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Presented by Meta: The unofficial guide to official Washington. | | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza , Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
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Former President Donald Trump looks out at the audience as he speaks at Mar-a-lago on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022, in Palm Beach, Fla | Andrew Harnik/AP Photo | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | MILESTONE — “World population to reach 8 billion on 15 November 2022,” per the U.N. GOP ON THE CUSP — “Democrats’ slim hopes to retain the House majority were just about extinguished Monday,” Zach Montellaro and David Cohen write , after three late-night AP calls put Republicans ONE SEAT AWAY from securing a House majority. The races: CA-41 (Rep. KEN CALVERT), CA-45 (MICHELLE STEEL) and NY-22 (BRANDON WILLIAMS ) went on the board at 11 p.m., giving the GOP 217 seats. Republican candidates lead in four more races: CA-03 (KEVIN KILEY vs. KERMIT JONES), CA-22 (Rep. DAVID VALADAO vs. RUDY SALAS), CA-27 (Rep. MIKE GARCIA vs. CHRISTY SMITH ) and CO-08 (Rep. LAUREN BOEBERT vs. ADAM FRISCH). A NEW GOP? — As the Republican Party wrestles with whether it should stick with its three current leaders — DONALD TRUMP, KEVIN McCARTHY and MITCH McCONNELL — today is crucial, especially for the first two. McCarthy faces a vote of House Republicans on whether he will be their nominee for speaker in January. He should easily pass that test, but the margin will tell us how much trouble he’s in. (More on McCarthy below.) And then tonight at 9 p.m., Trump is scheduled to announce his third campaign for president. The best way to understand the context of this announcement is to take a spin through the last 24 hours of Trump news. The big takeaway is that the movement on the right to abandon Trump is the strongest it’s been since the days after Jan. 6, 2021. (But, then again, it wasn’t very strong back then.) 1. The governing dramas of the last Trump administration were suddenly back in the headlines … — Former Trump Chief of Staff JOHN KELLY tells the NYT’s Mike Schmidt that, while president, Trump “wanted a number of his perceived political enemies to be investigated by the Internal Revenue Service” — including former FBI Director JAMES COMEY and deputy ANDREW McCABE. — House Oversight chair CAROLYN MALONEY (D-N.Y.) released new documents showing six nations spent $750,000 at the Trump Hotel: “These documents sharply call into question the extent to which President Trump was guided by his personal financial interest while in office rather than the best interests of the American people.” — The NYT’s Eric Lipton, Maggie Haberman and Ben Protess put Trump’s foreign business entanglements front and center once again: “The Trump family has struck a deal with a Saudi-based real estate company to license its name to a housing and golf complex that will be built in Oman, renewing a swirl of questions about … Trump’s mixing of politics and business just as he appears poised to announce a third presidential candidacy.” — And the fallout from Jan. 6 continues to percolate with the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reporting on new developments in the Georgia criminal probe of Trump’s meddling in the state’s 2020 elections — including grand jury testimony expected today from GOP Gov. BRIAN KEMP. 2. Fellow Republicans on and off Capitol Hill reacted to Trump’s forthcoming run with a mix of silence, trepidation and revulsion … — Asked whether she would endorse Trump, Sen. CYNTHIA LUMMIS (R-Wyo.) told reporters : “I don’t think that’s the right question. I think the question is, who is the current leader of the Republican Party?” Her answer: “RON DeSANTIS.” Meanwhile, Rep. MARIA ELVIRA SALAZAR (R-Fla.) also appeared to board the RDS bus : “Let me tell you something: I do know the next Republican presidential contender is coming from Florida.” — Pillars of the GOP establishment felt newly empowered to air their reservations about another Trump candidacy, with Sen. MITT ROMNEY (R-Utah) comparing Trump to a past-his-prime pitching ace: “He’s been on the mound and lost three straight games. If we want to start winning, we need someone else on the mound.” Outgoing Massachusetts Gov. CHARLIE BAKER (R-Mass.) waded into the national thicket to urge the GOP “to move past President Trump.” — Even members thought of as reliable Trump allies are holding back their endorsements ahead of the scheduled launch: Rep. DAN MEUSER (R-Pa.), who helped lead the effort to overturn his state’s 2020 presidential vote, told our Hill team : “[A]bsolutely I’m going to be giving strong consideration to him. But I’m going to withhold an endorsement until we see where things go.” Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) said, “I’ll tell you after Georgia,” while McCarthy said, “right now we’re working towards getting the Congress back.” 3. Key elements of the GOP’s conservative coalition amplified their Trump qualms and continued to elevate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis … — Club for Growth President DAVID McINTOSH released polling showing Trump’s support slipping among Republicans to DeSantis’s benefit: “Republicans need to be united behind a strong candidate and a platform that shows voters real solutions to beat [President JOE] BIDEN and the Democrats in 2024,” he said. Another poll, from the Republican Party of Texas , showed DeSantis emerging as a serious rival to Trump among hardcore GOP voters. — Dozens of Utah lawmakers urged DeSantis to launch a presidential run: “We recognize the need for a strong leader to guide and direct our nation, someone with a proven track record, strong conservative foundation, and who understands the operations of state government. We need a leader who will strengthen and unify the nation." — GOP megadonor KEN GRIFFIN publicly slammed Trump in very Trumpian terms: “I’d like to think that the Republican party is ready to move on from somebody who has been for this party a three-time loser.” 