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Presented by Meta: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington. | | | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | | The fireworks have burst, the grills are turned off, and Monday’s blast of patriotism across the U.S. for July Fourth has given way to fresh reminders today of the nation’s ongoing malaise. Two new polls lay it out in stark terms: — Americans’ confidence in the country’s institutions continues to drop to record lows in the latest Gallup survey. The presidency and the Supreme Court suffered the most precipitous declines over the past year in the percentage of Americans who have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in them (falling 15 and 11 points, respectively). Congress is still at the bottom of the barrel (just 7%). Small business and the military are the only institutions to break 50%, while organized labor is the only one not to see a decline from a year ago. — An eye-popping 10% of Americans say the country is headed in the right direction, compared to 88% who think it’s on the wrong track, in a new Monmouth poll. That’s a record low going back to 2013. (The generic congressional ballot finds Republicans and Democrats tied at 47%, and President JOE BIDEN’s approval rating has dipped to 36%.)
|  Law enforcement said the suspected shooter in Highland Park, Ill., had planned the attack for weeks. | Charles Rex Arbogast/AP Photo | Meanwhile, the latest details from the very American tragedy that hit Highland Park, Ill., where a mass shooting tore apart a holiday parade, come from the Chicago Sun-Times’ Lynn Sweet, who recounts her experience at the scene in a must-read piece this morning : “I came upon a pool of blood, ruby red blood. There was so much blood that the blood puddle was lumpy because so much already coagulated. The shape of the blood — was this a twisted Rorschach test? — looked like a handgun to me.” — The gun used was obtained legally, authorities said, per the Chicago Tribune . At a briefing this afternoon, law enforcement said the suspected shooter had planned the attack for weeks, fired more than 70 rounds and dressed in women’s clothing during the massacre to conceal himself. — Congressional Democrats called for more gun restrictions, NBC’s Scott Wong and Julie Tsirkin report, though nobody has any illusions about Republican appetites for passing additional legislation after a bipartisan gun bill was just signed into law. — Asked whether he’d visit Highland Park, Biden said today he wasn’t sure. He ordered flags to be flown at half-staff this week. VP KAMALA HARRIS will be in Chicago today, but as of now there have been no changes to her schedule. But here’s one reason for optimism: Wholesale gasoline prices are falling significantly today, which typically presages a downturn at the pump in the coming weeks. That could offer Americans a much-needed respite from stubbornly high prices. (On the flip side, oil prices are plummeting in part due to recession fears, CNBC’s Pippa Stevens reports.) Good Tuesday afternoon.
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Learn how Meta is helping build the metaverse. | | | ALL POLITICS CASH DASH — Florida Gov. RON DESANTIS has amassed $111 million and counting for his reelection bid — a record-breaking sum that he could potentially repurpose for a presidential bid, after the FEC deadlocked on a relevant campaign finance question last month, CNN’s Steve Contorno reports. He could end up with $100 million left over after this year’s campaign. And “the governor’s political team has already identified ways to turn the massive war chest DeSantis has raised for his reelection race into money that could be spent in a federal campaign.” 2024 WATCH — Virginia Gov. GLENN YOUNGKIN raised $2.64 million in the first half of the year for his PAC as he builds out his political operation ahead of 2024, the Washington Examiner’s David Drucker reports . Most immediately, he’s planning to travel the country to stump for GOP candidates in the midterms. “The governor’s haul more than doubled what his three immediate predecessors raised during their first six months in office and reveals a chief executive not content to return to private life after concluding the single, four-year term afforded to him under Virginia’s constitution.” DEEP IN THE HEART OF TEXAS — Gov. GREG ABBOTT is still the favorite to win reelection over BETO O’ROURKE, but the end of Roe v. Wade and the massacre in Uvalde have upended the race: “O’Rourke has been able to keep the race competitive in Texas — and Abbott’s campaign is not taking any chances,” The Texas Tribune’s Patrick Svitek reports . O’Rourke’s campaign has seen a burst of energy of late, while a poll last month showed Abbott’s lead shrinking. But Abbott, who hasn’t moved to the center much for the general, remains confident that inflation and immigration will matter more to voters. And his campaign is attacking O’Rourke much more aggressively than Sen. TED CRUZ did in 2018. STRAIGHT FROM THE HORSE’S MOUTH — NYT’s Patrick Healy and Adrian Rivera are out with another fascinating voter focus group — this time focused on political leaders’ courage. The 10 Americans from different backgrounds and partisan persuasions mostly yearn for more bravery in politics. But as always, people are complex: A Republican-leaning young California woman thinks of Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-N.Y.) first when asked about bravery. There’s plenty of support for Rep. LIZ CHENEY (R-Wyo.) and former VP MIKE PENCE resisting efforts to subvert the election. Six of the 10 think Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan was brave. And three say Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) bucking his party is brave — including a Georgia Dem who respects his steadfastness even though she wanted the extended child tax credit he helped torpedo. JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH TOP-ED — “Republicans should pay attention to Jan. 6 hearings,” writes MICK MULVANEY in the Charlotte Observer today: “When Republicans start testifying under oath that other Republicans lost the 2020 election and then broke the law to try to change that, Republicans should pay attention. Everyone should.”
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | MEDIAWATCH DISINFORMATION DIGEST — False and misleading claims about election fraud are rampant on talk radio, “where conservative hosts reduce the jumble of false voter fraud theories into a two-word mantra: ‘Democrats cheat,’” NYT’s Stuart Thompson reports. It’s an enduring and under-the-radar fount of misinformation in America, with both hosts and callers introducing all manner of conspiracy theories onto the airwaves many times a day — to a still-sizable, often older audience. And many programs are already telling listeners preemptively that the midterms will be fraudulent. THE WHITE HOUSE NOMINATION TRAVAILS — STEVE DETTELBACH for ATF. 120 judicial vacancies. U.S. ambassadors to India, Brazil and South Africa. The list of Biden nominees that need to be confirmed by the Senate (or even named in the first place) is long, and Dems are increasingly worried that they’re running out of time to get them passed before potentially losing the chamber in November, WaPo’s Theo Meyer and Leigh Ann Caldwell report. Some progressives are urging the Biden administration to abandon precedents like the “blue slip” home-state senator deference process or risk leaving crucial posts open. Related op-ed: “Democrats Are Headed for a Disaster With Unfilled Judicial Vacancies,” by Christopher Kang in Slate SPEAKING OF THE 50/50 SENATE — Harris is expected to break the record for tie-breaking votes cast by a VP in the Senate, the L.A. Times’ Noah Bierman reports. She’s already done so 23 times, surpassed only by JOHN CALHOUN with 31 and JOHN ADAMS with 29. It’s not a record that would particularly thrill Democrats, who see it as a reminder of gridlock and the limits of their power. “That dynamic has put enormous scheduling pressure on Harris and all 50 members of the Senate majority.” Sen. PATRICK LEAHY’s (D-Vt.) recent hip surgery is just the latest setback. ABORTION FALLOUT MIDTERMS IMPACT — Democrats think abortion could help them retain crucial moderate women in November, and NYT’s Katie Glueck reports from Grand Rapids, Mich., that suburbanites who dislike Biden increasingly think the GOP has gone too far. She finds a range of opinions among these swing voters, but abortion looms large for many. BARRIE HOLSTEIN, a 58-year-old in Dresher, Pa., who has voted sporadically and been open to both parties: “I’m not political … But it’s enough. I’m pissed. I’m pissed about gun control and I’m pissed about abortion. I really am.” LATEST IN THE STATES — A Florida judge today officially blocked the state’s 15-week abortion ban — but DeSantis then appealed that ruling, meaning the ban remains in effect for now. More from NBC Miami
