Biden's important, puzzling democracy speech

From: POLITICO Playbook - Thursday Nov 03,2022 10:17 am
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POLITICO Playbook

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Joe Biden speaking at a podium in front of American flags.

President Biden delivers remarks on preserving and protecting American democracy at Union Station in Washington, D.C. on Nov. 2, 2022. | Francis Chung/E&E News/POLITICO

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DRIVING THE DAY

ALMOST THERE — 5 days left until Election Day. … 30,555,755 early votes cast as of 11:51 p.m. Wednesday, per the United States Elections Project .

BEHIND BIDEN’S ADDRESS — Last month, President JOE BIDEN told his team he wanted to do one more speech on the dangers facing American democracy before the midterms.

Biden had already delivered a grand address on the issue, on Sept. 1 in front of Philadelphia’s Independence Hall. But aides and allies said this week that Biden has become increasingly dismayed as more election deniers emerged from Republican primaries to wage competitive general election campaigns. And, as evidence emerged that democracy had moved up the list of voter concerns, he wanted to take another crack at it.

In a quickly assembled event Tuesday night at Union Station, the president delivered a sharp, clear message asking voters to put election lies and political violence at the top of their minds as they cast their midterm ballots.

Opening his speech by recounting last week’s attack on PAUL PELOSI, the House speaker’s husband, Biden connected that violence, Jan. 6 and other incidents to DONALD TRUMP ’s election lies. “In this moment, we have to confront those lies with the truth,” he said. “The very future of our nation depends on it.”

As Olivia Olander and Chris Cadelago report, “It was a familiar tone from the president, who has warned about threats to democracy before. But with the midterms just days away, it took on a sharper note. Biden blamed [Trump] for stoking divisions in the country and breeding election denialism. And he warned that election-denying Trump acolytes were ‘running for every level of office in America.’”

It was the closing message that met the moment for Biden, if not for other Democrats who have been swamped in Republican attacks focused on inflation, crime and the porous southern border. Biden set aside all of those issues to instead ask Americans to simply vote for candidates who won’t work to destroy democracy.

As one Biden ally familiar with the planning told Playbook last night, “The [theme] of democracy versus autocracy and the notion of an inflection point — that came straight out of Biden's head and mouth.”

The person added that Biden knows “there's not a big interest group [for this]. There's not a Twitter feed for democracy. But that's the moment we find ourselves in.”

That sense of the moment, however, is up for debate, as the NYT’s Peter Baker writes in his step-back piece : “While Democrats largely agree with the argument in Mr. Biden’s speech, not every Democrat thought it was helpful to make the address when candidates are trying to distance themselves from Mr. Biden, whose approval ratings are in the mid-40s, and voters in polls are focused on [other] issues.”

“Issues of democracy are hugely important at this moment and in next week’s election. Totally appropriate for @POTUS to address them,” tweeted DAVID AXELROD . “Still, as a matter of practical politics, I doubt many Ds in marginal races are eager for him to be on TV tonight.”

THE SENATE GOP ‘RIPPLE’ Two months ago, Senate Republicans seemed adrift — cursed with underwhelming, gaffe- and scandal-prone candidates who had been swamped with Democratic spending. But with just days till polls close, the Senate outlook has much improved for the GOP, our Burgess Everett, Natalie Allison and Marianna Levine write this morning , “thanks to a late-game spending surge and a deteriorating national environment for Democrats.”

MITCH McCONNELL’s return as majority leader is by no means assured, but there are new hints that Republicans see that outcome within grasp — and Democrats see their razor-thin majority slipping away.

— Sen. JONI ERNST (R-Iowa) , a leadership deputy, outright predicts a GOP majority: “We’re going to get the Senate next Tuesday.”

— Another GOP senator, granted anonymity to candidly assess the party’s chances, said the election “might be a red ripple” — enough to flip the majority but just barely.

— Sen. TAMMY BALDWIN (D-Wis.) made note of recent midterm history, where late-breaking races are “going to go in the direction against the current president” and it’s “the exception when it doesn’t.”