4. The various outposts of RUPERT MURDOCH’s media empire continued to elevate anti-Trump dismay … — Sen. PAT TOOMEY (R-Pa.) laid his midterm analysis out on Fox News: “Candidates that were seen as ‘ultra’ and all about the previous president and re-litigating the last election — they went down in flames.” — The NY Post has a buzzy item sourced to a Trump “insider” on JARED KUSHNER and IVANKA TRUMP keeping their distance: “Trump thought he could convince Ivanka this weekend to come back and campaign for him as she was the most requested speaker after the president himself last time around… but so far she’s resisting his entreaties and holding firm, as is Jared.” — The WSJ editorial board lays it out plain : “The GOP, and the country, would be best served if Mr. Trump ceded the field to the next generation of Republican leaders to compete for the nomination in 2024. If Mr. Trump insists on running, then Republican voters will have to decide if they want to nominate the man most likely to produce a GOP loss and total power for the progressive left.” 5. KARI LAKE was projected to lose the Arizona governor race, putting an exclamation point on Trump’s dismal endorsement record … — NBC News’ Allan Smith offered a near-final scorecard : Of the 16 candidates that Trump endorsed in governor, Senate and secretary of state races in states that Biden won, only two — Wisconsin Sen. RON JOHNSON and Nevada Gov.-elect JOE LOMBARDO — have won their general elections. Trump could notch a third win if HERSCHEL WALKER can win the Dec. 6 Georgia Senate runoff. Not every Republican was such a downer about the former president’s role. J.D. Vance wrote an essay called, “Don’t blame Trump.” A new POLITICO-Morning Consult poll, however, shows many Republicans do seem to be blaming him. “Among all voters surveyed, 65 percent said Trump should probably or definitely not run again (with 53 percent in the definite camp),” report Meridith McGraw and Chris Cadelago . The same poll shows that in a matchup against Trump, DeSantis has gained seven points and Trump has dropped one point since our last survey. Toplines … Crosstabs And as for the candidate himself, he wrote on Truth Social, “Hopefully TODAY will turn out to be one of the most important days in the history of our Country!” Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with your prediction of the McCarthy vote today: Rachael Bade , Eugene Daniels , Ryan Lizza .
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Explore our tools and set them up today. | | | HOUSE GOP ELECTIONS TODAY — It’s a big day for McCarthy, who today will get the nomination to become speaker in a secret-ballot leadership election. That will give the California Republican a few short weeks to muster the 218 votes to clinch the gavel. And while the math is tough, he’s already seeing a few positive signs. (1) For one, Monday’s closed-door candidate forum yesterday was mostly devoid of fireworks, a surprise given all the tough talk from McCarthy’s critics. (2) The House Freedom Caucus is already fracturing. Yesterday, none other than Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) argued on STEVE BANNON’s podcast that the group’s attempt to leverage their votes for rules changes was a “bad strategy” that would backfire on the GOP. Better, she argued, to unite behind McCarthy. (3) McCarthy got some moderate cover. Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.) told NBC’s Scott Wong and Kyle Stewart that if the conference doesn’t unite behind a candidate, he’ll work with Dems to elect a moderate GOP lawmaker to lead: “I will support Kevin McCarthy, but if we do get to that point, I do want the country to work and we need to govern,” Bacon told them. Still, the likely slim GOP majority makes it tough for McCarthy, particularly given that members like Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) are vowing never to vote for him no matter what. “I'm not voting for him tomorrow. I'm not voting for him on the floor. And I am certain that there is a critical mass of people who hold my precise view,” Gaetz said on the Charlie Kirk Show . One thing to watch: The WSJ scooped yesterday that McCarthy allies had reached out to Rep. HENRY CUELLAR (D-Texas) to see if he might back the GOP leader for speaker and switch parties to pad his majority. But turning to Democrats for votes would infuriate the right, and the GOP leader committed yesterday that he would not rely on Democrats to secure 218. More House GOP headlines: “McCarthy allies press moderate Dem to switch parties amid speakership turmoil,” POLITICO ... “Kevin McCarthy seeks to assuage House Republican concerns behind closed doors ahead of leadership election,” CNN ... “Conservatives warn McCarthy: You don't have the votes for speaker,” NBC News ... “Ginni Thomas, other conservatives call on GOP to delay leadership elections,” WaPo ... “McCarthy Scrounges for Support to Become Speaker as Republicans Feud,” NYT
| | | | A message from Instagram:   | | | | | BIDEN’S TUESDAY: Earlier today, the president arrived at the G-20 summit, greeted Indonesian President JOKO WIDODO, attended multiple working sessions and a social luncheon, co-hosted an event with Widodo and European Commission President URSULA VON DER LEYEN, met with Italian PM GIORGIA MELONI , and will attend the G-20 gala dinner at 6:30 a.m.
