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Presented by The American Petroleum Institute (API): The unofficial guide to official Washington. | | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
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President Biden delivers remarks on preserving and protecting American democracy at Union Station in Washington, D.C. on Nov. 2, 2022. | Francis Chung/E&E News/POLITICO | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | Every ad has been cut. Every speech has been delivered. Every poll has been taken. And now we wait for the voters to decide. Needless to say, the stakes are high. Inflation is at a 40-year peak, abortion rights are on the ballot, rising interest rates are stoking recession fears and election deniers are on the cusp of taking office. But no one has more riding on the outcome than JOE BIDEN. Throughout all the headwinds he has faced in the two years and one day since he clinched the presidency, he had House and Senate majorities and experienced congressional leaders backing him up. Now that backstop is seriously at risk. A Republican House threatens to Roto-Root his administration with subpoenas while turning routine spending bills into high-stakes standoffs. A GOP Senate could compound the misery, hamstringing his ability to appoint judges, ambassadors and Cabinet officials. So how is Bidenworld facing this moment of reckoning? By essentially arguing that, whatever happens, it could have been much worse. The overwhelming sense of confidence from the summer has given way to expectations management, with Biden advisers telling Playbook they are feeling cautiously optimistic (about the Senate) while preparing for the worst (in the House). For all the Democratic fretting about a lack of a cohesive midterm message, they argue that the White House did its job: They executed a policy agenda that gave candidates more than enough to campaign on, giving them a fighting chance in what was destined to be an uphill battle. As one Biden campaign alum told us last night: “Usually the president's party gets absolutely destroyed. It’s usually catastrophic. Often they are avoiding the president’s agenda. If you look at what Dems are running on — it’s the president’s agenda. They’re all embracing it.” The aide isn’t wrong. Biden’s agenda has stayed resilient in polling, and it’s far from the drag that, say, the Affordable Care Act was on Democrats in 2010. The problem for Biden is that while his agenda hasn’t become an albatross for his party, reality has. Some stories to read while you twiddle your thumbs and wait for results: — NYT: “As Midterms Near, Biden Faces a Nation as Polarized as Ever,” by Peter Baker: “The presidency he envisioned, one where he presided over a moment of reconciliation, is not the presidency he has gotten. He thought that if he could simply govern well, everything would work out, which in hindsight strikes some around him as shockingly naïve if somewhat endearing.” — Bloomberg: “Inflation-Focused Voters Defy Biden’s Bid to Change the Subject,” by Nancy Cook: “Biden, who usually appears jovial in public but is not shy about flashing his temper in front of his West Wing aides, took out his frustration on National Economic Council Director BRIAN DEESE in meetings, according to three sources familiar with those discussions.” — WaPo: “Biden’s future closely tied to midterm outcome,” by WaPo’s Toluse Olorunnipa: “The president’s advisers insist his decision on whether to run for reelection will not be affected by Tuesday’s results, but a Republican wave could immediately challenge Biden’s ability to govern. Many GOP candidates have refused to say if they will accept an election loss, raising the prospect of a wave of challenges across the country, colored by unfounded fraud claims.” — POLITICO: “GOP activists and candidates set stage to claim elections they lose are stolen,” by Heidi Przybyla in Phoenix: “The guidance to GOP voters echoes what Trump did in 2020, when Democrats were expected to vote in large numbers through the mail given concerns about the pandemic. Trump built a campaign around delegitimizing mail-in ballots and even tried to stop them from being counted, kicking off a flood of baseless legal challenges and even a draft executive order for the military to seize voting machines.” YOUR ELECTION HEADQUARTERS — POLITICO’s interactives team has built a brand new results hub for Election Day — including a new feature allowing you to add favorite races to a dashboard that follows you throughout our website, alerting you to key updates as they happen. There’s a ton of other great new features — including a live chat right on the results page and a scoreboard tracking all of Trump’s endorsed