The upshot: Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania are in toss-up territory after late surges by the GOP candidates, and Republicans aren’t far back in Arizona and New Hampshire. Wins in the latter two states would mean that “red ripple” becomes a bona fide wave.

VEEP FILES — VP KAMALA HARRIS has finally found her footing two years into the job, Chris Cadelago and Eugene report this morning , and that new comfort has been reflected in her midterm plans — where she has found ways to carve her own path while remaining loyal to the larger administration and its priorities.

Earlier this year, Harris asked aides to help get her on the road at least three days a week . Her meetings and events have focused on smaller groups and building out a network among key constituencies — specifically women, young people and voters of color, her aides said.

Those around Harris said the past few months have been a period of relative stability for the VP, allowing her to put her painful early months marked by uneven performances and staffing troubles firmly into the past.

The speaking hiccups are still there, magnified by critics on Twitter, but they come less frequently. The struggles to gain broader relevance exist, but there’s less chaos swirling around her. Things have improved to the point that Harris’s allies no longer vent about Beltway coverage of her, they vent about the lack of it.

KAREN FINNEY, a Democratic strategist who has sat in on events with Harris, acknowledged that “part of the nature of the job of vice president is if you’re doing a good job, we don't hear much about you. That is a challenge in and of itself, because then people don’t know as much about what you’re doing.”

Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade , Eugene Daniels , Ryan Lizza .

 

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a logo that reads 2022 ELECTIONS

The last Republican wave election, in 2010, decimated the ranks of rural moderate Democrats in Congress. If another GOP wave materializes this year, they may be at risk of being extinguished entirely.

Elena Schneider reports this morning from western Wisconsin, where Democrat BRAD PFAFF is fighting to keep his party’s hands on the House seat being vacated by longtime Rep. RON KIND. Pfaff is getting relatively little help from national party organs, another signal that Democrats see their present and future paths to victory running through the suburbs, not the sticks.

That may be a defensible strategy when it comes to building a House majority, but many Democrats are openly worrying it may be dooming the party in statewide races. The Democratic rural collapse, they argue, cannot necessarily be offset in the cities and suburbs.

“If I get washed away, it’s going to be very, very difficult for TONY EVERS or MANDELA BARNES to win this state,” Pfaff said, referring to Wisconsin’s Democratic governor and Senate nominee.

Elena told Playbook on Wednesday night that the math in Wisconsin also applies to Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and other swing states with significant rural populations: “If Democrats can lose by less in rural areas, then their advantages in rural and urban centers can push them over the top. But if they're swamped in rural counties, like Democrat TERRY McAULIFFE was in Virginia last year, it's much harder to hang on.”

BIG PICTURE

JUST POSTED — “Why Democrats Are Losing Hispanic Voters,” by The Atlantic’s Tim Alberta

THE SPLIT-TICKET EQUATION — “In final stretch, candidates sharpen their appeals to ‘ticket-splitting’ voters,” by NBC’s Sahil Kapur, Marc Caputo and Henry Gomez in Atlanta: “Ticket-splitters are playing a starring role in 2022 polls, but a key unanswered question is whether most of them will persist in bifurcating their ballots or end up going all-in with one party. … Recent history suggests ticket-splitters are dwindling in an era of intensifying tribalism.”

WATCHING THE WATCHERS — “Judge limits ballot drop box monitoring in Arizona after intimidation claims,” by WaPo’s Annabelle Timsit: “The far-reaching order from U.S. District Judge MICHAEL LIBURDI … prevents drop-box watchers from taking photos or videos of voters and using the material to spread baseless allegations of electoral fraud.”

TRAIL MIX — “In Texas, a Battle for Hispanic Voters Moves to the Cities,” by NYT’s Edgar Sandoval and J. David Goodman in San Antonio … “GOP works to win over Asian Americans – and draws ‘race-baiting’ charges,” by WaPo’s Hannah Knowles in Westminster, Calif.