VP KAMALA HARRIS’ TUESDAY: The VP has nothing on her public schedule.
The HOUSE will meet at 10 a.m.
The SENATE will meet at 11 a.m. to resume consideration of several judicial nominations. The Senate Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing on the farm bill at 10 a.m. | | | | | | POLITICO APP USERS: UPGRADE YOUR APP BY DECEMBER 19! We recently upgraded the POLITICO app with a fresh look and improved features for easier access to POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Starting December 19, users will no longer have access to the previous version of the app. Update your app today to stay on top of essential political news, insights, and analysis from the best journalists in the business. UPDATE iOS APP – UPDATE ANDROID APP . | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) speaks with reporters after departing a House Republican leadership candidate forum at the U.S. Capitol on Nov. 14, 2022. | Francis Chung/E&E News/POLITICO | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | MORE MIDTERMS FALLOUT HOUSE TICK TOCK — “'The weirdest election I've ever been a part of': How the GOP almost blew the House,” by Ally Mutnick, Sarah Ferris and Elena Schneider: “No one moment was the singular undoing of House Republicans’ lofty hopes. But GOP leaders, in their confidence about winning the election, underestimated how much abortion and concerns over extremist candidates would galvanize the Democratic base, shrinking the battlefield. … Republicans also grappled with an emboldened MAGA base, egged on by Trump, that elevated far-right — and unelectable — candidates in key battleground districts. The GOP’s successes in boosting the strongest recruits yielded crucial pickups that may yet make the difference between winning and losing the chamber. But the impossible task of shaping every primary meant weak nominees cost them in several places.” INSIDE LAKE HQ — WaPo’s Yvonne Wingett Sanchez and Isaac Stanley-Becker had the report earlier on Monday night from inside the Lake campaign war room where she was “being advised by GOP operatives and some of her closest aides to take a measured approach and not ‘storm the castle.’” Something to watch: “Discussions have ranged from how Lake could acknowledge a loss to whether she should adopt Trump’s playbook and claim the election was stolen from her. Some want her message to center on problems with printers on Election Day that affected 30 percent of polling sites.” THE OTHER ARIZONA RACE — “Kris Mayes holds lead over Abe Hamadeh in Ariz. attorney general election; recount appears likely,” by the Arizona Republic’s Tara Kavaler WAY DOWN-BALLOT — “Arizona voters approve extending in-state college tuition breaks to non-citizens,” AP — “‘Too hyperbolic’? School board parental rights push falters,” by AP’s Collin Binkley: “Conservative groups that sought to get hundreds of ‘parents’ rights’ activists elected to local school boards largely fell short in last week’s midterm elections, notching notable wins in some Republican strongholds but failing to gain a groundswell of support among moderate voters.” THE WHITE HOUSE LOAN LURCH — White House officials are considering extending a moratorium on student debt payments after a federal appeals court blocked the Biden administrations’ student debt relief plan, “according to two people with knowledge of the matter,” WaPo’s Jeff Stein reports. “The moratorium is not expected to be indefinitely extended under Biden’s tenure, the people said, but extending it at least temporarily would provide some relief to borrowers. It is unclear if the president has signed off on the idea yet or been involved in the planning, though senior aides have discussed the move.” CONGRESS JMART SCOOP — Jonathan Martin has exclusive details of a recent phone call between the president and House speaker in which Biden urged her to remain in Congress: “‘I hope you stick,’ Biden told [Speaker NANCY] PELOSI in a phone call after congratulating her on the caucus’s unexpected victories and asking about her convalescing husband, according to Democrats familiar with the conversation. Pelosi interjected to note her personal considerations and Biden continued, ‘I know it’s family first but I hope you stick,’ before Pelosi deflected again.” SCHUMER SITDOWN — CHUCK SCHUMER sat down with our colleagues Marianne LeVine and Burgess Everett to talk about holding his title as Senate majority leader and where his caucus goes from here: “My message to Democrats is: Let’s roll up our sleeves and try to get things done, and that may mean compromising with Republicans. What gives me some hope: Embracing MAGA is a loser politically for the Republican Party.” What else Schumer said: When asked whether Speaker Nancy Pelosi should stay on as House Democratic leader, Schumer was unequivocal: “I hope she does, I love her.” NRCC LATEST — @Olivia_Beavers : “Rep. DARIN LaHOOD has called Rep. RICHARD HUDSON to let him know he is dropping out of the NRCC race, wants to focus on family and his current panels, a source close to matter tells me.” Olivia had all the reports from the Republican jockeying on Monday WHAT’S NEXT FOR ABORTION — “Dems won the midterms on Roe. Congress is another story,” by Marianne LeVine and Holly Otterbein: “In interviews, Democratic senators suggested their focus looking ahead would be on blocking bills like Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R-S.C.) proposed 15-week abortion ban, which openly split the GOP after its September introduction.” 