candidates — and you can check them all out here . RACES TO WATCH — POLITICO’s politics team has been laser-focused on every aspect of the midterms for months now. This is their Super Bowl, their World Series, their Beyoncé concert. So where will those lasers be focused tonight? We asked a few of our ace colleagues to share two races they have their eyes on — one that could portend an especially good night for Republicans, and another where we might see evidence of Democrats beating expectations. Where to find a gathering GOP wave: — Jessica Piper: MI-03. “If Democrats can’t win this district, which went for Biden by 8 points and where Rep. PETER MEIJER lost a primary to Trump-endorsed JOHN GIBBS, it is going to be a rough night.” — Zach Montellaro: MI-GOV. “Democratic Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER has led fairly consistently, and has all the built in advantages of an incumbent. … If the magic crystal ball shakes out and shows that Whitmer lost, probably not a good night for the other [Democratic] governors in a close election.” — Elena Schneider: VA-07. “If Democratic Rep. ABIGAIL SPANBERGER gets swept away in a seat Biden won in 2020, it means Republicans could build a more than two-dozen-seat margin by the end.” — David Siders: NY-17. “We’ll know Dems are in for a miserable night if SEAN PATRICK MALONEY goes down in New York.” Where to find Dem resilience: — Elena: NC-13. “It’s the exact mix of suburban-exurban communities that Democrats won and held in the Trump era. If Democrat WILEY NICKEL, a state senator, can beat Republican BO HINES, a Trump acolyte, then that's a good sign for Democrats across the rest of the House map.” — Jessica: MT-01. “RYAN ZINKE’s scandals are probably not enough to sink him in this new district, the less conservative of Montana’s two. But a good night for Democrats would mean triumphing over weak candidates in slight Trump districts like this one.” — Zach: AZ-GOV. “Republican KARI LAKE had (very narrowly) led Democrat KATIE HOBBS for a bit. But if Hobbs wins? Good sign for Democratic governors in general, and probably the close Senate race in the state, too.” — David: OH-SEN. “Where to look for any sign they’re defying the odds? If TIM RYAN pulls the upset in Ohio.” WATCH LIKE A PRO — “POLITICO's hour-by-hour guide to watching election night,” by Steve Shepard Good Election Day morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line and tell us how you’re managing your nerves today: Rachael Bade , Eugene Daniels , Ryan Lizza .
| | | | A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API): America faces a mismatch between available energy supply and growing demand that is putting upward pressure on prices. API's 10-Point Policy Plan offers long-term policy solutions to fix this imbalance and restore U.S. energy leadership. A Rystad study found that implementing a set of federal policies could spur nearly $200 billion in direct investment, generate over 225,000 jobs by 2035 and provide consumers relief with more U.S. natural gas, oil, CCUS and hydrogen supplies. | | | | 
| Sophisticated political observers — like you, dear Playbook reader! — know very well that vote-counting is rarely a one-night affair in America anymore. Tightly contested races, the rise of mail voting, inconsistent and sometimes incoherent state laws, as well as potential runoffs, recounts and lawsuits can all converge to turn Election Day into Election Week — as happened in 2020, 2018, and plenty of election cycles before that. Still, with misinformation rampant and denialism on the rise, elections officials are taking no chances, warning voters, campaigns and reporters to keep their expectations in check. Our Zach Montellaro reports this morning on the messages those officials are sending, hoping to fend off doubts, disputes or worse. Those officials include secretaries of state in key swing jurisdictions such as Michigan and Pennsylvania. Some are hampered by state laws limiting the pre-counting of mail ballots; others are airing concerns about conspiracy theories and threats of violence. Even hardcore political junkies might not know some of the vote-counting vagaries that could shape the coming days. For one, Zach reminded Playbook last night that while many states report mail, early-voting and Election Day ballots separately, they don’t necessarily report them in the same order. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, for instance, will likely report the bulk of their mail ballots last — meaning, if the 2020 pattern holds, Republican candidates will likely start with a big lead that will be whittled as mail ballots are reported in. “But the reverse is true in Arizona, where the first big tranche of votes will be a sizable chunk of mail ballots,” Zach said. “Dems will likely start in the lead there, and GOP candidates will be the ones playing catch-up.” BIG PICTURE CLOSING TIME — The two men atop their respective parties closed out the midterm campaign season on Monday night in friendly territory — Biden in Maryland and Trump in Ohio — as they delivered their closing messages, largely sticking to their tried-and-true topics. Biden, appearing in support of gubernatorial candidate WES MOORE, “painted a grim illustration of America under Republican control, warning once more that American governance was under attack,” our colleagues Myah Ward and Chris Cadelago write . “Our lifetimes are going to be shaped by what happens in the next year to three years,” Biden said. “It’s going to shape what the next couple decades look like.” Meanwhile, Trump stumped for GOP Senate candidate J.D. VANCE, where he urged voters to deliver “a humiliating rebuke to the radical left in this election,” per WaPo’s John Wagner and Mariana Alfaro . But he didn’t stop there. Trump also used the rally stage to lash out at Speaker NANCY PELOSI, whom he called an “animal” for impeaching him twice, Olivia Olander writes . The comment comes less than two weeks after Pelosi’s husband, PAUL PELOSI, was brutally attacked at their San Francisco home. — “Emboldened GOP makes closing pitch as Democrats try to head off big losses,” by WaPo’s Colby Itkowitz, Annie Linskey and Hannah Knowles — “Abortion, Inflation and Democracy Dominate as Candidates Make Final Appeals,” NYT FLOTUS FILES — “Jill Biden’s last, relentless push to boost vulnerable Democrats,” by WaPo’s Jada Yuan: “She is descending onto tougher races than her husband, in states where animosity toward Democrats is high, such as the razor-thin race of Sen. MARK KELLY in Arizona, or two unexpected battlegrounds on Long Island. It is a testament to her popularity, as the most requested surrogate in the administration, and her ability to track well with Democrats without being toxic to swing voters or Republicans.” WEATHER REPORT — “Election weather: Snow heading for Nevada as tropical storm bears down on Florida,” by Steve Shepard DOJ DROPS IN — “Justice Dept. dispatching Election Day monitors to 64 jurisdictions,” by WaPo’s Perry Stein, Emma Brown and Beth Reinhard POLL POSITION — “Pollsters sweat another Election Day reckoning,” by Steve Shepard, featuring the latest numbers from the 10 tightest Senate races across the country ABORTION ON THE BALLOT — “10 races that will shape abortion access in the states,” by Alice Miranda Ollstein and Megan Messerly THE RIPPLE EFFECT — “Specter of midterm wipeout threatens Dem plans to shake up presidential primaries,” by Elena Schneider BATTLE FOR THE SENATE BY THE NUMBERS — OpenSecrets tallied up the top five most expensive Senate races of the cycle, tallying the money spent by candidates and outside groups. The states should come as no surprise, but the numbers are staggering. ( h/t the Philly Inquirer’s Jonathan Tamari ) 1) Pennsylvania: $312,131,203 2) Georgia: $254,668,614 3) Arizona: $202,332,538 4) Nevada: $186,750,730 5) Wisconsin: $185,811,066 MASTERS OF HIS FATE — “Arizona's GOP Senate Candidate Masters is Noncommittal on Supporting McConnell as Leader,” by WSJ’s Eliza Collins: “[BLAKE] MASTERS, an ally of venture capitalist PETER THIEL, said in an interview Monday that, if he wins the Senate contest, he would prefer a conservative candidate challenge [Senate Minority Leader MITCH] McCONNELL to lead the party in the Senate. ‘I certainly think we need new leadership,’ he said.” KEYS TO THE KEYSTONE — “John Fetterman’s Pa. Senate campaign is suing to have undated and misdated ballots counted,” by the Philly Inquirer’s Jonathan Lai and Jeremy Roebuck: “There will likely be tens of thousands of undated and wrongly dated ballots rejected statewide under that [state Supreme Court] ruling. Because mail ballots are so disproportionately used by Democrats over Republicans, that will likely mean thousands, if not tens of thousands, of net votes for Fetterman that are rejected.” BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE BIG ON BIDEN — “Many Vulnerable Democratic Candidates See Biden as Risky. Not This Lawmaker,” by Bloomberg’s Akayla Gardner: Rep. MIKE LEVIN (D-Calif.), locked in a toss-up race, “welcomed Biden to a pair of events late last week — one of the few personal appearances Biden has made for any vulnerable House Democrat.” How Levin sees it: ““He was a terrific messenger for all the accomplishments of these past two years. … The pros so overwhelmingly outweighed the cons, in terms of getting out to vote, turning out Democrats that historically may or may not vote in the midterm but vote in a presidential election.”