BACK LIKE THEY NEVER LEFT — “Lawyers Who Advanced Trump’s Election Challenges Return for Midterms,” by NYT’s Nick Corasaniti and Alexandra Berzon

INDECISIVE ON IMMIGRATION — “Democrats Twist and Turn on Immigration as Republicans Attack in Waves,” by NYT’s Jazmine Ulloa

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Power the Polls, a nonpartisan initiative to enlist a new generation of poll workers, is announcing that it has recruited over 265,000 potential poll workers since it relaunched in May 2022. The organization has worked with more than 500 jurisdictions across 42 states to address poll worker needs.

BATTLE FOR THE SENATE

LETTER FROM OHIO — Our colleague David Siders writes from Portsmouth, Ohio , on TIM RYAN’s unlikely run in the Senate race that has unexpectedly come down to the wire thanks to the Democratic congressman’s messaging success — a much-needed lesson for Dems this year and beyond. “But the longer Ryan has kept the Senate race in Ohio close — now trailing Vance by about 2 percentage points, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average — it isn’t clear that anything he says about the economy is helping him in his campaign as much as his savaging of Vance. The real model that Ryan may be offering Democrats is how, in a red state, to tear a Trump-aligned Republican down.”

WHAT WALKER WANTS — “Amid scandals, Herschel Walker hopes voters ‘believe in redemption,’” by WaPo’s Mary Jordan in Pooler, Ga.: “Many [HERSCHEL] WALKER supporters interviewed here over three days last month are willing to forget — or at least not think too much — about the allegations against him because he supports a Republican agenda that aligns with their beliefs.”

UP FOR DEBATE — “Sen. Maggie Hassan, Don Bolduc spar over abortion, energy policy in Granite State Debate,” by WMUR’s Kirk Enstrom … “Sen. Blumenthal battles Republican Leora Levy in first and only debate,” by the Hartford Courant’s Christopher Keating

BIRDS OF A FEATHER — Arizona GOP Senate candidate BLAKE MASTERS told the Daily Mail that he is “prepared to be a thorn in the side of party leader Mitch McConnell if he pulls off a win” and that he’ll take his cues from Democratic Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA. “She’s a very talented politician. She’s good. She’s active. She’s really actively engaged.” Masters said. “And I hear this from Republicans - if you got a problem you call Sinema’s office you get a response.” He continued: CHUCK SCHUMER owns MARK KELLY. … Chuck Schumer does not own Kyrsten Sinema. He wishes he did. Everyone knows McConnell won't own me.”

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE

2024 IS THE NEW 2022 — “West Virginia’s Mooney runs for Congress but aims at Manchin,” by AP’s Leah Willingham in Charleston, W.Va.: “[Rep. ALEX] MOONEY is expected to breeze to victory in deep-red West Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District, and he’s all but completely ignored [opponent BARRY] WENDELL. Instead, he’s spending much of his energy on [Democratic Sen. JOE] MANCHIN. … The Republican congressman’s focus on Manchin is fueling speculation that he might run against him in 2024, which he’s doing nothing to tamp down. In an interview with the AP, Mooney said a Senate race is something to consider.”

BATTLE FOR THE STATES

AT THE SAME TIME — “‘Happy’ and ‘mad’: 2 visions in Colorado governor’s race,” by AP’s James Anderson in Boulder, Colo.: “Seeking a second term as Colorado’s governor, Democrat JARED POLIS refers to himself with a simple phrase as he tries to fend off a barrage of attacks from a challenger trying to become the state’s first Republican governor since 2007: ‘Happy dad.’ The father of two’s optimism is a rebuttal to Republican HEIDI GANAHL , who is trying to channel the angst of parents worried about underperforming schools, drugs and post-pandemic crime this mid-term election by using the campaign slogan ‘#MadMom’ and painting a darker portrait of the state.”

BACKSTORY — “How Doug Mastriano ended up in a Holocaust film that troubles scholars,” by WaPo’s Beth Reinhard, Colby Itkowitz and Rosalind Helderman

BY THE NUMBERS — “Democrats spend heavily on abortion ads in key gubernatorial races,” by WaPo’s Kimberly Kindy and Greg Morton: “A Washington Post analysis … finds that 45 percent of Democratic candidates’ and issue groups’ TV advertising dollars in five states — Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania — has been spent on abortion ads.”

