Playbook PM: California primaries offers key tests for both parties

From: POLITICO Playbook - Monday Jun 06,2022 05:44 pm
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Playbook PM

By Ryan Lizza and Garrett Ross

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GUN TALKS LATEST — Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine have the deets on what to watch today and the rest of this week as Congress tries to hammer out gun legislation: “The four senators at the center of bipartisan gun safety talks will meet Monday afternoon as they race to clinch a deal with mass shootings across the country continuing unabated and the fate of expanded background checks up in the air.

“The quartet of Sens. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.), JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas), KYRSTEN SINEMA (D-Ariz.) and THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.) is focused on a package that would expand background checks, state red flag laws, enhance school safety and provide new mental health programs, according to multiple people familiar with the talks. Those four senators will continue their discussions this week, anchoring a larger group of senators’ negotiations over the issue.”

PRE-PRIMARY READING — There are seven states holding primaries on Tuesday, but California is the one to keep an eye on.

A driver passes a sign with gas prices over $6.00 per gallon.

The average price for gas spiked to over $6 in California this weekend. | Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

What Democrats are watching: California boasts the highest average gas price in the nation, spiking above $6 over the weekend. Now, “on the cusp of Tuesday’s primary elections that will determine California’s general election matchups, there are signs that the cost of living is overshadowing virtually every other issue in some of the state’s battleground areas, according to elected officials, party strategists and polling,” NYT’s Katie Glueck reports from Santa Ana.

Here’s Rep. LOU CORREA (D-Calif.): “[Voters are] beyond furious — it’s called desperation. I don’t hear anything about the other national issues we’re focusing on in Washington. The thing I hear about is gasoline. What are you going to do to bring down the gas prices?”

What Republicans are watching: Our colleagues over on Morning Score write that “a pair of House Republicans could be in for a uniquely California nightmare.”

Reps. DAVID VALADAO and YOUNG KIM “both appear to be facing uncomfortably close primary contests on Tuesday,” Ally Mutnick and Scott Bland write, “and a loss by either could seriously endanger the GOP’s hold on their swing seats in the fall.”

“National Republicans are so concerned about this prospect that their top super PAC has poured some $1.9 million into their districts to prevent the incumbents from finishing behind another Republican in their June 7 all-party primary and getting locked out of November. Public polling has been scarce, but private surveys suggest that outcome is possible in both races.”

The concern: Ally and Scott write that if either (or both) of their challengers win on Tuesday, “it would be a huge blow to GOP chances of holding those Biden-won seats. Valadao and Kim are proven fundraisers and also highly touted candidates that can bring tough districts in play for Republicans.”

This is yet another race where Democrats, sensing opportunity, are making some mischief. “House Majority PAC, an outside group tied to Speaker NANCY PELOSI ,” Ally and Scott report, “is airing a spot on TV and digital platforms highlighting Valadao’s impeachment vote and calling Mathys ‘a true conservative’ who is ‘100 percent pro-Trump and proud.’”

YOUR TRUMP ANGLE FOR TUESDAY IS IN NEW JERSEY: NJ.com’s Jonathan D. Salant writes that DONALD TRUMP’s grip is, in fact, slipping in the Garden State: “Other than an endorsement of Rep. JEFF VAN DREW, R-2nd Dist., and an unredeemed promise to support a Republican primary challenger to Rep. CHRIS SMITH, R-4th Dist., Trump has become an afterthought as voters go to the polls Tuesday.”

Good Monday afternoon.

FUN AFTERNOON READ — The Points Guy’s Cameron Sperance reviews the Waldorf Astoria, the downtown hotspot formerly known as the Trump Hotel: “The name out front may now say Waldorf Astoria, but the influence of Donald Trump — especially thanks to a few design and signage Easter eggs — is still fully felt at Hilton’s latest ultra-luxury hotel in Washington, D.C.

“When the Trump International Hotel in D.C. reopened last week as a Waldorf Astoria three weeks after shuttering, it was inevitable Hilton wouldn’t have been able to sweep every vestige of its former namesake under the rug with such a tight timeline. … The Waldorf is expected to trump — sorry, I had to — the nearby Conrad as the hotel giant’s most-prestigious property in the Washington D.C. area. However, in the meantime, there’s still a lot — a lot — of gold-plated and velvet … everything.”

