’Tis the season of year-end lists

By Tara Palmeri

Predicting the future is a fool’s errand, but people just can’t help themselves. In what’s become a delicious year-end staple at POLITICO Magazine, our deputy editor Zack Stanton reviews some of 2021’s biggest whiffs in politics.

A few of the worst lowlights:

— On the morning of Jan. 6, HUGH HEWITT predicted on MEGYN KELLY’s podcast that DONALD TRUMP’s final weeks in office would be much ado about little, and a peaceful transfer of power would just happen. He told Kelly, who agreed, “I would just say to everybody: It will be fine. Everything’s going to be fine.”

— As forces were being withdrawn from Afghanistan, President JOE BIDEN predicted at a press conference July 8 that it would be nothing like the fall of Saigon and that the Taliban wouldn’t take over. To quote: “There’s going to be no circumstance where you see people being lifted off the roof of an embassy … of the United States from Afghanistan. It is not at all comparable. … The likelihood there’s going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely.” One month later, Chinook helicopters were airlifting Americans off the roof of the U.S. Embassy in Kabul and the Taliban had taken over.

— NATE SILVER said there’s a “pretty decent” chance that GAVIN NEWSOM would lose the recall election. He made the prediction on Twitter in August when polls were tightening and some Democrats were questioning the strategy of not putting forward a potential Newsom successor. A month later, the California governor defeated the recall with 62% of the vote.

Zack’s list doesn’t miss a beat, calling out KARL ROVE, TOM RICKS, ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI, BRETT ARENDS, DANA PERINO, MATT GROSSMAN, JASON CHAFFETZ, BEN WEINGARTEN and many more.

SPEAKING OF PREDICTIONS — LARRY SUMMERS, probably 2021’s best prognosticator (to the misfortune of Biden and the country), has another grim prediction on inflation for the coming year. On an episode of the Bloomberg podcast “Stephanomics,” he said he worries “we are already reaching a point where it will be challenging to reduce inflation without giving rise to recession” and raised the prospect of a recession/“secular stagnation” combo.

TIS THE SEASON … OF YEAR-END LISTS — NYT’s Shane Goldmacher has another fun one: what he imagines are the 2022 wish lists of the nation’s top politicians.

For Biden: “a stronger economy, shrinking inflation and a disappearing virus.”

For Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL: “mainstream nominees in swing states for 2022” after Trump endorsed a trio of seemingly unelectable candidates and “toning down of Trump’s attacks,” which Goldmacher notes is “probably more pipe dream than wish.”

For VP KAMALA HARRIS: “greater staff stability and a more positive portrayal in the press.” Read the rest here

Happy Friday, and Merry Christmas Eve to those who celebrate. We’ll be publishing on a later schedule through New Year’s weekend, then back bright and early starting Jan. 3. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza , Tara Palmeri.

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A RIFT IN THE GOP FOREIGN POLICY WORLD — National Review’s Jimmy Quinn has an interesting read on AEI’s KORI SCHAKE, who has rankled both hawkish and non-interventionist Republicans and may have diminished the prestigious think tank’s influence on the Hill with her unorthodox foreign policy positions. Schake has embraced the Iran nuclear deal, opposes sanctions on Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline and has called out Republicans for taking issue with critical race theory in the military.

During Schake’s two-year tenure as foreign policy director, Quinn writes that “hawkish foreign-policy hands” worry that AEI “has been moving in a different direction” and “AEI has distanced itself from the rest of the movement’s approach.”

A senior congressional Republican staffer told Quinn: “What she’s done is genuinely made the Hill ambivalent about AEI. No one pays attention to their events, and no one reads their newsletters.” One senior staffer said that their research material gets a “presumption of denial” when it comes across his desk.

The piece, which describes Schake as “a generally well-regarded expert on defense issues,” includes her responses to the criticisms. And NR published another AEI response here.

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BIDEN’S FRIDAY — The president has nothing on his public schedule.

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PHOTO OF THE DAY

Aubrey and Katie Wright react Thursday after former Minnesota police offer Kim Potter was found on guilty on two counts of manslaughter in the fatal shooting of the couple’s son Daunte. | Stephen Maturen/Getty Images

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

INVASION WATCH — The U.S. is weighing an intelligence plan that would help Ukraine understand and respond to a potential Russian invasion in real time, NYT’s Helene Cooper and Julian Barnes report. It’s among the most significant of the ideas being considered within the Biden administration to help shore up Ukraine — but it also could risk an escalation from the Ukrainians in a conflict the U.S. is eager to deter. “For the Biden administration, the escalating situation on the border is demanding a balancing act.”

ALSO: “U.S., Russia Move Closer to Talks Over Ukraine as Moscow Masses Troops,” by WSJ’s Michael Gordon, Vivian Salama and Ann Simmons

PULLOUT FALLOUT — In a multimedia, multi-stranded retelling , NYT’s Mujib Mashal and Thomas Gibbons-Neff document how the newspaper evacuated more than 120 employees and family members from Afghanistan in the frenzied final days of the U.S. withdrawal. “No one comes through a passage like that unchanged — not people, not countries.”