HOT POLLS

Wisconsin: Republican Sen. RON JOHNSON is leading Democrat MANDELA BARNES 50% to 48% in the final Marquette Law School Poll ahead of Election Day. (For reference, Johnson led 52% to 46% in the previous poll.) Meanwhile, Democratic Gov. TONY EVERS and Republican TIM MICHELS are locked up at 48% in the gubernatorial race.

Pennsylvania: Democrat JOHN FETTERMAN leads Republican MEHMET OZ 48% to 44%, per a new Monmouth University poll .

Colorado: Democratic Sen. MICHAEL BENNET holds a slim lead over Republican JOE O’DEA, 47.6% to 46.1%, per a Trafalgar Group poll .

HOT ADS

Via Steve Shepard

New Hampshire: “You need an outsider,” Republican DON BOLDUC says in his latest ad hitting Democratic Sen. MAGGIE HASSAN on the economy, energy and being part of the “status quo.” “Let’s live free or die, baby,” Bolduc says in closing, a reference to the state motto.

 

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BIDEN’S THURSDAY (all times Eastern):

9 a.m.: The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief.

10:30 a.m.: Biden will depart the White House en route to Albuquerque, N.M.

3:45 p.m.: Biden will deliver remarks on student debt relief.

5:45 p.m.: Biden will participate in a rally for Democrats.

6:55 p.m.: Biden will depart Albuquerque en route to San Diego, Calif.

9:30 p.m.: Biden will participate in a political event for Rep. MIKE LEVIN.

Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will gaggle aboard Air Force One en route to Albuquerque.

HARRIS’ THURSDAY:

3:10 p.m.: The VP will depart D.C. en route to New York City.

5:50 p.m.: Harris will participate in a get-out-the-vote event with New York Gov. KATHY HOCHUL.

7 p.m.: Harris will depart New York to return to D.C.

The HOUSE and the SENATE are out

 

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PHOTO OF THE DAY

Military helicopters take off from the West Lawn of the Capitol during a casualty evacuation exercise by the U.S. Capitol Police, in Washington, Wednesday, Nov. 2, 2022.

Military helicopters take off from the West Lawn of the Capitol during a casualty evacuation exercise by the U.S. Capitol Police, in Washington, Wednesday, Nov. 2, 2022. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo

PLAYBOOK READS

THE WHITE HOUSE

SMILING THROUGH IT — Biden is trying desperately to keep the nation’s hopes up, frequently declaring he’s never felt more hopeful about America, AP’s Zeke Miller writes . “Yet this refrain of Biden’s presidency — this promise that things will get better — is butting up against his own dire political projections: A Congress potentially controlled by what he’s labeled ‘ultra-MAGA’ Republicans as he faces midterm elections that will define, and quite possibly stifle, the next two years of his term.”

INVESTING IN ENERGY — The Biden administration on Wednesday announced it’s “making $4.5 billion available through a low-income home energy assistance program to help with heating costs heading into what is expected to be a brutal winter,” AP’s Matthew Daly writes . That’s a $1 billion boost over the usual baseline but short of the $8 billion delivered last year as part of the American Rescue Plan.

THAT COLOR BLUE — The White House is undecided on whether it will pay Twitter in order to keep the verified status for its various accounts amid ELON MUSK’s new proposed policy. “I don’t believe it’s an issue that made it to the president’s desk yet, not a conversation that the president is aware of,” press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE said on Wednesday. She “sidestepped” a question about Musk’s takeover and its larger implications, Bloomberg’s Jennifer Jacobs and Josh Wingrove write .

CONGRESS

PELOSI LATEST — California Rep. ZOE LOFGREN, the top Democrat on the House Administration Committee, sent a letter to Capitol Police chief J. THOMAS MANGER seeking answers and accountability in the wake of the attack on Paul Pelosi at the San Francisco home he shares with Speaker NANCY PELOSI. In the five-page letter, Lofgren “questioned several of the department’s policies and practices, including an apparent decision to turn down an invitation from the F.B.I. for some of its officers to join terrorism task forces that investigate threats against members of Congress,” NYT’s Luke Broadwater reports .