THE WHITE HOUSE

THE SINKING SUMMIT — After the Biden administration confirmed that it would not invite Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela to this week’s Summit of the Americas, Mexican President ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR said today that he would not attend the confab, AP’s Elliot Spagat, Joshua Goodman and Chris Megerian report. “Experts say the event could turn into an embarrassment for U.S. President JOE BIDEN. Even some progressive Democrats have criticized the administration for bowing to pressure from exiles in the swing state of Florida and barring communist Cuba, which attended the last two summits.”

— And CNN’s Jasmine Wright and Priscilla Alvarez have a report on VP KAMALA HARRIS’ role in pulling the summit together — and the challenge that remains for her in dealing with thorny immigration issues. Harris “made a late May call to Honduras' President XIOMARA CASTRO with a subtle nudge that would neatly encapsulate her fraught task of addressing the root causes of migration to the southern border. From her West Wing office, she received an update on the Central American leader's progress to combat corruption, a source familiar with planning told CNN. And in return, Harris relayed a succinct message: The United States would welcome Castro's participation at the high-profile Summit of the Americas that President Joe Biden will host this week in Los Angeles.

“But, as of Monday, Castro — whose inauguration Harris attended just months ago — has still not committed to coming. Nor have the leaders of the other two nations — Guatemala and El Salvador — in Harris' portfolio. And despite the efforts Harris and her team have made to cultivate relationships in the region during prominent trips and to secure $1.2 billion in private investments to bolster regional economies, major roadblocks remain as she addresses the drivers of migration in the Northern Triangle nations.”

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

WHAT THE COMMITTEE IS UP AGAINST — As the Jan. 6 select committee prepares for its primetime spectacle this week to debut its findings, a new NBC News poll finds that “just 45 percent of Americans say Donald Trump is ‘solely’ or ‘mainly’ responsible for the rioters who overtook the U.S. Capitol during the Jan. 6 attack, versus a combined 55 percent who say the former president is only somewhat responsible or not really responsible.”

Notable shift: “That’s a shift from the Jan. 2021 NBC poll — taken days after the attack — when 52 percent said Trump was either solely or mainly responsible, compared with 47 percent who disagreed.” More from NBC The poll

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SHOOTING FALLOUT

THIS IS AMERICA — Mayors are coming to terms with a grim reality: “Prepping for massacres has become a standard part of leading an American city,” writes NYT’s Mitch Smith . That was one of the topics of discussion at the U.S. Conference of Mayors meeting in Reno, Nev., this weekend. “The meeting … exposed a paradox of American mayoralty: When mass violence happens, mayors are the ones who must deliver the grim details, console their cities and field questions about how the gunman might have been stopped. But while big city mayors often have authority over police departments and social service programs, which can help prevent gun violence, they say they are largely powerless to enact the gun control measures that many of them say would be needed to prevent more tragedies.”

TOP-ED — WILL HURD writes for NYT Opinion: “I’m a Republican Who Represented Uvalde in Congress. I Want More Than Thoughts and Prayers”: “Careful, well-designed policy may not win headlines or make good fodder for campaign spots. But we know that it can save lives. And we know that real legislative solutions can pass in Washington.”

INTERESTING READ — “Can journalists and grieving communities coexist in tragedy?” by AP’s David Bauder

THE ECONOMY

SURVEY SAYS — WSJ has some fresh polling on Americans’ views of their own country, and the findings are pretty bleak. The topline: “Americans are deeply pessimistic about the U.S. economy and view the nation as sharply divided over its most important values,” Janet Adamy writes.

The deets: “Some 83% of respondents described the state of the economy as poor or not so good. More than one-third, or 35%, said they aren’t satisfied at all with their financial situation. That was the highest level of dissatisfaction since NORC began asking the question every few years starting in 1972 as part of the General Social Survey, though the poll’s 4-point margin of error means that new figures may not differ significantly from prior high and low points. Just over one quarter of respondents, 27%, said they have a good chance of improving their standard of living — a 20-point drop from last year — while just under half of respondents, 46%, said they don’t.”