SCOOP — ASHRAF GHANI, who fled the presidential palace as the Taliban closed in, is working on a new book, two sources told Daniel Lippman. The book is expected to be about Ghani’s perspective on his years in power, including mistakes made along the way and the Taliban’s eventual takeover. (Though we also hear the book could veer in a different direction.) Ghani, who previously wrote “Fixing Failed States: A Framework for Rebuilding a Fractured World” and currently lives in the United Arab Emirates, does not have a publisher yet, according to one source.

A former senior Afghan government official said Ghani told people before he left office that he wanted to write a new book. “The way he interacts with the world is through books,” the person said. A WSJ article notably reported that on the first Saturday of August, as the Taliban was quickly gaining ground, Ghani “spent much of the rest of the day on the emerald-green lawn of the presidential palace, reading a book.”

THE WHITE HOUSE

PSAKI BOMB — As Omicron rages in D.C., some White House reporters are proposing holding the daily briefings on Zoom or another virtual platform, but press secretary JEN PSAKI “has been cool to” the possibility thus far, reports WaPo’s Paul Farhi . The White House says it’s following sufficient health protocols to keep people safe, but some reporters wonder if the decision comes down more to optics. Meanwhile, the White House Correspondents’ Association may reduce the number of journalists at the briefings to allow greater spacing.

ALL POLITICS

DEMOCRATIC FREE-FOR-ALL — “Maryland could be the best opportunity for Democrats to flip a governorship anywhere in the country next year. But first, the party has to navigate a crowded, diverse and potentially expensive primary to find their nominee,” Brakkton Booker and Zach Montellaro report. “Five of nine Democrats who have declared as candidate to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. LARRY HOGAN are people of color, bolstering the state’s chances it could elect its first non-white man as governor.”

THE PLIGHT OF A DEMOCRAT IN KANSAS — Democratic Kansas Gov. LAURA KELLY is trying to shift to the center ahead of a tough reelection fight next year, moving to the right of even the state Chamber of Commerce in opposition to vaccine mandates, reports AP’s John Hanna in Topeka. She’s also sparring with the Biden administration on some environmental issues. “Her attempt to stake out ground in the political center has irritated some fellow Democrats in the short term. But others argue the tactic could work for her if she also hammers home a message that Kansas now has a stable budget and its public schools are considered fully funded.”

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

THE BIG DECISION — The House select committee on Jan. 6 is centering its investigation “on Donald Trump’s actions that day as it begins to discuss whether to recommend that the Justice Department open a criminal investigation into the former president,” WaPo’s Tom Hamburger, Jacqueline Alemany, Josh Dawsey and Matt Zapotosky report . “Of particular interest is why it took so long for him to call on his supporters to stand down, an area of inquiry that includes obtaining several versions of a video Trump reportedly recorded before finally releasing a message 187 minutes after the violence began.”

COMPLIANCE WITH A TWIST? — Kyle Cheney reports that BERNIE KERIK is getting closer to testifying/providing documents to the Jan. 6 committee — but he also said he’d post documents publicly. That is “raising concerns that his documents could be released selectively or without context.” Kerik worked with RUDY GIULIANI in an effort to undermine the democratic 2020 election results.

KNOWING THE RIOTERS — “… and a Merry Christmas From the ‘Patriots’ of Jan. 6,” by NYT’s Dan Barry and Alan Feuer

THE PANDEMIC

BREAKING — The U.S. will lift its Omicron-related travel restrictions on several southern African countries on New Year’s Eve, Reuters’ David Shepardson scooped. U.S. officials said the temporary ban had served its purpose in helping to slow the new variant’s spread without excessively penalizing the countries that detected Omicron first, but other experts have criticized the restrictions as unhelpful and counterproductive.

BIDEN’S TESTING FAILURE — “The Biden Administration Rejected an October Proposal for ‘Free Rapid Tests for the Holidays,’” by Vanity Fair’s Katherine Eban: “With omicron cases spreading like wildfire, the White House is finally taking steps to make free antigen tests available to all. But this fall, Vanity Fair has learned, it dismissed a bold plan to ramp up rapid testing ahead of the holidays. Frustrated experts explain how confusion, distrust, and a single-minded fixation on vaccinating Americans left testing on the back burner for so long.”

OMICRON’S ECONOMIC IMPACT — WSJ’s Sarah Chaney Cambon and Harriet Torry : “Signs are mounting that the U.S. economy is losing some steam as the Omicron variant of the Covid-19 virus spreads rapidly through parts of the country. The number of diners seated at restaurants nationwide was down 15 percent in the week ended Dec. 22 from the same period in 2019, a steeper decline than in late November, data from reservations site OpenTable show. U.S. hotel occupancy was at 53.8 percent for the week ended Dec. 18, slightly below the previous week’s level.”