2024 WATCH STAFFING UP — As Trump prepares to announce his campaign, Pence releases his new book, and the 2024 GOP cattle calls begin in earnest, the DNC is staffing up in the early states and launching a new embed program to bracket Republican candidates on the trail, our colleague Chris Cadelago reports. The first round of hires will begin soon and will include press staff in the Republican early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina — as well as in Trump/DeSantis country in Florida. The embeds will focus on driving local coverage, and the staff will grow as the election unfolds. “Republicans lost because of their extreme MAGA agenda and we are already laying the groundwork to continue to hold them accountable for that agenda over the next two years,” DNC comms director KRISTEN ORTHMAN said.
| | | | A message from Instagram:   | | | TRUMP CARDS MAR-A-LAGO LATEST — “Investigators see ego, not money, as Trump’s motive on classified papers,” by WaPo’s Devlin Barrett and Josh Dawsey: “As part of the investigation, federal authorities reviewed the classified documents that were recovered from Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home and private club, looking to see if the types of information contained in them pointed to any kind of pattern or similarities, according to these people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss an ongoing investigation. “That review has not found any apparent business advantage to the types of classified information in Trump’s possession, these people said. FBI interviews with witnesses so far, they said, also do not point to any nefarious effort by Trump to leverage, sell, or use the government secrets. Instead, the former president seemed motivated by a more basic desire not to give up what he believed was his property, these people said.” RELIEF FOR RUDY — “Giuliani Will Not Face Federal Charges Over Lobbying, Prosecutors Say,” by NYT’s William Rashbaum and Ben Protess JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH INSIDE MEN — “F.B.I. Had Informants in Proud Boys, Court Papers Suggest,” by NYT’s Alan Feuer and Adam Goldman: “The F.B.I. had as many as eight informants inside the far-right Proud Boys in the months surrounding the storming of the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, recent court papers indicate, raising questions about how much federal investigators were able to learn from them about the violent mob attack both before and after it took place. The existence of the informants came to light over the past few days in a flurry of veiled court filings by defense lawyers for five members of the Proud Boys who are set to go on trial next month on seditious conspiracy charges connected to the Capitol attack.” POLICY CORNER RAIL STRIKE LATEST — “Railroad unions struggle to get rebellious workers to ‘yes’ on contracts,” by Eleanor Mueller SBF SPEAKS — SAM BANKMAN-FRIED, the fallen crypto billionaire, sat down with NYT’s David Yaffe-Bellany for a rollicking interview in the face of federal investigations into his FTX empire. “You would’ve thought that I’d be getting no sleep right now, and instead I’m getting some,” he told NYT. “It could be worse.” Bankman-Fried also In the interview, “declined to discuss the prospect of prison time. ‘People can say all the mean things they want about me online,’ he said. ‘In the end, what’s going to matter to me is what I’ve done and what I can do.’” HOW WE GOT HERE — “Is the FTX crash Gensler’s fault — or did it prove he’s right?” by Protocol’s Benjamin Pimentel: “The SEC chair has been criticized for failing to offer regulatory clarity. But the crisis vindicates his approach to the controversial industry, others say.” WAR IN UKRAINE THE VIEW FROM THE U.S. — “U.S. scrambles to reassure Ukraine after Milley comments on negotiations,” by Alex Ward, Lara Seligman and Erin Banco — “C.I.A. Director Warns Russian Counterpart Against Using Nuclear Weapons,” by NYT’s Julian Barnes, Jim Tankersley and Edward Wong ON THE GROUND — “Witnesses recount detentions, torture, disappearances in occupied Kherson,” by WaPo’s Michael