POLICY CORNER

CLIMATE FILES — “Biden moves to ease trade turmoil threatening his solar energy ambitions,” by Kelsey Tamborrino

THE PANDEMIC

A STAGGERING NUMBER — “The U.S. has wasted over 82 million Covid vaccine doses,” by NBC’s Joshua Eaton

THE OFFICIAL RESPONSE — Rachael Levy has a report from inside the Biden administration about how officials are viewing the ongoing Covid numbers, including details that some in the admin “in recent months privately discussed how many daily Covid-19 deaths it would take to declare the virus tamed. … The discussions, which took place across the administration, and have not been previously disclosed, involved a scenario in which 200 or fewer Americans die per day, a target kicked around before officials ultimately decided not to incorporate it into pandemic planning, according to the people. …

“The sensitive nature of the conversations and the decision not to bring any hard number to the most senior members of the coronavirus task force or top Biden officials demonstrates the longstanding struggle to articulate when the country has controlled a pandemic that has already killed more than 1 million Americans and is still claiming nearly 300 lives every day.”

JUDICIARY SQUARE

SCOTUS WATCH — “Supreme Court Backs Southwest Baggage Worker on Arbitration in Pay Dispute Case,” by Bloomberg’s Greg Stohr

WAR IN UKRAINE

“U.S. Moves to Seize Two Planes Owned by Russian Oligarch Roman Abramovich,” by WSJ’s Aruna Viswanatha

PLAYBOOKERS

OUT AND ABOUT — The Ford’s Theatre Society celebrated its annual gala performance on Sunday night, where House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) and Clive Davis were awarded the Lincoln Medal, with performances by Phylicia Rashad, Sam Palladio, Nova Payton and more. Clyburn was praised for his leadership across the aisle while Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who presented the award to Davis, emphasized the importance of the arts to uplift and inspire, telling the crowd that “you can never dance too much.”

SPOTTED: Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Sandy Cornyn, John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) and Robin Hickenlooper, Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Susan Blumenthal Markey and Rob Portman (R-Ohio), Reps. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Ritu Khanna, Michael Turner (R-Ohio), Elaine Chao, Allison Russell, Telly Leung, Michael McElroy, Sheikh Salem Al-Jaber Al-Sabah and Rima Al-Sabah.

MEDIAWATCH — Gabrielle Brown is joining Fox Corporation as chief investor relations officer. She previously was a managing director at UBS.

— Steve Scully is launching “The Briefing with Steve Scully” on SiriusXM’s P.O.T.U.S. channel. Scully is senior VP at the Bipartisan Policy Center and the show will “take listeners inside the stories and conversations that are shaping the day in the nation’s capital.” It will air weekdays from 12-2 p.m. Eastern time starting today.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Tamara Smith is joining PLUS Communications as a public affairs partner. She most recently was group VP for partnerships and strategy at Spectrum Networks and is an Obama and George W. Bush FCC alum.

TRANSITIONS — Jelena McWilliams, Elad Roisman and Jennifer Leete are joining Cravath, Swaine & Moore’s newly opened D.C. office. McWilliams will be a managing partner and previously was chair of the FDIC. Roisman will be a resident in the corporate department and previously was a commissioner and acting chair at the SEC. Leete will be a resident in the litigation department and previously was associate director of enforcement at the SEC. …

… Laynee Buckels is joining Rep. Randy Weber’s (R-Texas) office as comms director. She previously was Press Secretary for Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.). … Samantha Seitz is now media relations manager at White & Case. She most recently was manager for North America PR at Boston Consulting Group. … Katie Glenn is now state policy director at Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America. She previously was government affairs counsel at Americans United for Life.

WEDDINGS — Liza White, PAC director at the National Shooting Sports Foundation, and Scotty Weir, project director at Superior Mechanical Services, got married in Palm Beach, Fla., on May 28. The two met at a Christmas party in 2017 hosted by one of Liza’s childhood friends. Pic

—  Mireille Olivo, senior initiative operations manager for economic progress at Stand Together, and Elliott Fox, managing director for healthcare at Stand Together, got married on Saturday at St. Thomas Aquinas Church with a reception at Hazy Mountain Winery in Charlottesville, Va. The couple met at an Americans for Tax Reform coalition meeting. Pic, via Remy Photos 

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Lauren Claffey Tomlinson, president of Claffey Communications and a Saxby Chambliss alum, and Brock Tomlinson, VP and investment officer for the Mid Atlantic for Prologis, recently welcomed Henry Wallace Tomlinson, who joins big sister Kennedy. Pic Another pic

BONUS BIRTHDAY: Rolling Stone’s Waiss Aramesh

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