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TRUMP CARDS

THE INVESTIGATIONS — The big question for Fulton County, Ga., prosecutors as they weigh a possible criminal case against Trump, 11 months into their investigation, is whether he had a “guilty mind” beyond a reasonable doubt in pushing Georgia officials to overturn the 2020 election. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Tamar Hallerman reports that “legal observers are divided over how easy that task could be.” Some experts think D.A. FANI WILLIS already has enough proof and should be moving faster to charge Trump; others say she’ll have to clear a challengingly high bar.

TRUMP INC. — WaPo’s Douglas MacMillan and Jonathan O’Connell zero in on a dubious partnership currently at the center of Trump’s new media venture: “A Chinese firm helping former president Donald Trump take his new media company public has been the target of investigations by federal securities regulators, who say the firm misrepresented shell companies with no products and few employees as ambitious, growing enterprises, documents and interviews show.

“Arc Capital, an investment advisory firm based in Shanghai, has repeatedly helped create or finance companies with little or no revenue, no customers and office locations that point to P.O. boxes, according to a Washington Post review of regulatory and court filings.”

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

NOT SO PEACHY — Federal health officials on Thursday blocked Georgia Gov. BRIAN KEMP from imposing a Medicaid work requirement, which had originally got the go-ahead from the Trump administration. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein writes that the move is “gutting the centerpiece of the Republican’s health care policy on the cusp of an election year,” and Kemp has pledged to sue.

CLIMATE FILES — There’s a ton of climate-focused federal assistance headed for local governments, thanks to the bipartisan infrastructure law, Biden administration actions and, potentially, Build Back Better. But Zack Colman reports on a next-order complication: It can be prohibitively difficult for localities to navigate the grant/loan application bureaucracy to actually get the money, despite the administration’s efforts to improve the process. “[S]ome local officials lament what they call a lack of communication from the Biden administration about how to take advantage of opportunities for help.”

MEDIAWATCH

BACK ON TOP — A year after Fox News briefly considered distancing itself from Trump, it’s embracing the president and his base more tightly than ever — and nabbing the No. 1 spot in the cable rankings, reports WaPo’s Sarah Ellison . “It’s a hard-fought triumph that has allowed Fox executives to shrug off” its ongoing challenges, she writes, including CHRIS WALLACE’s exit, lawsuits over its coverage of the 2020 election and the news that several hosts texted MARK MEADOWS on Jan. 6. A Fox statement credits the ratings win to “not just our news and opinion talent, but the many enterprising members of the team who work behind the scenes.”

TV TONIGHT — PBS’ “Washington Week”: Yasmeen Abutaleb, Jacqueline Alemany, Jeremy Peters and Ayesha Rascoe.

SUNDAY SO FAR …

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

IN MEMORIAM — “Franklin A. Thomas, Pathbreaking Ford Foundation President, Dies at 87,” by NYT’s Clay Risen: “He rose from working-class Brooklyn to become the first Black person to run a major American philanthropy, and he revitalized it, shifting its focus to poverty and education.”

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Dan Schwerin, who’s been advising Gene Sperling on comms on a temporary four-month contract as the administration implements the American Rescue Plan, is leaving the White House at the end of the year, a source told Daniel Lippman. He’s heading back to Evergreen Strategy Group, the social impact and comms firm he founded with Nick Merrill. Schwerin is a former director of speechwriting for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign and was a longtime policy adviser to her.

MEDIA MOVES — Josh Barro is launching an independent new podcast, “Very Serious with Josh Barro,” and newsletter in the new year. … Sean Evans is leaving Men’s Health to lead Hone Health, a new digital media platform promoting men’s health and wellness.

TRANSITION — Jack Stelzner is now comms director for Rep. Mike Thompson (D-Calif.). He previously was press secretary for Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.).

NEW NOMINEES — The White House announced another couple of judicial nominations: Nancy Abudu for the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals and Michelle Childs for the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Anthony Fauci (81) … Gene Sperling … Stephanie Ruhle … French Ambassador Philippe Etienne … Sabrina Singh … The New Yorker’s Evan Osnos … Dan Pfeiffer … DHS’ Marsha (Catron) Espinosa … Brian Marriott … Walter Pincus … CNBC’s Ylan Mui … Emory Cox of Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-Ala.) office … Atif Harden … Anastasia Golovashkina of Trilogy Interactive (28) … Ellen Ochs … Charlie Liebschutz of SRCPmedia … Perry Thompson … CBS’ Anna Sugg … Samir Kapadia of the Vogel Group … NYT’s Brian Zittel … former A.G. Jeff Sessions … former Rep. Randy Neugebauer (R-Texas) … Mark Prentice … Jordan Valdés … William Ward Wyatt ... Dorinda Moss Verhoff ... Corry Schiermeyer … Sharon Williams ... Jodi Ochstein ... AJ Sugarman

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