| | | | A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API):   America faces growing energy challenges. America’s energy industry has a plan to provide relief to families, strengthen national security and strengthen our economy. | | | | | BIDEN’S TUESDAY: The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 9:30 a.m.
VP KAMALA HARRIS’ TUESDAY: The VP will participate in political radio interviews at 11 a.m. and 4:30 p.m.
THE HOUSE and THE SENATE are out. | | | | | | What is the global reaction to the midterm elections? Join POLITICO reporters Suzanne Lynch and Ryan Heath for a live post-Election Day exchange on what the results mean for America’s allies and partners, in Europe and beyond. Register for the Transatlantic Briefing Call on Nov. 9, 11 a.m. ET. | | | | | PHOTOS OF THE DAY
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President Joe Biden speaks during a campaign rally in Bowie, Md., on Monday, Nov. 7. | Bryan Woolston/AP Photo | | 
Former President Donald Trump dances after speaking at a campaign rally in Vandalia, Ohio, on Monday, Nov. 7. | Michael Conroy/AP Photo | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | CONGRESS PELOSI SPEAKS — Nancy Pelosi sat down for her first interview since the attack on her husband at their San Francisco home, telling CNN’s Anderson Cooper that the traumatic incident would have an impact on her political future. “During Monday’s interview, Cooper asked Pelosi if she would confirm that she has made a decision, one way or another, about what she would do, noting that there has ‘been a lot of discussion about whether you’d retire if Democrats lose the House.’ “The speaker said the ‘decision will be affected about what happened the last week or two,’ prompting Cooper to ask, ‘Will your decision be impacted by the attack in any way?’ ‘Yes,’ Pelosi said,” per CNN’s Clare Foran . Pelosi also disclosed new details about the attack, Paul’s recovery and how she was woken up by Capitol Police officers at 5 a.m. in D.C. when she was told of the situation. “For me this is really the hard part because Paul was not the target and he’s the one who is paying the price,” Pelosi told CNN. “He was not looking for Paul, he was looking for me.” — Related read: “With her political future unclear, Nancy Pelosi stares down another midterm,” by WaPo’s Paul Kane and Marianna Sotomayor: “Those who have spent years around her give simple advice to those asking about her future: have fun guessing, because she doesn’t offer up those details freely.” KNOWING JEFF MILLER — “The election is about to turn this Kevin McCarthy ally into the king of K Street,” by Hailey Fuchs: “[N]o one on K Street is as close to Rep. Kevin McCarthy as [lobbyist Jeff] Miller. … The two met when Miller was in high school working as a Republican Party intern and McCarthy, 10 years his senior, was a district field rep for a California congressman. By the time McCarthy was bidding to lead the Republican conference back in 2015, Miller had the lawmaker’s ear. And he’s remained a steadfast ally, close confidant, travel companion, helpful fundraiser, and political consigliere ever since.” TRUMP CARDS MORE ON TRUMP’S NON-ANNOUNCEMENT — NYT’s Maggie Haberman : “Throughout Monday, Republicans who had pressing election-eve work to do instead spent their time trading text messages and anxious calls about whether Mr. Trump was poised to animate Democratic and Republican voters alike as they prepared to vote on Election Day by putting himself front and center. … “Among their concerns: The chances that Mr. Trump would be blamed for Republican defeats in some contests would only increase if he were to make himself the center of the national conversation on the eve of the election.” — WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf and Josh Dawsey : “Republican leaders succeeded in talking Trump out of announcing by telling him it would