THE AGENDA PREVIEW — “Republicans, Eyeing Majority, Float Changes to Social Security and Medicare,” by NYT’s Jim Tankersley: While leaders have not details their economic plans, some influential members have proposed “raising the age for collecting Social Security benefits to 70 from 67 and requiring many older Americans to pay higher premiums for their health coverage.”

TERMS OF ENGAGEMENT — House Minority Leader KEVIN McCARTHY is “telling U.S. Chamber of Commerce board members and state leaders the organization must undertake a complete leadership change and replace current president and CEO SUZANNE CLARK,” Axios’ Hans Nichols and Jonathan Swan report . “McCarthy’s direct conversations make clear he will not work with Clark and her leadership team if Republicans win control and he becomes House speaker.”

MORE POLITICS

WAITING IN THE WINGS — Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS “appears to be reconsidering his plans to run” against Trump in a potential 2024 presidential primary, Vanity Fair’s Gabe Sherman reports , citing “four prominent Republicans.”

What Sherman has heard: Per one source, “DeSantis’s calculus is that, at age 44, he can easily wait until the next presidential cycle, so why risk a brutal primary fight against a pugilist like Trump?”

SWEET GIG IF YOU CAN GET IT — PETE RICKETTS’ days as Nebraska governor are ticking down quickly. But, if he plays his cards right, he could already have his next gig lined up by the time he has to clear out of his office — which just may coincide perfectly with Sen. BEN SASSE’s exit from Congress. “In an interview with POLITICO, Ricketts made no secret of his fondness for the Senate, in contrast to other GOP governors who have turned down opportunities to run for seats in what they view as a chamber of dysfunction,” our colleague Jordain Carney reports from Lincoln .

STEERING CLEAR — “Newsom stays on sidelines of tightening LA mayor’s race,” by Lara Korte in Sacramento

 

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TRUMP CARDS

WHO’S TALKING — “Top Trump adviser granted immunity for testifying in Mar-a-Lago papers case,” by The Guardian’s Hugo Lowell: “The justice department’s interest with [KASH] PATEL centers on his claims that the documents found at Mar-a-Lago were declassified, how the documents came to end up at the property, and how Trump’s aides and lawyers responded to requests for their return, the sources said.”

SETTLING UP — Trump on Wednesday “reached a settlement in a civil case brought by protesters who said they were attacked by his bodyguards in 2015, a deal that will spare the former president and his family business the prospect of two simultaneous trials in New York State court,” NYT’s Jonah Bromwich reports .

JUST POSTED — “Trump hasn’t announced a 2024 bid. But he’s acting like he’s running,” by WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf, Josh Dawsey and Michael Scherer

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

AT THE OATH KEEPERS TRIAL — A key witness said in testimony on Wednesday that Oath Keepers founder STEWART RHODES “tried to get a message to then-President Donald Trump that urged him to fight to stay in power and ‘save the republic,’” AP’s Lindsay Whitehurst reports . “Rhodes … said in his message, sent through an intermediary, that the Oath Keepers would support the Republican president if he invoked the Insurrection Act and called them up as a militia.” JASON ALPERS, the intermediary who testified on Wednesday, said he declined to deliver the message.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA — “North Korea keeps up missile barrage with ICBM,” by AP’s Kim Tong-hyung and Mari Yamaguchi in Seoul

I THINK I’VE SEEN THIS FILM BEFORE — “Bolsonaro supporters call on military to keep him in power,” by AP’s Diane Jeantet and Mauricio Savarese in Rio de Janeiro

DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — “Biden froze out China’s ambassador. He may regret that,” by Phelim Kine

MEDIAWATCH

SLOTTING IN — “CNN’s Primetime Plans Hit Snag As Jake Tapper Plans to Return to Afternoon Show,” by Variety’s Brian Steinberg: “By several accounts, [new CNN CEO CHRIS] LICHT had settled on Tapper as the new anchor for CNN’s 9 p.m. hour, still one of the most-watched time slots in cable news. But the anchor has cautioned he was concerned about what the move might mean for his personal life and family, according to two people familiar with the matter.”

