ROUNDUP

2024 WATCH — Here’s another item for the “reforms Dems are abandoning” bucket: shaking up the presidential primary calendar. David Siders and Alex Thompson report that despite calls for change after 2020, Iowa and New Hampshire will likely remain secure at the front of the line, given “widespread desire to avoid a divisive, intraparty dispute in 2022 — and skepticism that any change enacted after the midterm elections could be done in time.” (At least for 2024.) An intervention by Biden himself could likely make an impact, but absent that, inertia will likely prevail.

2022 WATCH — The Pennsylvania Senate GOP primary is poised to get a little more crowded as hedge fund manager DAVID MCCORMICK today files paperwork to create an exploratory committee, the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Jonathan Tamari reports. McCormick plans to self-fund a $1 million statewide TV ad buy beginning Tuesday to introduce himself to voters. Still, “allies insist there’s been no final decision” on whether to run. McCormick is a Pennsylvania native but “would be the third ultra-wealthy GOP contender to join the race after long living out of state.”

REDISTRICTING ROUNDUP — California’s latest draft map would shore up basically all Democratic-held seats while making nearly half of the 11 current Republican seats more Democratic, per Dave Wasserman.

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

INFRASTRUCTURE YEAR

ACELA CORRIDOR UPDATE — The bipartisan infrastructure law’s massive infusion of cash into America’s rail system is poised to modernize and expand Amtrak, especially in the Northeast Corridor, reports NYT’s Madeleine Ngo. Rail service could extend anew (or again) to many cities that are currently underserved, while improving accessibility for disabled people and stimulating local economy. Still, such projects take time and it could be years before passengers reap the benefits — with labor shortages among the challenges.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

BIG INVESTIGATION — In the latest Pandora Papers installment, WaPo’s Debbie Cenziper and the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists’ Will Fitzgibbon examine Wyoming’s status as a top tax haven for the wealthiest people in the world to move their money in secret. That includes a Russian oligarch close to the government. And the state hasn’t seen a corresponding tax revenue boon from the financial proceedings.

PULLOUT FALLOUT — Nahal Toosi goes inside the biggest U.S. evacuee resettlement effort in decades, which has gotten 44,000 Afghans to new homes in America and has tens of thousands more still waiting at military bases. Advocates say the endeavor is going remarkably well, especially for how quickly it had to come together. Refugee aid groups say the infusion of cash has allowed them to build out infrastructure that will endure beyond this wave. But “the job of helping vulnerable Afghans is far from over,” Nahal reports, as those here adjust to life in a new country — and many more remain in Afghanistan under Taliban rule.

SAY GOODBYE TO SWITZERLAND — The annual World Economic Forum in Davos next month has been postponed thanks to Omicron. More from CNBC

THE WHITE HOUSE

SECOND GENTLEMAN FILES — WaPo’s Cleve Wootson Jr. profiles DOUG EMHOFF, who’s slotting into a classic political role of softening his spouse’s image to certain constituencies — except it’s not the usual groups. “Her allies say he serves as a sort of emissary to an array of groups, including those who may, whether they admit it or not, feel unease about women of color in positions of power.” And though he gives off a regular-guy aura, “his role is more serious and tactical than it looks.”

PLAYBOOKERS

MEDIA MOVES — Mark Leibovich will join The Atlantic in the spring as a staff writer. He’s long been at the NYT/NYT Magazine. Announcement … Anna Johnson will be the AP’s next Washington bureau chief. She most recently was news director for Europe and Africa. Announcement … Charles Coleman Jr., a civil rights attorney and former Brooklyn prosecutor, has joined NBC News and MSNBC as a legal analyst. Announcement

TRANSITIONS — Washington – Michael Steel will be SVP of comms at Business Roundtable. He currently is a partner at Hamilton Place Strategies. … Marcus Frias is now comms director for Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.). He most recently was comms director for Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.). … Kate Giaquinto is now comms director for Rep. David McKinley (R-W.Va.). She most recently was comms director for the Attorney General’s Office at the New Hampshire Department of Justice. …

… Michael Short will be a managing director at Hamilton Place Strategies. He most recently was chief comms officer and director of public affairs at the CFTC, and is a NAM, Trump White House and RNC alum. … Ryan McDevitt is joining Pfizer as a senior manager of U.S. policy and public affairs. He previously was director of federal government relations for George Washington University. … Eli Levine will be senior manager for corporate sustainability at Stryker Corporation. He previously led the Better Plants program at the Department of Energy.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) and Alisha Kramer welcomed Eva Beth Ossoff on Friday.

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