Miller and Anastacia Galouchka AMERICA AND THE WORLD WHAT TO WATCH — “The last G-20? That and other stuff to watch,” by Nahal Toosi: “The world’s economic leaders have as many differences as commonalities, and a war is adding to the fractures.” FOR YOUR RADAR — “Navy, Coast Guard intercept boat with 180 tons of Iranian explosive material headed to Yemen,” by NBC’s Courtney Kube BEYOND THE BELTWAY THE MIGRANT FLIGHTS — “New documents show top DeSantis official coordinating with ‘Perla’ over migrant flights,” by Gary Fineout and David Kihara in Tallahassee — “Florida judge dismisses lawsuit against DeSantis migrant flights on technical grounds,” by Andrew Atterbury in Tallahassee MEDIAWATCH WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED — “‘There’s Always A Risk With Him Of Being Trolled’: A Donald Trump 2024 Bid Will Test If The Media’s Learned Anything Since 2016,” by Vanity Fair’s Charlotte Klein: “As news outlets turn toward Mar-a-Lago this week for ‘a very big announcement,’ journalists talked to Vanity Fair about the challenges of covering the twice-impeached former president—and avoiding the pitfalls. ‘“Trump speaks at a rally” is no longer a story,’ said one reporter.”
| | | | Less than one month to go to our POLITICO Live’s Sustainable Future Week! From November 29 to December 1, we will delve into climate geopolitics, the circular economy, green energy, mobility, and tech. Limited spots to join us in Brussels for exclusive closed-door debates and networking moments with top policymakers and industry leaders. Find out who is joining us and register today . | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Scott Brown is now a girls basketball coach . Jon Ossoff may have found the best way to unite Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin . Liz Cheney trolled Kari Lake . PLAYBOOK REAL ESTATE SECTION — “Ivana Trump’s NYC Townhouse, Decked Out in Gold and Animal Print, Asks $26.5 Million,” by WSJ’s Katherine Clarke MEDIA MOVE — Nancy Barnes is now editor of The Boston Globe. She previously was SVP for news and editorial director at NPR. Full announcement FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Jessica Floyd is taking over as executive director at the Hub Project. She previously was president at American Bridge and is a Hub Project and DCCC IE alum. — The Sine Institute of Policy & Politics at American University is announcing its 2023 spring fellows: Bill de Blasio, Doug Ducey, Mimi Walters, Alida Garcia, Terence Samuel and Anna Deavere Smith. The Sine Institute is also welcoming David Rubenstein and Horacio Rozanski as distinguished lecturers. — Luke Hilgemann is joining the International Order of T. Roosevelt as executive director. He previously was CEO of Americans for Prosperity and Hunter Nation. STAFFING UP — Brendan Cohen is now director of digital strategy at the Department of Commerce. He is the former deputy platforms director at the White House. … John Kraus is joining HHS as deputy assistant secretary for public affairs/public health. He previously was comms director for Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.). He is taking over from Bill Hall, who is transitioning to become senior adviser to the assistant secretary for public affairs for strategic communications. TRANSITIONS — Shana Mansbach is now speechwriter and senior adviser to the secretary at the State Department. She most recently was deputy director of comms for Pelosi and is an Obama State Department alum. … Chad Metzler is now federal government relations director at Land O’Lakes. He was previously a special assistant to the president for legislative affairs on the Senate team at the White House. … Madeleine Westerhout is now executive director for operations at American Global Strategies. She most recently was executive assistant to the CEO of Starch Creative and is a Trump White House and RNC alum. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.) … Fox News’ John Roberts ... AP’s Zeke Miller … Jen Palmieri … USDA’s Xochitl Torres Small … Joe Sandler … Amanda Renteria … former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson … Asha Rangappa … Robert Draper … Gail Gitcho … WaPo’s Greg Miller … Molly O’Toole … Bill Signer of the Carmen Group … John Easton … Augie McGinnity … Jennifer Jones … Adam Snider … CNN’s Laura Bernardini … Elliott Phaup of the Office of the National Cyber Director … Alexandra Lippman … Davan Maharaj … Matthew Fried … Jim Boyle … Helen Brosnan … CFPB’s Joe Valenti … Sarah Loudon Novascone … FT’s Silvia Sciorilli Borrelli … Ryan Miner … Zach Bauer … Aaron Sege … Shannon-Elisabeth O’Hare (21) Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misidentified the British royal who celebrated a birthday. He is now King Charles.
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