INTERESTING HIRE — “News Corp Beefs Up Lobbying Corps With Senate Aide Hire,” by Bloomberg’s Emily Birnbaum: “RACHEL BISSEX, a former senior aide on the Senate Judiciary Committee, has garnered a reputation for opposing Alphabet Inc.’s Google, Meta Platforms Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Apple Inc. on Capitol Hill. She’s now News Corp.’s vice president of federal government affairs, the company said on Wednesday night.”

VALLEY TALK

MUSK RESTORING MODERATION — Musk “single-handedly led a call on Tuesday with civil rights groups in an effort to assure them that he would curtail hate speech — and stop the spread of misinformation ahead of the midterm elections,” Rebecca Kern and Mark Scott report . The big news: “Musk said that Twitter employees responsible for election integrity who had been locked out of their moderation tools during the company’s acquisition will have their access reinstated by the end of the week, three people on the call confirmed. Musk also said that users banned by the platform — including former President Donald Trump — will remain off the site ‘for at least a few more weeks.’”

WHAT’S NEXT — From Bloomberg’s Edward Ludlow and Kurt Wagner: “Musk Plans to Eliminate Half of Twitter Jobs to Cut Costs”“Elon Musk Aims to Start Charging for Twitter Verification Next Week”

THE STEPBACK — “Elon Musk Takes a Page Out of Mark Zuckerberg’s Social Media Playbook,” by NYT’s Kate Conger, Ryan Mac and Tiffany Hsu

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

The White House deleted a bad tweet .

Cafe Milano is celebrating its 30th anniversary today.

Mando, the Washington Commanders’ official dog, was at the Capitol to raise awareness for ending veteran suicide.

SPOTTED at a party at Juleanna Glover’s house on Wednesday night celebrating Ted Gayer’s new job as the president of the Niskanen Center: Molly Ball, Matt Cooper, Idrees Kaldoon, Bill Kristol, Margaret Carlson, Ruth Marcus, JP Freire, Adam Green, Matt Cooper, Alexander Nazaryan, Jonathan Rauch, Michael Schaffer, Daniel Lippman, Jamie Kirchick, Jane Caldwell and Lucy Caldwell.

MEDIA MOVES — Molly Jong-Fast is joining Vanity Fair as a special correspondent, “writing regularly on these turbulent times in politics and American culture,” per NYT’s  Michael Grynbaum . … Hugo Rojo has been promoted to executive director for comms at CBS News. He previously was director of comms.

TRANSITION — Carrie Sheffield is now director of the America First Policy Institute’s Center for the American Worker and Director of the Center for American Values. She previously was a senior policy analyst for the Independent Women's Forum.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) … Reps. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.) and Michelle Fischbach (R-Minn.) … Michael DukakisAnna WintourKatie Packer Beeson … Newsmax’s Jenn PellegrinoJeff Brownlee of Americans for Prosperity … Phyllis Cuttino of the Climate Reality Project … Christie Stephenson Paul Brathwaite of Federal Street Strategies … POLITICO’s Anthony Adragna, Alfred Ng and Ryan Hendrixson … KHN’s Renuka RayasamKatie Fricchione ... Gabby Adler Amie KershnerQuentin FulksMinh-Thu Pham of New American Voices … Tara Rountree of Rep. Donald McEachin’s (D-Va.) office … Amy Rosenbaum ... Brian Babcock-Lumish ... Christian Haines ... Julian Baird Gewirtz ... Shawn Rusterholz of the American Petroleum Institute ... Stuart Rosenberg ... Sky GallegosBob Van Heuvelen Charlie Hurt … former Rep. Lynn Woolsey (D-Calif.) … CAA’s Rachel Adler

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Correction: Wednesday’s Playbook misspelled the name of New Hampshire Senate candidate Don Bolduc.

 

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