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD ANNALS OF DIPLOMACY — U.S. Ambassador to Mexico KEN SALAZAR has effectively cozied up to Mexican President ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR. But Salazar’s defense of AMLO’s positions is raising concerns in the Biden administration that he’s going against U.S. policies, without securing important victories for his country, NYT’s Natalie Kitroeff and Maria Abi-Habib report. They have this astonishing paragraph in the story: “The ambassador has rehashed debunked claims of a stolen election used by the Mexican president to fuel distrust in the country’s democracy; questioned the integrity of a U.S.-funded anticorruption nonprofit that had gone up against the president; caused a political storm by appearing to signal support for an energy overhaul the U.S. government opposed; and has stayed silent as Mr. López Obrador relentlessly attacks journalists.” JUDICIARY SQUARE SCOTUS WATCH — The decades-long conservative legal push to overturn Roe finally yielded success. What’s the next big-picture drive for the Supreme Court’s conservative majority? Axios’ Sam Baker reports that restricting the executive branch’s regulatory power will likely play out across myriad cases in the coming years. “Taken together, it’s clear which direction things are headed — the federal government is going to be able to do a lot less than it has been able to do in the past. But the justices are not necessarily united on the specifics of how best to get there or how far to go.” THE ECONOMY MEGATREND — “Red States Are Winning the Post-Pandemic Economy,” by WSJ’s Josh Mitchell: “Workers and employers moved away from the coasts to middle of country and Florida, sparking swifter recoveries there.” POLICY CORNER GETTING SCHOOLED — AmeriCorps, the Education Department and other groups are launching a new drive to recruit 250,000 tutors and mentors for schoolchildren over the next three years, the administration announced today. They’re aiming to help students recoup some of the pandemic-era learning loss that has afflicted classrooms. And the White House is urging schools to use pandemic relief money for after-school, summer and tutoring help. More from Reuters
| | | | INTRODUCING POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | BEYOND THE BELTWAY QUITE THE PIVOT — Republican state leaders across two dozen states are looking to redirect federal pandemic relief funds to tax cuts, ratcheting up federal-state tensions and in some cases possibly violating the law, WaPo’s Tony Romm reports . GOP officials, the Chamber of Commerce and others have challenged the American Rescue Plan’s prohibition on using the money to cut taxes. “In nearly every case, these legal efforts have prevailed, hamstringing the Treasury Department while opening the door for states to pursue their own tax cuts.” Some experts and local advocates warn that the moves could leave states vulnerable to a recession and take money away from the ARP’s intended “targeted relief.” GOING NUCLEAR — As climate change and electrical grid concerns force more creativity in transitioning to clean energy, nuclear power is gaining more supporters, including once-skeptical Democrats in California, NYT’s Ivan Penn reports. Now, “a growing number of political leaders are taking a fresh look at nuclear power — both extending the life of existing reactors and building new ones.” WAR IN UKRAINE LATEST ON THE GROUND — Now that Russia has captured Ukraine’s Luhansk province, its forces could soon mount a similar campaign of devastation in neighboring Donetsk, where some are already fleeing. The big questions now are what Moscow will do next, “and whether Western allies can quickly send enough military aid to help Ukraine turn the tide,” NYT’s Shashank Bengali and Matthew Mpoke Bigg report. But, but, but: The heavy cost to Russia of its Luhansk campaign could slow its progress elsewhere, the AP reports. PLAYBOOKERS WHITE HOUSE MOVE — Deanne Millison has been named chief economic adviser to the VP, per Bloomberg’s Justin Sink, as the White House reshuffles its economic staffers. She currently is Harris’ deputy policy director. STATE DEPARTMENT ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Richard Nephew has been tapped as the head of the U.S. strategy on countering global corruption at the State Department, per Ari Hawkins. He’s a nuclear arms and sanctions expert who worked on Iran and sanctions in previous State stints. (MSNBC’s Hayes Brown: “I’m sorry but ‘Rich Nephew’ is a very funny name for an anti-corruption czar.”) MEDIA MOVE — Darius Dixon is moving up to be deputy managing editor for states at POLITICO. He previously was associate editor on the states team.
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