get buried under election news and he’d get more attention later, people familiar with the discussions said. Trump is scheduled to interview staff later this week for the nascent campaign. … “Trump has been determined in recent weeks to get credit for the midterm results should Republicans do well, and according to advisers, he has grown frustrated watching the large crowds and energy for Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS, whom he views as a threat for the 2024 nomination. He has also watched as some would-be rivals have grown increasingly aggressive about running in 2024, and wants to force people to support him, advisers say.” JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH AT THE OATH KEEPERS TRIAL — “Oath Keepers Leader Points Finger at Colleagues in Sedition Trial,” by NYT’s Alan Feuer: “It is rare for a defendant, especially one of his prominence, to take the witness stand, but [STEWART] RHODES, who holds a law degree from Yale, has been visibly confident in putting forward several intersecting arguments. He spent much of the afternoon sparring with a prosecutor, KATHRYN RAKOCZY. Ms. Rakoczy’s questions seemed designed to both poke holes in the details of his account and to chip away at his broader credibility.” JUDICIARY SQUARE SCOTUS WATCH — “Supreme Court Seems Poised to Streamline Challenges to Agency Power,” by NYT’s Adam Liptak and Ephrat Livni: “A majority of the justices seemed prepared to say that people and companies subject to agencies’ enforcement actions should not have to wait until administrative proceedings are completed before they can raise at least some constitutional objections to the agencies’ structures in federal trial courts.”
| | | | A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API):   Nearly 9 in 10 Americans support producing energy in America vs. overseas. Policy choices matter. See our plan. | | | WAR IN UKRAINE WAR REPORT — “Russia’s heavy casualties in Ukraine spark outcry and rare official response,” by WaPo’s Mary Ilyushina and Annabelle Timsit THE VIEW FROM EUROPE — “Even as Challenges Mount, Europeans Stick by Ukraine,” by NYT’s Jason Horowitz and Catherine Porter AMERICA AND THE WORLD FOR YOUR RADAR — “Officials: U.S. aid worker shot dead in Baghdad in rare attack,” by AP’s Qassim Abdul-Zahra REPORT CARD — “Climate change threatening ‘things Americans value most,’ U.S. report says,” by WaPo’s Brady Dennis, Chris Mooney and Steven Mufson: “Climate change is unleashing ‘far-reaching and worsening’ calamities in every region of the United States, and the economic and human toll will only increase unless humans move faster to slow the planet’s warming, according to a sprawling new federal report released Monday.” AT THE CLIMATE CONFAB — “‘A Reason to Act Faster’: World Leaders Meet on Climate Amid Other Crises,” by NYT’s Somini Sengupta BEYOND THE BELTWAY HEADS UP — “Justice Dept. watchdog probing Mass. U.S. attorney,” by AP’s Alanna Durkin Richer and Michael Balsamo: “The Justice Department’s inspector general has opened an investigation of the top federal prosecutor in Massachusetts, prompted by U.S. Attorney Rachel Rollins’ appearance at a political fundraiser featuring first lady Jill Biden, The Associated Press has learned. … “The inspector general’s office is focusing on Rollins’ attendance at the Democratic National Committee event in July as well as her use of her personal cellphone to conduct official business, according to two people briefed on the investigation, which has been underway for weeks.” MUSK READS SO MUCH FOR THE PUBLIC SQUARE — “Musk discusses putting all of Twitter behind a paywall,” by Platformer’s Casey Newton: “One such plan might allow everyone to use Twitter for a limited amount of time each month but require a subscription to continue browsing, the person said.” IN CASE YOU’RE CONFUSED — “What Is Mastodon and Why Are People Leaving Twitter for It?” by NYT’s Kalley Huang
| | | | DON’T MISS POLITICO’S 2nd ANNUAL DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/16: The United States is facing a defining moment in the future of its defense, national security and democratic ideals. The current conflicts and developments around the world are pushing Washington to reshape its defense strategy and how it cooperates with allies. Join POLITICO for our second annual defense summit, “At a Crossroads: America’s Defense Strategy” on November 16 in person at the Schuyler DC or join online to hear keynote interviews and panels discussing the road ahead for America’s national security. REGISTER HERE . | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | SPOTTED at a party on Monday night at David and Katherine Bradley’s house for Steve Case’s new book “The Rise of the Rest” ( $21.99 ): Sens. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) and Mark Warner (D-Va.), Jean Case, Don Graham and Amanda Bennett, Mary Louise Kelly, Dafna Linzer, David Leonhardt, Edward Luce and Niamh King, Dave McCormick, Juleanna Glover, Don Baer, Russ Ramsey, Bob Barnett and Rita Braver, David Brooks, Cathy Merrill Williams, Sylvia Burwell, Ruth Marcus and Jon Leibowitz, Soroush Shehabi, Margaret Carlson, Adrienne Arsht, Scott Simon, Steve Clemons, Charlie Rivkin, Emily Lenzner, John Delaney and Michael Haft. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The Bipartisan Policy Center is expanding and restructuring its Democracy Program to “strengthen the foundations that sustain representative democracy.” The program includes six initiatives and BPC will release reports and convene experts over the course of the next two years in anticipation of the 2024 election season. MEDIA MOVE — Jessica Sibley is joining Time as CEO, per WSJ . She previously was COO at Forbes. ENGAGED — Jaclyn Neuman, senior government affairs adviser at Shopify, and Connor Barrett, senior consultant at REI Systems, got engaged on Saturday near the Signers' Memorial in D.C. The couple met in May 2016 and went for ice cream at Thomas Sweet in Georgetown for their first date. Pic ... Another pic — Doug Molof, director for government affairs at Center for American Progress and a Lloyd Doggett alum, and Elizabeth Fassbender, assistant director at the College of American Pathologists, got engaged over the weekend at their home in D.C. The two met in September 2020 and had their first (socially-distanced) date at Barcelona Wine Bar. Pic … Another pic WEEKEND WEDDING — Tyler Lewis, deputy program director at USGLC, and Haleah Cassell, senior event manager at Washington Speakers Bureau, got married Saturday at the 9th Street Abbey in St. Louis, Mo. The two met at USGLC in 2018 and live in Alexandria with their dog, Murphy. Pic WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Amanda Thayer, VP for communications and public affairs at Global Strategy Group, and Eric Heidenberger, partner at DC Restaurant Group, on Wednesday welcomed Tyler Thayer Heidenberger. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.) … ABC’s David Muir … Blackstone’s Wayne Berman … Holland & Knight’s Leon Fresco … WaPo’s Tory Newmyer … POLITICO’s Roger Jeannotte and Barbara Van Tine … Matt Sandgren of Innovative Policy … Amazon’s Erin Cohan … Council of State Governments Justice Center’s Jay Nelson … Ira Magaziner … Johanny Adames of the Latino Victory Project … AARP’s John Hishta … Weston Loyd … Kelsey Suter of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner … Courtney Stamm … Latham and Watkins’ Christopher Martin … Bob Jones … Charlotte Law … former FEMA administrator Michael Brown … Richard Socarides … Laurie Moskowitz … Anshu Siripurapu … Shana Broussard of the Federal Election Commission … Ken Carwell of Chicago Adaptive Sports Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
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